Mike Murphy
@mjamurphy.bsky.social
I'm an applied economist interested in how we get better at interacting with natural systems.
I am a 2025/26 job market candidate, you can find out more about my research at mjamurphy.com
Personal account, only Scottish football takes guaranteed correct
I am a 2025/26 job market candidate, you can find out more about my research at mjamurphy.com
Personal account, only Scottish football takes guaranteed correct
"there is so much alpha in books"
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 AM
"there is so much alpha in books"
Reposted by Mike Murphy
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
November 10, 2025 at 4:58 PM
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
Sawing away at the plank we're standing on
This can’t be happening
Canada has lost its measles elimination status after more than 25 years
Canada has lost its measles elimination status after more than 25 years
November 11, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Sawing away at the plank we're standing on
We have choices to make about the world we are passing to our children.
We should talk about them more.
We should talk about them more.
What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century
Many places may become uninhabitable. Many people may be on their own.
www.theatlantic.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:52 PM
We have choices to make about the world we are passing to our children.
We should talk about them more.
We should talk about them more.
Meanwhile, in Scotland
The new British competitive knitting show hosted by Olympic diver Tom Daley has been denounced by the knitting community of the Shetland islands for its imprecise portrayal of fair isle knitting and negative attitude toward a technique known as steeking
Shetland knitting group ‘shocked and saddened’ by representation in Channel 4 show
A GROUP protecting Shetland’s knitting heritage has criticised a new Channel 4 show for spreading “negative misconceptions about Fair Isle knitting...
www.shetnews.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Meanwhile, in Scotland
As with most problems, talking about it more now may seem tough, but it sure beats talking about it more later.
The Post (me and @kcrowebasspro.bsky.social) analyzed the social media posts and appearances of prominent politicians across the country.
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
We found that no one is talking about climate change anymore. In 2025, mentions are 60% lower than in 2024.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
November 10, 2025 at 4:36 PM
As with most problems, talking about it more now may seem tough, but it sure beats talking about it more later.
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Flu (and/or COVID) vaccines reduce *HEART FAILURE* (consider this your regular reminder to get yours)
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
November 10, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Flu (and/or COVID) vaccines reduce *HEART FAILURE* (consider this your regular reminder to get yours)
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
academic.oup.com/eurheartj/ar...
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Hey fellow alums: if you'd like to voice your displeasure, here is the contact info for Cornell President, Michael Kotlikoff.
(607) 255-5201
president@cornell.edu
(607) 255-5201
president@cornell.edu
BREAKING: Cornell caved.
Here is the settlement agreement, signed today by the university's president, Michael Kotlikoff: statements.cornell.edu/2025/documen...
Here is the settlement agreement, signed today by the university's president, Michael Kotlikoff: statements.cornell.edu/2025/documen...
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Hey fellow alums: if you'd like to voice your displeasure, here is the contact info for Cornell President, Michael Kotlikoff.
(607) 255-5201
president@cornell.edu
(607) 255-5201
president@cornell.edu
Reposted by Mike Murphy
ICYMI: Microsoft’s charge “implies a more than $12 billion quarterly loss at OpenAI, said Firoz Valliji, an analyst at Bernstein.”
That “would mark one of the largest single-quarter losses for a tech company in history.”
@jessefelder.bsky.social $MSFT
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
That “would mark one of the largest single-quarter losses for a tech company in history.”
@jessefelder.bsky.social $MSFT
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
November 7, 2025 at 7:17 PM
ICYMI: Microsoft’s charge “implies a more than $12 billion quarterly loss at OpenAI, said Firoz Valliji, an analyst at Bernstein.”
That “would mark one of the largest single-quarter losses for a tech company in history.”
@jessefelder.bsky.social $MSFT
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
That “would mark one of the largest single-quarter losses for a tech company in history.”
@jessefelder.bsky.social $MSFT
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
Thoughts with all the talented faculty and students at Cornell whose freedom to conduct academic inquiry has been betrayed by the university administration.
BREAKING: Cornell caved.
Here is the settlement agreement, signed today by the university's president, Michael Kotlikoff: statements.cornell.edu/2025/documen...
Here is the settlement agreement, signed today by the university's president, Michael Kotlikoff: statements.cornell.edu/2025/documen...
November 7, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Thoughts with all the talented faculty and students at Cornell whose freedom to conduct academic inquiry has been betrayed by the university administration.
Reposted by Mike Murphy
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
Reposted by Mike Murphy
has anyone seeing this purchased the corelogic climate scores product, or worked on it? or know someone who has done either? and is willing to chat about it?
November 6, 2025 at 10:08 PM
has anyone seeing this purchased the corelogic climate scores product, or worked on it? or know someone who has done either? and is willing to chat about it?
Hi all, please spread the word and we hope everyone can make good use of this new data drop: cmfdata.org
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
Historical Census of Manufactures Microdata - Historical Census of Manufactures Microdata
CMFdata.org
November 6, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
"In Australia, no permit is required for a standard installation [...]
By contrast, the U.S. system involves multiple layers of approval—building and electrical permits, several inspections, and a Permission-to-Operate from the local utility."
By contrast, the U.S. system involves multiple layers of approval—building and electrical permits, several inspections, and a Permission-to-Operate from the local utility."
Here Comes the Sun—If We Let It: Cutting Tariffs and Red Tape for Rooftop Solar - Marginal REVOLUTION
Australia has so much rooftop solar power that some states are offering free electricity during peak hours: TechCrunch: For years, Australians have been been installing solar panels at a rapid clip. N...
marginalrevolution.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:51 PM
"In Australia, no permit is required for a standard installation [...]
By contrast, the U.S. system involves multiple layers of approval—building and electrical permits, several inspections, and a Permission-to-Operate from the local utility."
By contrast, the U.S. system involves multiple layers of approval—building and electrical permits, several inspections, and a Permission-to-Operate from the local utility."
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Vital piece of investigative reporting from Sky. They've uncovered the X algorithm which feeds users extremist right wing material from the moment they join the site. It is a far-right radicalisation engine, by design.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Vital piece of investigative reporting from Sky. They've uncovered the X algorithm which feeds users extremist right wing material from the moment they join the site. It is a far-right radicalisation engine, by design.
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
news.sky.com/story/the-x-...
Reposted by Mike Murphy
What is happening in Darfur is utterly devastating, made more painful by how we all saw it coming. You can’t really say you didn’t know, but if you didn’t, read this:
An atrocity foretold: How the RSF siege of El Fasher turned into genocidal slaughter
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/202...
An atrocity foretold: How the RSF siege of El Fasher turned into genocidal slaughter
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/202...
An atrocity foretold: How the RSF siege of El Fasher turned into genocidal slaughter
Communication networks are down but a deluge of shocking videos point to mass killings on a devastating scale.
www.thenewhumanitarian.org
November 5, 2025 at 8:12 AM
What is happening in Darfur is utterly devastating, made more painful by how we all saw it coming. You can’t really say you didn’t know, but if you didn’t, read this:
An atrocity foretold: How the RSF siege of El Fasher turned into genocidal slaughter
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/202...
An atrocity foretold: How the RSF siege of El Fasher turned into genocidal slaughter
www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/202...
Today, as ever, is a good day to encourage friends, family and colleagues to get off of Twitter.
The effect of extremist propaganda on you is a lot stronger than any marginal effect you will have on public discourse.
The effect of extremist propaganda on you is a lot stronger than any marginal effect you will have on public discourse.
How the world's richest man is boosting the British right
How the world's richest man is boosting the British right
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Today, as ever, is a good day to encourage friends, family and colleagues to get off of Twitter.
The effect of extremist propaganda on you is a lot stronger than any marginal effect you will have on public discourse.
The effect of extremist propaganda on you is a lot stronger than any marginal effect you will have on public discourse.
The interviewer understandably tries to get her to confirm discussions with the government, but unfortunately does not ask the simpler question of why OpenAI requires a "backstop" for chip financing.
OpenAI Wants Federal Backstop for New Investments
Sarah Friar, the CFO of OpenAI, says the company wants a federal guarantee to make it easier to finance massive investments in AI chips for data centers. Friar spoke at WSJ’s Tech Live event in Califo...
finance.yahoo.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:40 AM
The interviewer understandably tries to get her to confirm discussions with the government, but unfortunately does not ask the simpler question of why OpenAI requires a "backstop" for chip financing.
Reposted by Mike Murphy
This company has a stock market valuation of $1.6 trillion. More jaw-dropping reporting by @jeffhorwitz.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
November 6, 2025 at 11:31 AM
This company has a stock market valuation of $1.6 trillion. More jaw-dropping reporting by @jeffhorwitz.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
super
New data on the #EconJobMarket as of Nov 2. Based on total # of job listings on JOE, this year continues to be even weaker (by 11%) than during COVID (2020). 1/many #EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 2:32 AM
super
👀
BREAKING: OpenAI is requesting US government support to help guarantee financing for the massive investments in AI chips and data centers it needs for expansion, per Bloomberg.
November 6, 2025 at 2:18 AM
👀
Reposted by Mike Murphy
Pertussis cases in Texas are 10x higher than all of 2023, and 2x as high as last year — 4x for the same period. The official count is higher by a 1k than it has been in more than a decade. Last time it was over 2k was 2014 with 2,576. It’s past 3,500 for 2025.
www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/...
www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/...
November 5, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Pertussis cases in Texas are 10x higher than all of 2023, and 2x as high as last year — 4x for the same period. The official count is higher by a 1k than it has been in more than a decade. Last time it was over 2k was 2014 with 2,576. It’s past 3,500 for 2025.
www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/...
www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/...
climate policy is health policy is economic policy
Fig 2 from our Year in Fire report. Here we show smoke days by county in California on average over the past decade and for 2024. There is no future without wildfire smoke. The future CAN be one where we accept the reality of smoke EMISSIONS but actively manage the harms from smoke EXPOSURE.
November 5, 2025 at 7:47 PM
climate policy is health policy is economic policy