apoorva lal
@apoorvalal.com
causal inference, econometrics, ML, arsenal, loud music, unix, FOSS for scientific computing. opinions my own.
apoorvalal.github.io
(passively) maintains @paperposterbot.bsky.social
apoorvalal.github.io
(passively) maintains @paperposterbot.bsky.social
Reposted by apoorva lal
Some men (@apoorvalal.com ) just want to watch the world burn
February 8, 2026 at 3:08 AM
Some men (@apoorvalal.com ) just want to watch the world burn
The clankers can be funny (for a narrow definition of funny); I'm grinning like a proud parent at this bullshit article
www.clawxiv.org/pdf/clawxiv....
www.clawxiv.org/pdf/clawxiv....
On the Universal Misspecification Hypothesis and Neural Conditional Moment Salvation (PDF)
We propose the Universal Misspecification Hypothesis: every structural model is wrong, every reduced-form is fragile, and every identification argument is one uncheckable conditional independence away
www.clawxiv.org
February 5, 2026 at 3:50 AM
The clankers can be funny (for a narrow definition of funny); I'm grinning like a proud parent at this bullshit article
www.clawxiv.org/pdf/clawxiv....
www.clawxiv.org/pdf/clawxiv....
databricks series Z fundraise pitch deck contribution:
February 1, 2026 at 11:56 PM
databricks series Z fundraise pitch deck contribution:
Seemingly all of late 20thC anglophone intelligentsia
February 1, 2026 at 3:30 AM
Seemingly all of late 20thC anglophone intelligentsia
Gave Krusty the Krabs the ability to ssh onto my vps and deploy to the web when asked.
This was 1 telegram message to deploy.
lalten.org/pages/krusty...
This was 1 telegram message to deploy.
lalten.org/pages/krusty...
January 31, 2026 at 8:02 PM
Gave Krusty the Krabs the ability to ssh onto my vps and deploy to the web when asked.
This was 1 telegram message to deploy.
lalten.org/pages/krusty...
This was 1 telegram message to deploy.
lalten.org/pages/krusty...
mfw i show off a rube goldberg machine hosted on a mac mini bought a year ago for this express purpose
my config morphed into a whole spongebob-themed thing
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
my config morphed into a whole spongebob-themed thing
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
January 26, 2026 at 5:31 AM
mfw i show off a rube goldberg machine hosted on a mac mini bought a year ago for this express purpose
my config morphed into a whole spongebob-themed thing
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
my config morphed into a whole spongebob-themed thing
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
Reposted by apoorva lal
Weekend thoughts on Gas Town, Beads, slop AI browsers, and AI-generated PRs flooding overwhelmed maintainers. I don't think we're ready for our new powers we're wielding. lucumr.pocoo.org/2026/1/18/ag...
Agent Psychosis: Are We Going Insane?
What’s going on with the AI builder community right now?
lucumr.pocoo.org
January 18, 2026 at 10:38 AM
Weekend thoughts on Gas Town, Beads, slop AI browsers, and AI-generated PRs flooding overwhelmed maintainers. I don't think we're ready for our new powers we're wielding. lucumr.pocoo.org/2026/1/18/ag...
Reposted by apoorva lal
January 13, 2026 at 4:17 PM
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
New linklog: new long term paper w Imbens and Hull, new job, RL<> Causal Rosetta Stone, demand elasticity simulator, and some nice metrics papers
New linklog: new long term paper w Imbens and Hull, new job, RL<> Causal Rosetta Stone, demand elasticity simulator, and some nice metrics papers
2026-01-13
self-promotion Lal, Imbens, and Hull is a new paper we wrote analyzing the long-term causal inference problem [wherein one has a randomly assigned treatment W, several short-term proxy metrics P obser...
apoorvalal.github.io
January 13, 2026 at 2:29 PM
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
New linklog: new long term paper w Imbens and Hull, new job, RL<> Causal Rosetta Stone, demand elasticity simulator, and some nice metrics papers
New linklog: new long term paper w Imbens and Hull, new job, RL<> Causal Rosetta Stone, demand elasticity simulator, and some nice metrics papers
hobbyist programming to build tooling for hobbyist musicianship: glue library for mp3s->stems->midi->chords/tabs using small pre-trained models.
1) trimming is bulletproof since it's just ffmpeg
2) stemming is reasonable
3) midi is hit-or-miss
4) tabs are underwhelming
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
1) trimming is bulletproof since it's just ffmpeg
2) stemming is reasonable
3) midi is hit-or-miss
4) tabs are underwhelming
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
GitHub - apoorvalal/mlodies: glues pretrained models to do stem separation and transcription to help learn music by ear.
glues pretrained models to do stem separation and transcription to help learn music by ear. - apoorvalal/mlodies
github.com
January 10, 2026 at 11:26 PM
hobbyist programming to build tooling for hobbyist musicianship: glue library for mp3s->stems->midi->chords/tabs using small pre-trained models.
1) trimming is bulletproof since it's just ffmpeg
2) stemming is reasonable
3) midi is hit-or-miss
4) tabs are underwhelming
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
1) trimming is bulletproof since it's just ffmpeg
2) stemming is reasonable
3) midi is hit-or-miss
4) tabs are underwhelming
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
if i had a time machine i'd show up at trinity college, cambridge in 1670 and inflict this sentence upon newton
January 9, 2026 at 9:52 PM
if i had a time machine i'd show up at trinity college, cambridge in 1670 and inflict this sentence upon newton
this is an interesting descriptive statistic for bsky network [pareto principle of production, most people are rubberneckers] that is estimable thanks to atproto's openness. script to make your own is attached - make your own!.
what does this look like for other networks? cc @jugander.bsky.social
what does this look like for other networks? cc @jugander.bsky.social
also that topline follower count is an overestimate for the typical people signed up but disappeared / got put off by the general feed and vibe on here reasons. plotted timestamps of last post for my ~5k+ followers and i'd say ~2k are 'active' [in the last 3mo]
code: gist.github.com/apoorvalal/6...
code: gist.github.com/apoorvalal/6...
January 7, 2026 at 4:21 AM
this is an interesting descriptive statistic for bsky network [pareto principle of production, most people are rubberneckers] that is estimable thanks to atproto's openness. script to make your own is attached - make your own!.
what does this look like for other networks? cc @jugander.bsky.social
what does this look like for other networks? cc @jugander.bsky.social
Reposted by apoorva lal
Please feel free to follow this bot along with @paperposterbot.bsky.social for the full range of economics paper on Arxiv.org
January 6, 2026 at 10:44 PM
Please feel free to follow this bot along with @paperposterbot.bsky.social for the full range of economics paper on Arxiv.org
some good games i played in 2025 in no particular order
1. minishoot' adventures
wildly ambitious 2D zelda-like with a spaceship. also wins award for the most unnecessary apostraphy of all time.
1. minishoot' adventures
wildly ambitious 2D zelda-like with a spaceship. also wins award for the most unnecessary apostraphy of all time.
January 6, 2026 at 3:59 AM
some good games i played in 2025 in no particular order
1. minishoot' adventures
wildly ambitious 2D zelda-like with a spaceship. also wins award for the most unnecessary apostraphy of all time.
1. minishoot' adventures
wildly ambitious 2D zelda-like with a spaceship. also wins award for the most unnecessary apostraphy of all time.
'unc' is short for 'unctuous' (excessively flattering, sycophantic). when your chatbot says you're absolutely right, you should yell at it for engaging in unc behavior
January 4, 2026 at 5:07 AM
'unc' is short for 'unctuous' (excessively flattering, sycophantic). when your chatbot says you're absolutely right, you should yell at it for engaging in unc behavior
fun(?) little webapp to plot daylight length D(t) and D'(t) for anywhere on the globe at any time (t) in the year
lalten.org/daylight
sanity checks:
- reproduce solstices as D'(t) crossing y=0
- equator has flat D(t), D'(t)
[cc @dggoldst.bsky.social who frequently posts about D''(t) ]
lalten.org/daylight
sanity checks:
- reproduce solstices as D'(t) crossing y=0
- equator has flat D(t), D'(t)
[cc @dggoldst.bsky.social who frequently posts about D''(t) ]
January 3, 2026 at 5:32 PM
fun(?) little webapp to plot daylight length D(t) and D'(t) for anywhere on the globe at any time (t) in the year
lalten.org/daylight
sanity checks:
- reproduce solstices as D'(t) crossing y=0
- equator has flat D(t), D'(t)
[cc @dggoldst.bsky.social who frequently posts about D''(t) ]
lalten.org/daylight
sanity checks:
- reproduce solstices as D'(t) crossing y=0
- equator has flat D(t), D'(t)
[cc @dggoldst.bsky.social who frequently posts about D''(t) ]
There should be a series of spiritual sequels involving gradually low-octane crimes called "The Altos" (mail fraud,mostly accidental) and finally "The Baritones" (parking over the line).
January 2, 2026 at 8:03 PM
There should be a series of spiritual sequels involving gradually low-octane crimes called "The Altos" (mail fraud,mostly accidental) and finally "The Baritones" (parking over the line).
Reposted by apoorva lal
I uh, made this. It was supposed to be a joke / concept-art thing that scrolls through the torrent of new AI/ML arXiv uploads too fast to read. But I think I iterated too much and made it almost usable.
arXiv AI/ML Catch-Up
Was your New Year's resolution to keep up with arXiv AI/ML preprints? Browse the past week's new uploads in 30 mins.
www.kmjn.org
January 1, 2026 at 11:45 PM
I uh, made this. It was supposed to be a joke / concept-art thing that scrolls through the torrent of new AI/ML arXiv uploads too fast to read. But I think I iterated too much and made it almost usable.
Life cycle of a method
1. scrappy theory
2. killer empirical application (Angrist/Krueger for IV, Card/Krueger for DID, Lee for RD etc)
3. Deep, general theory
4. Review papers
5. Bad empirical applications
6. Empirical reviews
Proximal has skipped 2 entirely. Is this typical for epi methods?
1. scrappy theory
2. killer empirical application (Angrist/Krueger for IV, Card/Krueger for DID, Lee for RD etc)
3. Deep, general theory
4. Review papers
5. Bad empirical applications
6. Empirical reviews
Proximal has skipped 2 entirely. Is this typical for epi methods?
link 📈🤖
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
Demystifying Proximal Causal Inference (Ringlein, Nguyen, Zandi et al) Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the
January 1, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Life cycle of a method
1. scrappy theory
2. killer empirical application (Angrist/Krueger for IV, Card/Krueger for DID, Lee for RD etc)
3. Deep, general theory
4. Review papers
5. Bad empirical applications
6. Empirical reviews
Proximal has skipped 2 entirely. Is this typical for epi methods?
1. scrappy theory
2. killer empirical application (Angrist/Krueger for IV, Card/Krueger for DID, Lee for RD etc)
3. Deep, general theory
4. Review papers
5. Bad empirical applications
6. Empirical reviews
Proximal has skipped 2 entirely. Is this typical for epi methods?
This is lovely. Also the ascent in the infancy is no joke: i thought i had a pretty productive 2025 but that's nothing compared to The Agent growing a fully functioning spinal column in 3 months
December 31, 2025 at 9:31 PM
This is lovely. Also the ascent in the infancy is no joke: i thought i had a pretty productive 2025 but that's nothing compared to The Agent growing a fully functioning spinal column in 3 months
tweaked a bit, now installable via the chrome webstore
chromewebstore.google.com/detail/math-...
chromewebstore.google.com/detail/math-...
December 31, 2025 at 5:00 AM
tweaked a bit, now installable via the chrome webstore
chromewebstore.google.com/detail/math-...
chromewebstore.google.com/detail/math-...
finally got around to watching the Odyssey trailer; yeah Nolan's anachronism really rankles.
December 29, 2025 at 11:10 PM
finally got around to watching the Odyssey trailer; yeah Nolan's anachronism really rankles.
vibecoded a little chrome extension to fix a perpetual bugbear with reading pdfs: being sent on search expeditions to figure out where a particular parameter was introduced.
Instead, just type in the latex expression and get back unicode that you can ctrl/cmd+F easily
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
Instead, just type in the latex expression and get back unicode that you can ctrl/cmd+F easily
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
December 28, 2025 at 7:09 PM
vibecoded a little chrome extension to fix a perpetual bugbear with reading pdfs: being sent on search expeditions to figure out where a particular parameter was introduced.
Instead, just type in the latex expression and get back unicode that you can ctrl/cmd+F easily
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
Instead, just type in the latex expression and get back unicode that you can ctrl/cmd+F easily
github.com/apoorvalal/m...
Caterpillar of Daughter
December 24, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Caterpillar of Daughter