John Cluverius
@johncluverius.bsky.social
Political scientist, professor, pollster, parent, partner. Pro-choice, pro-union, and pro-orca.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
The guy who literally wrote the book on regime change said Venezuelan regime change bad
My skeptical take (with Lindsey O'Rourke of Boston College) on regime change in Venezuela.
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela
If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:33 PM
The guy who literally wrote the book on regime change said Venezuelan regime change bad
Reposted by John Cluverius
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
January 3, 2026 at 1:41 PM
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
You know when you have a destabilized country it often helps if you have a longstanding instrument of American soft power that could say, quickly and cheaply deploy basic services anywhere and has already been propping up all sorts of America-friendly institutions.
Missteps, Confusion and ‘Viral Waste’: The 14 Days That Doomed U.S.A.I.D.
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:27 PM
You know when you have a destabilized country it often helps if you have a longstanding instrument of American soft power that could say, quickly and cheaply deploy basic services anywhere and has already been propping up all sorts of America-friendly institutions.
Reposted by John Cluverius
You could make this argument for bombing and regime change in the US. “Donald Trump was ineligible for the presidency in 2024 under the 14th Amendment, and therefore the United States must be bombed to restore democracy.” Somehow I don’t think the pundit class would be so credulous in that case.
January 3, 2026 at 1:53 PM
You could make this argument for bombing and regime change in the US. “Donald Trump was ineligible for the presidency in 2024 under the 14th Amendment, and therefore the United States must be bombed to restore democracy.” Somehow I don’t think the pundit class would be so credulous in that case.
Reposted by John Cluverius
It’s going to be very revealing to see which media actors and outlets embark on a project of defense and moral laundering for this illegal and shockingly reckless war.
January 3, 2026 at 1:55 PM
It’s going to be very revealing to see which media actors and outlets embark on a project of defense and moral laundering for this illegal and shockingly reckless war.
I remember the last time we gassed up a bunch of exiles to take over a regime we decapitated. That worked out great.
/s
/s
January 3, 2026 at 1:03 PM
I remember the last time we gassed up a bunch of exiles to take over a regime we decapitated. That worked out great.
/s
/s
Reposted by John Cluverius
Among the many reasons you don’t kidnap a foreign head of state at gunpoint even if you have the capability, is that it sparks consequences you can neither control nor anticipate.
January 3, 2026 at 10:27 AM
Among the many reasons you don’t kidnap a foreign head of state at gunpoint even if you have the capability, is that it sparks consequences you can neither control nor anticipate.
Seems like waking up was a mistake.
January 3, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Seems like waking up was a mistake.
Reposted by John Cluverius
No one supports a war in Venezuela btw
January 3, 2026 at 6:49 AM
No one supports a war in Venezuela btw
Wait wtf @meredithconroy.bsky.social you said women had an advantage in democratic open seats after 2018
Cowburn & Conroy test their novel theory of asymmetric partisan opportunity for women in primary elections. They are less likely to win highly competitive Democratic primaries. In Republican primaries, women are least likely to win in more conservative districts.
Full article: shorturl.at/lVJVD
Full article: shorturl.at/lVJVD
January 3, 2026 at 4:42 AM
Wait wtf @meredithconroy.bsky.social you said women had an advantage in democratic open seats after 2018
Reposted by John Cluverius
People have no idea how contagious measles is or how explosively outbreaks can spread. Very dangerous.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/inter...
www.washingtonpost.com/health/inter...
January 3, 2026 at 12:52 AM
People have no idea how contagious measles is or how explosively outbreaks can spread. Very dangerous.
www.washingtonpost.com/health/inter...
www.washingtonpost.com/health/inter...
Um attention @massago.bsky.social
“I’m a developer for a major food delivery app. The 'Priority Fee' and 'Driver Benefit Fee' go 100% to the company.
The driver sees $0 of it.”
www.reddit.com/r/confession...
The driver sees $0 of it.”
www.reddit.com/r/confession...
January 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM
Um attention @massago.bsky.social
Reposted by John Cluverius
Fascinating paper by Hood, McKee & Pittman demonstrating that election deniers were less likely to vote in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff election.
If fewer GA Republicans believed the big lie, both GA Senate seats might still be in Republican control.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
If fewer GA Republicans believed the big lie, both GA Senate seats might still be in Republican control.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
January 2, 2026 at 5:11 PM
Fascinating paper by Hood, McKee & Pittman demonstrating that election deniers were less likely to vote in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff election.
If fewer GA Republicans believed the big lie, both GA Senate seats might still be in Republican control.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
If fewer GA Republicans believed the big lie, both GA Senate seats might still be in Republican control.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by John Cluverius
Like, not even GRE scores. SAT scores.
January 2, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Like, not even GRE scores. SAT scores.
kids, don't cook your brain.
Here is the editor of Tablet agreeably reposting someone calling nonwhite NYC immigrants "worthless biotrash." It's astonishing how quickly this stuff has escaped containment
January 2, 2026 at 5:29 PM
kids, don't cook your brain.
i really dislike aesthetic focus on politics because it's so subjective, but we are visual creatures and people like voting for and being governed by a hot couple
In the midst of the slow-motion train wreck, it's nice to have a chic young political power couple to fuss over. We need some Camelot vibes in here
Another shot of Rama Duwaji and her date.
January 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM
i really dislike aesthetic focus on politics because it's so subjective, but we are visual creatures and people like voting for and being governed by a hot couple
it is not exactly the best thing that i'm on a first-name basis with my bookseller.
Cover reveal. It's about how & why colonies/states controlled international & domestic migration until 1888, why in the late 19th c the feds took over, & what it was like for politically disfavored groups to live under that arrangement of power. You can't understand voluntary migration history 1/
January 2, 2026 at 2:27 PM
it is not exactly the best thing that i'm on a first-name basis with my bookseller.
I swear to god people. This shit isn’t rocket science. It’s harder.
sliwa correctly understanding that mamdani ran a very traditional campaign and thus surpassing the analytical ability of 80% if people who comment on politics for a living
this is the most incredible interview i’ve ever read. the aei guy tries so hard to get sliwa to trash mamdani and he simply won’t. he also brings up flaco (rip) unprompted.
www.wsj.com/opinion/free...
www.wsj.com/opinion/free...
January 2, 2026 at 3:35 AM
I swear to god people. This shit isn’t rocket science. It’s harder.
Wait do Lucy Dacus and Rama Duwaji know each other?
Richmond is a socially small town, y’all. They could have overlapped when Duwaji was at VCU.
Richmond is a socially small town, y’all. They could have overlapped when Duwaji was at VCU.
January 2, 2026 at 3:32 AM
Wait do Lucy Dacus and Rama Duwaji know each other?
Richmond is a socially small town, y’all. They could have overlapped when Duwaji was at VCU.
Richmond is a socially small town, y’all. They could have overlapped when Duwaji was at VCU.
One day I’ll tell you all how I learned what “hayati” means.
January 1, 2026 at 10:49 PM
One day I’ll tell you all how I learned what “hayati” means.
Reposted by John Cluverius
Democrats want you to be able to afford childcare, Republicans want to break into childcare centers and put videos of them on the internet. The choice is yours, America
like 75% of dem messaging right now should be “the party led by epsteins best friend is breaking into pre-k childcare centers so they can record your toddlers and put the videos on internet”
uhhh yeah I can see why these childcare properties weren't eager to let in some rando dudes asking "where are the kids?"
January 1, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Democrats want you to be able to afford childcare, Republicans want to break into childcare centers and put videos of them on the internet. The choice is yours, America
SODIUM WARNING
Finally, Trump's diet! Oh my god. The piece closes with RNC Chair Joe Gruters saying he was "shocked" to witness Trump eat "french fries, a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburger, a Big Mac and a Filet-O-Fish" in one sitting (5/6)
January 1, 2026 at 4:17 PM
SODIUM WARNING
political science: it could be worse
public health: it's worse
public health: it's worse
2025 began for @jimalwine.bsky.social and I w/writing that there could be no compromise with RFK Jr. and that if confirmed:
-Increased outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease would occur
-Children would die from vaccine-preventable diseases
- Vaccine and drug development would be undermined
-Increased outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease would occur
-Children would die from vaccine-preventable diseases
- Vaccine and drug development would be undermined
January 1, 2026 at 4:00 PM
political science: it could be worse
public health: it's worse
public health: it's worse
It's 2026 everyone. While this is not a cryptic announcement about new polls, please follow @umlcpo.bsky.social for official releases from the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. It should be a busy year!
January 1, 2026 at 3:43 PM
It's 2026 everyone. While this is not a cryptic announcement about new polls, please follow @umlcpo.bsky.social for official releases from the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. It should be a busy year!
In 2024, we polled NH Republicans about a constitutional amendment prohibiting anyone over age 75 from holding federal office. 64% said they would support it. Nationwide my best guess is probably 70-80% support.
Exclusive: As signs of aging emerge, President Trump is responding with defiance. He tells WSJ he has eschewed some advice from his doctors and relies on his "good genetics."
As Signs of Aging Emerge, Trump Responds With Defiance
In an interview, President Trump—the oldest man to assume the office—said he has eschewed some advice from his doctors and regrets getting advanced imaging.
on.wsj.com
January 1, 2026 at 2:10 PM
In 2024, we polled NH Republicans about a constitutional amendment prohibiting anyone over age 75 from holding federal office. 64% said they would support it. Nationwide my best guess is probably 70-80% support.