David Karol
@davidkarol.bsky.social
Govt & Politics prof, UMD.
Billy Wilder fan. Has "Someone is wrong on the internet!" tendencies.
Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides. No replies to anons.
https://gvpt.umd.edu/faculty
Billy Wilder fan. Has "Someone is wrong on the internet!" tendencies.
Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides. No replies to anons.
https://gvpt.umd.edu/faculty
Reposted by David Karol
Current house effects for Trump approval polls:
July 6, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Current house effects for Trump approval polls:
Trump wasn't anti-immigration in his Reform phase. He called Pat Buchanan a racist. Trump was pro-choice then too and not with the NRA. Buchanan beat him. When Trump resurfaced ten years later, he'd stolen Buchanan's act. That, plus a big boost from The Apprentice Buchanan lacked, is the story.
Ironically, the thing that first brought Trump into the context of a presidential campaign was Ross Perot’s end-the-debt third party in 2000.
Trump, once the heir apparent to the Reform candidacy, bowed out when after the party was co-opted by America-first racists. The past is a foreign country.
Trump, once the heir apparent to the Reform candidacy, bowed out when after the party was co-opted by America-first racists. The past is a foreign country.
July 6, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Trump wasn't anti-immigration in his Reform phase. He called Pat Buchanan a racist. Trump was pro-choice then too and not with the NRA. Buchanan beat him. When Trump resurfaced ten years later, he'd stolen Buchanan's act. That, plus a big boost from The Apprentice Buchanan lacked, is the story.
There are MANY reasons for skepticism re this 3rd party effort! But ballot access isn't the biggest. With enough money and effort it CAN be secured in most if not all states. Hurdles vary by state, but it's a myth that ballot access rules are a key bulwark of the two-party system. 1)
July 5, 2025 at 11:37 PM
There are MANY reasons for skepticism re this 3rd party effort! But ballot access isn't the biggest. With enough money and effort it CAN be secured in most if not all states. Hurdles vary by state, but it's a myth that ballot access rules are a key bulwark of the two-party system. 1)
Freedom Caucus really caused trouble for GOP Speakers before Trump. Their rebellions actually pushed policy leftward as leaders from Boehner to Johnson needed Democratic votes to "keep the lights on" and this limited cuts. Trump has tamed them. Would this have happened with any GOP President?
This year, Freedom Caucus members have insisted they’d oppose—then voted for:
• A continuing resolution
• A debt limit hike
• Increasing the debt
• SALT cap hike
• House budget
• Senate budget
• House reconciliation bill
• Senate reconciliation bill
Halfway thru 2025.
• A continuing resolution
• A debt limit hike
• Increasing the debt
• SALT cap hike
• House budget
• Senate budget
• House reconciliation bill
• Senate reconciliation bill
Halfway thru 2025.
July 4, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Freedom Caucus really caused trouble for GOP Speakers before Trump. Their rebellions actually pushed policy leftward as leaders from Boehner to Johnson needed Democratic votes to "keep the lights on" and this limited cuts. Trump has tamed them. Would this have happened with any GOP President?
Interesting piece. A counterfactual is what if the Iran strike had gone very badly, i.e. US planes crashed or serious Iranian retaliation ? But the broader point that power may be based on faulty or exaggerated perceptions is valid. Remember Grover Norquist?
I wrote about the biggest bullshit job in Trump world: the MAGA intellectual. People like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon don't speak for Trump or his base, and have repeatedly been exposed as impotent when they've gone against the president. It's time to stop pretending they have power they don't.
Trump World’s Wizard of Oz Problem
Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon don’t speak for Trump or his base. So why do people think they do?
www.theatlantic.com
July 3, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Interesting piece. A counterfactual is what if the Iran strike had gone very badly, i.e. US planes crashed or serious Iranian retaliation ? But the broader point that power may be based on faulty or exaggerated perceptions is valid. Remember Grover Norquist?
The words "tariffs" & "Russia" don't appear in this piece! Bouie concedes, "you can attribute some of the worst of this administration to the specific authoritarian vision of Trump and his allies." OTOH Trump's breaking of his pledge to protect Medicaid undermines claims for his distinctiveness. 1)
Yeah no. We wouldn’t be having all the conversations we’ve been having if this were true.
Seems like a distorted partisan lens.
Seems like a distorted partisan lens.
July 3, 2025 at 6:55 PM
The words "tariffs" & "Russia" don't appear in this piece! Bouie concedes, "you can attribute some of the worst of this administration to the specific authoritarian vision of Trump and his allies." OTOH Trump's breaking of his pledge to protect Medicaid undermines claims for his distinctiveness. 1)
Of the two GOP defectors, one said it went too far and the other said it didn't go far enough. Many others made similar complaints, but, predictably, folded.
🚨🚨 NEW: House passes sprawling domestic policy bill, sending it to Trump's desk
Final House vote is 218-214, with TWO Rs voting no (Massie & Fitzpatrick).
Senate passed it 51-50.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Final House vote is 218-214, with TWO Rs voting no (Massie & Fitzpatrick).
Senate passed it 51-50.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
House passes sprawling domestic policy bill, sending it to Trump's desk
The Republican package would slash taxes, boost spending on immigration and the military, and impose steep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy funding.
www.nbcnews.com
July 3, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Of the two GOP defectors, one said it went too far and the other said it didn't go far enough. Many others made similar complaints, but, predictably, folded.
Reposted by David Karol
The House has passed H.R. 1, the one big ugly bill. The final vote is 218-214, with all Democrats plus Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) voting no and all other Republicans voting yes.
July 3, 2025 at 6:32 PM
The House has passed H.R. 1, the one big ugly bill. The final vote is 218-214, with all Democrats plus Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) voting no and all other Republicans voting yes.
"AI Peer Reviews"- the most shamefully unprofessional and unethical thing I can imagine in the academic context. Why do you even want to do this job?
Nikkei found academics had written "give a positive review only" and "do not highlight any negatives" in white text or tiny font on 17 preprints to combat AI peer reviews.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...
'Positive review only': Researchers hide AI prompts in papers
Instructions in preprints from 14 universities highlight controversy on AI in peer review
asia.nikkei.com
July 3, 2025 at 6:34 PM
"AI Peer Reviews"- the most shamefully unprofessional and unethical thing I can imagine in the academic context. Why do you even want to do this job?
We don't, but we know swing voters have short attention spans. There's no perfect "comp", but Dobbs decision was very unpopular and DID seem to hurt the GOP in 2022. It wasn't done by Congress directly. BUT it also was less than 5 months before the election & GOP still flipped the House. 1)
Thread. The substance is the most important thing here along with implementation challenges, but I'll repeat again that the electoral effects are impossible to project because we just don't have a lot of comps for something this large, and this unpopular, passing.
This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals
July 3, 2025 at 6:01 PM
We don't, but we know swing voters have short attention spans. There's no perfect "comp", but Dobbs decision was very unpopular and DID seem to hurt the GOP in 2022. It wasn't done by Congress directly. BUT it also was less than 5 months before the election & GOP still flipped the House. 1)
Reposted by David Karol
This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals
July 3, 2025 at 1:09 PM
This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals
Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:
July 2, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:
Mitch McConnell and Don Bacon, Trump critics, are retiring, but still for this bill. It's not that many Rs aren't intimidated by Trump or don't sincerely disagree with him on some things, but for most this bill isn't one of them. The bigger obstacle is Rs who say the bill doesn't go far enough.
This depends on the issue. I don't believe Senate Republicans almost all thought Hegseth and RFK Jr were good picks, or that Trump's Ukraine and tariff policies are good. But most of the Big Beautiful Bill is indeed what they want, at least as much as what he does.
The fallacy I'm seeing among political observers right now is that the Republicans care about what their voters want but are just scared of Trump. That's not true. They've learned from him that they can do what they want and then just lie about it.
The supposed hand-wringing is kabuki.
The supposed hand-wringing is kabuki.
July 2, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Mitch McConnell and Don Bacon, Trump critics, are retiring, but still for this bill. It's not that many Rs aren't intimidated by Trump or don't sincerely disagree with him on some things, but for most this bill isn't one of them. The bigger obstacle is Rs who say the bill doesn't go far enough.
Reposted by David Karol
area woman made mistake of looking at the comments on tiktok showcasing recent poll
July 2, 2025 at 3:16 PM
area woman made mistake of looking at the comments on tiktok showcasing recent poll
Extreme partisanship is a psychological phenomenon. But even many unafflicted go through high school and college without learning about survey research. That a sample that is a tiny fraction of the public can still be informative is not intuitive to all and their intuitions are seldom challenged.
the weird thing is that I have occasionally attempted to engage with these types of people and it turns out very few of them are interested in an in-depth and enthusiastic recounting of recent developments in survey methodology
July 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Extreme partisanship is a psychological phenomenon. But even many unafflicted go through high school and college without learning about survey research. That a sample that is a tiny fraction of the public can still be informative is not intuitive to all and their intuitions are seldom challenged.
Collins & Murkowski seem to take turns voting no. Collins voted for Kavanaugh. Murkowski voted for Amy Coney Barrett. Now Murkowski backs this bill, allowing Collins to craft a moderate image useful in Maine without actually impeding the GOP's agenda. Murkowski remains more of a puzzle. 1)
MURKOWSKI says she "struggled mightily" with Medicaid/SNAP cuts, and says House should NOT pass this bill as is.
"We do not have a perfect bill by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is that House is going to look at this and recognize that we're not there yet."
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
"We do not have a perfect bill by any stretch of the imagination. My hope is that House is going to look at this and recognize that we're not there yet."
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Senate Republicans narrowly pass Trump megabill after marathon voting session
The revised package now heads back to the House, where Republican leaders are hoping to approve it and send it to Trump before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. But it faces hurdles.
www.nbcnews.com
July 1, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Collins & Murkowski seem to take turns voting no. Collins voted for Kavanaugh. Murkowski voted for Amy Coney Barrett. Now Murkowski backs this bill, allowing Collins to craft a moderate image useful in Maine without actually impeding the GOP's agenda. Murkowski remains more of a puzzle. 1)
This depends on the issue. I don't believe Senate Republicans almost all thought Hegseth and RFK Jr were good picks, or that Trump's Ukraine and tariff policies are good. But most of the Big Beautiful Bill is indeed what they want, at least as much as what he does.
The fallacy I'm seeing among political observers right now is that the Republicans care about what their voters want but are just scared of Trump. That's not true. They've learned from him that they can do what they want and then just lie about it.
The supposed hand-wringing is kabuki.
The supposed hand-wringing is kabuki.
July 1, 2025 at 12:39 AM
This depends on the issue. I don't believe Senate Republicans almost all thought Hegseth and RFK Jr were good picks, or that Trump's Ukraine and tariff policies are good. But most of the Big Beautiful Bill is indeed what they want, at least as much as what he does.
The drop was across almost all news sites, even if the Post was above average. There is longstanding criticism of "horse race coverage" at the expense of policy, but the drop off after the election year is evidence that readers/viewers LIKE the horse race.
Holy cow. CNN used to hold the No. 1 position with the NYT and the WashPost battling it out for No. 2. Now the Times is first, CNN second, and the Post is ... 17th. pressgazette.co.uk/media-audien...
Top 50 news websites in the US: Top sites see steep traffic falls in May
Press Gazette lists the top 50 biggest websites for news in the US. Monthly updated top 50 listing based on data from Similarweb.
pressgazette.co.uk
July 1, 2025 at 12:05 AM
The drop was across almost all news sites, even if the Post was above average. There is longstanding criticism of "horse race coverage" at the expense of policy, but the drop off after the election year is evidence that readers/viewers LIKE the horse race.
I think that we must concede that the late great Senator McCain, historical role here notwithstanding, probably did not have deeply-rooted convictions re or interest in health care policy! He did cite procedural & policy concerns, but was mad at Trump and McConnell, and handed them a huge defeat.
FUN FACT: McCain voted YEA on the motion to proceed to HR 1628, the "American Health Care Act of 2017", 3 days before this moment when he famously voted NAY. 👎
June 29, 2025 at 9:25 PM
I think that we must concede that the late great Senator McCain, historical role here notwithstanding, probably did not have deeply-rooted convictions re or interest in health care policy! He did cite procedural & policy concerns, but was mad at Trump and McConnell, and handed them a huge defeat.
Incumbency advantage is not what it was, and Tillis was probably doomed anyway, if not in a primary, then at the hands of Roy Cooper. The main impact of his announcement is that he could be more independent now. But after this bill, there isn't some big GOP agenda. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis says he's not running for re-election in North Carolina
The announcement comes one day after Tillis opposed a massive bill for Trump's agenda in the Senate.
www.nbcnews.com
June 29, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Incumbency advantage is not what it was, and Tillis was probably doomed anyway, if not in a primary, then at the hands of Roy Cooper. The main impact of his announcement is that he could be more independent now. But after this bill, there isn't some big GOP agenda. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
Reposted by David Karol
My survey also asked NYC Democrats about their views & their sense of Cuomo & Mamdani's views on key issues.
Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support?
* ideology ✅
* crime ✅
* housing ❌
* congestion pricing ❌
* Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌
Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support?
* ideology ✅
* crime ✅
* housing ❌
* congestion pricing ❌
* Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌
Here is a plot showing the shifting support across the Democratic mayoral candidates in our @today.yougov.com two-wave panel of NYC Democrats.
* Our second wave was May 27-June 16.
* Cuomo -> 47% of first-choice preferences.
* Mamdani -> 22% of first-choices preferences.
* Our second wave was May 27-June 16.
* Cuomo -> 47% of first-choice preferences.
* Mamdani -> 22% of first-choices preferences.
June 28, 2025 at 3:09 PM
My survey also asked NYC Democrats about their views & their sense of Cuomo & Mamdani's views on key issues.
Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support?
* ideology ✅
* crime ✅
* housing ❌
* congestion pricing ❌
* Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌
Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support?
* ideology ✅
* crime ✅
* housing ❌
* congestion pricing ❌
* Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌
Understandably, there's a focus on Trump & DOJ, but re "elites", UVA's board have only 4 yr terms, so almost all are Youngkin picks. That's too short a term to insure independence. U. of California Regents once served 16 years, now 12 years. Gov. Reagan needed some Dems support to oust Clark Kerr.
the president does not actually have the power to fire a university president or a museum director, but if elites simply roll over under pressure, then effectively he does
June 27, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Understandably, there's a focus on Trump & DOJ, but re "elites", UVA's board have only 4 yr terms, so almost all are Youngkin picks. That's too short a term to insure independence. U. of California Regents once served 16 years, now 12 years. Gov. Reagan needed some Dems support to oust Clark Kerr.
Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.
Democrats are dominating special elections.
But is that as good a sign for them as it used to be? I looked at the history -- and what’s shifting now.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
But is that as good a sign for them as it used to be? I looked at the history -- and what’s shifting now.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
What Democratic swings in special elections mean for 2026
Special election results are providing insight into the 2026 election outlook, with Democrats making significant gains across the country.
www.washingtonpost.com
June 27, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.
Cuomo was feared, not loved. This guy highlights collective action problem "establishment" faced re Cuomo, who seemed likely to win and is vindictive. The only way to override this bandwagon dynamic was for a strong, acceptable alternative focal point to emerge early. Could've been Tish James.
Here's a fun thing that a top donor to Andrew Cuomo's super PAC just told me.
June 26, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Cuomo was feared, not loved. This guy highlights collective action problem "establishment" faced re Cuomo, who seemed likely to win and is vindictive. The only way to override this bandwagon dynamic was for a strong, acceptable alternative focal point to emerge early. Could've been Tish James.
Bsky posters could see a poll showing Gen X being pro-Cuomo and say, "We suck". They can't say that about Black voters though, but it's awkward to note most backed Cuomo, so a discreet silence will be observed re Mamdani's loss of this sector.
Stephen Miller's fearmongering about immigration aside, the ultimate irony of this tweet is, as @davidshor.bsky.social has flagged, Trump won partially because he won in majority-immigrant areas of the country. Mamdani largely won because of upper-class white people.
June 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Bsky posters could see a poll showing Gen X being pro-Cuomo and say, "We suck". They can't say that about Black voters though, but it's awkward to note most backed Cuomo, so a discreet silence will be observed re Mamdani's loss of this sector.