Mike Murphy
@mjamurphy.bsky.social
I'm an applied economist interested in how we get better at interacting with natural systems. You can find out more about my research at mjamurphy.com
Personal account, only Scottish football takes guaranteed correct
Personal account, only Scottish football takes guaranteed correct
Plants *do* need CO2 to grow.
They also need a given temperature range.
The damage to *current* crop yields from increasing average temperatures and more erratic rainfall *already* exceeds the gains from increased CO2 fertilization and will continue to worsen
tl;dr- burning coal is bad for plants
They also need a given temperature range.
The damage to *current* crop yields from increasing average temperatures and more erratic rainfall *already* exceeds the gains from increased CO2 fertilization and will continue to worsen
tl;dr- burning coal is bad for plants
Burgum: "CO2 was never a pollutant. When we breathe, we emit CO2. Plants need CO2 to survive and grow. They thrive with more CO2. So the whole endangerment thing opens up an opportunity for the revival of clean, beautiful, American coal."
February 11, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Plants *do* need CO2 to grow.
They also need a given temperature range.
The damage to *current* crop yields from increasing average temperatures and more erratic rainfall *already* exceeds the gains from increased CO2 fertilization and will continue to worsen
tl;dr- burning coal is bad for plants
They also need a given temperature range.
The damage to *current* crop yields from increasing average temperatures and more erratic rainfall *already* exceeds the gains from increased CO2 fertilization and will continue to worsen
tl;dr- burning coal is bad for plants
"Rising costs, along with insurers abandoning risky areas, have pushed millions of Americans into state-run insurers of last resort [...] These are often both expensive and skimpy, and most don’t have enough money to cover potential claims. About 14% of US homes have no insurance at all"
The Insurance Crisis Is About to Get Even Worse
The Trump administration will soon make it the official policy of the US government that greenhouse gases don’t endanger Americans’ well-being and therefore don’t need federal regulation. Insurance co...
www.bloomberg.com
February 11, 2026 at 3:12 PM
"Rising costs, along with insurers abandoning risky areas, have pushed millions of Americans into state-run insurers of last resort [...] These are often both expensive and skimpy, and most don’t have enough money to cover potential claims. About 14% of US homes have no insurance at all"
Reposted by Mike Murphy
February 11, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Reposted by Mike Murphy
BYD passed Ford in 2025 on total vehicle sales — a historic inflection. This isn’t about China “winning”. It’s about legacy auto discovering, too late — that once battery cost curves flip, incumbency stops mattering. This isn’t disruption coming. This is disruption already priced in. #Bettrification
February 11, 2026 at 8:57 AM
BYD passed Ford in 2025 on total vehicle sales — a historic inflection. This isn’t about China “winning”. It’s about legacy auto discovering, too late — that once battery cost curves flip, incumbency stops mattering. This isn’t disruption coming. This is disruption already priced in. #Bettrification
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...
February 10, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...
Severe impacts on Toamasina Madagascar likely from cyclone #Gezani impact
Cyclone #Gezani, now with estimated maximum winds of 110kt (~125mph/205kph), is about to make a direct landfall on Toamasina, Madagascar. Dire situation unfolding. Wishing safety for all in this storm's path.
February 10, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Severe impacts on Toamasina Madagascar likely from cyclone #Gezani impact
Reposted by Mike Murphy
"Farm Bankruptcies Continued to Climb in 2025" www.fb.org/market-intel...
"Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025. This is a 46% increase from 2024"
"Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025. This is a 46% increase from 2024"
February 10, 2026 at 12:46 PM
"Farm Bankruptcies Continued to Climb in 2025" www.fb.org/market-intel...
"Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025. This is a 46% increase from 2024"
"Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025. This is a 46% increase from 2024"
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Everyone working in development economics should read this chapter.
They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.
www.nber.org/papers/w3481...
They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.
www.nber.org/papers/w3481...
February 10, 2026 at 2:11 AM
Everyone working in development economics should read this chapter.
They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.
www.nber.org/papers/w3481...
They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.
www.nber.org/papers/w3481...
Cyclone #Gezani looking likely to have very severe impacts on Toamasina in Madagascar #ClimateCrisis
Cyclone #Gezani is quickly intensifying as it approaches the central east coast of #Madagascar. Gezani is forecast to make landfall near Toamasina and pass close by Antananarivo farther inland, Madagascar's two largest cities. Unfortunately shaping up to be a highly dangerous and impactful storm.
February 10, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Cyclone #Gezani looking likely to have very severe impacts on Toamasina in Madagascar #ClimateCrisis
I am once again begging people to read Marty Weitzman
“The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous: current economic models can’t capture what matters most – the cascading failures and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world – and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”
Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn
States and financial bodies using modelling that ignores shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points
www.theguardian.com
February 10, 2026 at 4:29 AM
I am once again begging people to read Marty Weitzman
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Ebo Taylor, who did for Ghanaian music what his friend Fela Kuti did for Nigeria, has been called the greatest rhythm guitarist in history.
His son Kweku Taylor:
“The world has lost a giant, a colossus of African music, leaving behind an unmatched artistry legacy. Dad, your light will never fade.”
His son Kweku Taylor:
“The world has lost a giant, a colossus of African music, leaving behind an unmatched artistry legacy. Dad, your light will never fade.”
Ebo Taylor, Ghanaian highlife pioneer and guitarist, dies age 90
Taylor, who did for Ghanaian music what his friend Fela Kuti did for Nigeria, has been called the greatest rhythm guitarist in history
www.theguardian.com
February 10, 2026 at 1:11 AM
Ebo Taylor, who did for Ghanaian music what his friend Fela Kuti did for Nigeria, has been called the greatest rhythm guitarist in history.
His son Kweku Taylor:
“The world has lost a giant, a colossus of African music, leaving behind an unmatched artistry legacy. Dad, your light will never fade.”
His son Kweku Taylor:
“The world has lost a giant, a colossus of African music, leaving behind an unmatched artistry legacy. Dad, your light will never fade.”
Endogeneity may prevent dementia
Caffeinated beverages may help protect the brain, study says reut.rs/4bJkx7F
Caffeinated beverages may help protect the brain, study says
Drinking a few cups of caffeinated coffee or tea every day may help in a small way to preserve brain power and prevent dementia, researchers reported on Monday.
reut.rs
February 9, 2026 at 9:38 PM
Endogeneity may prevent dementia
tl;dr - it's the nutrient content, not the processing
For a healthier diet:
- less meat, less sugar, less salt
- more veggies, more legumes
Also makes the under-appreciated point that cooking from scratch requires more labour (typically female & unpaid) that isn't an option for many households.
For a healthier diet:
- less meat, less sugar, less salt
- more veggies, more legumes
Also makes the under-appreciated point that cooking from scratch requires more labour (typically female & unpaid) that isn't an option for many households.
ICYMI @gnrosenberg.bsky.social and I wrote about why you should not want to eat like your great-great-grandparents and why modern, industrially-produced food is "real food."
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/o...
Opinion | We Shouldn’t Want to Eat Like Our Great-Great-Grandparents
www.nytimes.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:18 PM
tl;dr - it's the nutrient content, not the processing
For a healthier diet:
- less meat, less sugar, less salt
- more veggies, more legumes
Also makes the under-appreciated point that cooking from scratch requires more labour (typically female & unpaid) that isn't an option for many households.
For a healthier diet:
- less meat, less sugar, less salt
- more veggies, more legumes
Also makes the under-appreciated point that cooking from scratch requires more labour (typically female & unpaid) that isn't an option for many households.
little gasolina for the elder millenials
February 9, 2026 at 1:24 AM
little gasolina for the elder millenials
The wean is attempting to go to puppybowl.com/adopt
February 8, 2026 at 11:04 PM
The wean is attempting to go to puppybowl.com/adopt
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Considering the challenge in suggesting we eat more plants, proposing insect products seems ridiculous.
But it's received $1B to try to scale & now ~80B insects are farmed.
It can actually emit as much as some beef & has major risks.
My first in the Drawdown Explorer:
drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
But it's received $1B to try to scale & now ~80B insects are farmed.
It can actually emit as much as some beef & has major risks.
My first in the Drawdown Explorer:
drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
February 6, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Considering the challenge in suggesting we eat more plants, proposing insect products seems ridiculous.
But it's received $1B to try to scale & now ~80B insects are farmed.
It can actually emit as much as some beef & has major risks.
My first in the Drawdown Explorer:
drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
But it's received $1B to try to scale & now ~80B insects are farmed.
It can actually emit as much as some beef & has major risks.
My first in the Drawdown Explorer:
drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
Steffen Murau on possible dollar futures #EconSky
Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau
Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org
February 8, 2026 at 12:27 PM
Steffen Murau on possible dollar futures #EconSky
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Hype bros: we'll have the machine god in the next few years! All of our problems will be solved forever!
Luddites: AI is obviously still as bad as it was that one time I used free ChatGPT in 2023
Reality: steady, moderately fast progress in a way that will disrupt a lot of industries
Luddites: AI is obviously still as bad as it was that one time I used free ChatGPT in 2023
Reality: steady, moderately fast progress in a way that will disrupt a lot of industries
February 7, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Hype bros: we'll have the machine god in the next few years! All of our problems will be solved forever!
Luddites: AI is obviously still as bad as it was that one time I used free ChatGPT in 2023
Reality: steady, moderately fast progress in a way that will disrupt a lot of industries
Luddites: AI is obviously still as bad as it was that one time I used free ChatGPT in 2023
Reality: steady, moderately fast progress in a way that will disrupt a lot of industries
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Reactions to this week's newsletter have ranged from, "This is an absurd premise," to, "This is happening already in my city." So, pretty much what I've come to expect from writing about the energy economy.
insideclimatenews.org/news/0502202...
insideclimatenews.org/news/0502202...
Looking Ahead to When Gas Stations Vanish - Inside Climate News
Leaders should plan for declining demand that will undermine the viability of fossil fuel businesses. New research says it could happen sooner than we think.
insideclimatenews.org
February 6, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Reactions to this week's newsletter have ranged from, "This is an absurd premise," to, "This is happening already in my city." So, pretty much what I've come to expect from writing about the energy economy.
insideclimatenews.org/news/0502202...
insideclimatenews.org/news/0502202...
Reposted by Mike Murphy
I see a lot of econ/socsci Bluesky asking for AI starter advice. IMO the highest impact, low cost tweak to your workflow is training an AI to follow *your* coding/writing prefs & habits.
Literally, tell Claude: "Look at <XYZ dirs>. ID common themes, styles & conventions. Write them to a .md file."
Literally, tell Claude: "Look at <XYZ dirs>. ID common themes, styles & conventions. Write them to a .md file."
January 12, 2026 at 9:14 PM
I see a lot of econ/socsci Bluesky asking for AI starter advice. IMO the highest impact, low cost tweak to your workflow is training an AI to follow *your* coding/writing prefs & habits.
Literally, tell Claude: "Look at <XYZ dirs>. ID common themes, styles & conventions. Write them to a .md file."
Literally, tell Claude: "Look at <XYZ dirs>. ID common themes, styles & conventions. Write them to a .md file."
It's wild that the Epstein files may bring down the UK government and have zero impact on the US government
February 6, 2026 at 3:39 AM
It's wild that the Epstein files may bring down the UK government and have zero impact on the US government
Oct 2024 / Feb 2026
February 5, 2026 at 2:47 PM
Oct 2024 / Feb 2026
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Famine is spreading in Sudan’s western Darfur region and has now engulfed two more towns there, a global hunger monitoring group said.
Famine spreads to more towns in Sudan’s Darfur region, hunger experts say as war rages on
A global hunger monitoring group says that famine is spreading in war-torn Sudan’s western Darfur region and has now engulfed two more towns there.
bit.ly
February 5, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Famine is spreading in Sudan’s western Darfur region and has now engulfed two more towns there, a global hunger monitoring group said.