Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
With USTs fully entangled with stocks, hard to manage trades using normal calendar patterns and setups. Will be gnarly through Thanksgiving IMO
November 21, 2025 at 3:41 PM
With USTs fully entangled with stocks, hard to manage trades using normal calendar patterns and setups. Will be gnarly through Thanksgiving IMO
A nice jump in Dec cut odds after stale Sept payrolls showed unemployment at cycle highs (4.4%).
November 20, 2025 at 3:16 PM
A nice jump in Dec cut odds after stale Sept payrolls showed unemployment at cycle highs (4.4%).
BLS Cancels October Jobs Report, Couldn’t Collect Household Data
November 19, 2025 at 5:25 PM
BLS Cancels October Jobs Report, Couldn’t Collect Household Data
With SCOTUS tariff decision looming, long-end has been under pressure lately. Today's new 20y auction will be a good test for near term Thanksgiving price action. Short the belly and front-end seems like the "logical" trade but maybe oversubscribed.
November 19, 2025 at 4:58 PM
With SCOTUS tariff decision looming, long-end has been under pressure lately. Today's new 20y auction will be a good test for near term Thanksgiving price action. Short the belly and front-end seems like the "logical" trade but maybe oversubscribed.
Dec cut odds should move on weekly ADP.
November 18, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Dec cut odds should move on weekly ADP.
Fed's V Chair flagging Beige book next week as key eco print for Dec
November 17, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Fed's V Chair flagging Beige book next week as key eco print for Dec
USTs tried to rally this morning but AMZN benchmark deal has them under pressure again.
November 17, 2025 at 1:18 PM
USTs tried to rally this morning but AMZN benchmark deal has them under pressure again.
Classic FTQ price action so reminiscent of the 2010s
November 14, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Classic FTQ price action so reminiscent of the 2010s
Largest duration dump on deck as the US Treasury is to auction $25B new Long bonds at 1 pm. 30s have been outperforming the belly past few days as the market sets up for Thanksgiving auctions that are usually challenging.
November 13, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Largest duration dump on deck as the US Treasury is to auction $25B new Long bonds at 1 pm. 30s have been outperforming the belly past few days as the market sets up for Thanksgiving auctions that are usually challenging.
US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.
November 12, 2025 at 1:49 PM
US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.
Weekly ADP giving Ts a bid
November 11, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Weekly ADP giving Ts a bid
Good news from DC and supply have been pressuring Ts since the Globex open. Long-end did find a relative bid this morning with 5s30s reversing a bit below 100 bps. 3y auction coming up at 1 pm
November 10, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Good news from DC and supply have been pressuring Ts since the Globex open. Long-end did find a relative bid this morning with 5s30s reversing a bit below 100 bps. 3y auction coming up at 1 pm
USTs want to rally but supply next week keeping them relatively grounded. It's a refunding month so new 10s and 30s which are of the larger variety. Also an early 3y auction on Monday with V-day on Tues
November 7, 2025 at 3:12 PM
USTs want to rally but supply next week keeping them relatively grounded. It's a refunding month so new 10s and 30s which are of the larger variety. Also an early 3y auction on Monday with V-day on Tues
Consumers not that happy
November 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Consumers not that happy
Canada's employment data in 15 mins
November 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Canada's employment data in 15 mins
Revelio Labs says US lost -9100 non farm jobs in Oct
November 6, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Revelio Labs says US lost -9100 non farm jobs in Oct
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
November 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Still soft below 50 ISM employment index
Service PMIs coming up next. Again with no govt data, the employment measures should have an impact on Ts
November 5, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Service PMIs coming up next. Again with no govt data, the employment measures should have an impact on Ts
As shutdown drags on and government economic data get delayed, ADP is back in the spotlight this morning as a key measure of the labor market.
A Desultory Print No More.
A Desultory Print No More.
November 5, 2025 at 12:44 PM
As shutdown drags on and government economic data get delayed, ADP is back in the spotlight this morning as a key measure of the labor market.
A Desultory Print No More.
A Desultory Print No More.
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
November 4, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA
Because of overnight rate volatility, it has hard to pinpoint the odds, but Dec Fed cut probability remaining firm at 60% (ish)
November 4, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Because of overnight rate volatility, it has hard to pinpoint the odds, but Dec Fed cut probability remaining firm at 60% (ish)
Alphabet deal like the meta deal last week is across the curve with longest a 50y
November 3, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Alphabet deal like the meta deal last week is across the curve with longest a 50y
Waller full on audition mode for Fed chair
October 31, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Waller full on audition mode for Fed chair
There has been aggressive selling of Ts into the past few month-end extensions. Hoping for a less spooky version today with QRA coming up next week.
October 31, 2025 at 1:36 PM
There has been aggressive selling of Ts into the past few month-end extensions. Hoping for a less spooky version today with QRA coming up next week.