Jo Michell
@jomichell.bsky.social
Professor of economics at UWE Bristol. Chair of Post-Keynesian Economics Society. Interested in macro, finance, banking, climate change, inequality, demographics.
https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/JoMichell
https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/JoMichell
Pinned
Estimating the effects of austerity on the labour market: Evidence from Great Britain
Between 2010 and 2019, in response to concern about the public finances, the UK government imposed substantial cuts to public spending. This austerity programme
papers.ssrn.com
New research!
Austerity and the labour market in the UK.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Headline result: austerity reduced wages, increased employment rates, and contributed to weak productivity.
1/n
Austerity and the labour market in the UK.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Headline result: austerity reduced wages, increased employment rates, and contributed to weak productivity.
1/n
Smith, Ricardo and even Wolf.
December 22, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Smith, Ricardo and even Wolf.
This is very good.
December 22, 2025 at 8:44 AM
This is very good.
Remarkable how little coverage this is getting. www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12...
Palestine Action hunger strikers are ‘dying’ in prison, UK doctor warns
Hundreds of doctors, dozens of MPs and thousands of everyday Britons call on the justice secretary to intervene.
www.aljazeera.com
December 21, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Remarkable how little coverage this is getting. www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12...
Reposted by Jo Michell
One of the ways I am a massive Tory is I do think there are certain wisdoms that are, if not eternal, certainly hard-wearing, and one of them is 'knowledge-rich curriculums are best'.
There are some things in teaching that AI won’t change
‘Knowledge-rich’ curriculums will still be crucial in a world shaped by the technology
www.ft.com
December 21, 2025 at 8:23 PM
One of the ways I am a massive Tory is I do think there are certain wisdoms that are, if not eternal, certainly hard-wearing, and one of them is 'knowledge-rich curriculums are best'.
If “this is how it used to be” refers to the situation before World War Two, it is no longer relevant. Any discussion of reformed fiscal rules should acknowledge that deficits are the normal state of affairs.
December 21, 2025 at 4:10 PM
If “this is how it used to be” refers to the situation before World War Two, it is no longer relevant. Any discussion of reformed fiscal rules should acknowledge that deficits are the normal state of affairs.
Reposted by Jo Michell
Yes. You need an ideology because that is what allows you to make decisions and choose between trade-offs.
December 21, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Yes. You need an ideology because that is what allows you to make decisions and choose between trade-offs.
Reposted by Jo Michell
They call it Pop MMT in England, but down here we call it Coke MMT
"Much of MMT is neither new nor wrong: it’s just standard economic theory presented in different language. The disagreement arises not over whether government can compel the central bank to finance its spending, but to what extent government should do this."
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
What’s wrong with MMT?
As Marc Lavoie and John Quiggin have noted, there are ‘two MMTs’. Scholars such as Randy Wray, Eric Tymoigne and Scott Fulwiler have contributed to debates on monetary economics, instit…
criticalfinance.org
December 19, 2025 at 7:17 PM
They call it Pop MMT in England, but down here we call it Coke MMT
Reposted by Jo Michell
that UK debt crisis in full
The 10-year gilt yield is ... down this year
And expected to creep lower in 2026 (www.ft.com/content/c9a5...).
thank you for playing gilts
And expected to creep lower in 2026 (www.ft.com/content/c9a5...).
thank you for playing gilts
Investment banks expect UK borrowing costs to fall further in 2026
Gilts will outshine global peers, helped by BoE rate cuts, Wall Street lenders predict
www.ft.com
December 19, 2025 at 4:24 PM
that UK debt crisis in full
In response to the reappearance of MMT, I have, somewhat reluctantly, written up where the current crop of 'pop MMT' goes wrong.
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
What’s wrong with MMT?
As Marc Lavoie and John Quiggin have noted, there are ‘two MMTs’. Scholars such as Randy Wray, Eric Tymoigne and Scott Fulwiler have contributed to debates on monetary economics, instit…
criticalfinance.org
December 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
In response to the reappearance of MMT, I have, somewhat reluctantly, written up where the current crop of 'pop MMT' goes wrong.
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything.
criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...
Reposted by Jo Michell
What about underlying inflation? This chart focuses on services inflation which fell again this month and is now below the BoE Nov forecast. If we look at high-freq inflation rates, services inflation is now below long-run averages (so shd be consistent with hitting the 2% target).
December 17, 2025 at 8:57 AM
What about underlying inflation? This chart focuses on services inflation which fell again this month and is now below the BoE Nov forecast. If we look at high-freq inflation rates, services inflation is now below long-run averages (so shd be consistent with hitting the 2% target).
Reposted by Jo Michell
Even by my low expectations for Kemi Badenoch ‘violence against women and girls is something done by immigrants and nobody else’ has shocked me.
Dog-whistle and factually incorrect. Ladies, raise your hand if you were sexually assaulted by a boy at school? I’d wager this or a family member is most women’s first experience of sexual violence
December 18, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Even by my low expectations for Kemi Badenoch ‘violence against women and girls is something done by immigrants and nobody else’ has shocked me.
Reposted by Jo Michell
I ported a Python library implementing a full HTML5 parser to JavaScript using GPT-5.2 and Codex CLI in 4.5 hours, and decorated for Christmas and watched Knives Out while I was doing it simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/15/...
I ported JustHTML from Python to JavaScript with Codex CLI and GPT-5.2 in 4.5 hours
I wrote about JustHTML yesterday—Emil Stenström’s project to build a new standards compliant HTML5 parser in pure Python code using coding agents running against the comprehensive html5lib-tests testi...
simonwillison.net
December 16, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I ported a Python library implementing a full HTML5 parser to JavaScript using GPT-5.2 and Codex CLI in 4.5 hours, and decorated for Christmas and watched Knives Out while I was doing it simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/15/...
Richard Murphy is encouraging people to generate AI spam and send it to their MPs.
![My name is [Insert].
My email address is [Insert]. I am happy to correspond electronically.
My address is [Insert in full, including postcode].
Please identify my MP based on my above-noted address, making sure you are identifying the MP elected in July 2024 or since then, if a by-election has been held. Double check you have identified my MP correctly using this website. https://members.parliament.uk/FindYourMP
I want you to write a letter to my MP.
The letter should raise my concerns about the issues raised in this blog post [Insert blog post url].
The text of the blog post in question is [Copy the post to here].
I would like you to:
Include a title in the letter based on the primary issue addressed in this post.
Summarise the concerns raised in the blog post using numbered paragraphs. If you wish to highlight the subject of each paragraph using bold text in its first sentence, please feel free to do so.
You do not need to reference the source material, but can if you want to do so.
Summarise the issues arising from the concerns, again using numbered paragraphs, and again using bold text in the first sentence of each paragraph to highlight what the issue arising is, if you think it appropriate.
Ask the MP to take action. Please feel free to generate possibilities within the range of those normally open to an MP, but you might wish to mention:
Raising the issue with a minister
Asking a question in the House
Tabling an Early Day Motion
Supporting a Commons committee investigating the issue
Raising the matter with an All Party Parliamentary Group
Ask the MP to provide feedback on actions taken and responses received.
The tone of the letter should be polite and confident but should make it clear that a response is expected, as is action.
Please include my MP's full address. Add today's date to the letter. Put the title after the salutation. Put my name and address in the opening paragraph as MPs need to know that information.
Thank you for your assistance.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:mkue2jvvchc5vxsxz3wfxefr/bafkreiebxf2ptwyhhkswkb6ss6qvqdrnnhna6ebuc7iqxaq5rnbboflqey@jpeg)
December 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Richard Murphy is encouraging people to generate AI spam and send it to their MPs.
Reposted by Jo Michell
Hawkish cut from the BoE.
Zero growth predicted for Q4 (although BoE stresses underlying growth at 0.2%)
Got impression BoE places some weight on better Dec PMI reading.
Quite a lot of fretting over where neutral might be (apart from Alan Taylor who slams onto the table: 3%)
Zero growth predicted for Q4 (although BoE stresses underlying growth at 0.2%)
Got impression BoE places some weight on better Dec PMI reading.
Quite a lot of fretting over where neutral might be (apart from Alan Taylor who slams onto the table: 3%)
December 18, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Hawkish cut from the BoE.
Zero growth predicted for Q4 (although BoE stresses underlying growth at 0.2%)
Got impression BoE places some weight on better Dec PMI reading.
Quite a lot of fretting over where neutral might be (apart from Alan Taylor who slams onto the table: 3%)
Zero growth predicted for Q4 (although BoE stresses underlying growth at 0.2%)
Got impression BoE places some weight on better Dec PMI reading.
Quite a lot of fretting over where neutral might be (apart from Alan Taylor who slams onto the table: 3%)
Reposted by Jo Michell
Eight Palestine Action activists are being left to die in prison – all without even facing trial.
We must force the government to act, before it’s too late ⬇️
https://goodlaw.social/3e3320
We must force the government to act, before it’s too late ⬇️
https://goodlaw.social/3e3320
December 18, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Eight Palestine Action activists are being left to die in prison – all without even facing trial.
We must force the government to act, before it’s too late ⬇️
https://goodlaw.social/3e3320
We must force the government to act, before it’s too late ⬇️
https://goodlaw.social/3e3320
Reposted by Jo Michell
Everyone knows about Ahmed al-Ahmad, the Syrian Muslim migrant who took down one gunman. Another man, a Middle Eastern refugee, ran into a firefight and kicked the gun away from the other gunman. Police shot him, and bystanders kicked him in the head while he was down, thinking he was the terrorist.
December 18, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Everyone knows about Ahmed al-Ahmad, the Syrian Muslim migrant who took down one gunman. Another man, a Middle Eastern refugee, ran into a firefight and kicked the gun away from the other gunman. Police shot him, and bystanders kicked him in the head while he was down, thinking he was the terrorist.
Reposted by Jo Michell
This case is absolutely horrifying.
Qesser Zuhrah and Amy Gardiner-Gibson are on day 46 of their hunger strike. Heba Muraisi is on day 45. All are at a high risk of death.
In 1981 - the last time there was a hunger strike like this - Martin Hurson died after 46 days.
In 1981 - the last time there was a hunger strike like this - Martin Hurson died after 46 days.
December 17, 2025 at 12:03 PM
This case is absolutely horrifying.
Reposted by Jo Michell
According to GS, 30% of total USD credit net supply in 2025 has been AI-related.
December 17, 2025 at 11:55 AM
According to GS, 30% of total USD credit net supply in 2025 has been AI-related.
This is a huge problem and the 'open secret' part is substantially true. Huge elephant in the room in the HE sector. I've no idea where we go from here, but currently HE assessment is broken.
December 17, 2025 at 9:27 AM
This is a huge problem and the 'open secret' part is substantially true. Huge elephant in the room in the HE sector. I've no idea where we go from here, but currently HE assessment is broken.
Faster loosening of monetary policy is needed but, as ever, expecting it to do all the work is a mistake. Government should consider bringing forward capital expenditures.
So with the lab mkt continuing to loosen and today's big fall in headline inflation (which BoE have been emphasising), an interest rate cut is all but nailed on for tomorrow. Big question for the BoE is whether recent data point to the need for faster (and/or more) rate cuts in the coming months.
December 17, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Faster loosening of monetary policy is needed but, as ever, expecting it to do all the work is a mistake. Government should consider bringing forward capital expenditures.
Reposted by Jo Michell
Finally, although falling inflation is good news, wage growth is slowing even more sharply - so real wage growth is now falling (and particularly quickly on the RTI measure). With further slowing in likely in the coming months, this is bad news for growth in living standards.
December 17, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Finally, although falling inflation is good news, wage growth is slowing even more sharply - so real wage growth is now falling (and particularly quickly on the RTI measure). With further slowing in likely in the coming months, this is bad news for growth in living standards.
Reposted by Jo Michell
So AI will last for about 30 years then spectacularly collapse?
December 16, 2025 at 8:41 PM
So AI will last for about 30 years then spectacularly collapse?
Time to permanently disable javascript tbh
December 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Time to permanently disable javascript tbh
I don't understand this. What's the mechanism here: is there some kind of pre-funding of the Treasury account that drains reserves for the period prior to actual spending?
December 16, 2025 at 10:57 AM
I don't understand this. What's the mechanism here: is there some kind of pre-funding of the Treasury account that drains reserves for the period prior to actual spending?