William Lane
@williamjtlane.bsky.social
Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis
'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis
Views my own
Writes at https://thepartyanimal.substack.com/
'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis
Views my own
Writes at https://thepartyanimal.substack.com/
Pinned
Is Labour's Support Draining Out of the South?
Only a year on from a stunning political upset in the South East, Labour’s support appears to be draining away incredibly fast. Is this trend reversible, or are Labour on course for a major reversal?
open.substack.com
NEW ARTICLE
Well I promised a deep electoral dive for Labour's Conference special, and here it is!
Read about the ongoing fall of Labour's 2024 success in the South of England, and what that could mean for a potential Lib-Lab pact in 2029.
open.substack.com/pub/williamj...
Well I promised a deep electoral dive for Labour's Conference special, and here it is!
Read about the ongoing fall of Labour's 2024 success in the South of England, and what that could mean for a potential Lib-Lab pact in 2029.
open.substack.com/pub/williamj...
This This 1000x This.
They've already lost! And lost *badly*!
We've had non-white heads of government across all the nations of GB! Every great office of state has had a non-white holder! We've had a muslim Mayor of London for almost ten years!
This is a reaction to successful integration.
They've already lost! And lost *badly*!
We've had non-white heads of government across all the nations of GB! Every great office of state has had a non-white holder! We've had a muslim Mayor of London for almost ten years!
This is a reaction to successful integration.
A country where Sadiq Khan can lead London, Humza Yousaf can lead Scotland, and Rishi Sunak can lead Britain is a country where the racists had *lost*. So much of this vicious bile has come directly after that and almost no one seems to draw the connection
November 22, 2025 at 2:24 PM
This This 1000x This.
They've already lost! And lost *badly*!
We've had non-white heads of government across all the nations of GB! Every great office of state has had a non-white holder! We've had a muslim Mayor of London for almost ten years!
This is a reaction to successful integration.
They've already lost! And lost *badly*!
We've had non-white heads of government across all the nations of GB! Every great office of state has had a non-white holder! We've had a muslim Mayor of London for almost ten years!
This is a reaction to successful integration.
I feel this in my bones.
Veilguard's story is the kind of thing that's mostly just bad on its own, but managed to gum up the entire setting to the point that the series probably needs a reboot.
It's a Rise of Skywalker/Halo 5 level situation, but unlike those DA:O would be quite easy to remake...
Veilguard's story is the kind of thing that's mostly just bad on its own, but managed to gum up the entire setting to the point that the series probably needs a reboot.
It's a Rise of Skywalker/Halo 5 level situation, but unlike those DA:O would be quite easy to remake...
Been reminded of Dragon Age: The Veilguard and I think what I find so deflating about it is not just that the story botches the setting, it’s that it burns through basically every potential future storyline whilst botching it
November 22, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I feel this in my bones.
Veilguard's story is the kind of thing that's mostly just bad on its own, but managed to gum up the entire setting to the point that the series probably needs a reboot.
It's a Rise of Skywalker/Halo 5 level situation, but unlike those DA:O would be quite easy to remake...
Veilguard's story is the kind of thing that's mostly just bad on its own, but managed to gum up the entire setting to the point that the series probably needs a reboot.
It's a Rise of Skywalker/Halo 5 level situation, but unlike those DA:O would be quite easy to remake...
Reposted by William Lane
Sun coming through the archway tonight at sunset. Have a fabulous weekend everyone.
November 21, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Sun coming through the archway tonight at sunset. Have a fabulous weekend everyone.
Yeah I think this has been the most shocking development of the 2010s/2020s.
The idea that you could get a sizeable chunk (if not an outright majority) of the middle class vote by being economically left wing would have got you laughed out of town even 20 years ago.
The idea that you could get a sizeable chunk (if not an outright majority) of the middle class vote by being economically left wing would have got you laughed out of town even 20 years ago.
And this is intimately linked to what I got completely wrong in autumn 2015, which is I just did not think you could get enough middle class votes with a leftwing economic pitch, which has in different ways been disproved by 2017, 2024 and in failure since 2024.
November 21, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Yeah I think this has been the most shocking development of the 2010s/2020s.
The idea that you could get a sizeable chunk (if not an outright majority) of the middle class vote by being economically left wing would have got you laughed out of town even 20 years ago.
The idea that you could get a sizeable chunk (if not an outright majority) of the middle class vote by being economically left wing would have got you laughed out of town even 20 years ago.
I never realised that the first openly gay elected official in the UK was a Liberal!
It does make sense given the Liberal Party's support for social issues in the 20th century. Annoyingly I can't find who he won his seat from, but given that it was in Durham it was probably a Labour councillor.
It does make sense given the Liberal Party's support for social issues in the 20th century. Annoyingly I can't find who he won his seat from, but given that it was in Durham it was probably a Labour councillor.
Mel Metcalf, Chair of Durham Pride, said: "The Reform-led Council may have taken our Pride flags down at County Hall, but Sam Green’s undeniable legacy will live on in the hearts and minds of everyone attending Durham Pride 2026."
Chair of Durham Pride helps unveil plaque for UK's first openly gay elected politician
Mel Metcalf, Chair of Durham Pride, was invited to represent the annual Pride event in north east England at the unveiling of a Blue Plaque for Liberal Democrats Councillor Sam Green, the UK’s first o...
www.scenemag.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 11:21 AM
I never realised that the first openly gay elected official in the UK was a Liberal!
It does make sense given the Liberal Party's support for social issues in the 20th century. Annoyingly I can't find who he won his seat from, but given that it was in Durham it was probably a Labour councillor.
It does make sense given the Liberal Party's support for social issues in the 20th century. Annoyingly I can't find who he won his seat from, but given that it was in Durham it was probably a Labour councillor.
Reposted by William Lane
London is wonderful.
A friend from US has been staying in London this week - sight-seeing, culture, bars and restaurants. Central London has been buzzing. It’s been great and I’ve been proud of it. So there
November 21, 2025 at 9:51 AM
London is wonderful.
Great day in Parliament supporting the important work of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Respiratory Health.
Our chair Jim Shannon organised a Westminister Hall debate for World COPD Day, raising awareness of a disabling condition suffered by up to 2.3 million people in the UK.
Our chair Jim Shannon organised a Westminister Hall debate for World COPD Day, raising awareness of a disabling condition suffered by up to 2.3 million people in the UK.
November 20, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Great day in Parliament supporting the important work of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Respiratory Health.
Our chair Jim Shannon organised a Westminister Hall debate for World COPD Day, raising awareness of a disabling condition suffered by up to 2.3 million people in the UK.
Our chair Jim Shannon organised a Westminister Hall debate for World COPD Day, raising awareness of a disabling condition suffered by up to 2.3 million people in the UK.
This is a great article by a new Labour thinker who is well worth subscribing to!
There is a deep tradition of liberal (and Liberal) thought within Labour, running all the way back to the 1920s. If given the space to breathe, this tradition could help Labour recover electorally and politically.
There is a deep tradition of liberal (and Liberal) thought within Labour, running all the way back to the 1920s. If given the space to breathe, this tradition could help Labour recover electorally and politically.
Finally got round to setting up a Substack! And I've published the piece I shared with a few of you last month - on the intellectual crisis within Labour's liberal wing.
thenewsocialdemocrat.substack.com/p/intellectu...
thenewsocialdemocrat.substack.com/p/intellectu...
Intellectually adrift, where does Labour’s liberal wing go from here?
The tradition of Gaitskell, Crosland, Jenkins, Blair and Brown stands at a crossroads.
thenewsocialdemocrat.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:55 PM
This is a great article by a new Labour thinker who is well worth subscribing to!
There is a deep tradition of liberal (and Liberal) thought within Labour, running all the way back to the 1920s. If given the space to breathe, this tradition could help Labour recover electorally and politically.
There is a deep tradition of liberal (and Liberal) thought within Labour, running all the way back to the 1920s. If given the space to breathe, this tradition could help Labour recover electorally and politically.
Reposted by William Lane
👏 UK on US peace plan: Russia can end war by withdrawing its troops
UK on US peace plan: Russia can end war by withdrawing its troops – Reuters
The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has stated that the country supports US President Donald Trump's plan for peace in Ukraine, saying that Russia can end the war immediately by withdr...
www.pravda.com.ua
November 20, 2025 at 6:57 AM
👏 UK on US peace plan: Russia can end war by withdrawing its troops
This is both immoral and utterly unworkable.
EHRC guidance leaked and it's so bad even The Times can't put a positive spin on it
www.thetimes.com/article/82ee...
www.thetimes.com/article/82ee...
Trans people could be banned from single-sex spaces based on how they look
The Times has seen the equalities watchdog’s final guidance, which Whitehall figures fear Bridget Phillipson is delaying to avoid a political backlash
www.thetimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is both immoral and utterly unworkable.
New Substack!
Over the weekend I travelled to the Co-op Party Conference in central london. Read my reflections below to find out what's happening inside Britain's fourth largest parliamentary party, and what this could mean for the Labour gov.
thepartyanimal.substack.com/p/the-people...
Over the weekend I travelled to the Co-op Party Conference in central london. Read my reflections below to find out what's happening inside Britain's fourth largest parliamentary party, and what this could mean for the Labour gov.
thepartyanimal.substack.com/p/the-people...
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
New Substack!
Over the weekend I travelled to the Co-op Party Conference in central london. Read my reflections below to find out what's happening inside Britain's fourth largest parliamentary party, and what this could mean for the Labour gov.
thepartyanimal.substack.com/p/the-people...
Over the weekend I travelled to the Co-op Party Conference in central london. Read my reflections below to find out what's happening inside Britain's fourth largest parliamentary party, and what this could mean for the Labour gov.
thepartyanimal.substack.com/p/the-people...
While I understand this perspective I disagree, progressive does have a meaning in UK politics that is distinct from the US.
That's because it refers to the broad swathe of centre-left liberals that exist across the three main left parties (Lab, Lib, Grn). It's mainly used in a cross-party context.
That's because it refers to the broad swathe of centre-left liberals that exist across the three main left parties (Lab, Lib, Grn). It's mainly used in a cross-party context.
It is very sad that we are adopting the US term 'progressives'. It doesn't actually mean anything here
November 19, 2025 at 11:32 AM
While I understand this perspective I disagree, progressive does have a meaning in UK politics that is distinct from the US.
That's because it refers to the broad swathe of centre-left liberals that exist across the three main left parties (Lab, Lib, Grn). It's mainly used in a cross-party context.
That's because it refers to the broad swathe of centre-left liberals that exist across the three main left parties (Lab, Lib, Grn). It's mainly used in a cross-party context.
Reposted by William Lane
Many congratulations @joshbabarinde.bsky.social 🌻💚
Eastbourne MP Josh Babarinde proposes in House of Commons - BBC News
Eastbourne Lib Dem MP Josh Babarinde says he "couldn't be happier" after he popped the question.
share.google
November 17, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Many congratulations @joshbabarinde.bsky.social 🌻💚
Reposted by William Lane
“We welcome migrants, we don’t scapegoat them".
How Keir Starmer promised Labour MPs and members he would lead his party on immigration
How Keir Starmer promised Labour MPs and members he would lead his party on immigration
November 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
“We welcome migrants, we don’t scapegoat them".
How Keir Starmer promised Labour MPs and members he would lead his party on immigration
How Keir Starmer promised Labour MPs and members he would lead his party on immigration
This is absolutely true, but i do wonder if the move away from traditional (lol) public facing social media and towards internal group chats may reverse this trend, at least within small social structures (and let's be real, most old school party pamphlets and journals had a very small reach).
I think an underrated 'why has politics become more anti-intellectual' is that as more 'chat among activists' takes place in the new third space for speech, social media, more and more conversations are of the 'Steiner's counter attack was a glorious success!' variety.
Used to have this argument with fellow Cons and, ultimately, unless and until I am a member of the Cabinet, I'm undo no obligation not to publicly oppose dumb things my party does.
November 17, 2025 at 5:12 PM
This is absolutely true, but i do wonder if the move away from traditional (lol) public facing social media and towards internal group chats may reverse this trend, at least within small social structures (and let's be real, most old school party pamphlets and journals had a very small reach).
Reposted by William Lane
Reposted by William Lane
The murder rate in London is now the lowest in decades, perhaps centuries. (The Times)
November 16, 2025 at 1:27 PM
The murder rate in London is now the lowest in decades, perhaps centuries. (The Times)
Generally speaking, political types don't give the public enough credit for how easily they see through political gimmicks.
If you're putting forward a policy you don't believe in just to shut people up, those people will often recognise that as insincere pandering and get even madder about it.
If you're putting forward a policy you don't believe in just to shut people up, those people will often recognise that as insincere pandering and get even madder about it.
Good thread this. I think people are much smarter than they are given credit for, and they intuit that the government’s actual view is “what can we say to make these people shut up about immigration?”
Which then takes you back into the familiar territory of pleasing nobody - winding up the left for a policy that potentially doesn’t make that much difference in practice
November 16, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Generally speaking, political types don't give the public enough credit for how easily they see through political gimmicks.
If you're putting forward a policy you don't believe in just to shut people up, those people will often recognise that as insincere pandering and get even madder about it.
If you're putting forward a policy you don't believe in just to shut people up, those people will often recognise that as insincere pandering and get even madder about it.
Depending on how the next few years shake out, I do think this is one of those charts that could end up looking very important in hindsight.
Aggregate Result of the 160 Council By-Elections (for 163 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
November 14, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Depending on how the next few years shake out, I do think this is one of those charts that could end up looking very important in hindsight.
Reposted by William Lane
So as of now I'm going to the @coopparty.party.coop party conference on Saturday and Sunday this week!
Drop a line if you're going and fancy a chat, It's always great to meet new people interested in devolution, community policy and reviving local areas :)
Drop a line if you're going and fancy a chat, It's always great to meet new people interested in devolution, community policy and reviving local areas :)
November 11, 2025 at 5:36 PM
So as of now I'm going to the @coopparty.party.coop party conference on Saturday and Sunday this week!
Drop a line if you're going and fancy a chat, It's always great to meet new people interested in devolution, community policy and reviving local areas :)
Drop a line if you're going and fancy a chat, It's always great to meet new people interested in devolution, community policy and reviving local areas :)
I also do think there is a rhetorical argument here as well.
Everyone is so fed up with the funk around the economy and society at the moment. A government willing to stand up and make a dramatic change would get a better (and a stress *better* not *good*) hearing on tax rises than one that fudges.
Everyone is so fed up with the funk around the economy and society at the moment. A government willing to stand up and make a dramatic change would get a better (and a stress *better* not *good*) hearing on tax rises than one that fudges.
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Issue for Labour now isn't whether they break their manifesto pledge on tax. It is whether they do so in a way which is blatant, honest but sustainable - or whether they do so by a myriad of complex and likely insufficient means whilst arguing they are not.
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
November 14, 2025 at 11:28 AM
I also do think there is a rhetorical argument here as well.
Everyone is so fed up with the funk around the economy and society at the moment. A government willing to stand up and make a dramatic change would get a better (and a stress *better* not *good*) hearing on tax rises than one that fudges.
Everyone is so fed up with the funk around the economy and society at the moment. A government willing to stand up and make a dramatic change would get a better (and a stress *better* not *good*) hearing on tax rises than one that fudges.
The other thing is that Labour have already raised National Insurance! They've *already* broken their tax pledge, so while raising Income Tax wouldn't be popular, I dont see why it'd been seen as any greater a manifesto breaking pledge than what they've already done.
I think Luke's right: breaking tax pledge is foundational. But I also think 'raising tax revenues in any way BUT raising headline rate, & thinking ppl will buy that's not a breach' is delusional. The pledge was understood as 'Labour will fix things & it won't cost me'. You're breaking it, so own it
Too much analysis was still treating breaking the tax pledge as “just another unpopular decision” rather than recognising consequence of breaking a promise which defined an election for the public. If is correct the govt won’t now break it they may have avoided a deeply scarring loss of public trust
November 14, 2025 at 10:57 AM
The other thing is that Labour have already raised National Insurance! They've *already* broken their tax pledge, so while raising Income Tax wouldn't be popular, I dont see why it'd been seen as any greater a manifesto breaking pledge than what they've already done.
Watched Lightyear (2022) with my flatmate tonight, and for the first half I was quite surprised at its negative reception. It's really quite ambitious for an animated sci fi film, and reframes classic Pixar themes in interesting ways.
Then the 'twist' happens, and I thought "oh dear, I get it now".
Then the 'twist' happens, and I thought "oh dear, I get it now".
November 13, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Watched Lightyear (2022) with my flatmate tonight, and for the first half I was quite surprised at its negative reception. It's really quite ambitious for an animated sci fi film, and reframes classic Pixar themes in interesting ways.
Then the 'twist' happens, and I thought "oh dear, I get it now".
Then the 'twist' happens, and I thought "oh dear, I get it now".
I made this point to both the Lib Dem and Lab canvassers that have been round in the last week (not gonna lie it is nice to live in an area that's actually politically competitive!).
Ultimately I know that both parties would have very limited funds to help people like me, so what else can they do?
Ultimately I know that both parties would have very limited funds to help people like me, so what else can they do?
This corrodes support for the state because for most people, your local authority that only provides support to people in crisis and intermittently does waste collection. It also I think makes for more expensive and unhelpful support for people *in crisis conditions*.
November 13, 2025 at 10:44 PM
I made this point to both the Lib Dem and Lab canvassers that have been round in the last week (not gonna lie it is nice to live in an area that's actually politically competitive!).
Ultimately I know that both parties would have very limited funds to help people like me, so what else can they do?
Ultimately I know that both parties would have very limited funds to help people like me, so what else can they do?
While I do think there is something to the idea that social media and the internet has had a direct impact on how people think, I also wonder how people who think the rise of the modern far right is tied directly to it think fascism developed in the 20s and 30s, when the hip new tech was radio.
Not sure about that. A lot of the discourse on the impact of social media and digital technologies indulges in a kind of golden ageism about a pre-internet era from the 1950s-1980s that could also be highly violent and polarised. There are continuities there many are not comfortable with now
November 13, 2025 at 4:03 PM
While I do think there is something to the idea that social media and the internet has had a direct impact on how people think, I also wonder how people who think the rise of the modern far right is tied directly to it think fascism developed in the 20s and 30s, when the hip new tech was radio.