Mario D.
@longevitycapital.bsky.social
Finance & macro, family, hiking outdoors, food. 🇨🇭
Reposted by Mario D.
Some people go to Paris to visit the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower or Jim Morrison’s grave. I’m visiting the birthplace of the eurodollar market. 🤩
September 3, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Some people go to Paris to visit the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower or Jim Morrison’s grave. I’m visiting the birthplace of the eurodollar market. 🤩
Reposted by Mario D.
Following my EU "Wall of Shame" post this weekend, I got a lot of requests to add countries. This "Wall of Shame" adds the Baltics, Sweden, Finland and France. Countries in orange have cracked down on transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Countries in blue keep looking the other way for 3 years.
August 26, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Following my EU "Wall of Shame" post this weekend, I got a lot of requests to add countries. This "Wall of Shame" adds the Baltics, Sweden, Finland and France. Countries in orange have cracked down on transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Countries in blue keep looking the other way for 3 years.
Reposted by Mario D.
Dear journalists:
The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her.
Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.
The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her.
Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.
August 26, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Dear journalists:
The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her.
Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.
The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her.
Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.
Reposted by Mario D.
All things considered, you have to look far and wide to find an expert who believes that attacking the Fed in this fashion will lead to good outcomes for the economy. Biggest risk here is the inflation trouble Trump is already stoking with his tariffs gets even worse amid Fed credibility fears.
August 26, 2025 at 12:43 AM
All things considered, you have to look far and wide to find an expert who believes that attacking the Fed in this fashion will lead to good outcomes for the economy. Biggest risk here is the inflation trouble Trump is already stoking with his tariffs gets even worse amid Fed credibility fears.
Reposted by Mario D.
Seeing the gas really come out of some shitcoins. Does it indicate a larger liquidity pullback?
August 25, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Seeing the gas really come out of some shitcoins. Does it indicate a larger liquidity pullback?
Reposted by Mario D.
It's actually not possible to drive a truck from Germany to Kyrgyzstan without passing through Russia. So no surprise that much of what Germany says gets exported to Kyrgyzstan (black) never actually gets there (blue). Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. Stuff never goes there...
August 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM
It's actually not possible to drive a truck from Germany to Kyrgyzstan without passing through Russia. So no surprise that much of what Germany says gets exported to Kyrgyzstan (black) never actually gets there (blue). Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. Stuff never goes there...
World' No. 1 investing expert 🤪
June 5, 2025 at 11:42 AM
World' No. 1 investing expert 🤪
Reposted by Mario D.
Kudos to Evercore ISI, which has waded into the latest US kerfuffle with a question that everyone is probably asking, but you won’t see many investment analysts squarely address. on.ft.com/3FENrYz
‘If Trump defies a Supreme Court order, will it matter to markets?’
[FREE TO READ] Uncomfortable sell-side headlines for $1,000 please Alex
on.ft.com
March 18, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Kudos to Evercore ISI, which has waded into the latest US kerfuffle with a question that everyone is probably asking, but you won’t see many investment analysts squarely address. on.ft.com/3FENrYz
Reposted by Mario D.
March 7, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Reposted by Mario D.
The German fiscal move is a bit like an emergency 100bps rate cut. You welcome it, but at the same time part of you thinks omfg are things THAT bad?! 🤣
March 5, 2025 at 10:47 PM
The German fiscal move is a bit like an emergency 100bps rate cut. You welcome it, but at the same time part of you thinks omfg are things THAT bad?! 🤣
Reposted by Mario D.
I had plans for a bunch of cool things I wanted to build in 2025.
Instead I’m writing about on-again-off-again trade wars.
I’m sure this is really helping the productivity crisis.
Instead I’m writing about on-again-off-again trade wars.
I’m sure this is really helping the productivity crisis.
March 5, 2025 at 2:59 PM
I had plans for a bunch of cool things I wanted to build in 2025.
Instead I’m writing about on-again-off-again trade wars.
I’m sure this is really helping the productivity crisis.
Instead I’m writing about on-again-off-again trade wars.
I’m sure this is really helping the productivity crisis.
Reposted by Mario D.
Surging demand in 2x leveraged ETFs after last week selloff shows BTFD is a tough habit to break after 15yrs of success. Eventually this will shift, and it will be a shock to those extrapolating their recent experience into the future.
February 4, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Surging demand in 2x leveraged ETFs after last week selloff shows BTFD is a tough habit to break after 15yrs of success. Eventually this will shift, and it will be a shock to those extrapolating their recent experience into the future.
Reposted by Mario D.
Then I guess we owe 🇨🇦 a lot of real goods and services. Because that’s what 🇺🇸 got in exchange for their money.
“They owe us a lot of money…”
I go back to my model where rational agents project the primary fiscal surplus to infinity to determine the price level.
I go back to my model where rational agents project the primary fiscal surplus to infinity to determine the price level.
Trump’s full quote about the Trudeau call goes on to downplay expectations for a deal. “And I don't expect anything very dramatic. We put tariffs on. They owe us a lot of money, and I'm sure they're going to pay.”
February 3, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Then I guess we owe 🇨🇦 a lot of real goods and services. Because that’s what 🇺🇸 got in exchange for their money.
Reposted by Mario D.
it's up! my thoughts on HSBC. also some general truisms on the investment banking industry and a joke about "a hydra with many co-heads"
www.ft.com/content/97f2...
www.ft.com/content/97f2...
Elhedery grasps the HSBC nettle
The bank’s retreat in parts of investment banking marks a change after a long journey in the business
www.ft.com
January 31, 2025 at 6:22 PM
it's up! my thoughts on HSBC. also some general truisms on the investment banking industry and a joke about "a hydra with many co-heads"
www.ft.com/content/97f2...
www.ft.com/content/97f2...
Reposted by Mario D.
Stocks are up cause of Jevons Paradox. As soon as they went down in price, everyone could afford to buy more of them.
January 28, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Stocks are up cause of Jevons Paradox. As soon as they went down in price, everyone could afford to buy more of them.
Reposted by Mario D.
“Getting Trump, a notorious grifter, into crypto, an industry ripe with grift, may have been a mistake” - crypto grifters
January 24, 2025 at 10:07 AM
“Getting Trump, a notorious grifter, into crypto, an industry ripe with grift, may have been a mistake” - crypto grifters
Reposted by Mario D.
a look at executive orders in the president’s first 100 days in office since obama:
January 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM
a look at executive orders in the president’s first 100 days in office since obama:
Reposted by Mario D.
IYKYK @pineconemacro.bsky.social ...
January 20, 2025 at 1:58 AM
IYKYK @pineconemacro.bsky.social ...
Reposted by Mario D.
Think of the components. Fed has an inflation target of 2% PCE which is approximately 2.3-2.4% CPI. Add what you think is a non-QE era real rate (minimum before 2008 was 2%). So bonds should be somewhere above 4.4. Highest I can imagine is real 4% so max 6.4. Avg 5.4
January 14, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Think of the components. Fed has an inflation target of 2% PCE which is approximately 2.3-2.4% CPI. Add what you think is a non-QE era real rate (minimum before 2008 was 2%). So bonds should be somewhere above 4.4. Highest I can imagine is real 4% so max 6.4. Avg 5.4
Reposted by Mario D.
Reposted by Mario D.
There are bonds in the stocks.
January 8, 2025 at 12:17 AM
There are bonds in the stocks.
Reposted by Mario D.
My latest post on @alphaville.ft.com on the paradoxes and contradictions in the business model of serial bitcoin accumulator MicroStrategy www.ft.com/content/e25e...
January 6, 2025 at 1:58 PM
My latest post on @alphaville.ft.com on the paradoxes and contradictions in the business model of serial bitcoin accumulator MicroStrategy www.ft.com/content/e25e...
Reposted by Mario D.
1/7
It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Global Economy Braces for 1930s-Style Unilateralism
China’s decision this week to let its currency weaken against the dollar past a level it had defended for weeks highlights the potential for 2025 to see major tensions over exchange-rate policy.
www.bloomberg.com
January 5, 2025 at 5:00 AM
1/7
It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Why is $MSTR the largest position in the iShares Automation & Robotics ETF?
December 30, 2024 at 3:08 PM
Why is $MSTR the largest position in the iShares Automation & Robotics ETF?
Reposted by Mario D.
Crazy year with the Treasury issuing approximately $1.7T net coupons, FRNs and TIPs to non-official private markets. That is more than a 70% increase over 2023. Dealers got the job done
December 24, 2024 at 5:23 PM
Crazy year with the Treasury issuing approximately $1.7T net coupons, FRNs and TIPs to non-official private markets. That is more than a 70% increase over 2023. Dealers got the job done