William Lane
@williamjtlane.bsky.social
Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis
'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis
Views my own
Writes at https://thepartyanimal.substack.com/
'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis
Views my own
Writes at https://thepartyanimal.substack.com/
Pinned
As we are having an influx of new users, I thought I'd update my starter pack on All Party Parliamentary Groups!
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
'Peace in our time'
'A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing'
Chamberlain's words are still quoted heavily today for a reason. Any Euro politician that was seen to sell out Greenland would immediately become a pariah.
'A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing'
Chamberlain's words are still quoted heavily today for a reason. Any Euro politician that was seen to sell out Greenland would immediately become a pariah.
I think the White House badly underestimates the strength of the pan-European folk memory of 1930s appeasement, and how deep it still cuts. I suppose this is what happens when you learn in school that WW2 started in 1941 in Hawaii.
January 18, 2026 at 4:08 PM
'Peace in our time'
'A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing'
Chamberlain's words are still quoted heavily today for a reason. Any Euro politician that was seen to sell out Greenland would immediately become a pariah.
'A quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing'
Chamberlain's words are still quoted heavily today for a reason. Any Euro politician that was seen to sell out Greenland would immediately become a pariah.
Reposted by William Lane
Strong statement this.
Surreal times. But here we are.
Surreal times. But here we are.
January 18, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Strong statement this.
Surreal times. But here we are.
Surreal times. But here we are.
It's really notable that Farage seems unable to deal with any kind of serious heat on him.
He stopped turning up for PMQs for the same reason.
If he gets a reputation as a bottler it could seriously damage him.
He stopped turning up for PMQs for the same reason.
If he gets a reputation as a bottler it could seriously damage him.
Farage is apparently 'under the weather' today and unable to talk about the US threats to the UK and Europe over Greenland.
Which is unfortunate.
Which is unfortunate.
January 18, 2026 at 10:44 AM
It's really notable that Farage seems unable to deal with any kind of serious heat on him.
He stopped turning up for PMQs for the same reason.
If he gets a reputation as a bottler it could seriously damage him.
He stopped turning up for PMQs for the same reason.
If he gets a reputation as a bottler it could seriously damage him.
"When the herd moves, It moves"
January 17, 2026 at 11:42 PM
"When the herd moves, It moves"
I do wonder if Farage will come to regret accepting Jenrick into the fold.
The real issue for Reform isn't becoming seen as the 'same old Tories', as that might help detoxify them.
It is instead becoming seen as retirement home for political failures, rather than a fresh new face in politics.
The real issue for Reform isn't becoming seen as the 'same old Tories', as that might help detoxify them.
It is instead becoming seen as retirement home for political failures, rather than a fresh new face in politics.
Letters to the Times on Jenrick’s defection to Reform.
They are very much not impressed. And make the point that switching parties without triggering a by-election is not democratic.
So he can shove his bullshit sense of ‘public duty’ where the sun don’t shine. Or take his choice to the voters.
They are very much not impressed. And make the point that switching parties without triggering a by-election is not democratic.
So he can shove his bullshit sense of ‘public duty’ where the sun don’t shine. Or take his choice to the voters.
January 16, 2026 at 8:22 AM
I do wonder if Farage will come to regret accepting Jenrick into the fold.
The real issue for Reform isn't becoming seen as the 'same old Tories', as that might help detoxify them.
It is instead becoming seen as retirement home for political failures, rather than a fresh new face in politics.
The real issue for Reform isn't becoming seen as the 'same old Tories', as that might help detoxify them.
It is instead becoming seen as retirement home for political failures, rather than a fresh new face in politics.
It's often forgotten that the modern Conservative and Unionist Party dates from the merger of the Conservatives and Liberal Unionists in 1912.
One advantage the British Right has had since the 1880s is in uniting against a divided left, although before now the Cons were always the largest party.
One advantage the British Right has had since the 1880s is in uniting against a divided left, although before now the Cons were always the largest party.
1890s to 1920s - Conservative and Unionist parties allied
1930s to 1960s - Conservatives allied with National Liberals
2017-2019 - Conservatives agreement with DUP
2020s - Conservative and Reform in alliance?
Not unusual.
1930s to 1960s - Conservatives allied with National Liberals
2017-2019 - Conservatives agreement with DUP
2020s - Conservative and Reform in alliance?
Not unusual.
January 15, 2026 at 12:46 PM
It's often forgotten that the modern Conservative and Unionist Party dates from the merger of the Conservatives and Liberal Unionists in 1912.
One advantage the British Right has had since the 1880s is in uniting against a divided left, although before now the Cons were always the largest party.
One advantage the British Right has had since the 1880s is in uniting against a divided left, although before now the Cons were always the largest party.
Reposted by William Lane
Good that the City of London is doing this, and about time, too.
City to fight disinformation that undermines London on world stage
Government, police and cyber experts point to surge in social media posts spreading fake narratives about safety
www.ft.com
January 14, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Good that the City of London is doing this, and about time, too.
Having now finished Hero of Ages I stand by my thread, with the addendum that Sanderson really does know how to stick the landing, the ending was genuinely very good.
In fact HoA is the second time I've read a middling Sanderson finale that was saved in the last 100 pages (after Wind and Truth).
In fact HoA is the second time I've read a middling Sanderson finale that was saved in the last 100 pages (after Wind and Truth).
As I get towards the ending of Hero of Ages, I think I'm beginning to realise my broader issue with the Mistborn trilogy.
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
January 13, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Having now finished Hero of Ages I stand by my thread, with the addendum that Sanderson really does know how to stick the landing, the ending was genuinely very good.
In fact HoA is the second time I've read a middling Sanderson finale that was saved in the last 100 pages (after Wind and Truth).
In fact HoA is the second time I've read a middling Sanderson finale that was saved in the last 100 pages (after Wind and Truth).
I've noticed this too, and I think it leads to people downplaying/ignoring the Libs as they aren't as buzzy online (although Josh Barbarinde seems to be trying to change that).
You'd never guess from discussions on here that the Lib Dems are currently polling above the Greens with YouGov.
You'd never guess from discussions on here that the Lib Dems are currently polling above the Greens with YouGov.
January 13, 2026 at 2:58 PM
I've noticed this too, and I think it leads to people downplaying/ignoring the Libs as they aren't as buzzy online (although Josh Barbarinde seems to be trying to change that).
You'd never guess from discussions on here that the Lib Dems are currently polling above the Greens with YouGov.
You'd never guess from discussions on here that the Lib Dems are currently polling above the Greens with YouGov.
Of those I've played:
1. Dragon Age: Origins
2. Dark Souls
3. ES: Oblivion
4. Wolfenstein: The New Order
5. Baldur's Gate 3 (Unfinished)
6. Resident Evil 4
7. Fallout: New Vegas
8. Paper's Please (Unfinished)
9. Inscryption (Unfinished)
10. Half Life 2
11. Dishonored
12. Mass Effect (Unfinished)
1. Dragon Age: Origins
2. Dark Souls
3. ES: Oblivion
4. Wolfenstein: The New Order
5. Baldur's Gate 3 (Unfinished)
6. Resident Evil 4
7. Fallout: New Vegas
8. Paper's Please (Unfinished)
9. Inscryption (Unfinished)
10. Half Life 2
11. Dishonored
12. Mass Effect (Unfinished)
Of the 31 games that won the 'now' votes, rank as many as you can. That could be just voting for your favourite, or a top 3, or 10, or just go mad and rank all 31.
I will NOT count ties
I will NOT count the same game in multiple ranks
If you need help deciding: czeckd.github.io/preference-r...
I will NOT count ties
I will NOT count the same game in multiple ranks
If you need help deciding: czeckd.github.io/preference-r...
January 13, 2026 at 2:34 PM
Of those I've played:
1. Dragon Age: Origins
2. Dark Souls
3. ES: Oblivion
4. Wolfenstein: The New Order
5. Baldur's Gate 3 (Unfinished)
6. Resident Evil 4
7. Fallout: New Vegas
8. Paper's Please (Unfinished)
9. Inscryption (Unfinished)
10. Half Life 2
11. Dishonored
12. Mass Effect (Unfinished)
1. Dragon Age: Origins
2. Dark Souls
3. ES: Oblivion
4. Wolfenstein: The New Order
5. Baldur's Gate 3 (Unfinished)
6. Resident Evil 4
7. Fallout: New Vegas
8. Paper's Please (Unfinished)
9. Inscryption (Unfinished)
10. Half Life 2
11. Dishonored
12. Mass Effect (Unfinished)
Reposted by William Lane
Not in the English DNA to brag but London is the greatest city in the world and it isn't even a close competition even after the obvious issues like affordability.
January 12, 2026 at 6:21 PM
Not in the English DNA to brag but London is the greatest city in the world and it isn't even a close competition even after the obvious issues like affordability.
Reposted by William Lane
Liz Kendall speaking in the House of Commons now: "it is not just an affront to decent society; it is illegal ... this is child sexual abuse"
"It is insulting to victims to say: you can still have this service if you are willing to pay. It is monetising abuse"
"It is insulting to victims to say: you can still have this service if you are willing to pay. It is monetising abuse"
January 12, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Liz Kendall speaking in the House of Commons now: "it is not just an affront to decent society; it is illegal ... this is child sexual abuse"
"It is insulting to victims to say: you can still have this service if you are willing to pay. It is monetising abuse"
"It is insulting to victims to say: you can still have this service if you are willing to pay. It is monetising abuse"
The fact that Farage is losing to *Polanski* in the head-to-heads really does show the level of anti-Farage feeling in the country, especially given that Badenoch beats Polsanki easily.
2029 will turn on whether Farage's core support base is enough to ride him through a divided opposition.
2029 will turn on whether Farage's core support base is enough to ride him through a divided opposition.
Who would make the best PM?
Starmer 36% vs Farage 29%
Starmer 28% vs Badenoch 28%
Starmer 21% vs Polanski 19%
Badenoch 31% vs Farage 21%
Badenoch 28% vs Davey 25%
Badenoch 28% vs Polanski 22%
Davey 33% vs Farage 27%
Davey 23% vs Starmer 19%
Davey 20% vs Polanski 15%
Polanski 28% vs Farage 27%
Starmer 36% vs Farage 29%
Starmer 28% vs Badenoch 28%
Starmer 21% vs Polanski 19%
Badenoch 31% vs Farage 21%
Badenoch 28% vs Davey 25%
Badenoch 28% vs Polanski 22%
Davey 33% vs Farage 27%
Davey 23% vs Starmer 19%
Davey 20% vs Polanski 15%
Polanski 28% vs Farage 27%
January 12, 2026 at 5:23 PM
The fact that Farage is losing to *Polanski* in the head-to-heads really does show the level of anti-Farage feeling in the country, especially given that Badenoch beats Polsanki easily.
2029 will turn on whether Farage's core support base is enough to ride him through a divided opposition.
2029 will turn on whether Farage's core support base is enough to ride him through a divided opposition.
As I get towards the ending of Hero of Ages, I think I'm beginning to realise my broader issue with the Mistborn trilogy.
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
January 12, 2026 at 1:20 AM
As I get towards the ending of Hero of Ages, I think I'm beginning to realise my broader issue with the Mistborn trilogy.
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
I've seen people say that it feels like a prototype for The Stormlight Archive, and that is definitely true in some respects (Vin = Shallan + Lift, Elend = Dalinar + Adolin)...
Yeah this has been my position since the first discussions about Trident came up in 2024.
A pretty decent general assumption is to never bet against human ingenuity, especially in a crisis.
Plus while Europe may not have the cash the US does, there's always money for *really* important projects.
A pretty decent general assumption is to never bet against human ingenuity, especially in a crisis.
Plus while Europe may not have the cash the US does, there's always money for *really* important projects.
Wouldn't bet the farm on them being unable to replace it. Tho it will be laughably expensive and replacement will be measured in years, not days
January 11, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Yeah this has been my position since the first discussions about Trident came up in 2024.
A pretty decent general assumption is to never bet against human ingenuity, especially in a crisis.
Plus while Europe may not have the cash the US does, there's always money for *really* important projects.
A pretty decent general assumption is to never bet against human ingenuity, especially in a crisis.
Plus while Europe may not have the cash the US does, there's always money for *really* important projects.
Reposted by William Lane
Given we are having a bit of a surge (or are likely to) and starter packs are a great innovation but hard to find...
I've created a new one I'll direct people to. Largely people who are sound, smart ajd active - who enrich my experiance here and make me think (and prove me wrong)
I've created a new one I'll direct people to. Largely people who are sound, smart ajd active - who enrich my experiance here and make me think (and prove me wrong)
January 10, 2026 at 12:11 AM
Given we are having a bit of a surge (or are likely to) and starter packs are a great innovation but hard to find...
I've created a new one I'll direct people to. Largely people who are sound, smart ajd active - who enrich my experiance here and make me think (and prove me wrong)
I've created a new one I'll direct people to. Largely people who are sound, smart ajd active - who enrich my experiance here and make me think (and prove me wrong)
Reposted by William Lane
Made one of them there starter packs, of people I find fun, interesting, intelligent, etc. on this site. Mostly UK pols, a smattering of geopol stuff, Georgia and Ukraine. If you're not there, it's not because I hate you; I just didn't see your name before my dinner was ready.
go.bsky.app/5z2cs4R
go.bsky.app/5z2cs4R
January 10, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Made one of them there starter packs, of people I find fun, interesting, intelligent, etc. on this site. Mostly UK pols, a smattering of geopol stuff, Georgia and Ukraine. If you're not there, it's not because I hate you; I just didn't see your name before my dinner was ready.
go.bsky.app/5z2cs4R
go.bsky.app/5z2cs4R
This is exactly what Red Plenty was about, with Spufford effectively arguing that the USSR giving up on optimal pricing and a computer run economic system after the fall of Kruschev was the end of the USSR as an political experiment, and its final step to becoming just another authoritarian regime.
January 10, 2026 at 8:51 PM
This is exactly what Red Plenty was about, with Spufford effectively arguing that the USSR giving up on optimal pricing and a computer run economic system after the fall of Kruschev was the end of the USSR as an political experiment, and its final step to becoming just another authoritarian regime.
As we are having an influx of new users, I thought I'd update my starter pack on All Party Parliamentary Groups!
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
January 10, 2026 at 7:44 PM
As we are having an influx of new users, I thought I'd update my starter pack on All Party Parliamentary Groups!
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
This is a must for anyone interested in British politics, APPGs perform a vital function in bringing together MPs and Peers interested in specific policy topics.
go.bsky.app/55EmCFG
Every so often you come across something that makes you think 'wow, the human race really does get around, doesn't it'.
January 9, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Every so often you come across something that makes you think 'wow, the human race really does get around, doesn't it'.
I have two theories as to why this is, the first being that what a lot of left-wing voters want is outcomes driven, while Labour (and a lot of the left) are process driven.
I.e. when a left wing voters says 'nationalise the railways', what they really want is cheaper tickets.
Outcomes > Process
I.e. when a left wing voters says 'nationalise the railways', what they really want is cheaper tickets.
Outcomes > Process
Another good newsletter from @stephenkb.bsky.social .
Once again, what stands out to me is how this government is really quite left-wing but in a way that fails to appeal to (and in some cases actively deters) most actual left-wing voters.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Once again, what stands out to me is how this government is really quite left-wing but in a way that fails to appeal to (and in some cases actively deters) most actual left-wing voters.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
No, Reform hasn’t peaked
Still, the Conservative Party could recover some support by leveraging its pro-business instincts and intellectual offer
giftarticle.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:54 PM
I have two theories as to why this is, the first being that what a lot of left-wing voters want is outcomes driven, while Labour (and a lot of the left) are process driven.
I.e. when a left wing voters says 'nationalise the railways', what they really want is cheaper tickets.
Outcomes > Process
I.e. when a left wing voters says 'nationalise the railways', what they really want is cheaper tickets.
Outcomes > Process
Very interesting results here, and it confirms my suspicion that East Anglia doesn't fit nicely into either 'The South' or 'The Midlands'.
Where do the North and South of England begin?
Based on the answers of 46,000 English people about where they live, the southern border of “the North” is a line roughly from Shrewsbury to Grimsby, while the northern border of “the South” is a line roughly from the Severn to Great Yarmouth
Based on the answers of 46,000 English people about where they live, the southern border of “the North” is a line roughly from Shrewsbury to Grimsby, while the northern border of “the South” is a line roughly from the Severn to Great Yarmouth
January 9, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Very interesting results here, and it confirms my suspicion that East Anglia doesn't fit nicely into either 'The South' or 'The Midlands'.
Reposted by William Lane
The regime has shut down the internet nationwide and disabled phone lines, cutting communications across the country. Protester Telegram channels are dead. Looks like a total blackout.
January 8, 2026 at 8:12 PM
The regime has shut down the internet nationwide and disabled phone lines, cutting communications across the country. Protester Telegram channels are dead. Looks like a total blackout.
Reposted by William Lane
Kurdish militia groups have entered Iran and are fighting security forces.
January 8, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Kurdish militia groups have entered Iran and are fighting security forces.