markthomsen79.bsky.social
@markthomsen79.bsky.social
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
First instalment of my substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out.
jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...
jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...
Explaining the emergence and consolidation of right-wing populism: Part I
Stylised facts, or what has actually happened?
jacobedenhofer.substack.com
April 7, 2025 at 8:15 AM
First instalment of my substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out.
jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...
jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Heute in der FAZ ein kurzer Artikel von @trfetzer.com, @prashantgarg.bsky.social und mir zu unserer Studie “Local Decline and Populism”. zeitung.faz.net/faz/wirtscha...
April 7, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Heute in der FAZ ein kurzer Artikel von @trfetzer.com, @prashantgarg.bsky.social und mir zu unserer Studie “Local Decline and Populism”. zeitung.faz.net/faz/wirtscha...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Regierungssysteme in der globalen Demokratiekrise. @transcript-verlag.bsky.social verlost 5 Ex. meines Buches. Der Blog argumentiert, dass nicht alle demokratischen Regierungssysteme gleich anfällig für die Autokratisierung sind. Teilnahme durch Teilen! blog.transcript-verlag.de/globale-demo...
»Es ist keineswegs ausgeschlossen, dass die Zeit der Demokratien zu Ende gehen wird« — transcript.Blog
Steffen GanghofDer weltweite Anstieg rechtspopulistischer Bewegungen verursacht eine globale Demokratiekrise. Besonders besorgniserregend ist, dass Staatsoberhäupter aktiv daran arbeiten, demokratisch...
blog.transcript-verlag.de
March 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Regierungssysteme in der globalen Demokratiekrise. @transcript-verlag.bsky.social verlost 5 Ex. meines Buches. Der Blog argumentiert, dass nicht alle demokratischen Regierungssysteme gleich anfällig für die Autokratisierung sind. Teilnahme durch Teilen! blog.transcript-verlag.de/globale-demo...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Just so people do not draw the wrong conclusions. Like other social democratic parties, the SPD has lost only very few voters to the far right. Today's AfD supporters are mostly not former social democrats. We outline this in detail here, for example: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/media/1awhrc...
February 25, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Just so people do not draw the wrong conclusions. Like other social democratic parties, the SPD has lost only very few voters to the far right. Today's AfD supporters are mostly not former social democrats. We outline this in detail here, for example: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/media/1awhrc...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
If correct, then Merz's move to the right (i.e. willingness to form a parliamentary majority with the AfD) might have resulted in:
- a surprisingly strong The Left
- a larger vote share for left-leaning bloc overall
- a slightly weakened Union
- while perhaps preventing further gains for the AfD.
- a surprisingly strong The Left
- a larger vote share for left-leaning bloc overall
- a slightly weakened Union
- while perhaps preventing further gains for the AfD.
It is interesting that the late rise of The Left in the polls was not accompanied by correspondingly large losses for the SPD & Greens. Perhaps voter movement to The Left was largely compensated for by late gains from the UNION by liberal (Merkel) voters who were critical of Merz's course.
February 23, 2025 at 9:18 PM
If correct, then Merz's move to the right (i.e. willingness to form a parliamentary majority with the AfD) might have resulted in:
- a surprisingly strong The Left
- a larger vote share for left-leaning bloc overall
- a slightly weakened Union
- while perhaps preventing further gains for the AfD.
- a surprisingly strong The Left
- a larger vote share for left-leaning bloc overall
- a slightly weakened Union
- while perhaps preventing further gains for the AfD.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
To my mind, it can’t be emphasised strongly enough just how much now depends on the CDU/CSU being willing to swallow the bitter pill of making big concessions to the LINKE, provided they are serious about reforming/circumventing the debt brake. Similarly, it worries me greatly that so much of
Merz decent too on security and defence. Van Aken unsurprisingly irresponsible in this regard, trying to dismiss need for investing in defence/security via a (an irrelevant) comparison of military expenditure European NATO countries and Russia. While the LINKE is potentially helpful for
Habeck with a strong statement imo, emphasising that security and foreign policy must be the first order of business of the new government — given the Trump administration’s decision to throw Ukraine and liberal democracy under the bus.
February 23, 2025 at 8:32 PM
To my mind, it can’t be emphasised strongly enough just how much now depends on the CDU/CSU being willing to swallow the bitter pill of making big concessions to the LINKE, provided they are serious about reforming/circumventing the debt brake. Similarly, it worries me greatly that so much of
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Attendee at Tesla protest saw “disgust” with Musk. Scholarship finds “people tend to relate to politics through simple, affectively charged social symbols” that “evoke anger, disgust, fear.” With X, DOGE, etc seems Musk is turning himself into a “villain.” talim.scholar.princeton.edu/sites/g/file...
February 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Attendee at Tesla protest saw “disgust” with Musk. Scholarship finds “people tend to relate to politics through simple, affectively charged social symbols” that “evoke anger, disgust, fear.” With X, DOGE, etc seems Musk is turning himself into a “villain.” talim.scholar.princeton.edu/sites/g/file...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Never expected a world where JD Vance would refer to Niall Ferguson’s arguments that dictators shouldn’t invade sovereign states as ‘moralistic garbage’.
February 20, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Never expected a world where JD Vance would refer to Niall Ferguson’s arguments that dictators shouldn’t invade sovereign states as ‘moralistic garbage’.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Was kann man jetzt tun?
Mein Rat: In eine Partei eintreten. Sich engagieren, wenn es geht. Ändert sich dann morgen die Welt? Nein. Aber man ist mit Leuten zusammen, die ähnliche Sorgen/Ziele haben wie man selbst. Und das nicht nur auf einer Demo, sondern in Strukturen, in denen man gestalten kann.
Mein Rat: In eine Partei eintreten. Sich engagieren, wenn es geht. Ändert sich dann morgen die Welt? Nein. Aber man ist mit Leuten zusammen, die ähnliche Sorgen/Ziele haben wie man selbst. Und das nicht nur auf einer Demo, sondern in Strukturen, in denen man gestalten kann.
February 16, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Was kann man jetzt tun?
Mein Rat: In eine Partei eintreten. Sich engagieren, wenn es geht. Ändert sich dann morgen die Welt? Nein. Aber man ist mit Leuten zusammen, die ähnliche Sorgen/Ziele haben wie man selbst. Und das nicht nur auf einer Demo, sondern in Strukturen, in denen man gestalten kann.
Mein Rat: In eine Partei eintreten. Sich engagieren, wenn es geht. Ändert sich dann morgen die Welt? Nein. Aber man ist mit Leuten zusammen, die ähnliche Sorgen/Ziele haben wie man selbst. Und das nicht nur auf einer Demo, sondern in Strukturen, in denen man gestalten kann.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Portuguese editorial cartoonist Zez Vaz reaches back to Tiananmen Square to call on American defiance.
February 15, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Portuguese editorial cartoonist Zez Vaz reaches back to Tiananmen Square to call on American defiance.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Was nach #Trump und #Vance klar ist: Europa muss SCHNELL und MASSIV in militärische+wirtschaftliche Stärke investieren, sonst gehen wir unter.
Und kurzfristig geht das nur über Kreditfinanzierung, das ist die Realität. Daher ist Reform der Schuldenbremse bzw. Sondervermögen im GG unumgänglich. /1
Und kurzfristig geht das nur über Kreditfinanzierung, das ist die Realität. Daher ist Reform der Schuldenbremse bzw. Sondervermögen im GG unumgänglich. /1
February 15, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Opposition from civil society is no doubt important, but it's effective, organized, *unified* political opposition that is needed to reverse the authoritarian slide. That at least is the lesson I draw from (the failures of the opposition parties in) Erdogan's Turkey. Looking at you, Democrats!
February 4, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Opposition from civil society is no doubt important, but it's effective, organized, *unified* political opposition that is needed to reverse the authoritarian slide. That at least is the lesson I draw from (the failures of the opposition parties in) Erdogan's Turkey. Looking at you, Democrats!
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
🧨 Is Political Disruption Good?🧨 New post on the newfound love for Trumpian disruption. Or as I call it, 'move fast and break people'. I've done theories of growth. Now onto theories of disruption. When is it good? When is it bad? Is there a plan at all? 1/n
benansell.substack.com/p/move-fast-...
benansell.substack.com/p/move-fast-...
Move Fast and Break People
Are we entering a new era of disruptive politics? How should we feel about it?
benansell.substack.com
February 5, 2025 at 10:04 AM
🧨 Is Political Disruption Good?🧨 New post on the newfound love for Trumpian disruption. Or as I call it, 'move fast and break people'. I've done theories of growth. Now onto theories of disruption. When is it good? When is it bad? Is there a plan at all? 1/n
benansell.substack.com/p/move-fast-...
benansell.substack.com/p/move-fast-...
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
📢Veröffentlichung des Zweijahresgutachtens vom Expertenrat für Klimafragen @expertenratklima.bsky.social: Es gibt Fortschritte beim Klimaschutz, aber der Trend reicht noch nicht für 2030. Verkehrssektor ist Sorgenkind mit steigenden Emissionen.
So weit, so schlecht, so bekannt. Was ist neu?
1/n 👇
So weit, so schlecht, so bekannt. Was ist neu?
1/n 👇
February 5, 2025 at 9:02 AM
📢Veröffentlichung des Zweijahresgutachtens vom Expertenrat für Klimafragen @expertenratklima.bsky.social: Es gibt Fortschritte beim Klimaschutz, aber der Trend reicht noch nicht für 2030. Verkehrssektor ist Sorgenkind mit steigenden Emissionen.
So weit, so schlecht, so bekannt. Was ist neu?
1/n 👇
So weit, so schlecht, so bekannt. Was ist neu?
1/n 👇
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Nothing to worry about, just one of the leading Trumpist thinkers approvingly tweeting as relevant today his call for "regime change -- the peaceful but vigorous overthrow of a corrupt and corrupting liberal ruling class and the creation of a postliberal order"
February 3, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Nothing to worry about, just one of the leading Trumpist thinkers approvingly tweeting as relevant today his call for "regime change -- the peaceful but vigorous overthrow of a corrupt and corrupting liberal ruling class and the creation of a postliberal order"
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
All of this from @pastpunditry.bsky.social. The crisis is not *legible*. Even politically attentive people have no idea - the media are not conveying the scope and magnitude of what's happening. It has to be made legible through political and institutional resistance, not passivity and resignations.
February 2, 2025 at 10:17 PM
All of this from @pastpunditry.bsky.social. The crisis is not *legible*. Even politically attentive people have no idea - the media are not conveying the scope and magnitude of what's happening. It has to be made legible through political and institutional resistance, not passivity and resignations.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
In addition to “biased,” I expected to see that woke term “difference-in-differences.”
Dear Econometricians, if you were planning to apply to an NSF grant this year, I have bad news for you #EconSky
🚨BREAKING. From a program officer at the National Science Foundation, a list of keywords that can cause a grant to be pulled. I will be sharing screenshots of these keywords along with a decision tree. Please share widely. This is a crisis for academic freedom & science.
February 4, 2025 at 5:48 AM
In addition to “biased,” I expected to see that woke term “difference-in-differences.”
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
V. good:
"If anyone with a smartphone can publish, they should also be able to verify. To combat any security threat posed by disordered information we need to teach young people these skills"
By @bellingcat.com @eliothiggins.bsky.social and @drnataliemartin.bsky.social
https://reutersinstitute.politics.o…
By @bellingcat.com @eliothiggins.bsky.social and @drnataliemartin.bsky.social
https://reutersinstitute.politics.o…
How to protect democracies from falsehoods? By empowering the young with open-source investigation skills
“If anyone with a smartphone can publish, they should also be able to verify,” argue Bellingcat’s founder Eliot Higgins and Dr Natalie Martin in this piece.
reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk
February 4, 2025 at 7:59 AM
V. good:
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Für den Kenner ist es immer ein Genuss, einem Spitzenökonomen wie
@pkrugman.bsky.social
beim Live Denken zuzuhören. Auf der anderen Seite: er äht viel und mäandert, es mag also nicht jedermanns Sache sein. Aber zwei Gedanken sind auf jeden Fall interessant und relevant für die aktuelle Situation:
@pkrugman.bsky.social
beim Live Denken zuzuhören. Auf der anderen Seite: er äht viel und mäandert, es mag also nicht jedermanns Sache sein. Aber zwei Gedanken sind auf jeden Fall interessant und relevant für die aktuelle Situation:
February 2, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Für den Kenner ist es immer ein Genuss, einem Spitzenökonomen wie
@pkrugman.bsky.social
beim Live Denken zuzuhören. Auf der anderen Seite: er äht viel und mäandert, es mag also nicht jedermanns Sache sein. Aber zwei Gedanken sind auf jeden Fall interessant und relevant für die aktuelle Situation:
@pkrugman.bsky.social
beim Live Denken zuzuhören. Auf der anderen Seite: er äht viel und mäandert, es mag also nicht jedermanns Sache sein. Aber zwei Gedanken sind auf jeden Fall interessant und relevant für die aktuelle Situation:
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Die Zollkriege von 2025 haben begonnen. Vom Zaun gebrochen von Trump: Unnötig, kostspielig, gefährlich Europa wird das nächste Ziel sein. Drei Prinzipien sollten unsere Antwort leiten: 1. Europa muss zusammenstehen und darf sich nicht auseinander dividieren lassen. 1/N
February 2, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Die Zollkriege von 2025 haben begonnen. Vom Zaun gebrochen von Trump: Unnötig, kostspielig, gefährlich Europa wird das nächste Ziel sein. Drei Prinzipien sollten unsere Antwort leiten: 1. Europa muss zusammenstehen und darf sich nicht auseinander dividieren lassen. 1/N
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Primw example of problems in our media system. How do serious journalists not see the crazy poll results and think “hmm, that seems unilkely, let me talk to an expert before I spread this finding“? So much focus on how social media is hurting our democracies and too little on traditional media
There's a poll going round suggesting half of Gen Z would support a dictatorship in the UK. Slightly different question and sample... but this is definitely *not* what the British Election Study finds
January 28, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Primw example of problems in our media system. How do serious journalists not see the crazy poll results and think “hmm, that seems unilkely, let me talk to an expert before I spread this finding“? So much focus on how social media is hurting our democracies and too little on traditional media
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Amazing how these people are suddenly experts in everything.
Anyone who knows anything about the biology of aging realizes that doubling human lifespan is not going to be a matter of a few miracle drugs. This is complete and utter snake oil, and they sound increasingly desperate by the day.
Anyone who knows anything about the biology of aging realizes that doubling human lifespan is not going to be a matter of a few miracle drugs. This is complete and utter snake oil, and they sound increasingly desperate by the day.
Anthropic CEO Sees AI-Powered Advances Doubling Human Lifespans | PYMNTS.com
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said Thursday (Jan. 23) that accelerated advances in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in biology, can lead to a
www.pymnts.com
January 24, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Amazing how these people are suddenly experts in everything.
Anyone who knows anything about the biology of aging realizes that doubling human lifespan is not going to be a matter of a few miracle drugs. This is complete and utter snake oil, and they sound increasingly desperate by the day.
Anyone who knows anything about the biology of aging realizes that doubling human lifespan is not going to be a matter of a few miracle drugs. This is complete and utter snake oil, and they sound increasingly desperate by the day.
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
'Megadonor is a term that oligarchs themselves are much more comfortable with because the base of the word is “to donate,” as if what you’re doing is altruistic or selfless. But that’s actually not what’s happening.'
It’s Time to Start Calling “Megadonors” What They Really Are
Americans should be alarmed and outraged at the role money is playing in their democracy.
slate.com
January 24, 2025 at 1:44 PM
'Megadonor is a term that oligarchs themselves are much more comfortable with because the base of the word is “to donate,” as if what you’re doing is altruistic or selfless. But that’s actually not what’s happening.'
Reposted by markthomsen79.bsky.social
Interesting piece in NYT on the Trump attacks on US universities. Suspect the European Radical Right will copy this, eg. the new Dutch govt is already slashing university funding
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/o...
Opinion | Harvard Has Already Capitulated to Trump’s War on Academia
The administration is trying to assert political control over American higher education.
www.nytimes.com
January 25, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Interesting piece in NYT on the Trump attacks on US universities. Suspect the European Radical Right will copy this, eg. the new Dutch govt is already slashing university funding
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/o...