Kayly Ober
@kayly.bsky.social
Climate, adaptation, migration, security • Author Groundswell (World Bank) & Migration and Displacement in a Changing Climate (Cambridge)• Also: 🚲🐈🏳️🌈 • Views=own •📍DC (for now)
@nytimes.com I’d like to argue that Pavlovian is a word!
November 11, 2025 at 1:14 AM
@nytimes.com I’d like to argue that Pavlovian is a word!
Reposted by Kayly Ober
As #COP30 kicks off today in Brazil, what are our key messages on human mobility?
The Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, @lossanddamage.bsky.social, @cmdplatform.bsky.social, Pacific Migration Partners & many other brilliant folks have these asks: tinyurl.com/COP30mobilitymessages
The Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, @lossanddamage.bsky.social, @cmdplatform.bsky.social, Pacific Migration Partners & many other brilliant folks have these asks: tinyurl.com/COP30mobilitymessages
November 10, 2025 at 4:31 PM
As #COP30 kicks off today in Brazil, what are our key messages on human mobility?
The Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, @lossanddamage.bsky.social, @cmdplatform.bsky.social, Pacific Migration Partners & many other brilliant folks have these asks: tinyurl.com/COP30mobilitymessages
The Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, @lossanddamage.bsky.social, @cmdplatform.bsky.social, Pacific Migration Partners & many other brilliant folks have these asks: tinyurl.com/COP30mobilitymessages
Looking to understand where and how #climatemobility may play a role at #COP30? Check out the Platform on Disaster Displacement's key messages: disasterdisplacement.org/wp-content/u...
disasterdisplacement.org
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Looking to understand where and how #climatemobility may play a role at #COP30? Check out the Platform on Disaster Displacement's key messages: disasterdisplacement.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
New issue of Forced Migration Review out now on climate change and displacement: 'responses to climate displacement must be proactive, rights-based, and human-centered, moving beyond reactive measures' www.fmreview.org/climate-choi...
FMR 76 - Climate change: Choices for displaced people - Forced Migration Review
www.fmreview.org
November 9, 2025 at 11:07 PM
New issue of Forced Migration Review out now on climate change and displacement: 'responses to climate displacement must be proactive, rights-based, and human-centered, moving beyond reactive measures' www.fmreview.org/climate-choi...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:05 AM
The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
Reposted by Kayly Ober
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
Reposted by Kayly Ober
To put this in scale, Elon Musk's salary from Tesla alone could fund the SNAP program for the entire country into 2034.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk scored a resounding victory on Thursday as shareholders approved a pay package of as much as $878 billion over the next decade, endorsing his vision of morphing the EV maker into an AI and robotics juggernaut.
Tesla shareholders approve $878 billion pay plan for Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk scored a resounding victory on Thursday as shareholders approved a pay package of as much as $878 billion over the next decade, endorsing his vision of morphing the EV maker into an AI and robotics juggernaut.
reut.rs
November 6, 2025 at 10:19 PM
To put this in scale, Elon Musk's salary from Tesla alone could fund the SNAP program for the entire country into 2034.
Reposted by Kayly Ober
November 5, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Reposted by Kayly Ober
New: The FBI is quietly urging ICE agents to properly ID themselves in the field.
In a bulletin to law enforcement last month, it warned of criminals posing as ICE to rob, rape, kidnap—a problem it says now demands national coordination to confront.
By me & @carolinehaskins.bsky.social:
In a bulletin to law enforcement last month, it warned of criminals posing as ICE to rob, rape, kidnap—a problem it says now demands national coordination to confront.
By me & @carolinehaskins.bsky.social:
FBI Warns of Criminals Posing as ICE, Urges Agents to ID Themselves
In a bulletin to law enforcement agencies, the FBI said criminal impersonators are exploiting ICE’s image and urged nationwide coordination to distinguish real operations from fakes.
www.wired.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:34 PM
New: The FBI is quietly urging ICE agents to properly ID themselves in the field.
In a bulletin to law enforcement last month, it warned of criminals posing as ICE to rob, rape, kidnap—a problem it says now demands national coordination to confront.
By me & @carolinehaskins.bsky.social:
In a bulletin to law enforcement last month, it warned of criminals posing as ICE to rob, rape, kidnap—a problem it says now demands national coordination to confront.
By me & @carolinehaskins.bsky.social:
Reposted by Kayly Ober
While the Trump Administration has announced that "No high-level US representatives will go to UN climate talks," there's high support for US participation in the Paris Agreement (and, thus, the climate negotiations) per @yaleclimatecomm.bsky.social .
November 4, 2025 at 3:27 PM
While the Trump Administration has announced that "No high-level US representatives will go to UN climate talks," there's high support for US participation in the Paris Agreement (and, thus, the climate negotiations) per @yaleclimatecomm.bsky.social .
Reposted by Kayly Ober
The 2025 State of the Climate Report is out and as a MUST READ before COP30 gets underway. Check out these first 2 sentences: "We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet’s vital signs are flashing red. "
doi.org/10.1093/bios...
doi.org/10.1093/bios...
The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink
We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer
doi.org
November 2, 2025 at 12:34 PM
The 2025 State of the Climate Report is out and as a MUST READ before COP30 gets underway. Check out these first 2 sentences: "We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet’s vital signs are flashing red. "
doi.org/10.1093/bios...
doi.org/10.1093/bios...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
🧵ICE is detaining US citizens. They are profiling Latinos, going on nothing but their appearance. Many have to provide proof of their citizenship status before getting released. Have we seen this before in America? You betcha! Stay with me, folks. (cont)
www.cbc.ca/news/world/u...
www.cbc.ca/news/world/u...
'No due process': L.A. nurse, veteran among citizens forcefully arrested by ICE amid immigration crackdown | CBC News
Two U.S. citizens whose forceful arrests by ICE were caught on video say federal agents violated their constitutional rights. As backlash against the administration's escalating immigration raids grow...
www.cbc.ca
November 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
🧵ICE is detaining US citizens. They are profiling Latinos, going on nothing but their appearance. Many have to provide proof of their citizenship status before getting released. Have we seen this before in America? You betcha! Stay with me, folks. (cont)
www.cbc.ca/news/world/u...
www.cbc.ca/news/world/u...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Yale lab reports mass killings in Sudan, calls for student activism
The Humanitarian Research Lab was told this week that over 10,000 people in Sudan were killed within three days.
yaledailynews.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Good thread on the nuance of calling Hurricane Melissa a climate disaster
So, I hate to be this guy, but as the director of Yale’s new program on attribution science (!?), uh, most of the commentary on Bluesky about Hurricane Melissa and climate change has been… not quite right
October 31, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Good thread on the nuance of calling Hurricane Melissa a climate disaster
Reposted by Kayly Ober
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
October 31, 2025 at 6:04 PM
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Reposted by Kayly Ober
The US will have no high-level representatives at UN climate talks in Brazil next month, White House confirms www.theguardian.com/environment/...
No high-level US representatives will go to UN climate talks, Trump officials say
Decision to stay away from Cop30 meeting in Brazil underscores administration’s hostility to climate action
www.theguardian.com
October 31, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The US will have no high-level representatives at UN climate talks in Brazil next month, White House confirms www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
NEW: Trump has announced that the US will admit the lowest level of refugees ever at 7,500 in FY 2026. The US will only be admitting as refugees White people from South Africa and "victims of illegal or unjust discrimination," which leaked memos suggest means far-right Europeans.
October 30, 2025 at 5:11 PM
NEW: Trump has announced that the US will admit the lowest level of refugees ever at 7,500 in FY 2026. The US will only be admitting as refugees White people from South Africa and "victims of illegal or unjust discrimination," which leaked memos suggest means far-right Europeans.
Reposted by Kayly Ober
“As early Oct 21 long before it was obvious that Melissa would be a monster storm the model predicted a 50–60% chance that it would reach cat 5, the Google DeepMind team says. On Oct 23 the model estimated the storm had an 80% chance of reaching a cat 5”
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
This ‘impressive’ AI model predicted Hurricane Melissa’s perilous growth
An artificial-intelligence tool is helping to crack the challenge of forecasting hurricane intensity.
www.nature.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:14 AM
“As early Oct 21 long before it was obvious that Melissa would be a monster storm the model predicted a 50–60% chance that it would reach cat 5, the Google DeepMind team says. On Oct 23 the model estimated the storm had an 80% chance of reaching a cat 5”
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
Saying we need to focus more on economics and less on climate change is just saying you don't understand either.
October 27, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Saying we need to focus more on economics and less on climate change is just saying you don't understand either.
Reposted by Kayly Ober
To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
October 28, 2025 at 3:25 PM
To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
This is a weird take. In what world are climate change and poverty not intimately related?
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/b...
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/b...
Bill Gates softens ‘Climate Disaster’ approach, says strategy needs to shift: Interview
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates says countries and leaders need to shift their approach to climate change and focus on 'improving lives'
www.cnbc.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:22 PM
This is a weird take. In what world are climate change and poverty not intimately related?
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/b...
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/b...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
if you see this post, your actions are:
- if you have a spare buck, give it to Wikipedia, then repost this
- if you don't have a spare buck, just repost
your action is mandatory for the world's best source of information to survive
- if you have a spare buck, give it to Wikipedia, then repost this
- if you don't have a spare buck, just repost
your action is mandatory for the world's best source of information to survive
I’ve never donated to Wikipedia before but I set up a small monthly donation as a fuck you to the world’s richest psychopath.
Elon Musk takes aim at Wikipedia
Musk has denounced Wikipedia as "Wokepedia" on X and urged people not to donate to the platform.
www.newsweek.com
December 26, 2024 at 12:03 PM
if you see this post, your actions are:
- if you have a spare buck, give it to Wikipedia, then repost this
- if you don't have a spare buck, just repost
your action is mandatory for the world's best source of information to survive
- if you have a spare buck, give it to Wikipedia, then repost this
- if you don't have a spare buck, just repost
your action is mandatory for the world's best source of information to survive
Reposted by Kayly Ober
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is exactly the storm I'd compare Melissa to. It was the only other time I've seen the Dvorak scale violated above 8.0, and the only other time I've seen a complete ring of -80°F cloud tops (shown here in pink).
October 28, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is exactly the storm I'd compare Melissa to. It was the only other time I've seen the Dvorak scale violated above 8.0, and the only other time I've seen a complete ring of -80°F cloud tops (shown here in pink).
Reposted by Kayly Ober
Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average.
This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9]
davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...
This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9]
davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...
davidubilava.com
October 28, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average.
This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9]
davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...
This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9]
davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...
Reposted by Kayly Ober
If you read my stuff often, you'll probably detect a shift in tone tonight. It felt weird writing it. Truly hoping for the best but my goodness this is bad.
A sinking feeling as we look at Melissa this evening. Here’s an evening update and reaction to what it has done today. Link below or at theeyewall.com
Hurricane Melissa enters the elite club of the 20 most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in the satellite era
And it may not be entirely done strengthening yet
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:22 AM
If you read my stuff often, you'll probably detect a shift in tone tonight. It felt weird writing it. Truly hoping for the best but my goodness this is bad.