Tristan Guerra
@tguerra.bsky.social
political science | polarization & populism | research fellow More In Common | made @SciencesPo38, formerly @Princeton
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Reposted by Tristan Guerra
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
November 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12
October 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
🆕💼 Today marks a new chapter: I'm starting as a Researcher at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social in Spain!
After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
October 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM
🆕💼 Today marks a new chapter: I'm starting as a Researcher at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social in Spain!
After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
September 29, 2025 at 7:18 AM
🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 10:25 AM
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
La radicalisation du mécontentement à l'égard d'Emmanuel Macron s'est encore accentuée depuis la dissolution de 2024, et atteint désormais des niveaux records
September 15, 2025 at 5:56 AM
La radicalisation du mécontentement à l'égard d'Emmanuel Macron s'est encore accentuée depuis la dissolution de 2024, et atteint désormais des niveaux records
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
August 4, 2025 at 11:01 AM
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
1/3
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
July 7, 2025 at 9:50 AM
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
🚨 New publication 🚨 : Happy to share that my paper, "Losing Touch: The Rhetorical Cost of Governing" is now forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Short 🧵 about the paper here 👇 1/10
May 22, 2025 at 9:56 AM
🚨 New publication 🚨 : Happy to share that my paper, "Losing Touch: The Rhetorical Cost of Governing" is now forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Short 🧵 about the paper here 👇 1/10
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries.
1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration
1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration
May 2, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries.
1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration
1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
What do Americans associate with 'wokeness'? Find out now in our new open access article that @respol.bsky.social released just in time to ring in my 30th birthday! (with @benji9253.bsky.social, Kal Munis, and Spencer Goidel) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 🧵
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
April 18, 2025 at 10:48 AM
What do Americans associate with 'wokeness'? Find out now in our new open access article that @respol.bsky.social released just in time to ring in my 30th birthday! (with @benji9253.bsky.social, Kal Munis, and Spencer Goidel) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 🧵
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
My article with @robjohns75.bsky.social, "Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future", is now out open access at @polbehavior.bsky.social.
It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future - Political Behavior
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psycholog...
link.springer.com
March 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
My article with @robjohns75.bsky.social, "Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future", is now out open access at @polbehavior.bsky.social.
It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
New paper out at @cpsjournal.bsky.social! With Ian McAllister, we examine how party competition and party positions condition the presence and size of an age gap in voting for the left. A short 🧵 below!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Is there a ‘Youthquake’? The Structure of Party Competition and Age Differences in Voting - Ruth Dassonneville, Ian McAllister, 2025
Why do age differences matter for voting in some countries and not in others? Despite the prevailing narrative that a ‘youthquake’ in voting is occurring across...
journals.sagepub.com
March 20, 2025 at 9:09 AM
New paper out at @cpsjournal.bsky.social! With Ian McAllister, we examine how party competition and party positions condition the presence and size of an age gap in voting for the left. A short 🧵 below!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
The most striking result from yesterday’s German election #btw2025 🇩🇪:
🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map.
🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East.
🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%!
Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇
🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map.
🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East.
🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%!
Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇
February 24, 2025 at 9:18 AM
The most striking result from yesterday’s German election #btw2025 🇩🇪:
🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map.
🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East.
🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%!
Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇
🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map.
🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East.
🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%!
Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
February 23, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively.
FDP might still make it, BSW less likely.
Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins...
#BTW25 #GermanElection
FDP might still make it, BSW less likely.
Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins...
#BTW25 #GermanElection
February 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively.
FDP might still make it, BSW less likely.
Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins...
#BTW25 #GermanElection
FDP might still make it, BSW less likely.
Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins...
#BTW25 #GermanElection
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
🚨 New article out at EJPR with the dream team @fredericofs.bsky.social Loes Aaldering @kgattermann.bsky.social Diego Garzia
TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization
Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad
Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/
TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization
Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad
Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/
February 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
🚨 New article out at EJPR with the dream team @fredericofs.bsky.social Loes Aaldering @kgattermann.bsky.social Diego Garzia
TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization
Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad
Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/
TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization
Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad
Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election:
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
January 9, 2025 at 12:38 PM
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election:
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Les massacres à Gaza doivent cesser. Les otages doivent être libérés. MAINTENANT. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous⬇️ #CeaseFireNOW #BringThemHomeNOW. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous 🔽 #FIN www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture–recapture analysis
Our findings show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied. These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war.
www.thelancet.com
January 11, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Les massacres à Gaza doivent cesser. Les otages doivent être libérés. MAINTENANT. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous⬇️ #CeaseFireNOW #BringThemHomeNOW. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous 🔽 #FIN www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Zuckerberg exposes a big problem with our ideas about authoritarian populism as backlash. Backlash as counterfactual means “if we had not had progressive thing X, we would not see that much support for this ideology“. It should have become clear that authoritarianism is nothing reactive 1/
January 8, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Zuckerberg exposes a big problem with our ideas about authoritarian populism as backlash. Backlash as counterfactual means “if we had not had progressive thing X, we would not see that much support for this ideology“. It should have become clear that authoritarianism is nothing reactive 1/
This article brilliantly captures the deadlock and absurdity of presidentialism within the French political system www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/...
December 19, 2024 at 10:12 AM
This article brilliantly captures the deadlock and absurdity of presidentialism within the French political system www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/...
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Over the past 80 years, academic writing has become substantially harder to read 📉🧪 www.economist.com/science-and-... I analysed 350k PhD thesis abstracts and found that they've become more complex in every discipline, especially the humanities and social sciences
December 18, 2024 at 11:38 PM
Over the past 80 years, academic writing has become substantially harder to read 📉🧪 www.economist.com/science-and-... I analysed 350k PhD thesis abstracts and found that they've become more complex in every discipline, especially the humanities and social sciences
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
December 5, 2024 at 5:22 PM
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹
Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?
We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out
shorturl.at/zQ8bJ