Ed Bradford
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Thanks for the heads up. Fixed it
November 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
GM
November 14, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Upcoming Futures rolls add to the pressure with the front-end still in negative carry and roll mode.
November 13, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Sorry. I am in V-day mode and not at desk
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 PM
The way it was responding to data and how the curve is acting with the long-end relatively weak which is a clear supply weakness
November 7, 2025 at 7:49 PM
It isn't practical for the Fed to have direct dealings with every small firm. That's what dealers are for to manage funding for smaller accounts
November 7, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Best thing would be central clearing SRF and they are working on it. Not sure it happens in time for this year-end but it will happen soon IMO
November 7, 2025 at 4:13 PM
No they can't net out their repos and that is regulatory hit on month-ends
November 7, 2025 at 4:10 PM
It is open to many, but there are still some accounts that are just too small and use a prime broker for all their financing. My firm was like that. We never dealt directly with the Fed
November 7, 2025 at 4:08 PM
SRF is helping but there is still some regulatory friction esp on month-ends when dealers can't intermediate well, in particular their smaller accounts that can't access SRF. Central clearing would be a huge help
November 7, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Great article and yes I agree with gist. Of course, reserves are no longer abundant but some of the recent turmoil is TGA related with the enormous number of TBills issued and govt shutdown ballooning the account. Add in year-end agita building up and this isn't too suprising. Perspective vs '19
November 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Do you have a gift link?
November 7, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Canada's unemployment rate has a nice downtick
November 7, 2025 at 1:31 PM
They estimate UER 4.4% not exactly comforting
November 6, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Yeah. I don't think we should take any data pt too seriously right now. But the combo of Chi Fed, Challenger and this has the attention of the front-end, esp after the shellacking yesterday. Dec cut odds remain firm
November 6, 2025 at 1:47 PM