@contraofdiction.bsky.social
Reposted
New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
May 28, 2025 at 2:34 PM
New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
Reposted
I fear the biggest thing hampering US intelligence collection is the view around the world that we no longer stand for anything. The Administration appears corrupt and uninterested in playing a positive global role.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
CIA chief faces stiff test in bid to revitalize human spying
CIA Director John Ratcliffe wants to rebuild the agency’s diminished ranks of spies and foreign agents. But have espionage’s golden days passed?
www.washingtonpost.com
May 28, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I fear the biggest thing hampering US intelligence collection is the view around the world that we no longer stand for anything. The Administration appears corrupt and uninterested in playing a positive global role.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Reposted
'Kafkaesque' -which indeed it is- is the least of it; it seeks to ensure the Executive's capture of the Judiciary and it opens the door to organized crime to intimidate or cherry pick and place judges on the bench
👇
www.ft.com/content/2b5c..., @financialtimes.com
👇
www.ft.com/content/2b5c..., @financialtimes.com
Mexico embarks on ‘Kafkaesque’ experiment to elect judges
Investors fear radical overhaul will make it impossible to win any case against government
www.ft.com
May 26, 2025 at 4:54 PM
'Kafkaesque' -which indeed it is- is the least of it; it seeks to ensure the Executive's capture of the Judiciary and it opens the door to organized crime to intimidate or cherry pick and place judges on the bench
👇
www.ft.com/content/2b5c..., @financialtimes.com
👇
www.ft.com/content/2b5c..., @financialtimes.com
Reposted
Jack Watling on the Ukraine war. Russia's "summer offensive will likely have a soft launch with a steady increase in the number and scale of assaults across a broadening area around the main axis ... indications this process has already started."
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Ukraine Prepares for a Russian Summer Offensive
Russia will seek to intensify offensive operations to build pressure during negotiations, but the pressure cannot be sustained indefinitely.
www.rusi.org
May 20, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Jack Watling on the Ukraine war. Russia's "summer offensive will likely have a soft launch with a steady increase in the number and scale of assaults across a broadening area around the main axis ... indications this process has already started."
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Reposted
Been tracking DIA assessments of North Korea for a while and this jumps out:
2025 ATA (armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...): “almost certainly capable of mounting a prolonged defense”
2021 (www.dia.mil/Portals/110/...): KPA at 0.5x resources for sustaining defensive combat operations.
2025 ATA (armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...): “almost certainly capable of mounting a prolonged defense”
2021 (www.dia.mil/Portals/110/...): KPA at 0.5x resources for sustaining defensive combat operations.
May 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Been tracking DIA assessments of North Korea for a while and this jumps out:
2025 ATA (armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...): “almost certainly capable of mounting a prolonged defense”
2021 (www.dia.mil/Portals/110/...): KPA at 0.5x resources for sustaining defensive combat operations.
2025 ATA (armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...): “almost certainly capable of mounting a prolonged defense”
2021 (www.dia.mil/Portals/110/...): KPA at 0.5x resources for sustaining defensive combat operations.
Reposted
Politicians were such cowards about the drone delusions, and that really pisses me off.
There were no drones, and (I think) the government was nervous about telling the public that given the number of politicians who lost their minds to drone delusion. reason.com/2025/05/09/w...
Newly released documents show what the feds knew about the New Jersey drone scare
Even after the Biden administration realized the most alarming claims were bunk, it didn't publicize the evidence it had.
reason.com
May 18, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Politicians were such cowards about the drone delusions, and that really pisses me off.
Reposted
New: GOP congressman during a hearing on Capital Hill today confirms Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered pause in cyber operations against Russia, despite Pentagon denial. www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-con...
GOP congressman confirms Hegseth ordered pause in cyber operations against Russia, despite Pentagon denial
CBS News reported in March that the defense secretary ordered a pause in cyber operations against Russia. Rep. Don Bacon disclosed its duration during a hearing.
www.cbsnews.com
May 16, 2025 at 9:52 PM
New: GOP congressman during a hearing on Capital Hill today confirms Defense Secretary Hegseth ordered pause in cyber operations against Russia, despite Pentagon denial. www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-con...
Reposted
In a blog post for the SCS, I explore the Roman army as a self-consciously multi-ethnic force, responding to racist efforts to purge profiles of minorities and women in the nation's service from DOD websites.
www.classicalstudies.org/scs-blog/mik...
www.classicalstudies.org/scs-blog/mik...
Blog: Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in the Roman Army | Society for Classical Studies
www.classicalstudies.org
May 15, 2025 at 8:34 PM
In a blog post for the SCS, I explore the Roman army as a self-consciously multi-ethnic force, responding to racist efforts to purge profiles of minorities and women in the nation's service from DOD websites.
www.classicalstudies.org/scs-blog/mik...
www.classicalstudies.org/scs-blog/mik...
Reposted
Bats carrying firebombs also have the distinction of being the only weapons system identified as inherently indiscriminate in one of my favorite footnotes to the DoD Law of War Manual.
May 15, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Bats carrying firebombs also have the distinction of being the only weapons system identified as inherently indiscriminate in one of my favorite footnotes to the DoD Law of War Manual.
Reposted
The long-post-that-was-promised is here! And it's on Taiwan and why I think the predictions of a war of attrition are looking to the wrong things for judging the character of next war.
open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl...
open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl...
In Defense of Taiwan: Attrition or Annihilation?
Stockpiles, Industry, and Battle and the Danger of Overcorrecting
open.substack.com
May 14, 2025 at 8:15 PM
The long-post-that-was-promised is here! And it's on Taiwan and why I think the predictions of a war of attrition are looking to the wrong things for judging the character of next war.
open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl...
open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl...
Reposted
This new Times piece on the last month of American bombing of Yemen has some insane details.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
May 13, 2025 at 12:20 AM
This new Times piece on the last month of American bombing of Yemen has some insane details.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/u...
Reposted
If so, then it has shades of the 1990 crisis. On that occasion Pakistan appeared to move nuclear warheads in “unbelievably explicit” ways it knew would be visible to US satellites, triggering US involvement. From Vipin Narang’s book:
May 10, 2025 at 5:48 PM
If so, then it has shades of the 1990 crisis. On that occasion Pakistan appeared to move nuclear warheads in “unbelievably explicit” ways it knew would be visible to US satellites, triggering US involvement. From Vipin Narang’s book:
Reposted
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
May 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
Reposted
Have to mention that Pakistan's denial of harboring the terrorists who struck India is colored by the many terrorists who somehow had freedom of movement within Pakistan, from UBL to the guys who killed my friends.
May 6, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Have to mention that Pakistan's denial of harboring the terrorists who struck India is colored by the many terrorists who somehow had freedom of movement within Pakistan, from UBL to the guys who killed my friends.
Reposted
My book contains a lengthy section on nuclear risks in South Asia. These were the closing words I had.
May 10, 2025 at 1:28 AM
My book contains a lengthy section on nuclear risks in South Asia. These were the closing words I had.
Reposted
Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.
Another threshold of escalation crumbles: India apparently has started air operations inside Pakistan. (This was the suggestion with the SEAD strikes yesterday.)
May 10, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.
Reposted
Another intelligence loss for the U.S. Ally Denmark likely to stop sharing intelligence. For no gain.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/w...
Denmark Outraged by Report of Increased Spying in Greenland
www.nytimes.com
May 9, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Another intelligence loss for the U.S. Ally Denmark likely to stop sharing intelligence. For no gain.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/w...
Reposted
Don’t miss this free episode of Thinking the Unthinkable where Ankit Panda and Sameer Lalwani discuss the risks involved in a military conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
May 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Don’t miss this free episode of Thinking the Unthinkable where Ankit Panda and Sameer Lalwani discuss the risks involved in a military conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Reposted
Hi all,
I’ve published a short Substack post summarizing what we know about Operation Sindoor, which resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter aircraft, along with some initial implications of the strike.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/operation...
1/2
I’ve published a short Substack post summarizing what we know about Operation Sindoor, which resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter aircraft, along with some initial implications of the strike.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/operation...
1/2
Operation Sindoor: Indian Air Strikes and Pakistani Air Defenses
Assessment of force employment, platform vulnerability, and technological shifts
missilematters.substack.com
May 7, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Hi all,
I’ve published a short Substack post summarizing what we know about Operation Sindoor, which resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter aircraft, along with some initial implications of the strike.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/operation...
1/2
I’ve published a short Substack post summarizing what we know about Operation Sindoor, which resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter aircraft, along with some initial implications of the strike.
You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/operation...
1/2
Reposted
Sobering report from CBO: Nuke modernization cost expected to reach nearly $1 Trillion the next decade, 25% more than projected last year. www.cbo.gov/system/files...
This train wreck has been 15 years in the making as officials downplayed cost/risks of excessive modernization.
This train wreck has been 15 years in the making as officials downplayed cost/risks of excessive modernization.
April 25, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Sobering report from CBO: Nuke modernization cost expected to reach nearly $1 Trillion the next decade, 25% more than projected last year. www.cbo.gov/system/files...
This train wreck has been 15 years in the making as officials downplayed cost/risks of excessive modernization.
This train wreck has been 15 years in the making as officials downplayed cost/risks of excessive modernization.
Reposted
China’s 2010 rare earth embargo reshaped global supply chains overnight. While Japan diversified and reduced its dependency, the U.S. remains reliant on China 15 years later, leaving key industries like defense and tech exposed to strategic vulnerabilities.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/b...
How China Took Over the World’s Rare Earths Industry
China seized mines and built factories. Japan took note and invested in Australia. But the United States did little despite concerns about control of supplies.
www.nytimes.com
April 19, 2025 at 9:09 PM
China’s 2010 rare earth embargo reshaped global supply chains overnight. While Japan diversified and reduced its dependency, the U.S. remains reliant on China 15 years later, leaving key industries like defense and tech exposed to strategic vulnerabilities.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/b...
Reposted
China's military high command is in the midst of extraordinary upheaval, and Xi Jinping has purged half the uniformed members of the Central Military Commission little more than two years after choosing them. My deep dive on why it's happening and what it means:
markparkeryoung.net/posts/turmoi...
markparkeryoung.net/posts/turmoi...
April 17, 2025 at 11:11 PM
China's military high command is in the midst of extraordinary upheaval, and Xi Jinping has purged half the uniformed members of the Central Military Commission little more than two years after choosing them. My deep dive on why it's happening and what it means:
markparkeryoung.net/posts/turmoi...
markparkeryoung.net/posts/turmoi...
Reposted
Cables from US embassies reveal how the silencing of VOA, RFE/RL, RFA, MBN and Radio/TV Marti are harming US interests abroad
April 17, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Cables from US embassies reveal how the silencing of VOA, RFE/RL, RFA, MBN and Radio/TV Marti are harming US interests abroad
Reposted
UPDATE: It happened. In an 11:15 meeting, employees were told that the office has been eliminated and their positions will be terminated.
SCOOP: sources tell me that the State Dept plans to eliminate its only office to counter foreign disinformation, as soon as today, delivering a win to foreign governments like Russia, Iran, and China—and the office's mostly conservative critics.
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/16/1...
www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/16/1...
US office that counters foreign disinformation is being eliminated, say officials
Conservative critics have long accused the department of helping to censor the American right.
www.technologyreview.com
April 16, 2025 at 3:34 PM
UPDATE: It happened. In an 11:15 meeting, employees were told that the office has been eliminated and their positions will be terminated.