John Cluverius
@johncluverius.bsky.social
Political scientist, professor, pollster, parent, partner. Pro-choice, pro-union, and pro-orca.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
Reposted by John Cluverius
I saw someone say on here that Democrats should do local food drives. I see that the Richland County, SC (Columbia) Democratic Party is doing precisely that.
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
Midlands Community Food Drive · Mobilize
On Sunday, November 16, we’re hosting a curbside drop-off event at six convenient locations across the Midlands, and we need you! All donations will go directly to local food pantries serving our neig...
www.mobilize.us
November 10, 2025 at 9:45 PM
I saw someone say on here that Democrats should do local food drives. I see that the Richland County, SC (Columbia) Democratic Party is doing precisely that.
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
Reposted by John Cluverius
This is neither here nor there, but the distinction between a FSA and a HSA is actually pretty monumental — FSAs are use-it-or-lose-it, HSAs are not — and I don't think we actually know which one Trump(/Rick Scott/Bill Cassidy) is talking about in his new concepts of a plan
November 10, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is neither here nor there, but the distinction between a FSA and a HSA is actually pretty monumental — FSAs are use-it-or-lose-it, HSAs are not — and I don't think we actually know which one Trump(/Rick Scott/Bill Cassidy) is talking about in his new concepts of a plan
Reposted by John Cluverius
pikachu-shocked-face-on-charlie-brown-with-lucy-holding-football.jpg
US HOUSE SPEAKER JOHNSON SAID HE WON'T COMMIT TO A VOTE ON ACA SUBSIDIES, I'M TOLD – SEMOFAR REPORTER ON X
November 10, 2025 at 4:59 PM
pikachu-shocked-face-on-charlie-brown-with-lucy-holding-football.jpg
Reposted by John Cluverius
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
November 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Reposted by John Cluverius
I’m seeing convergence on 2 explanations for Dems caving: 1) Trump more willing to inflict pain on public than Dems (Ezra Klein), 2) protect the filibuster
But these are still puzzles (derogatory) because strategic actors should anticipate them. They don’t explain why now
But these are still puzzles (derogatory) because strategic actors should anticipate them. They don’t explain why now
November 10, 2025 at 4:37 PM
I’m seeing convergence on 2 explanations for Dems caving: 1) Trump more willing to inflict pain on public than Dems (Ezra Klein), 2) protect the filibuster
But these are still puzzles (derogatory) because strategic actors should anticipate them. They don’t explain why now
But these are still puzzles (derogatory) because strategic actors should anticipate them. They don’t explain why now
provosts pay attention to things like degree completion.
👏DON'T👏FUCK👏YOUR👏STUDENTS👏
📣 New NBER Working Paper out today 📣
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
November 10, 2025 at 2:48 PM
provosts pay attention to things like degree completion.
again elizabeth holmes has a chance to become a legend.
Ghislaine Maxwell, the Epstein confidante and child sex trafficker, is being waited on “hand and foot” by the staff at her minimum security prison camp while she prepares a request that Donald Trump commute her sentence, according to whistleblower revelations. More on @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
again elizabeth holmes has a chance to become a legend.
Both NH Senators are among the Defecting Democrats.
-MHT is not on the affected airports list.
-Only 5.5% of NH residents get SNAP benefits.
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
-MHT is not on the affected airports list.
-Only 5.5% of NH residents get SNAP benefits.
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Both NH Senators are among the Defecting Democrats.
-MHT is not on the affected airports list.
-Only 5.5% of NH residents get SNAP benefits.
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
-MHT is not on the affected airports list.
-Only 5.5% of NH residents get SNAP benefits.
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
This is 100% correct. And look at the normie primary candidates: Moulton, McMorrow, Mills. They’re all ripshit pissed.
One clear lesson from the outrage at the Eight Enablers in the Senate: normie Democrats online want Democrats to fight too, not just the left. The fight/not-fight dichotomy isn't so much an ideological one as a difference in views of what it means to be a party, including a legislative one.
November 10, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This is 100% correct. And look at the normie primary candidates: Moulton, McMorrow, Mills. They’re all ripshit pissed.
Reposted by John Cluverius
This is absolutely right.
The eight who signed off on this disaster of a deal were acting as a shield for colleagues who are up this cycle. Don't let any of them off the hook just yet.
The eight who signed off on this disaster of a deal were acting as a shield for colleagues who are up this cycle. Don't let any of them off the hook just yet.
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is absolutely right.
The eight who signed off on this disaster of a deal were acting as a shield for colleagues who are up this cycle. Don't let any of them off the hook just yet.
The eight who signed off on this disaster of a deal were acting as a shield for colleagues who are up this cycle. Don't let any of them off the hook just yet.
Reposted by John Cluverius
They literally just gave up. Nancy Pelosi would have kept this caucus together, and we all know it.
Democrats have been fighting for months to address America's healthcare crisis
For the millions who will lose coverage
For people with cancer who won't get the care they need
For working families who can't afford to pay $25K more a year for healthcare
We will keep fighting
For the millions who will lose coverage
For people with cancer who won't get the care they need
For working families who can't afford to pay $25K more a year for healthcare
We will keep fighting
November 10, 2025 at 12:37 PM
They literally just gave up. Nancy Pelosi would have kept this caucus together, and we all know it.
Reposted by John Cluverius
Dems had the upper hand and caved for the guy that is abusing executive power to an astonishing degree
Trump Pardons Giuliani and Others Involved in Effort to Overturn 2020 Election www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/u...
Trump Pardons Giuliani and Others Involved in Effort to Overturn 2020 Election
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Dems had the upper hand and caved for the guy that is abusing executive power to an astonishing degree
Reposted by John Cluverius
This is why this surrender isn't just about this narrow issue but is rather the whole constitutional ballgame:
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Not that he didn’t already know, but now Trump knows for sure he can roll the Dems every time and there’s no need to negotiate for anything
November 10, 2025 at 3:10 AM
This is why this surrender isn't just about this narrow issue but is rather the whole constitutional ballgame:
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
I think Schumer does not appreciate, at all, the volatile political moment. He is effectively the last functional veto point in the Trump agenda. And yet.
The best take on all of this shutdown came from @shannonrwatts.bsky.social who told me this would only end by Republicans killing the filibuster or Democrats caving. That’s it. But Schumer somehow broadcast that Republicans would cave when they never gave any indication they would.
November 10, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I think Schumer does not appreciate, at all, the volatile political moment. He is effectively the last functional veto point in the Trump agenda. And yet.
Sherrill continues to stick to the affordability message that helped her get elected.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Sherrill continues to stick to the affordability message that helped her get elected.
Reposted by John Cluverius
Many people are saying
Fight don’t fold.
November 10, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Many people are saying
Reposted by John Cluverius
i suspect there’s some truth to this and also why we should be EXTREMELY skeptical that senate dems as currently constituted would ditch the filibuster should they ever have a trifecta again
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 AM
i suspect there’s some truth to this and also why we should be EXTREMELY skeptical that senate dems as currently constituted would ditch the filibuster should they ever have a trifecta again
Reposted by John Cluverius
The centrists in the Senate Democratic caucus saw that the country was rallying to the party in the 2025 elections and resolved that they would do anything they could to kill that momentum.
November 10, 2025 at 12:52 AM
The centrists in the Senate Democratic caucus saw that the country was rallying to the party in the 2025 elections and resolved that they would do anything they could to kill that momentum.
Reposted by John Cluverius
i think this is key. taking the deal would amount to taking the blame. it would turn a clear political victory into an unambiguous defeat.
If the Dems blink after all of this, for a deal that all but ensures no ACA subsidies in 2026 anyway, then what was the purpose of letting the shutdown go for 40 days in the first place?
November 10, 2025 at 12:56 AM
i think this is key. taking the deal would amount to taking the blame. it would turn a clear political victory into an unambiguous defeat.
Reposted by John Cluverius
in any case it is wild that voters just sent a huge message and a bunch of senate democrats are all, “it doesn’t look like anything to me”
November 10, 2025 at 1:02 AM
in any case it is wild that voters just sent a huge message and a bunch of senate democrats are all, “it doesn’t look like anything to me”
Democratic Senators were very concerned that their voters had gotten the impression that it was ok to have nice things.
November 10, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Democratic Senators were very concerned that their voters had gotten the impression that it was ok to have nice things.
Nothing pisses me off like willful ignorance of the message the voters are sending.
November 10, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Nothing pisses me off like willful ignorance of the message the voters are sending.
tomorrow's announcement on truth social
darth vader says " i am altering the deal pray i don t alter it any further "
Alt: darth vader says " i am altering the deal pray i don t alter it any further "
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:44 AM
tomorrow's announcement on truth social
Also l what if, on the backend, your period tracking app tweaked the data because, just as a hypothetical, the company shares ownership with a massive surveillance company and again, purely hypothetical, the same shared owner talks a lot in public about who should and should not have more kids?
This is such bullshit because while it is true that the obsessive body monitoring of FAM can give you a more accurate idea of your fertile days than the rhythm method the main failure point is still the same: people like to fuck and they don’t always remember to abstain on unsafe days.
November 9, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Also l what if, on the backend, your period tracking app tweaked the data because, just as a hypothetical, the company shares ownership with a massive surveillance company and again, purely hypothetical, the same shared owner talks a lot in public about who should and should not have more kids?
Something something erasing history.
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
November 9, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Something something erasing history.