Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Great article and yes I agree with gist. Of course, reserves are no longer abundant but some of the recent turmoil is TGA related with the enormous number of TBills issued and govt shutdown ballooning the account. Add in year-end agita building up and this isn't too suprising. Perspective vs '19
November 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Great article and yes I agree with gist. Of course, reserves are no longer abundant but some of the recent turmoil is TGA related with the enormous number of TBills issued and govt shutdown ballooning the account. Add in year-end agita building up and this isn't too suprising. Perspective vs '19
Consumers not that happy
November 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Consumers not that happy
Canada's unemployment rate has a nice downtick
November 7, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Canada's unemployment rate has a nice downtick
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
November 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
FWIW here is ADP's high frequency weekly labor market gauge end Oct 10
November 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
FWIW here is ADP's high frequency weekly labor market gauge end Oct 10
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
November 4, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
A bit of rate path rethink after Powell and the FOMC yesterday with terminal now solidly above 3% (using SR3).
October 30, 2025 at 1:26 PM
A bit of rate path rethink after Powell and the FOMC yesterday with terminal now solidly above 3% (using SR3).
With overnight SOFR elevating above IOR by the most this cycle, some talk that the Fed will need to address this beyond ending QT. While it is tempting to think they will adjust administered rates, the 2019 playbook relied mostly on term RPs.
October 29, 2025 at 12:14 PM
With overnight SOFR elevating above IOR by the most this cycle, some talk that the Fed will need to address this beyond ending QT. While it is tempting to think they will adjust administered rates, the 2019 playbook relied mostly on term RPs.
A smallish improvement vs Sept
October 28, 2025 at 2:03 PM
A smallish improvement vs Sept
Lidar stocks making a nice move higher today
October 27, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Lidar stocks making a nice move higher today
No surprise to see some front-end pressure with double auctions today. 5s30s pressing lower and now around 96 bps. Even if you are structurally short the belly currently, these are nice flip levels
October 27, 2025 at 1:52 PM
No surprise to see some front-end pressure with double auctions today. 5s30s pressing lower and now around 96 bps. Even if you are structurally short the belly currently, these are nice flip levels
Nice across the curve UST rally in the face of supply. Chatter of the Treasury reducing coupon issuance at the next QRA is probably part of the bid, but I think it is too early for any change like that. The rally is most likely just asset allocation related out of stocks
October 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Nice across the curve UST rally in the face of supply. Chatter of the Treasury reducing coupon issuance at the next QRA is probably part of the bid, but I think it is too early for any change like that. The rally is most likely just asset allocation related out of stocks
EFFR (4.11 yesterday) elevating closer to IOR suggesting QT end not too far. Powell suggested as much recently
October 17, 2025 at 1:09 PM
EFFR (4.11 yesterday) elevating closer to IOR suggesting QT end not too far. Powell suggested as much recently
A bit of thaw in USTs this morning after Trump downplays China row. 2s though did make a cycle low yield last night at 3.38
October 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
A bit of thaw in USTs this morning after Trump downplays China row. 2s though did make a cycle low yield last night at 3.38
More than two 25 bps cuts being priced for '25. Credit jitters premium
October 16, 2025 at 10:43 PM
More than two 25 bps cuts being priced for '25. Credit jitters premium
As Fed cuts rates and returns on cash deteriorate, economy should reflate and seeds will be planted for the next tightening cycle. Current cut cycle terminal rate back below 3%
October 15, 2025 at 1:51 PM
As Fed cuts rates and returns on cash deteriorate, economy should reflate and seeds will be planted for the next tightening cycle. Current cut cycle terminal rate back below 3%
10s have been a favorite this year as more generous term premium attracted buyers to the tenor. Looking a bit pricey here relative to recent auctions but still enough TP juice to attract a bid.
October 8, 2025 at 4:24 PM
10s have been a favorite this year as more generous term premium attracted buyers to the tenor. Looking a bit pricey here relative to recent auctions but still enough TP juice to attract a bid.
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
October 6, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
With the continued government shutdown, no NFP print but ISM Services does have an employment index to give Ts a but of excitement. The gauge has been relatively weak recently, with Aug at 46.5
October 3, 2025 at 11:37 AM
With the continued government shutdown, no NFP print but ISM Services does have an employment index to give Ts a but of excitement. The gauge has been relatively weak recently, with Aug at 46.5
Another cycle low in the Conference Board's labor market gauge
September 30, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Another cycle low in the Conference Board's labor market gauge
Yen has been the worst anti-USD play and no better measure of that than EURJPY eyeballing ATHs
September 26, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Yen has been the worst anti-USD play and no better measure of that than EURJPY eyeballing ATHs
Silver prices are now 32% above their 200 DMA and definitely overbought but it isn't epic yet.
September 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Silver prices are now 32% above their 200 DMA and definitely overbought but it isn't epic yet.
Swap spreads widened a bit after Fed's Logan floated the idea of moving to a different benchmark rate. She suggested TGCR which is an overnight funding rate for USTs and as such would make the Fed more sensitive to daily funding changes and reduces tail risks of crazy rates like 2019
September 25, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Swap spreads widened a bit after Fed's Logan floated the idea of moving to a different benchmark rate. She suggested TGCR which is an overnight funding rate for USTs and as such would make the Fed more sensitive to daily funding changes and reduces tail risks of crazy rates like 2019
While I am no fan of the belly, 5s have cheapened significantly recently and is well set up for it's auction today.
2s5s30s 'fly
2s5s30s 'fly
September 24, 2025 at 3:36 PM
While I am no fan of the belly, 5s have cheapened significantly recently and is well set up for it's auction today.
2s5s30s 'fly
2s5s30s 'fly