Ilkley Views
@gabr24.bsky.social
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“Even for an intermediate emissions scenario [which is our current emissions pathway] the probability of AMOC shutdown is way above 50%”
(AMOC shut-down means Europe and parts of South-East Asia become uninhabitable, by the way.)
1/4
(AMOC shut-down means Europe and parts of South-East Asia become uninhabitable, by the way.)
1/4
Is the Atlantic Ocean circulation close to tipping?
Hear the latest science as I presented it last month at the ATLAS25 event in Helsinki.
Let me know if anything is unclear, or if you see good reasons why your government shouldn't immediately act on this. 🌊
youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8
Hear the latest science as I presented it last month at the ATLAS25 event in Helsinki.
Let me know if anything is unclear, or if you see good reasons why your government shouldn't immediately act on this. 🌊
youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8
Is the Atlantic Ocean circulation close to tipping?
YouTube video by Earth System Analysis - Potsdam Institute
youtu.be
November 16, 2025 at 7:56 PM
“Even for an intermediate emissions scenario [which is our current emissions pathway] the probability of AMOC shutdown is way above 50%”
(AMOC shut-down means Europe and parts of South-East Asia become uninhabitable, by the way.)
1/4
(AMOC shut-down means Europe and parts of South-East Asia become uninhabitable, by the way.)
1/4
Reposted by Ilkley Views
“If we drive the carbon cycle far enough from equilibrium, it will respond in kind, no matter how hard we try to subordinate it to the market, or tame it with panicked legislation.” - @peterbrannen.bsky.social (quote from Peter’s excellent new book)
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) averaged about 425 ppm in October 2025
10 years ago October averaged about 398 ppm
Data available at gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
10 years ago October averaged about 398 ppm
Data available at gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
November 18, 2025 at 1:51 AM
“If we drive the carbon cycle far enough from equilibrium, it will respond in kind, no matter how hard we try to subordinate it to the market, or tame it with panicked legislation.” - @peterbrannen.bsky.social (quote from Peter’s excellent new book)
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Ultra-processed foods – what’s the impact?
In a new Lancet Series, experts warn a global rise in #UPFs presents a growing public health threat.
Read the evidence & policy recommendations ⬇️
spkl.io/63327AduhR
In a new Lancet Series, experts warn a global rise in #UPFs presents a growing public health threat.
Read the evidence & policy recommendations ⬇️
spkl.io/63327AduhR
November 19, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Ultra-processed foods – what’s the impact?
In a new Lancet Series, experts warn a global rise in #UPFs presents a growing public health threat.
Read the evidence & policy recommendations ⬇️
spkl.io/63327AduhR
In a new Lancet Series, experts warn a global rise in #UPFs presents a growing public health threat.
Read the evidence & policy recommendations ⬇️
spkl.io/63327AduhR
Reposted by Ilkley Views
November 19, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Reposted by Ilkley Views
These are the findings from the final installment of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's Public Services Performance Tracker 2025, supported by @nuffieldfoundation.org
The full summary and cross-service analysis are now available online but I'll summarise the key findings in this thread
The full summary and cross-service analysis are now available online but I'll summarise the key findings in this thread
Performance Tracker 2025: Summary | Institute for Government
The government has high ambitions for public services. But with patchy progress, it needs to get a grip to make a success of its reforms
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 19, 2025 at 7:03 AM
These are the findings from the final installment of @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's Public Services Performance Tracker 2025, supported by @nuffieldfoundation.org
The full summary and cross-service analysis are now available online but I'll summarise the key findings in this thread
The full summary and cross-service analysis are now available online but I'll summarise the key findings in this thread
Reposted by Ilkley Views
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
November 18, 2025 at 4:53 PM
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins)
Reposted by Ilkley Views
To explain briefly: at the moment people successful in their asylum claims get permission to stay in the UK for 5 years, then have to apply for permanent residency. At that point a review of their status is done, but it’s rare not to succeed at that point unless they‘ve committed an offence 1/
To reiterate, this is about making life immeasurably more miserable and stressful for some of the most vulnerable people, in the almost certainly vain hope of winning over the votes of racists.
Anything more shabby and shameful is difficult to envisage.
Anything more shabby and shameful is difficult to envisage.
Asylum in UK to be made temporary under Home Secretary’s plans
Shabana Mahmood will lay out reforms modelled on the Danish system on Monday.
www.independent.co.uk
November 15, 2025 at 9:36 AM
To explain briefly: at the moment people successful in their asylum claims get permission to stay in the UK for 5 years, then have to apply for permanent residency. At that point a review of their status is done, but it’s rare not to succeed at that point unless they‘ve committed an offence 1/
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Amazing gig last night by L’Antidote Trio as part of London Jazz Festival. Music has no borders from Redi Hasa - Cello (Albania, now Italy), Bijan Chemirani - Percussion - Iran & Rami Khalife - Piano - Lebanon. Loved it!
November 16, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Amazing gig last night by L’Antidote Trio as part of London Jazz Festival. Music has no borders from Redi Hasa - Cello (Albania, now Italy), Bijan Chemirani - Percussion - Iran & Rami Khalife - Piano - Lebanon. Loved it!
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Klimakram 17/11/25
1. #Climatecrisis or a warning from God? Iranians desperate for answers as water dries up"
The worse the climate crisis gets, the likelier it is that people will chose answer no. 2, because at least you can do something about the wrath of god, like, large scale human sacrifices?
1. #Climatecrisis or a warning from God? Iranians desperate for answers as water dries up"
The worse the climate crisis gets, the likelier it is that people will chose answer no. 2, because at least you can do something about the wrath of god, like, large scale human sacrifices?
Climate crisis or a warning from God? Iranians desperate for answers as water dries up
As rainy season fails to bring relief, authorities try cloud seeding – while others across the country pray for a miracle
www.theguardian.com
November 17, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Klimakram 17/11/25
1. #Climatecrisis or a warning from God? Iranians desperate for answers as water dries up"
The worse the climate crisis gets, the likelier it is that people will chose answer no. 2, because at least you can do something about the wrath of god, like, large scale human sacrifices?
1. #Climatecrisis or a warning from God? Iranians desperate for answers as water dries up"
The worse the climate crisis gets, the likelier it is that people will chose answer no. 2, because at least you can do something about the wrath of god, like, large scale human sacrifices?
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Yup.
I joined Labour to vote for Corbyn.
I left Labour because he was bloody useless.
I kept voting Labour to get rid of the Tories.
I stopped voting Labour because of Starmer.
I very much doubt that this sequence is unique to me, judging by the rapid growth of Green support including mine.
I joined Labour to vote for Corbyn.
I left Labour because he was bloody useless.
I kept voting Labour to get rid of the Tories.
I stopped voting Labour because of Starmer.
I very much doubt that this sequence is unique to me, judging by the rapid growth of Green support including mine.
November 18, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Yup.
I joined Labour to vote for Corbyn.
I left Labour because he was bloody useless.
I kept voting Labour to get rid of the Tories.
I stopped voting Labour because of Starmer.
I very much doubt that this sequence is unique to me, judging by the rapid growth of Green support including mine.
I joined Labour to vote for Corbyn.
I left Labour because he was bloody useless.
I kept voting Labour to get rid of the Tories.
I stopped voting Labour because of Starmer.
I very much doubt that this sequence is unique to me, judging by the rapid growth of Green support including mine.
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Shabana Mahmood is wrong - Another cowardly attack on immigrants does not hide the incompetence of the Starmer government.
Me, for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Me, for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Shabana Mahmood is wrong
Another cowardly attack on immigrants does not hide the incompetence of the Starmer government
www.newstatesman.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Shabana Mahmood is wrong - Another cowardly attack on immigrants does not hide the incompetence of the Starmer government.
Me, for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Me, for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
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I will write more about this later, for now just to say our paper has been published today. 10 years after Paris Agreement we can conclusively say we have failed to limit warming to well below 2°C. What next?
www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...
www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...
Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems
Humanity has pushed Earth’s life-supporting systems to the brink, accelerated by our
failures over the past decade. Our only way to limit the duration and magnitude of
temperature overshoot is rapid, ...
www.cell.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
I will write more about this later, for now just to say our paper has been published today. 10 years after Paris Agreement we can conclusively say we have failed to limit warming to well below 2°C. What next?
www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...
www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...
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NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”
Reposted by Ilkley Views
'Repairing epistemic injustice and loss in the era of climate coloniality'
Important new paper from Farhana Sultana
rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Important new paper from Farhana Sultana
rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
November 14, 2025 at 3:31 PM
'Repairing epistemic injustice and loss in the era of climate coloniality'
Important new paper from Farhana Sultana
rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Important new paper from Farhana Sultana
rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Reposted by Ilkley Views
💥 Victory: Three oil fields in the North Sea declared illegal
“This is a huge victory. Today’s children and future generations will reap the benefits of the courage the judges showed today. It proves that our struggle for climate justice has real force"
PRESS RELEASE:
“This is a huge victory. Today’s children and future generations will reap the benefits of the courage the judges showed today. It proves that our struggle for climate justice has real force"
PRESS RELEASE:
Victory: Three oil fields in the North Sea declared illegal - Greenpeace International
Borgarting Court of Appeal agreed with Greenpeace Nordic and Natur og Ungdom that three oil fields in the Norwegian North Sea are illegal.
act.gp
November 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
💥 Victory: Three oil fields in the North Sea declared illegal
“This is a huge victory. Today’s children and future generations will reap the benefits of the courage the judges showed today. It proves that our struggle for climate justice has real force"
PRESS RELEASE:
“This is a huge victory. Today’s children and future generations will reap the benefits of the courage the judges showed today. It proves that our struggle for climate justice has real force"
PRESS RELEASE:
Reposted by Ilkley Views
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
November 14, 2025 at 9:20 AM
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Since Trump’s ‘ceasefire’, Israel killed 900 Palestinians in Gaza. In the West Bank, 691 Palestinians were kidnapped during 1,503 invasions. If the victims had been Israelis, the Western media would have been (rightly) protesting these pogroms. Now? A guilty silence prevails...
Yanis Varoufakis on X: "Since Trump’s ‘ceasefire’, Israel killed 900 Palestinians in Gaza. In the West Bank, 691 Palestinians were kidnapped during 1,503 invasions. If the victims had been Israelis, the Western media would have been (rightly) protesting these pogroms. Now? A guilty silence prevails..." / X
Since Trump’s ‘ceasefire’, Israel killed 900 Palestinians in Gaza. In the West Bank, 691 Palestinians were kidnapped during 1,503 invasions. If the victims had been Israelis, the Western media would have been (rightly) protesting these pogroms. Now? A guilty silence prevails...
x.com
November 15, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Since Trump’s ‘ceasefire’, Israel killed 900 Palestinians in Gaza. In the West Bank, 691 Palestinians were kidnapped during 1,503 invasions. If the victims had been Israelis, the Western media would have been (rightly) protesting these pogroms. Now? A guilty silence prevails...
Reposted by Ilkley Views
If I had a dime for every time someone said to me "but our modeling says" regarding CCS, I STG. Models are useful, but understanding what models don't show you is a vital important of using them and none of these models accounted for a political system owned by O&G. EJ advocates DID.
When I started to criticize wild promises for carbon dioxide capture & removal in 2022, I took *so much shit* from the energy modelers and journalists promoting it, but those same people are silent now that even the scientists who first imagined the tech are increasingly mounting the same criticism.
November 13, 2025 at 3:43 PM
If I had a dime for every time someone said to me "but our modeling says" regarding CCS, I STG. Models are useful, but understanding what models don't show you is a vital important of using them and none of these models accounted for a political system owned by O&G. EJ advocates DID.
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"I would want to see emissions going down for several years before I would stand up on a building top and shout that emissions have peaked"
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
November 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM
"I would want to see emissions going down for several years before I would stand up on a building top and shout that emissions have peaked"
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
November 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
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Fascinating how many people in the replies fixated on the charisma issue, arguing that charisma is sinister and lack of it implies competence. Not necessarily so
All PMs are flawed but I think if you have no coherent vision, no ability to make decisions quickly, no humour or charisma when addressing the public, no strong roots in your party, no talent for charming MPs and no control over your own office, then you are unlikely to be able to turn it around
November 13, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Fascinating how many people in the replies fixated on the charisma issue, arguing that charisma is sinister and lack of it implies competence. Not necessarily so
Reposted by Ilkley Views
Always my fav chart from the GCB, and here's the 2025 update.
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
November 13, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Always my fav chart from the GCB, and here's the 2025 update.
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
Reposted by Ilkley Views
holy hell....this paragraph
CC @wimcarton.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... by @oliviarudgard.bsky.social
CC @wimcarton.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... by @oliviarudgard.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 10:36 AM
holy hell....this paragraph
CC @wimcarton.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... by @oliviarudgard.bsky.social
CC @wimcarton.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... by @oliviarudgard.bsky.social
Reposted by Ilkley Views
NEW
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
emptycity.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM
NEW
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
Reposted by Ilkley Views
The media seems obsessed with a totally made-up exodus of millionaires scared of higher taxes.
But they're ignoring the very real threat of an exodus of nurses— caused by taxes that are too low to pay them decent wages.
Our own Jake Atkinson telling it like it is on LBCNews.
But they're ignoring the very real threat of an exodus of nurses— caused by taxes that are too low to pay them decent wages.
Our own Jake Atkinson telling it like it is on LBCNews.
November 6, 2025 at 8:45 AM
The media seems obsessed with a totally made-up exodus of millionaires scared of higher taxes.
But they're ignoring the very real threat of an exodus of nurses— caused by taxes that are too low to pay them decent wages.
Our own Jake Atkinson telling it like it is on LBCNews.
But they're ignoring the very real threat of an exodus of nurses— caused by taxes that are too low to pay them decent wages.
Our own Jake Atkinson telling it like it is on LBCNews.