Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Classic FTQ price action so reminiscent of the 2010s
November 14, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Classic FTQ price action so reminiscent of the 2010s
Largest duration dump on deck as the US Treasury is to auction $25B new Long bonds at 1 pm. 30s have been outperforming the belly past few days as the market sets up for Thanksgiving auctions that are usually challenging.
November 13, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Largest duration dump on deck as the US Treasury is to auction $25B new Long bonds at 1 pm. 30s have been outperforming the belly past few days as the market sets up for Thanksgiving auctions that are usually challenging.
US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.
November 12, 2025 at 1:49 PM
US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.
Weekly ADP giving Ts a bid
November 11, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Weekly ADP giving Ts a bid
Good news from DC and supply have been pressuring Ts since the Globex open. Long-end did find a relative bid this morning with 5s30s reversing a bit below 100 bps. 3y auction coming up at 1 pm
November 10, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Good news from DC and supply have been pressuring Ts since the Globex open. Long-end did find a relative bid this morning with 5s30s reversing a bit below 100 bps. 3y auction coming up at 1 pm
USTs want to rally but supply next week keeping them relatively grounded. It's a refunding month so new 10s and 30s which are of the larger variety. Also an early 3y auction on Monday with V-day on Tues
November 7, 2025 at 3:12 PM
USTs want to rally but supply next week keeping them relatively grounded. It's a refunding month so new 10s and 30s which are of the larger variety. Also an early 3y auction on Monday with V-day on Tues
Consumers not that happy
November 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Consumers not that happy
Canada's employment data in 15 mins
November 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Canada's employment data in 15 mins
Revelio Labs says US lost -9100 non farm jobs in Oct
November 6, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Revelio Labs says US lost -9100 non farm jobs in Oct
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
November 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
Service PMIs coming up next. Again with no govt data, the employment measures should have an impact on Ts
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Service PMIs coming up next. Again with no govt data, the employment measures should have an impact on Ts
As shutdown drags on and government economic data get delayed, ADP is back in the spotlight this morning as a key measure of the labor market.
A Desultory Print No More.
A Desultory Print No More.
November 5, 2025 at 12:44 PM
As shutdown drags on and government economic data get delayed, ADP is back in the spotlight this morning as a key measure of the labor market.
A Desultory Print No More.
A Desultory Print No More.
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
November 4, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
Because of overnight rate volatility, it has hard to pinpoint the odds, but Dec Fed cut probability remaining firm at 60% (ish)
November 4, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Because of overnight rate volatility, it has hard to pinpoint the odds, but Dec Fed cut probability remaining firm at 60% (ish)
Alphabet deal like the meta deal last week is across the curve with longest a 50y
November 3, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Alphabet deal like the meta deal last week is across the curve with longest a 50y
Waller full on audition mode for Fed chair
October 31, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Waller full on audition mode for Fed chair
There has been aggressive selling of Ts into the past few month-end extensions. Hoping for a less spooky version today with QRA coming up next week.
October 31, 2025 at 1:36 PM
There has been aggressive selling of Ts into the past few month-end extensions. Hoping for a less spooky version today with QRA coming up next week.
Still underutilized IMO but highest usage ($20B) of SRF since it became permanent
October 31, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Still underutilized IMO but highest usage ($20B) of SRF since it became permanent
A bit of rate path rethink after Powell and the FOMC yesterday with terminal now solidly above 3% (using SR3).
October 30, 2025 at 1:26 PM
A bit of rate path rethink after Powell and the FOMC yesterday with terminal now solidly above 3% (using SR3).
Meta's mega deal is across the curve with the longest tranche 40y.
October 30, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Meta's mega deal is across the curve with the longest tranche 40y.
Should be a rather gnarly FOMC for serfers today
October 29, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Should be a rather gnarly FOMC for serfers today
With overnight SOFR elevating above IOR by the most this cycle, some talk that the Fed will need to address this beyond ending QT. While it is tempting to think they will adjust administered rates, the 2019 playbook relied mostly on term RPs.
October 29, 2025 at 12:14 PM
With overnight SOFR elevating above IOR by the most this cycle, some talk that the Fed will need to address this beyond ending QT. While it is tempting to think they will adjust administered rates, the 2019 playbook relied mostly on term RPs.
With a long history behind it, the Conference Board's labor market gauge is probably the best we can do with the govt data blackout. Oct print coming up at 10 am
October 28, 2025 at 1:49 PM
With a long history behind it, the Conference Board's labor market gauge is probably the best we can do with the govt data blackout. Oct print coming up at 10 am
Sneaky long-end bid probably related to the QRA next week with some speculation Treasury may cut back coupon issuance. Doubt it happens but bid should remain until then. Clear shot for month-end though with Fed cutting tomorrow and not much to deter the whole curve
October 28, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Sneaky long-end bid probably related to the QRA next week with some speculation Treasury may cut back coupon issuance. Doubt it happens but bid should remain until then. Clear shot for month-end though with Fed cutting tomorrow and not much to deter the whole curve
Lidar stocks making a nice move higher today
October 27, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Lidar stocks making a nice move higher today