Mine the Market
@throughmid.bsky.social
Hedge fund PM/trader interested in all things macro.
Reposted by Mine the Market
"Elon stealing money triggers a bank run" is a fun path to consider for blowing up the economy
February 12, 2025 at 7:46 PM
"Elon stealing money triggers a bank run" is a fun path to consider for blowing up the economy
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Lmaoooooooo everyone and their mother talking about how “attractive” yields are at these levels.
For the MILLIONTH time. Yields need to start with a 7 or 8 handle to be compensated for being on the other side of the trade of a notorious grifter.
For the MILLIONTH time. Yields need to start with a 7 or 8 handle to be compensated for being on the other side of the trade of a notorious grifter.
*TRUMP SAYS DOGE EFFORT MAY HAVE FOUND FRAUD IN TREASURIES
*TRUMP SUGGESTS THAT MAY MEAN US DEBT OBLIGATIONS LOWER
GLWT
*TRUMP SUGGESTS THAT MAY MEAN US DEBT OBLIGATIONS LOWER
GLWT
February 9, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Lmaoooooooo everyone and their mother talking about how “attractive” yields are at these levels.
For the MILLIONTH time. Yields need to start with a 7 or 8 handle to be compensated for being on the other side of the trade of a notorious grifter.
For the MILLIONTH time. Yields need to start with a 7 or 8 handle to be compensated for being on the other side of the trade of a notorious grifter.
Reposted by Mine the Market
These dingdongs are juggling with sticks of dynamite.
February 9, 2025 at 10:30 PM
These dingdongs are juggling with sticks of dynamite.
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Hah the robots really are coming for your job
February 5, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Hah the robots really are coming for your job
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Humanitarian immigration decline to near zero (like in '17/'18) would make neutral payroll growth run rate below 100k per month given demographic trends.
February 4, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Humanitarian immigration decline to near zero (like in '17/'18) would make neutral payroll growth run rate below 100k per month given demographic trends.
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The vibe from a lot of sell side analysts today - or at least those working for US institutions - is very much early summer 2016 ‘in the end they won’t leave the customs union and they’ll probably find a way to stay in the single market’.
February 3, 2025 at 10:30 AM
The vibe from a lot of sell side analysts today - or at least those working for US institutions - is very much early summer 2016 ‘in the end they won’t leave the customs union and they’ll probably find a way to stay in the single market’.
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A genuine hearty LOL at this www.ft.com/content/9cc3...
January 31, 2025 at 11:49 AM
A genuine hearty LOL at this www.ft.com/content/9cc3...
Reposted by Mine the Market
I got deepseek 14B running locally on windows, at 7 tokens per sec on last gen gaming hardware. This model performs at par with OpenAI's pro $200/month service and is probably drawing a hundred watts max.
The AI capex bubble is toast
The AI capex bubble is toast
January 30, 2025 at 9:43 PM
I got deepseek 14B running locally on windows, at 7 tokens per sec on last gen gaming hardware. This model performs at par with OpenAI's pro $200/month service and is probably drawing a hundred watts max.
The AI capex bubble is toast
The AI capex bubble is toast
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Trump doesn’t get a Fed appointment until Kugler’s board term is over 12 months from now. There are two other expiring board seats in this Presidential term. When you add in regional Fed voters, hard to see him capturing the FOMC.
lol is Trump going to fuck with the Fed? please tell me he is, primarily because it's the maximum stove touching thing he could do right now
January 23, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Trump doesn’t get a Fed appointment until Kugler’s board term is over 12 months from now. There are two other expiring board seats in this Presidential term. When you add in regional Fed voters, hard to see him capturing the FOMC.
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Must be the bond vigilantes
UK GETS RECORD 119 BLN IN ORDERS FOR 2040 GILT SYNDICATION
January 21, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Must be the bond vigilantes
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Rachel Reeves is gonna get a big shock when the one person at the Treasury with a Bloomberg terminal eventually notices what has been happening in gilt markets
January 8, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Rachel Reeves is gonna get a big shock when the one person at the Treasury with a Bloomberg terminal eventually notices what has been happening in gilt markets
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You gotta love the irony in macro. Ignore the banks -they blow themselves up. Worry about inflation being too low, it hits 50-year highs. Ask for fiscal stimulus, now you cant rein it in. Core euro lectures the periphery for a decade, now they're the ones with the shit economies & unstable politics.
December 5, 2024 at 8:14 AM
You gotta love the irony in macro. Ignore the banks -they blow themselves up. Worry about inflation being too low, it hits 50-year highs. Ask for fiscal stimulus, now you cant rein it in. Core euro lectures the periphery for a decade, now they're the ones with the shit economies & unstable politics.
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lmfaooooooo
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
December 4, 2024 at 7:15 PM
lmfaooooooo
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
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The last time South Korea declared martial law US securities settled T+5
December 3, 2024 at 2:22 PM
The last time South Korea declared martial law US securities settled T+5
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VP thinks $ centrality is a burden that strengthens $; POTUS & UST want $ centrality 4 sanctions & surveillance, threaten tariffs against de$izers; consensus is sanctions strengthen $, worsening trade balance & import sub. efforts; but UST thinks strong $ reduces inflation impact of tariffs. Ok?
November 30, 2024 at 10:53 PM
VP thinks $ centrality is a burden that strengthens $; POTUS & UST want $ centrality 4 sanctions & surveillance, threaten tariffs against de$izers; consensus is sanctions strengthen $, worsening trade balance & import sub. efforts; but UST thinks strong $ reduces inflation impact of tariffs. Ok?
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“should you hike into inflation caused by a supply shock” is one of those questions that is supposed to reveal whether CBs are operating in the space of substantive (will hikes help?) or merely procedural (inflation = hike) rationality imo
Before COVID, there was a v strong consensus that central banks shouldn't hike in response to supply shocks. That seems to have splintered over the last couple of years, which is presumably why we are getting such different views on the appropriate response to tariffs
November 29, 2024 at 12:26 PM
“should you hike into inflation caused by a supply shock” is one of those questions that is supposed to reveal whether CBs are operating in the space of substantive (will hikes help?) or merely procedural (inflation = hike) rationality imo
Villeroy trying to save his country from the fiscal brink…
November 28, 2024 at 2:05 PM
Villeroy trying to save his country from the fiscal brink…
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The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure is out for October and it is 2.5%, up from 2.3% last month. This is the median of eight different measures over three different time horizons. (FWIW, this roughly tracks my sense of underlying inflation at the moment.)
November 27, 2024 at 8:22 PM
The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure is out for October and it is 2.5%, up from 2.3% last month. This is the median of eight different measures over three different time horizons. (FWIW, this roughly tracks my sense of underlying inflation at the moment.)
Reposted by Mine the Market
PCE report days are a good reminder that this remains an income-driven expansion.
Household nominal wage growth is the strongest in decades which is fueling continued strength in nominal demand even though the savings rate is stable and borrowing is muted.
Thread.
Household nominal wage growth is the strongest in decades which is fueling continued strength in nominal demand even though the savings rate is stable and borrowing is muted.
Thread.
November 27, 2024 at 1:09 PM
PCE report days are a good reminder that this remains an income-driven expansion.
Household nominal wage growth is the strongest in decades which is fueling continued strength in nominal demand even though the savings rate is stable and borrowing is muted.
Thread.
Household nominal wage growth is the strongest in decades which is fueling continued strength in nominal demand even though the savings rate is stable and borrowing is muted.
Thread.
Reposted by Mine the Market
1/5) Should we be worried about the deterioration in US labour market conditions? One important concept has been the #Sahm-Rule#. We look at it and argue in #MonthlyReport that US recessionary risks remain contained. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
November 27, 2024 at 4:21 PM
1/5) Should we be worried about the deterioration in US labour market conditions? One important concept has been the #Sahm-Rule#. We look at it and argue in #MonthlyReport that US recessionary risks remain contained. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
Schnabel bringing the 🌶️, finally someone speaking truth to the market. Lane is essentially aligned with her.
November 27, 2024 at 8:31 AM
Schnabel bringing the 🌶️, finally someone speaking truth to the market. Lane is essentially aligned with her.
EUR front-end trading poorly today and a surprising number of people asking “why?”… maybe the market actually flipped net long post PMI. Inflation data this week is pretty binary event; my lean is it comes in line and Dec ECB starts grinding back towards -25bps (currently -32bps).
November 26, 2024 at 2:55 PM
EUR front-end trading poorly today and a surprising number of people asking “why?”… maybe the market actually flipped net long post PMI. Inflation data this week is pretty binary event; my lean is it comes in line and Dec ECB starts grinding back towards -25bps (currently -32bps).
Lane waxing lyrical on the weak FX/imported inflation channel this morning put the front-end under pressure. Rightly so — market is way too excited about 50bp cuts. Short ERH5 outright or vs reds feels like the right tactical play given positioning cleanup post Friday PMI.
November 25, 2024 at 7:20 PM
Lane waxing lyrical on the weak FX/imported inflation channel this morning put the front-end under pressure. Rightly so — market is way too excited about 50bp cuts. Short ERH5 outright or vs reds feels like the right tactical play given positioning cleanup post Friday PMI.