Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Pinned
Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
· Nov 13
📢Global Carbon Budget 2024📢
Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year?
Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news?
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
1/
Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year?
Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news?
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
As we approach the 30th United Nations Climate Change conference, @dialoguescc.bsky.social asked @glenpeters.bsky.social: is limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C still possible? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
November 7, 2025 at 11:19 AM
As we approach the 30th United Nations Climate Change conference, @dialoguescc.bsky.social asked @glenpeters.bsky.social: is limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C still possible? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
November 6, 2025 at 10:00 AM
If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014.
Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
"Here is the graph, which is so wild, the climate scientist had to call a colleague & check it"
It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says!
politiken.dk/klima/art106...
It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says!
politiken.dk/klima/art106...
November 6, 2025 at 7:40 AM
"Here is the graph, which is so wild, the climate scientist had to call a colleague & check it"
It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says!
politiken.dk/klima/art106...
It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says!
politiken.dk/klima/art106...
Reposted by Glen Peters
As part of the GCP-Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2, we recently published the Australasia's CH4 and N2O Budgets. The carbon budget was published in 2023, both papers, led by Yohanna Villalobos and a great team of collaborators.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
November 4, 2025 at 10:22 PM
As part of the GCP-Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2, we recently published the Australasia's CH4 and N2O Budgets. The carbon budget was published in 2023, both papers, led by Yohanna Villalobos and a great team of collaborators.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%.
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
November 5, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%.
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
Two years ago we had a commentary on how future scenario databases could look. We suggested a more CMIP like approach, with peer reviewed scenario protocols, an open process & open data, community efforts, etc, to encourage (probably not solve) inclusivity.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
November 4, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Two years ago we had a commentary on how future scenario databases could look. We suggested a more CMIP like approach, with peer reviewed scenario protocols, an open process & open data, community efforts, etc, to encourage (probably not solve) inclusivity.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
1/
There is increasing talk about overshoot of 1.5°C, particularly that *now* we can only achieve 1.5°C by first overshooting 1.5°C.
Well, sorry to tell you, 1.5°C have always been overshoot scenarios. Here from the original 'SSP' 1.5°C scenarios published in 2018.
[Overshoot is a scenario design]
Well, sorry to tell you, 1.5°C have always been overshoot scenarios. Here from the original 'SSP' 1.5°C scenarios published in 2018.
[Overshoot is a scenario design]
November 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM
There is increasing talk about overshoot of 1.5°C, particularly that *now* we can only achieve 1.5°C by first overshooting 1.5°C.
Well, sorry to tell you, 1.5°C have always been overshoot scenarios. Here from the original 'SSP' 1.5°C scenarios published in 2018.
[Overshoot is a scenario design]
Well, sorry to tell you, 1.5°C have always been overshoot scenarios. Here from the original 'SSP' 1.5°C scenarios published in 2018.
[Overshoot is a scenario design]
The National Party of Australia dumped its Net Zero policy as Australia is moving too fast, & faster than its peers in the OECD.
Well, fossil CO2 emissions in the last 10 years have gone down
* -0.5% per year in Australia
* -1.4% per year in the OECD
Australia is somewhat of a laggard...
Well, fossil CO2 emissions in the last 10 years have gone down
* -0.5% per year in Australia
* -1.4% per year in the OECD
Australia is somewhat of a laggard...
November 3, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The National Party of Australia dumped its Net Zero policy as Australia is moving too fast, & faster than its peers in the OECD.
Well, fossil CO2 emissions in the last 10 years have gone down
* -0.5% per year in Australia
* -1.4% per year in the OECD
Australia is somewhat of a laggard...
Well, fossil CO2 emissions in the last 10 years have gone down
* -0.5% per year in Australia
* -1.4% per year in the OECD
Australia is somewhat of a laggard...
Although conceptually appealing, reliance on offsets has fatal flaws:
* Difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions
* Ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’
* Crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently
ICYMI: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
* Difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions
* Ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’
* Crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently
ICYMI: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
November 3, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Although conceptually appealing, reliance on offsets has fatal flaws:
* Difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions
* Ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’
* Crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently
ICYMI: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
* Difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions
* Ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’
* Crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently
ICYMI: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Glen Peters
India's rainfall in October was about 50% higher than normal for the month. It continues to be a wet year. May was the wettest May since records began in 1901.
robbieandrew.github.io/india/index....
robbieandrew.github.io/india/index....
November 1, 2025 at 9:12 AM
India's rainfall in October was about 50% higher than normal for the month. It continues to be a wet year. May was the wettest May since records began in 1901.
robbieandrew.github.io/india/index....
robbieandrew.github.io/india/index....
Where are we on climate action?
The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments.
That is the progress 10 years after Paris...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments.
That is the progress 10 years after Paris...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
October 30, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Where are we on climate action?
The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments.
That is the progress 10 years after Paris...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments.
That is the progress 10 years after Paris...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
"The global oil market may be at a tipping point as signs of a significant supply glut emerge" writes the IEA.
Tepid demand due to "subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies, & robust electric vehicle sales in many markets." 😮
www.iea.org/commentaries...
Tepid demand due to "subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies, & robust electric vehicle sales in many markets." 😮
www.iea.org/commentaries...
As oil market surplus keeps rising, something’s got to give – Analysis - IEA
As oil market surplus keeps rising, something’s got to give - A commentary by Toril Bosoni
www.iea.org
October 27, 2025 at 7:24 AM
"The global oil market may be at a tipping point as signs of a significant supply glut emerge" writes the IEA.
Tepid demand due to "subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies, & robust electric vehicle sales in many markets." 😮
www.iea.org/commentaries...
Tepid demand due to "subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies, & robust electric vehicle sales in many markets." 😮
www.iea.org/commentaries...
Exactly. The same with CDR and overshoot...
The ethical use case for SRM is one in which governance conditions fail to enable adequately rapid decarbonization, and then there is a revolutionary change in governance that allows effective and equitable management of SRM
October 25, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Exactly. The same with CDR and overshoot...
Reposted by Glen Peters
deeply wild clip of a fossil fuel economist on norway's state broadcaster claiming
- 3 degrees of warming is a "problem we can live with"
- Extreme weather is not a threat to human welfare
- We need to dig up Norwegian oil and gas to help 'poor Africans in huts' get rid of polluting cooking fuels
- 3 degrees of warming is a "problem we can live with"
- Extreme weather is not a threat to human welfare
- We need to dig up Norwegian oil and gas to help 'poor Africans in huts' get rid of polluting cooking fuels
October 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
deeply wild clip of a fossil fuel economist on norway's state broadcaster claiming
- 3 degrees of warming is a "problem we can live with"
- Extreme weather is not a threat to human welfare
- We need to dig up Norwegian oil and gas to help 'poor Africans in huts' get rid of polluting cooking fuels
- 3 degrees of warming is a "problem we can live with"
- Extreme weather is not a threat to human welfare
- We need to dig up Norwegian oil and gas to help 'poor Africans in huts' get rid of polluting cooking fuels
I am not sure the NRK Debatten on costs of climate policy was that helpful...
tv.nrk.no/serie/debatt...
In simplified terms, the IPCC is clear, mitigation costs less than impacts, & more mitigation leads to more benefits (with high confidence).
The IPCC text is hard to pass, so a thread...
1/
tv.nrk.no/serie/debatt...
In simplified terms, the IPCC is clear, mitigation costs less than impacts, & more mitigation leads to more benefits (with high confidence).
The IPCC text is hard to pass, so a thread...
1/
Debatten: I går · Redd klima, koste hva det koste vil? - NRK TV
Ingen vet hva de norske klimatiltakene koster. Er det et problem, da?
tv.nrk.no
October 24, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I am not sure the NRK Debatten on costs of climate policy was that helpful...
tv.nrk.no/serie/debatt...
In simplified terms, the IPCC is clear, mitigation costs less than impacts, & more mitigation leads to more benefits (with high confidence).
The IPCC text is hard to pass, so a thread...
1/
tv.nrk.no/serie/debatt...
In simplified terms, the IPCC is clear, mitigation costs less than impacts, & more mitigation leads to more benefits (with high confidence).
The IPCC text is hard to pass, so a thread...
1/
Finland has a goal to be net zero GHG emissions by 2035.
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
October 23, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Finland has a goal to be net zero GHG emissions by 2035.
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed.
Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade!
www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel...
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
Here's something that's not talked about enough
The air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills an estimated 10 million people a year
1 in 6 deaths is caused by fossil fuels
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills an estimated 10 million people a year
1 in 6 deaths is caused by fossil fuels
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
October 21, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Here's something that's not talked about enough
The air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills an estimated 10 million people a year
1 in 6 deaths is caused by fossil fuels
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills an estimated 10 million people a year
1 in 6 deaths is caused by fossil fuels
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
How unprecedented is power demand growth in the US?
Not unprecedented at all, according to the data (versus the media, consultants, SoMe, ...).
[small caveat: figure shows generation, but desired demand may be higher]
@hannahritchie.bsky.social www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/usa-electr...
1/
Not unprecedented at all, according to the data (versus the media, consultants, SoMe, ...).
[small caveat: figure shows generation, but desired demand may be higher]
@hannahritchie.bsky.social www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/usa-electr...
1/
October 20, 2025 at 6:46 AM
How unprecedented is power demand growth in the US?
Not unprecedented at all, according to the data (versus the media, consultants, SoMe, ...).
[small caveat: figure shows generation, but desired demand may be higher]
@hannahritchie.bsky.social www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/usa-electr...
1/
Not unprecedented at all, according to the data (versus the media, consultants, SoMe, ...).
[small caveat: figure shows generation, but desired demand may be higher]
@hannahritchie.bsky.social www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/usa-electr...
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
One of the most dramatic "blips" at a global level, ever.
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
October 18, 2025 at 9:34 AM
One of the most dramatic "blips" at a global level, ever.
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
Debate on forest uptake in Norway often ends up discussing deforestation.
Everyone agrees, we should stop deforestation. So let's stop it.
Though, net forest change in Norway is relatively small. It is not the elephant in the room.
www.nmbu.no/forskning/st...
1/
Everyone agrees, we should stop deforestation. So let's stop it.
Though, net forest change in Norway is relatively small. It is not the elephant in the room.
www.nmbu.no/forskning/st...
1/
October 16, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Debate on forest uptake in Norway often ends up discussing deforestation.
Everyone agrees, we should stop deforestation. So let's stop it.
Though, net forest change in Norway is relatively small. It is not the elephant in the room.
www.nmbu.no/forskning/st...
1/
Everyone agrees, we should stop deforestation. So let's stop it.
Though, net forest change in Norway is relatively small. It is not the elephant in the room.
www.nmbu.no/forskning/st...
1/
Hmmm, I think they mean CO2 levels in the atmosphere (the CO2 concentration), not emissions.
A common confusion, emissions and concentrations...
(though, the title is still correct, just not what the WMO report is about)
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
1/
A common confusion, emissions and concentrations...
(though, the title is still correct, just not what the WMO report is about)
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
1/
October 16, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Hmmm, I think they mean CO2 levels in the atmosphere (the CO2 concentration), not emissions.
A common confusion, emissions and concentrations...
(though, the title is still correct, just not what the WMO report is about)
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
1/
A common confusion, emissions and concentrations...
(though, the title is still correct, just not what the WMO report is about)
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.
The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.
More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.
More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition!
Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report?
Apply by 18 Oct 2025
🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...
Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report?
Apply by 18 Oct 2025
🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...
October 15, 2025 at 9:17 AM
📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.
The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.
More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.
More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
Wow, thanks for finding that. I had sort of forgotten about it. I have been looking for an article that summarises these issues. I was looking in the wrong place...
a medal for @glenpeters.bsky.social, who in 2017 correctly cautioned against pre-emptive celebration about peak emissions in China
www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/31/c...
www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/31/c...
Have Chinese CO2 emissions really peaked?
We are really bad at predicting Chinese emissions. Why do we think we know what happens next?
www.climatechangenews.com
October 14, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Wow, thanks for finding that. I had sort of forgotten about it. I have been looking for an article that summarises these issues. I was looking in the wrong place...
Linking existing models to extend energy system & integrated assessment analysis is increasingly common practice, but little attention has been paid to the details, the trade-offs, & the interpretation of the interlinked model system.
Look, no figures!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Look, no figures!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices
Linking existing models to extend energy system and integrated assessment analysis is an increasingly common practice. Despite this, and unlike in the…
www.sciencedirect.com
October 14, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Linking existing models to extend energy system & integrated assessment analysis is increasingly common practice, but little attention has been paid to the details, the trade-offs, & the interpretation of the interlinked model system.
Look, no figures!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Look, no figures!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A Maximum Sectoral Effort "can reduce Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) by >50% globally, increase [the] role of the land sink in storing carbon, & more evenly distribute CDR contributions & associated side-effects across regions compared to CO2 pricing alone"
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
1/
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
1/
October 13, 2025 at 7:38 AM
A Maximum Sectoral Effort "can reduce Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) by >50% globally, increase [the] role of the land sink in storing carbon, & more evenly distribute CDR contributions & associated side-effects across regions compared to CO2 pricing alone"
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
1/
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
1/