Surely the important factor is what the government is compelled to do (or compels itself to do) in response to forecasts. As you say, part of the problem is a pass/fail rule — but even with error bands or probabilities the problem remains in an altered form.

Indeed. Would need more fundamental shifts for any ‘great inversion’. I also find the global savings glut story incoherent. But given all this, what’s the point of the article — just to get a headline and some clicks? Or do some fund managers think like this?

Gift link: on.ft.com/4455d0e

Or, in the language of the BBC, an 'author and academic'.

This isn't a revolutionary government. But as a Labour government, it does need to be the people's representative to the system. So far it's acted as the system's representative to the people - "no, you can't have that, tough choices". And time is running out to deliver outcomes by the election

Also several pieces such as this. www.economist.com/britain/2023...

This (not from that piece) is one of those charts where I am completely aware of the data but my mental map of how the global economy works still almost refuses to update to the new reality. Because the pace of change has been so rapid.

I struggle to see how one can object to the graph.