Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Not if you live in Norway
November 9, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Not if you live in Norway
Imagine when they learn they can supplement a working bee with a sausage sizzle...
November 9, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Imagine when they learn they can supplement a working bee with a sausage sizzle...
Türkiye should just let them have it, and get the last laugh.
November 7, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Türkiye should just let them have it, and get the last laugh.
He, he. In longer words... I meant it was politically expedient when first suggested a while back, it is no longer politically expedient. Politically, I suspect they don't want to host it anymore. I imagine them fighting hard, with fingers crossed behind their backs.
November 7, 2025 at 3:58 PM
He, he. In longer words... I meant it was politically expedient when first suggested a while back, it is no longer politically expedient. Politically, I suspect they don't want to host it anymore. I imagine them fighting hard, with fingers crossed behind their backs.
...because he is not fighting to host the COP...
November 7, 2025 at 10:56 AM
...because he is not fighting to host the COP...
Yes, but this is the top 6 countries by absolute emissions.
November 6, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Yes, but this is the top 6 countries by absolute emissions.
But there are lots of options and all the data is here
bsky.app/profile/glen...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
November 6, 2025 at 10:01 AM
But there are lots of options and all the data is here
bsky.app/profile/glen...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
What has value and what has impact are often different things...
November 6, 2025 at 9:58 AM
What has value and what has impact are often different things...
Is this for current policies, NDC, etc, or another scenario?
November 6, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Is this for current policies, NDC, etc, or another scenario?
3.2.4 Year 2024 projection
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Global Carbon Budget 2024
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...
essd.copernicus.org
November 6, 2025 at 9:31 AM
3.2.4 Year 2024 projection
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Yeah, it seems the copy editing failed
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Yeah, it seems the copy editing failed
I can forward you a looonnggg email chain on the topic... At least, we should discuss how to deal with this next time.
November 6, 2025 at 9:03 AM
I can forward you a looonnggg email chain on the topic... At least, we should discuss how to deal with this next time.
Yes, the LUC is anthro. The number is global there, all other countries are GHG emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture, etc (just not on land).
November 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Yes, the LUC is anthro. The number is global there, all other countries are GHG emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture, etc (just not on land).
More fires in El Nino in the tropics, and without El Nino, it will mean less fires in 2025.
November 6, 2025 at 9:01 AM
More fires in El Nino in the tropics, and without El Nino, it will mean less fires in 2025.
What goes up, must come down...
Without El Nino, we would not expect as much fires, so it will go back to "normal" this year.
Without El Nino, we would not expect as much fires, so it will go back to "normal" this year.
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
What goes up, must come down...
Without El Nino, we would not expect as much fires, so it will go back to "normal" this year.
Without El Nino, we would not expect as much fires, so it will go back to "normal" this year.
*I did not ring my colleagues of course, I used this modern thing called email...
BTW here is the 10 year changes, with LUC going down
3/3
BTW here is the 10 year changes, with LUC going down
3/3
November 6, 2025 at 8:59 AM
*I did not ring my colleagues of course, I used this modern thing called email...
BTW here is the 10 year changes, with LUC going down
3/3
BTW here is the 10 year changes, with LUC going down
3/3
The complication is the projection method is different to the annual estimate method (so the method used in 2024 to estimate 2024 is different to the method used in 2025 to estimate 2024, confused?). So you will not see the big drop implied above. This is more why I rang* my colleagues actually.
2/
2/
November 6, 2025 at 8:59 AM
The complication is the projection method is different to the annual estimate method (so the method used in 2024 to estimate 2024 is different to the method used in 2025 to estimate 2024, confused?). So you will not see the big drop implied above. This is more why I rang* my colleagues actually.
2/
2/
LUC has much more variability, and uncertainty, so we tend to look more at multiyear trends and not annual changes. All else equal, it means an equally big drop this year, without El Nino, but as always it is more complex...
1/
1/
November 6, 2025 at 8:59 AM
LUC has much more variability, and uncertainty, so we tend to look more at multiyear trends and not annual changes. All else equal, it means an equally big drop this year, without El Nino, but as always it is more complex...
1/
1/
Just to clarify, I suspect they use the emissions consistent with whatever will be used in the IPCC or was used in the IPCC. If they had to fill in few a few years, they may have used Forster to fill in those few years. But, surely they point to a method somewhere?
November 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Just to clarify, I suspect they use the emissions consistent with whatever will be used in the IPCC or was used in the IPCC. If they had to fill in few a few years, they may have used Forster to fill in those few years. But, surely they point to a method somewhere?
I would be more concerned about assumptions used to project emissions from 2035 to 2100. But anyway... (I think they might have an uncertainty on that, they did at some stage I think)
November 5, 2025 at 3:58 PM
I would be more concerned about assumptions used to project emissions from 2035 to 2100. But anyway... (I think they might have an uncertainty on that, they did at some stage I think)