Dom White
@domw.bsky.social
Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
November 7, 2025 at 8:37 AM
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
November 5, 2025 at 8:42 PM
This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).
Look what happens when you compare 10-year Treasury and Gilt returns in the same currency.
November 3, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Look what happens when you compare 10-year Treasury and Gilt returns in the same currency.
Quick chart for you, Jo
November 3, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Quick chart for you, Jo
I believe the driver is commenting on the state of financial markets.
November 2, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I believe the driver is commenting on the state of financial markets.
Headphones on if you work in the offices above Cannon St station.
October 30, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Headphones on if you work in the offices above Cannon St station.
Pretty much right on cue. Another series that appears to have suffered from residual seasonality in recent years.
October 28, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Pretty much right on cue. Another series that appears to have suffered from residual seasonality in recent years.
I'm here to present a gold BMW to help you through your day, @darioperkins.bsky.social
October 28, 2025 at 2:28 PM
I'm here to present a gold BMW to help you through your day, @darioperkins.bsky.social
The whole "Germany's economy is in awful shape" thing seems to have missed that domestic demand is growing pretty strongly, thanks very much.
October 21, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The whole "Germany's economy is in awful shape" thing seems to have missed that domestic demand is growing pretty strongly, thanks very much.
Apparently, “Bitcoin is a massive force in humanitarian/environmental action.” It’s a new one on me.
October 18, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Apparently, “Bitcoin is a massive force in humanitarian/environmental action.” It’s a new one on me.
It's amazing to me that the Treasury is talking about tax rises to compensate for productivity downgrades and all the while refusing to acknowledge the existence of these two charts.
October 15, 2025 at 9:56 AM
It's amazing to me that the Treasury is talking about tax rises to compensate for productivity downgrades and all the while refusing to acknowledge the existence of these two charts.
Well blow me down it turns out that Reform made campaign promises in the local elections that they either aren’t keeping or had no power to deliver.
www.ft.com/content/277c...
www.ft.com/content/277c...
October 5, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Well blow me down it turns out that Reform made campaign promises in the local elections that they either aren’t keeping or had no power to deliver.
www.ft.com/content/277c...
www.ft.com/content/277c...
Think you might be being a bit uncharitable. It’s not like he has a history of back-filling the logic to an answer that’s already been arrived at.
Oh, wait…
Oh, wait…
September 29, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Think you might be being a bit uncharitable. It’s not like he has a history of back-filling the logic to an answer that’s already been arrived at.
Oh, wait…
Oh, wait…
Realised I missed a trick there.
September 29, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Realised I missed a trick there.
"You can't just point at things and tariff them"
September 29, 2025 at 2:01 PM
"You can't just point at things and tariff them"
Is it a surprise that voters question what Starmer really believes in when he says <picture 1> in the evening after having said <picture 2> in the morning?
September 26, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Is it a surprise that voters question what Starmer really believes in when he says <picture 1> in the evening after having said <picture 2> in the morning?
Hmmm, weird. This is what I'm getting with NBS data. Mild deflation since about 2022, but not before that.
September 23, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Hmmm, weird. This is what I'm getting with NBS data. Mild deflation since about 2022, but not before that.
I particularly liked these two paragraphs. Maybe a reminder to certain government ministers that important things can happen as a byproduct of curiosity and investigation rather than through intent.
September 19, 2025 at 5:38 PM
I particularly liked these two paragraphs. Maybe a reminder to certain government ministers that important things can happen as a byproduct of curiosity and investigation rather than through intent.
Ok, gotcha. So to paraphrase, on the balance of probabilities it’s this:
September 19, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Ok, gotcha. So to paraphrase, on the balance of probabilities it’s this:
