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Glen Peters

Glen Peters

@glenpeters.bsky.social

25K followers 290 following 1.9K posts

Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters

Environmental science 41%

Economics 22%

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · Nov 13

📢Global Carbon Budget 2024📢

Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year?

Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news?

essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

1/

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 1d

Not if you live in Norway

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 1d

Imagine when they learn they can supplement a working bee with a sausage sizzle...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 3d

Türkiye should just let them have it, and get the last laugh.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 3d

He, he. In longer words... I meant it was politically expedient when first suggested a while back, it is no longer politically expedient. Politically, I suspect they don't want to host it anymore. I imagine them fighting hard, with fingers crossed behind their backs.

Reposted by Glen P. Peters

Rob Bellamy @drrobbellamy.bsky.social · 3d

As we approach the 30th United Nations Climate Change conference, @dialoguescc.bsky.social asked @glenpeters.bsky.social: is limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C still possible? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 3d

...because he is not fighting to host the COP...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

Yes, but this is the top 6 countries by absolute emissions.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

But there are lots of options and all the data is here
bsky.app/profile/glen...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page...

This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.

Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page...

This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.

Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

What has value and what has impact are often different things...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

Is this for current policies, NDC, etc, or another scenario?

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

3.2.4 Year 2024 projection
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...

essd.copernicus.org

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

Yeah, it seems the copy editing failed

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

I can forward you a looonnggg email chain on the topic... At least, we should discuss how to deal with this next time.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

Yes, the LUC is anthro. The number is global there, all other countries are GHG emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture, etc (just not on land).

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

More fires in El Nino in the tropics, and without El Nino, it will mean less fires in 2025.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

What goes up, must come down...

Without El Nino, we would not expect as much fires, so it will go back to "normal" this year.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

*I did not ring my colleagues of course, I used this modern thing called email...

BTW here is the 10 year changes, with LUC going down

3/3

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

The complication is the projection method is different to the annual estimate method (so the method used in 2024 to estimate 2024 is different to the method used in 2025 to estimate 2024, confused?). So you will not see the big drop implied above. This is more why I rang* my colleagues actually.

2/

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

LUC has much more variability, and uncertainty, so we tend to look more at multiyear trends and not annual changes. All else equal, it means an equally big drop this year, without El Nino, but as always it is more complex...

1/

Reposted by Peter Thorne

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 4d

"Here is the graph, which is so wild, the climate scientist had to call a colleague & check it"

It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says!

politiken.dk/klima/art106...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5d

Give or take...

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5d

Just to clarify, I suspect they use the emissions consistent with whatever will be used in the IPCC or was used in the IPCC. If they had to fill in few a few years, they may have used Forster to fill in those few years. But, surely they point to a method somewhere?

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5d

I would be more concerned about assumptions used to project emissions from 2035 to 2100. But anyway... (I think they might have an uncertainty on that, they did at some stage I think)

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5d

I keep a safe distance from all that stuff, and focus on the historical. I am only in Chapter 2. You would have to follow up with the authors in the relevant chapter. I imagine they use the IPCC climate assessment pipeline, probably updated re Forster et al. But, that is guessing.

Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 5d

Our CO2 projection will turn out quite well.