Dom White
@domw.bsky.social
Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.
Reposted by Dom White
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
🤪
Fed's Miran: Widespread use of stablecoins could argue for lower Fed rates.
November 7, 2025 at 8:30 PM
🤪
Gotta say, I find it really interesting that some people still use Twitter/X and believe that they're completely immune from the incentives that it constructs.
Human trafficking.
Rupert Lowe makes more money from using Elon Musk’s website than any other MP.
There is money to be made from mass deportations and talking about mass deportations.
Rupert Lowe makes more money from using Elon Musk’s website than any other MP.
There is money to be made from mass deportations and talking about mass deportations.
November 7, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Gotta say, I find it really interesting that some people still use Twitter/X and believe that they're completely immune from the incentives that it constructs.
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
November 7, 2025 at 8:37 AM
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Reposted by Dom White
The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally.
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
November 6, 2025 at 4:41 PM
The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally.
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare
I'd disagree with George here. They're very useful for creating trading opportunities for people who know the data are junk.
Challenger job cuts are not helpful macro data.
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I'd disagree with George here. They're very useful for creating trading opportunities for people who know the data are junk.
Reposted by Dom White
Challenger job cuts are not helpful macro data.
November 6, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Challenger job cuts are not helpful macro data.
I am a think tank and the way to get the country out of its debt crisis is to subsidise Wolverhampton Wanderers FC to the tune of a few billion pounds.
Am I doing this right?
Am I doing this right?
November 6, 2025 at 9:18 AM
I am a think tank and the way to get the country out of its debt crisis is to subsidise Wolverhampton Wanderers FC to the tune of a few billion pounds.
Am I doing this right?
Am I doing this right?
The solution to a debt crisis? Leave the ECHR and deport 700,000 migrants, apparently.
Think-tank linked to Reform UK says Britain is heading for debt crisis on.ft.com/3Jy8hv0
Think-tank linked to Reform UK says Britain is heading for debt crisis
Former Tory minister Sir John Redwood and City executive Mark Dowding contribute to CFABB report
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:09 AM
The solution to a debt crisis? Leave the ECHR and deport 700,000 migrants, apparently.
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
November 5, 2025 at 8:42 PM
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
It would also be unusual for the President to bypass the authority of Congress, so ....
BESSENT SAYS WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR SUPREME COURT TO OVERRULE TARIFFS
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
It would also be unusual for the President to bypass the authority of Congress, so ....
Hot take: Donegal > Cornwall (quite comfortably)
‘The Irish landscape whispers tales of the past’: a trip beyond the blarney in far-flung Donegal
‘The Irish landscape whispers tales of the past’: a trip beyond the blarney in far-flung Donegal
Our writer explores the cliffs, beaches and villages of the Gaeltacht area of Donegal and sees the landscape afresh through the Irish language
www.theguardian.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Hot take: Donegal > Cornwall (quite comfortably)
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
It's kinda funny how often I see this being quoted as a substitute for the official (delayed) Q3 GDP data, missing the fact that it largely relies on the source GDP data that have also been delayed.
On November 3, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q3 2025 is 4.0%: bit.ly/32EYojR.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.
November 3, 2025 at 5:16 PM
It's kinda funny how often I see this being quoted as a substitute for the official (delayed) Q3 GDP data, missing the fact that it largely relies on the source GDP data that have also been delayed.
Reposted by Dom White
My whole book in a footnote right here
November 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
My whole book in a footnote right here
Bit of an odd article, this. The 'Sell America' trade was always a misleading narrative, but you can't adjudicate on this issue by comparing bond yields in local currency.
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Treasuries Rally Is Proving Trump’s ‘Sell America’ Critics Wrong
Despite the drumbeat of worries — from looming deficits to attacks on the Fed — US government debt secures its reign as the world’s most trusted asset.
www.bloomberg.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Bit of an odd article, this. The 'Sell America' trade was always a misleading narrative, but you can't adjudicate on this issue by comparing bond yields in local currency.
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
I believe the driver is commenting on the state of financial markets.
November 2, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I believe the driver is commenting on the state of financial markets.
Quite a revealing article, this. There’s clear recognition that exploiting chokepoints to gain leverage causes your trading partners to hedge the relationship. So why does this administration keep trying to do exactly that?
on.ft.com/4qDnN9m
on.ft.com/4qDnN9m
China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent
US Treasury secretary says Beijing can no longer use its critical minerals as a coercive tool
on.ft.com
November 1, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Quite a revealing article, this. There’s clear recognition that exploiting chokepoints to gain leverage causes your trading partners to hedge the relationship. So why does this administration keep trying to do exactly that?
on.ft.com/4qDnN9m
on.ft.com/4qDnN9m
<sigh>
Reeves plans tax raid on owners of expensive homes ft.trib.al/ZBQjlqo
Reeves plans tax raid on owners of expensive homes
Chancellor predicted to plump for ‘least worst option’ of creating higher council tax bands
ft.trib.al
October 31, 2025 at 9:15 PM
<sigh>
There are obvious measurement issues here. But putting that aside, is this a relevant metric?
October 31, 2025 at 8:03 PM
There are obvious measurement issues here. But putting that aside, is this a relevant metric?
Reposted by Dom White
Headphones on if you work in the offices above Cannon St station.
October 30, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Headphones on if you work in the offices above Cannon St station.
Good article from Chris, here.
It just reinforces the conclusion that tax increases are inevitable to fix the fiscal position and better to get them out of the way.
But that in turn means the govt needs to think a lot harder about how it can achieve growth. There’s no easy lever to pull here.
It just reinforces the conclusion that tax increases are inevitable to fix the fiscal position and better to get them out of the way.
But that in turn means the govt needs to think a lot harder about how it can achieve growth. There’s no easy lever to pull here.
I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
My column www.ft.com/content/f086...
October 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Good article from Chris, here.
It just reinforces the conclusion that tax increases are inevitable to fix the fiscal position and better to get them out of the way.
But that in turn means the govt needs to think a lot harder about how it can achieve growth. There’s no easy lever to pull here.
It just reinforces the conclusion that tax increases are inevitable to fix the fiscal position and better to get them out of the way.
But that in turn means the govt needs to think a lot harder about how it can achieve growth. There’s no easy lever to pull here.