Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
January 6, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Silver's purchasing power exploding in terms of crude. NB April 2020 was the pandemic related Oil price craziness
New Investment Grade issuance will ramp up now that year-end turn is out of the way. 20 borrowers lining up to issue debt today
January 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM
New Investment Grade issuance will ramp up now that year-end turn is out of the way. 20 borrowers lining up to issue debt today
The Kevins are currently neck and neck on Kalshi and the imminent decision may matter more to USTs than this week's payrolls, at least in the short run.
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
January 5, 2026 at 12:31 PM
The Kevins are currently neck and neck on Kalshi and the imminent decision may matter more to USTs than this week's payrolls, at least in the short run.
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
kalshi.com/markets/kxfe...
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
January 2, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Gold Silver ratio is historically oversold here which should keep Silver vol high in the near term
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
January 2, 2026 at 2:47 PM
Dec S&P Global US manufacturing blurb
Happy New Year. Wishing you all a Joyous 2026 ❤️
January 1, 2026 at 12:33 AM
Happy New Year. Wishing you all a Joyous 2026 ❤️
Silver having a dramatic Sunday night reversal. Surprised it happened in the overnight session
December 29, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Silver having a dramatic Sunday night reversal. Surprised it happened in the overnight session
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
December 26, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Based on this metric, this is the most overbought Silver has ever been. Current silver price is now 77% above its 200 Day Moving Average
What would be funner for Xmas Eve than a big scary tail. Let's make the last coupon auction of 2025 memorable.
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
December 24, 2025 at 4:19 PM
What would be funner for Xmas Eve than a big scary tail. Let's make the last coupon auction of 2025 memorable.
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce...
Silver topping out a bit after matching the 2011 epic run last night at 72% above 200DMA
December 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Silver topping out a bit after matching the 2011 epic run last night at 72% above 200DMA
CB's labor market gauge with another new low print
December 23, 2025 at 3:03 PM
CB's labor market gauge with another new low print
Xmas week auctions can be nasty. GDP was a nice trigger for smashing 5s
December 23, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Xmas week auctions can be nasty. GDP was a nice trigger for smashing 5s
Current surge in Silver is now at epic status as the price of the precious metal is now 69% above its 200 DMA
December 23, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Current surge in Silver is now at epic status as the price of the precious metal is now 69% above its 200 DMA
Outside the QE era, the UST belly (specifically 5s) does not get much richer than it is currently. Fading the belly tactically should pay off going forward. Trump's Fed chair decision has been supportive of 5s but the effect should fade after the pick is announced.
2s5s30s 'fly
2s5s30s 'fly
December 22, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Outside the QE era, the UST belly (specifically 5s) does not get much richer than it is currently. Fading the belly tactically should pay off going forward. Trump's Fed chair decision has been supportive of 5s but the effect should fade after the pick is announced.
2s5s30s 'fly
2s5s30s 'fly
Williams: No sense of urgency to adjust rates further
December 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Williams: No sense of urgency to adjust rates further
Comparing bubbles. Log chart of NDX
December 18, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Comparing bubbles. Log chart of NDX
Reposted by Ed Bradford
This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)
December 18, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)
The reaction seems somewhat muted. I think some caveats on adjustments for Oct and year-end dynamics at play here
December 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The reaction seems somewhat muted. I think some caveats on adjustments for Oct and year-end dynamics at play here
I guess we are expecting a soft core print
December 18, 2025 at 1:23 PM
I guess we are expecting a soft core print
A pre-Christmas bonanza of UST supply in the next week with 20s and 5y TIPs this week and 2s, 5s and 7s early next. Will be challenging with Holiday prep taking over.
December 17, 2025 at 1:47 PM
A pre-Christmas bonanza of UST supply in the next week with 20s and 5y TIPs this week and 2s, 5s and 7s early next. Will be challenging with Holiday prep taking over.
Trump to interview Waller for Fed chair.
December 16, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Trump to interview Waller for Fed chair.
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
December 16, 2025 at 4:59 PM
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
December 16, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
Tame wages and UER at cycle high
December 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Tame wages and UER at cycle high