Tony Climate
@tonyclimate.bsky.social
Physics doesn't care about your politics. I have solar panels too.
Pinned
Tony Climate
@tonyclimate.bsky.social
· Mar 4
USA Temperature: can I sucker you?
Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., als…
tamino.wordpress.com
Can I sucker you? Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show?
tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08/u...
tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08/u...
Reposted by Tony Climate
Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
August 28, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.
Example: refuting one sentence.
Reposted by Tony Climate
Climate models since the 1970s nailed it—most predicted global warming almost exactly as it happened.
August 18, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Climate models since the 1970s nailed it—most predicted global warming almost exactly as it happened.
Reposted by Tony Climate
August 19, 2025 at 2:10 AM
Reposted by Tony Climate
Amid the unremitting bad news, something positive!
2025 will only be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in the instrumental record. 🙄
2025 will only be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in the instrumental record. 🙄
August 9, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Amid the unremitting bad news, something positive!
2025 will only be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in the instrumental record. 🙄
2025 will only be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in the instrumental record. 🙄
Reposted by Tony Climate
As the hosepipe ban kicks in over parts of Reading we look at how this summer so far compares to the UK’s infamous hot, dry summer of 1976 in this week’s @unirdg-met.bsky.social blog:
blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...
blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...
How does the UK summer so far compare to the extreme hot, dry summer of 1976?
By Dr Laura Baker Senior NCAS Scientist in the Department of Meteorology As we come to the end of the third heatwave of 2025, and a third English water board has announced a hosepipe ban, more an…
blogs.reading.ac.uk
July 22, 2025 at 8:10 AM
As the hosepipe ban kicks in over parts of Reading we look at how this summer so far compares to the UK’s infamous hot, dry summer of 1976 in this week’s @unirdg-met.bsky.social blog:
blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...
blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...
Reposted by Tony Climate
Arctic Sea Ice Extent battling for record low....
July 24, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Arctic Sea Ice Extent battling for record low....
Reposted by Tony Climate
47 years of #Arctic sea ice thickness during the month of June... (updated through 2025)
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
July 27, 2025 at 3:16 PM
47 years of #Arctic sea ice thickness during the month of June... (updated through 2025)
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Reposted by Tony Climate
The "Ad Hoc Study Group on C02 and Climate" begins at Woods Hole from 23 to 27 and produces what is popularly known as the Charney Report.
tl;dr - if we keep on burning fossil fuels the world will warm by something between 1.5 and 3 degrees in 21st century.
allouryesterdays.info/2025/07/22/j...
tl;dr - if we keep on burning fossil fuels the world will warm by something between 1.5 and 3 degrees in 21st century.
allouryesterdays.info/2025/07/22/j...
July 23, 1979 - Charney Report meeting begins - All Our Yesterdays
Forty six years ago, on this day, July 23rd, 1979 Ad Hoc Study Group on C02 and Climate at Woods Hole from 23 to 27 “Charney Report” http://web.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/download/charney_report.pdf The...
allouryesterdays.info
July 22, 2025 at 10:06 PM
The "Ad Hoc Study Group on C02 and Climate" begins at Woods Hole from 23 to 27 and produces what is popularly known as the Charney Report.
tl;dr - if we keep on burning fossil fuels the world will warm by something between 1.5 and 3 degrees in 21st century.
allouryesterdays.info/2025/07/22/j...
tl;dr - if we keep on burning fossil fuels the world will warm by something between 1.5 and 3 degrees in 21st century.
allouryesterdays.info/2025/07/22/j...
Reposted by Tony Climate
On this day in 1987, a brilliant Calvin and Hobbes cartoon about climate change
allouryesterdays.info/2023/07/22/j...
allouryesterdays.info/2023/07/22/j...
July 23, 1987 - Calvin (and Hobbes) versus climate change! - All Our Yesterdays
Thirty six years ago, on this day, July 23, 1987, Calvin blames his mother, and her generation… The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 350.2ppm. As of 2023 it is 423ppm, but check here f...
allouryesterdays.info
July 23, 2025 at 8:41 AM
On this day in 1987, a brilliant Calvin and Hobbes cartoon about climate change
allouryesterdays.info/2023/07/22/j...
allouryesterdays.info/2023/07/22/j...
Reposted by Tony Climate
I'd like to introduce a new page on my website: U.S. climate indicator visuals (zacklabe.com/united-state...).
I only have a few basic variables so far, but I will be expanding this summer to add a range of metrics (e.g., ecological). I welcome suggestions! Hope this is useful, especially nowadays.
I only have a few basic variables so far, but I will be expanding this summer to add a range of metrics (e.g., ecological). I welcome suggestions! Hope this is useful, especially nowadays.
July 7, 2025 at 1:31 AM
I'd like to introduce a new page on my website: U.S. climate indicator visuals (zacklabe.com/united-state...).
I only have a few basic variables so far, but I will be expanding this summer to add a range of metrics (e.g., ecological). I welcome suggestions! Hope this is useful, especially nowadays.
I only have a few basic variables so far, but I will be expanding this summer to add a range of metrics (e.g., ecological). I welcome suggestions! Hope this is useful, especially nowadays.
Reposted by Tony Climate
🌊 The Arctic Ocean is losing dissolved oxygen 6x faster than the global average, driven by warm Atlantic water inflow and rapid Arctic warming
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Amplified warming accelerates deoxygenation in the Arctic Ocean - Nature Climate Change
Rapid warming of the global ocean and amplified Arctic warming will alter the ocean biogeochemistry. Here the authors show that Atlantic water inflow, and the subsequent subduction and circulation, is...
www.nature.com
July 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM
🌊 The Arctic Ocean is losing dissolved oxygen 6x faster than the global average, driven by warm Atlantic water inflow and rapid Arctic warming
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Tony Climate
Because Big Oil spent the last 50+ years blocking clean energy, more energy use now means more pollution.
But if we'd instead spent those years advancing tech to capture the sun's *virtually limitless, pollution-free energy,* it wouldn't matter how many dumb pictures of Baby JD Vance you generate.
But if we'd instead spent those years advancing tech to capture the sun's *virtually limitless, pollution-free energy,* it wouldn't matter how many dumb pictures of Baby JD Vance you generate.
Google’s emissions up 51% as AI electricity demand derails efforts to go green | Google - United Kingdom
Google’s carbon emissions have soared by 51% since 2019 as artificial intelligence hampers the tech company’s efforts to go green.
www.europesays.com
June 27, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Because Big Oil spent the last 50+ years blocking clean energy, more energy use now means more pollution.
But if we'd instead spent those years advancing tech to capture the sun's *virtually limitless, pollution-free energy,* it wouldn't matter how many dumb pictures of Baby JD Vance you generate.
But if we'd instead spent those years advancing tech to capture the sun's *virtually limitless, pollution-free energy,* it wouldn't matter how many dumb pictures of Baby JD Vance you generate.
Reposted by Tony Climate
#IPCC's 2022 #ClimateReport shows heatwaves in Europe will become more frequent, more intense & will last longer.
By 2050, about half of the European population may be exposed to high or very high risk of heat stress during summer.
➡️ bit.ly/IICpt13
By 2050, about half of the European population may be exposed to high or very high risk of heat stress during summer.
➡️ bit.ly/IICpt13
July 3, 2025 at 8:14 AM
#IPCC's 2022 #ClimateReport shows heatwaves in Europe will become more frequent, more intense & will last longer.
By 2050, about half of the European population may be exposed to high or very high risk of heat stress during summer.
➡️ bit.ly/IICpt13
By 2050, about half of the European population may be exposed to high or very high risk of heat stress during summer.
➡️ bit.ly/IICpt13
Reposted by Tony Climate
Starting to think the climate is changing
July 7, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Starting to think the climate is changing
Reposted by Tony Climate
👇🏽 Good but scary read - weather systems stalling amplifying extreme events 🌀🥵⛈️
"Extreme summer weather patterns have tripled since the 1950s" | Great piece in @upenn.edu's #PennToday on our recent @pnas.org article, providing critical context for the extreme heat we're seeing right now in North America and Europe: penntoday.upenn.edu/news/extreme...
Extreme summer weather patterns have tripled since the 1950s | Penn Today
New research led by Michael E. Mann links a surge in stalled jet stream events to human-driven climate change, with major implications for future heatwaves, wildfires, and floods.
penntoday.upenn.edu
June 23, 2025 at 11:03 PM
👇🏽 Good but scary read - weather systems stalling amplifying extreme events 🌀🥵⛈️
Reposted by Tony Climate
and here's a link to the study itself: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century | PNAS
We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over
the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent bor...
www.pnas.org
June 23, 2025 at 5:25 PM
and here's a link to the study itself: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Tony Climate
It's already #ShowYourStripes day in many places like New Zealand, Australia, Japan and Papua New Guinea.
All these countries are warming rapidly. Visit www.ShowYourStripes.info to find your warming stripes with 4 different designs.
Start a climate conversation online or with friends and family?
All these countries are warming rapidly. Visit www.ShowYourStripes.info to find your warming stripes with 4 different designs.
Start a climate conversation online or with friends and family?
June 20, 2025 at 3:56 PM
It's already #ShowYourStripes day in many places like New Zealand, Australia, Japan and Papua New Guinea.
All these countries are warming rapidly. Visit www.ShowYourStripes.info to find your warming stripes with 4 different designs.
Start a climate conversation online or with friends and family?
All these countries are warming rapidly. Visit www.ShowYourStripes.info to find your warming stripes with 4 different designs.
Start a climate conversation online or with friends and family?
Reposted by Tony Climate
Here's the latest comparison of global surface temperature observations (red) with IPCC climate model simulations (through March 2025, via @hausfath.bsky.social):
May 23, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Here's the latest comparison of global surface temperature observations (red) with IPCC climate model simulations (through March 2025, via @hausfath.bsky.social):
Reposted by Tony Climate
Emissions linked to Chevron... very likely caused between US $791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991–2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature
A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...
www.nature.com
May 4, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Emissions linked to Chevron... very likely caused between US $791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991–2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Tony Climate
THE FOUR STAGES OF PRO-FOSSIL EXPLOITATION OF MAJOR BLACKOUTS
[a thread with videos]
Stage 1: Guilt By Proximity - "any blackout that happens in a region with renewable energy must have been caused by renewable energy"
[we are in the later end of this stage -see, FT, Bloomberg (Blas), etc]
[a thread with videos]
Stage 1: Guilt By Proximity - "any blackout that happens in a region with renewable energy must have been caused by renewable energy"
[we are in the later end of this stage -see, FT, Bloomberg (Blas), etc]
May 2, 2025 at 7:02 AM
THE FOUR STAGES OF PRO-FOSSIL EXPLOITATION OF MAJOR BLACKOUTS
[a thread with videos]
Stage 1: Guilt By Proximity - "any blackout that happens in a region with renewable energy must have been caused by renewable energy"
[we are in the later end of this stage -see, FT, Bloomberg (Blas), etc]
[a thread with videos]
Stage 1: Guilt By Proximity - "any blackout that happens in a region with renewable energy must have been caused by renewable energy"
[we are in the later end of this stage -see, FT, Bloomberg (Blas), etc]
Reposted by Tony Climate
Happy Tuesday! How about an anti-Matt-Yglesias climate economics thread?
I'll start by saying "material prosperity" is not opposed to "reasoning backwards" from temperature targets — doing what we must NOW to halt global heating at a safe level will INCREASE Americans' material prosperity.
1/n
I'll start by saying "material prosperity" is not opposed to "reasoning backwards" from temperature targets — doing what we must NOW to halt global heating at a safe level will INCREASE Americans' material prosperity.
1/n
May 6, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Happy Tuesday! How about an anti-Matt-Yglesias climate economics thread?
I'll start by saying "material prosperity" is not opposed to "reasoning backwards" from temperature targets — doing what we must NOW to halt global heating at a safe level will INCREASE Americans' material prosperity.
1/n
I'll start by saying "material prosperity" is not opposed to "reasoning backwards" from temperature targets — doing what we must NOW to halt global heating at a safe level will INCREASE Americans' material prosperity.
1/n
Reposted by Tony Climate
With the first four months of the year now available, I estimate that 2025 is most likely to be the second warmest year on record at 1.52C in ERA5, with a ~8% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest and a ~25% chance of coming in at the third warmest after 2023:
May 5, 2025 at 8:05 PM
With the first four months of the year now available, I estimate that 2025 is most likely to be the second warmest year on record at 1.52C in ERA5, with a ~8% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest and a ~25% chance of coming in at the third warmest after 2023:
Reposted by Tony Climate
Anyone who says the fossil-fuel industry will contribute to decarbonization w funding and/or innovation should be laughed off the stage.
In the 2024 election, fossil-fuel companies & associated interests gave Trump somewhere between $75 and $450 million.
They knew what they were buying.
1/3
In the 2024 election, fossil-fuel companies & associated interests gave Trump somewhere between $75 and $450 million.
They knew what they were buying.
1/3
May 5, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Anyone who says the fossil-fuel industry will contribute to decarbonization w funding and/or innovation should be laughed off the stage.
In the 2024 election, fossil-fuel companies & associated interests gave Trump somewhere between $75 and $450 million.
They knew what they were buying.
1/3
In the 2024 election, fossil-fuel companies & associated interests gave Trump somewhere between $75 and $450 million.
They knew what they were buying.
1/3
Reposted by Tony Climate
Last week I was playing around with a new "tree ring plot" to visualize daily global temperature anomalies from ERA5.
I thought it would be neat to make a version of the plot for daily global absolute temperatures (rather than anomalies):
I thought it would be neat to make a version of the plot for daily global absolute temperatures (rather than anomalies):
April 29, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Last week I was playing around with a new "tree ring plot" to visualize daily global temperature anomalies from ERA5.
I thought it would be neat to make a version of the plot for daily global absolute temperatures (rather than anomalies):
I thought it would be neat to make a version of the plot for daily global absolute temperatures (rather than anomalies):
Reposted by Tony Climate
The Warming Stripes have now been extended downwards into the ocean and upwards into the stratosphere!
Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
April 30, 2025 at 11:08 AM
The Warming Stripes have now been extended downwards into the ocean and upwards into the stratosphere!
Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...