Stephen Wild
@stephenjwild.bsky.social
I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.
If I were an ambitious Scottish general encouraged to violence by my wife, I would simply distinguish myself by killing the king and ascending to the throne.
November 11, 2025 at 8:53 AM
If I were an ambitious Scottish general encouraged to violence by my wife, I would simply distinguish myself by killing the king and ascending to the throne.
*thought about it a bit
November 10, 2025 at 5:53 PM
*thought about it a bit
Having thought about it about it able bit, I think what bothers we is how early the curves separate. This to me suggests that it's probably caffeine withdrawal triggering it.
Lesson: Don't stop drinking coffee
Lesson: Don't stop drinking coffee
November 10, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Having thought about it about it able bit, I think what bothers we is how early the curves separate. This to me suggests that it's probably caffeine withdrawal triggering it.
Lesson: Don't stop drinking coffee
Lesson: Don't stop drinking coffee
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I am clearly implying the effect should be larger.
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I am clearly implying the effect should be larger.
I dunno. Something about it makes me question it. And I say this as a dude who likes his coffee!
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
I dunno. Something about it makes me question it. And I say this as a dude who likes his coffee!
That KM curve seems off. Something about it is setting off an alarm bell in my head.
November 10, 2025 at 3:16 PM
That KM curve seems off. Something about it is setting off an alarm bell in my head.
Feels like most days, tbh
November 10, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Feels like most days, tbh
Depends on your ideological view 🤪
Most of the research in this area is terrible. But also, no one agrees on what "masks work" means.
Most of the research in this area is terrible. But also, no one agrees on what "masks work" means.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Depends on your ideological view 🤪
Most of the research in this area is terrible. But also, no one agrees on what "masks work" means.
Most of the research in this area is terrible. But also, no one agrees on what "masks work" means.
But yeah, I agree. It usually stands out
November 10, 2025 at 2:10 AM
But yeah, I agree. It usually stands out
A bright flashing light you say?
In the paper they use they asymmetric Laplace:
bsky.app/profile/step...
In the paper they use they asymmetric Laplace:
bsky.app/profile/step...
That's why you need things lkle this (this comes from a paper that reported positive results. Some of them are clearly driven by the prior)
November 10, 2025 at 2:06 AM
A bright flashing light you say?
In the paper they use they asymmetric Laplace:
bsky.app/profile/step...
In the paper they use they asymmetric Laplace:
bsky.app/profile/step...
This seems like something I would have learned from you, @guidobiele.bsky.social. Any ideas?
November 10, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This seems like something I would have learned from you, @guidobiele.bsky.social. Any ideas?
I don't think so. I think your prior would need to be symmetrical. But I need to look into it more
November 10, 2025 at 12:17 AM
I don't think so. I think your prior would need to be symmetrical. But I need to look into it more
Depends on the prior. If you set a gamma prior on something that should/can be negative, for example, you may have a problem.
November 8, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Depends on the prior. If you set a gamma prior on something that should/can be negative, for example, you may have a problem.
It's always an interesting assumption that you're going to buy more than one home
November 8, 2025 at 10:34 PM
It's always an interesting assumption that you're going to buy more than one home
I think it was @rmkubinec.bsky.social who directed me to this
November 8, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I think it was @rmkubinec.bsky.social who directed me to this
Tangential to your point, but nonetheless
November 8, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Tangential to your point, but nonetheless
As a former retail employee, the "smile/greet them if they're within ten feet" rule is annoying. As a customer, I find it offputting and creepy because it comes across as fake.
November 8, 2025 at 5:47 PM
As a former retail employee, the "smile/greet them if they're within ten feet" rule is annoying. As a customer, I find it offputting and creepy because it comes across as fake.