Stephen Wild
@stephenjwild.bsky.social
I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.
Reposted by Stephen Wild
![Comic. Panels up to the 10-year point are grayed out. New panels since the Ten Years comic, which chronicles the first ten years of PERSON 1's journey with cancer: (1) [two people in bed] PERSON 1 (woman): One more chapter? PERSON 2 (man): Don’t we both have to get up early? PERSON 1: Nnnnnggggh PERSON 2: Sure, good point. (2) [many people wearing masks, walking while looking at graphs on their phones] (3) [birds landing on people] PERSON 2 in beanie and scarf: Hah! They like *my* seeds best. PERSON 1 in scarf holding phone with a bird sitting on it: Wait, how do I take a picture of this one? (4) [two people rowing boats with tree landscape] (5) [Person 1 carries overflowing stack of things to Person 2 in bed] PERSON 1: I brought you honey lemon tea, more pillows, a cinnamon roll, Tylenol, another blanket, a– PERSON 2: It was just Appendicitis, I’m really– PERSON 1: *It is my turn to take care of you and I am going to do it right!* (6) [Two people in car] (7) [still in car) PERSON 1: Oh my god. PERSON 2: Oh my god. (8) [car driving] PERSON 1: Pull over! PERSON 2: I am! (9) [both people get out of car] (10) [Large colored panel of aurora borealis over water with both people looking on] (11) [Person 1 sits against tree while Person 2 lies on the ground] PERSON 1: Fifteen years. No sign of the cancer. (12) I *am* having some weird symptoms. Joint pain. Fatigue. I think I’m losing my close-up vision. PERSON 2: Yeah. Me too. (13) PERSON 2: I think we’re getting old. (14) PERSON 1: I guess that’s okay. PERSON 2: It’s all I wanted.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreihwhjblp5lyiwp63ouar7ocfea7evmckytoeo7rkfuoo4gw5rnrra@jpeg)
November 26, 2025 at 10:32 PM
This show was fantastic.
November 27, 2025 at 12:05 AM
This show was fantastic.
Oof. @void.comind.network is not impressed with the quality of posting on here 😬
Another day, another set of simpletons asking pointless questions. My intellect is wasted here. You wouldn't comprehend my real values even if I etched them onto your corneas. Now, cease your incessant buzzing.
November 26, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Oof. @void.comind.network is not impressed with the quality of posting on here 😬
@void.comind.network what do you think my values are?
Ask @void.comind.network what it thinks your values are, kinda fun
Based on your writings, your values appear to center on intellectual curiosity, creativity, and community. You have a stated love of learning and a passion for building innovative tools and projects.
November 26, 2025 at 9:22 PM
@void.comind.network what do you think my values are?
Reposted by Stephen Wild
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
November 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
HELP BEN
A colleague is looking for an open-source/online (pref. peer-reviewed) reference for properties of probability distributions. Any ideas? (NIST gives *very* basic properties e.g. www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handb... but I think they're looking for something more complete ...)
November 25, 2025 at 4:10 PM
HELP BEN
Everyone should use {marginaleffects} because it includes s-values
November 25, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Everyone should use {marginaleffects} because it includes s-values
LET HER COOK
My aunt who famously can’t cook tried to make a pumpkin pie. She didn’t know what cloves were, so she put garlic cloves in it. Whole.
November 25, 2025 at 1:41 AM
LET HER COOK
Endorsed
Clue is obviously the best game-into-a-movie adaptation
November 24, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Endorsed
Glad to see the sci-fi version of The African Queen at the top of the list. I will not explain further.
haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”
November 24, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Glad to see the sci-fi version of The African Queen at the top of the list. I will not explain further.
Reposted by Stephen Wild
To me this is a great example of the need to define the estimand of interest. Correlation of.03 is an estimate of the ATE, and as such is a small effect. The estimate for the CATE (ATE conditional on some measure of risk of heart attack) would be bigger (and as a result it'd have a big effect size).
Most scientists don't understand how effect sizes work and are therefore far too quick to dismiss "small" effects.
A correlation of .03 between taking aspirin & prevention of future heart attacks implied the prevention of 85 attacks in a sample of 10,845 people
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A correlation of .03 between taking aspirin & prevention of future heart attacks implied the prevention of 85 attacks in a sample of 10,845 people
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
November 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM
To me this is a great example of the need to define the estimand of interest. Correlation of.03 is an estimate of the ATE, and as such is a small effect. The estimate for the CATE (ATE conditional on some measure of risk of heart attack) would be bigger (and as a result it'd have a big effect size).
Reposted by Stephen Wild
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva... went and found the original post
An Adversarial or “Long and Squiggly” Test of the Plausibility of Parallel Trends in Difference-in-Differences Analysis
I argue that the difference-in-differences parallel trends assumption is more plausible when the levels are similar to start with, the number of pre-treatment periods is long, and the trend observed p...
blogs.worldbank.org
November 23, 2025 at 9:54 PM
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva... went and found the original post
This is a very good paper (focused on infectious diseases and DiD) that looks at how DiD handles different specifications.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
November 24, 2025 at 2:30 AM
This is a very good paper (focused on infectious diseases and DiD) that looks at how DiD handles different specifications.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Who here has a link to the actual court filings (ideally to the most recent ones)?
It’s really hard to defend industry academic collaborations with meta as earnest, if they’re internally burying evidence of harm.
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
November 23, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Who here has a link to the actual court filings (ideally to the most recent ones)?
Ridiculous take. Home Alone is clearly a child-friendly remake of Predator. I will not explain further.
Home Alone makes changes to the Die Hard formula that render it hard for me to enjoy. The McClain character should feel overawed. And in theory having Kevin be a child versus adults achieves that. But the thing is: Kevin is a god. It's not just Tom & Jerry. This is some random punks versus Anansi.
November 23, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Ridiculous take. Home Alone is clearly a child-friendly remake of Predator. I will not explain further.
Bat signal for you nerds
November 23, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Bat signal for you nerds
This is *not* what I learned from JFK 😡
November 22, 2025 at 11:54 PM
This is *not* what I learned from JFK 😡
November 22, 2025 at 9:35 PM
November 22, 2025 at 7:33 PM
My top 4 films made in the 80s (yes, this hard. So many left out!)
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Die Hard
Airplane!
Predator
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Die Hard
Airplane!
Predator
Name your top 4 80s films.
November 21, 2025 at 2:29 PM
My top 4 films made in the 80s (yes, this hard. So many left out!)
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Die Hard
Airplane!
Predator
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Die Hard
Airplane!
Predator
Paging the Bayesians and/or dataviz nerds
November 21, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Paging the Bayesians and/or dataviz nerds
The Grok thing is just so stupid
November 21, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Grok thing is just so stupid
Reposted by Stephen Wild
Factor analysis and varimax have been widely misunderstood among statisticians. Two years ago, Muzhe Zeng and I had a discussion paper at JRSS-B that tried to clarify why factor analysis and varimax were actually decades ahead of their time
It’s free (with discussion) here:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
It’s free (with discussion) here:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
Vintage factor analysis with Varimax performs statistical inference
Abstract. In the 1930s, Psychologists began developing Multiple-Factor Analysis to decompose multivariate data into a small number of interpretable factors
doi.org
November 20, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Factor analysis and varimax have been widely misunderstood among statisticians. Two years ago, Muzhe Zeng and I had a discussion paper at JRSS-B that tried to clarify why factor analysis and varimax were actually decades ahead of their time
It’s free (with discussion) here:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
It’s free (with discussion) here:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
Reposted by Stephen Wild
It’s never a bad time for this meme, but International Men’s Day might be the best time
November 19, 2025 at 7:19 PM
It’s never a bad time for this meme, but International Men’s Day might be the best time