Hans Kristensen
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Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat.bsky.social

Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/ .. more

Hans Møller Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He writes about nuclear weapons policy there; he is coauthor of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the World Nuclear Forces appendix in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual SIPRI Yearbook. .. more

Political science 75%
Engineering 9%
Pinned
Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: The changing nuclear landscape in Europe. It provides our overview of the nuclear situation, with focus on non-strategic nukes. All the players are increasing their nuclear postures. Check details here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

6/ The US and international community must work to resolve this issue with China. But it would be an extraordinarily reckless decision if the Trump administration used this to resume US nuclear tests. The US does not need to test but to prevent others from doing so.

5/ Very low yield nuclear tests are unlikely to give China a military advantage. A 2012 NAS study suggests plausible technical gains could be related to codes, safety, and very low yield designs. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...

4/ Despite concern about China's efforts to conceal such tests, the US allegations suggest China has failed to do so and that the US Intelligence Community actually has considerable insight into Chinese activities.

3/ One explosion allegedly happened on 22 June 2020. The US treaty compliance reports from 2020 and 2021 did not provide details but expressed general concern.

2/ Detonations that produce a nuclear yield from the fission process would be a violation of China's obligations under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The international community must insist China provides transparency to resolve this issue; denial and obfuscation will not.

1/ The Trump administration's speech at the Conference on Disarmament accuses China of having conducted experiments to hide very low yield nuclear explosions and also made plans for bigger ones (less than 1 kiloton) not yet detonated. geneva.usmission.gov/2026/02/06/u...
U.S. Statement at the Conference on Disarmament - U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Geneva
geneva.usmission.gov

7/7 - Blog about implications of New START expiring: fas.org/publication/...

NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...

More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...
https://fas.org/publication/th…

6/7 - The Federation of American Scientists was founded by the scientists who invented the nukes because they understood the risks they create. Going forward, our work to monitor the status of nuclear forces is as important as ever as we continue to inform the public.

5/7 - During the Cold War, the world had to learn the hard way that more or better nuclear weapons don't increase security but trigger responses that undermine it. It seems the world now has to learn the same lesson once again.

4/7 - With limits falling away and norms eroding, the world is facing an open-ended nuclear competition that has all the warning signs of a nuclear arms race. Everyone is busy demonstrating resolve and symbolically throw more nukes at security challenges, making things worse.

3/7 - Below the strategic level, both sides are fielding new nukes that are adding to the sense of insecurity and further fueling military and political competition. Smaller nuclear states are also increasing their postures. Some non-nuclear states are debating going nuclear.

2/7 - Even so, the damage seems to be done. Both sides are preparing steps to increase their deployed nuclear forces. Even if the two agree on a temporary limit, defense hawks are pushing for US to increase in response to China's buildup.

1/7 - The New START treaty - last remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty - expired today. Russia and the United States have so far failed to prepare a replacement treaty. At best, the two may agree voluntarily not to exceed the limits for a while.

Good to see this clearheaded rejection of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. newsletter.ivodaalder.com/p/americas-s...

Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.

One of the most dangerous flaws in the US system is that politicians can stack the courts. It undermines checks and balances. Trump is exploiting this flaw to his benefit.

“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...
Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor
www.nytimes.com

In response to the Trump regime’s threats to take Greenland, the joint statement with France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, subsequently endorsed by Netherlands, Canada stm.dk/statsministe..., was accompanied by joint statement from all the Nordic countries: um.dk/en#/embedded...

Five years ago, a violent mob incited by Trump stormed Congress as part of his efforts to overturn the presidential election. He lied about it then, has lied about it ever since, even pardoned the criminals. Reckless voters put him back and he continues to destroy the country.

The Dutch say they also support the statement. x.com/minpres/stat...

Reposted by James Cameron

Amazing situation where the six large European NATO members (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom) issue joint statement with Denmark reaffirming Greenland/Denmark autonomy, NATO membership after threat from Trump regime to take Greenland. stm.dk/statsministe...

It is obviously deeply hypocritical that Miller - who otherwise rants about US border protection and immigration “invasion” threat against US sovereignty - dismisses Greenland/Denmark criticism of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. But all he understands is the power.
TAPPER: Can you rule out the US is going to take Greenland by force?

MILLER: Greenland should be part of the US. By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? The US is the power of NATO

T: So force is on the table?

M: Nobody is gonna fight the US militarily over future of Greenland
TAPPER: Can you rule out the US is going to take Greenland by force?

MILLER: Greenland should be part of the US. By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? The US is the power of NATO

T: So force is on the table?

M: Nobody is gonna fight the US militarily over future of Greenland

In response to repeated threats from the Trump regime, the Danish government yesterday issued the following statement.

US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.

The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...

A day after Trump attack on Venezuela and abduction of Maduro, the Danish ambassador to the United States reacts to crazy post from wife of Trump advisor Stephen Miller about US takeover of Greenland.

Few in Greenland or Denmark can recognize the United States today.

As Trump chaos grows with Venezuela attack, it will be wild to follow elements of his “plan” unfold:

• “running” the country
• legal “wrath” process against Maduro
• sending US oil in to “fix” Venezuela oil
• war on (some) drugs and immigrants

BBC: www.bbc.com/news/article...
Who's in charge of Venezuela and what happens next?
Donald Trump says the US will "run" Venezuela until a "safe" transition after capturing its president and first lady.
www.bbc.com

NYT editorial board on Trump’s illegal military adventurism in Venezuela and Caribbean/Pacific:

Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Is Illegal and Unwise. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/o...

Looks like Trump, Rubio’s so-called
“peace president,” has just started bombing Venezuela. www.bbc.com/news/live/c5...

Like Putin, Trump needs a war to distract from problems at home. Disgraceful and illegal.
Venezuela latest: Explosions heard as smoke rises in Caracas
Footage appears to show smoke rising in multiple locations in the Venezuelan capital.
www.bbc.com

Great work by @duitsmanms.bsky.social @dexeve.bsky.social @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social identifying Krichev-6 as site for initial ops of Russian Orehsnik missile unit in Belarus.
: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221... Site matches official video: x.com/komissarwhip... Obviously work in progress.
Possible Oreshnik Deployment in Belarus
A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “The relocation of the Oreshnik system to the territory of Belarus is nearing [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com

WP analysis: How Social Security has gotten worse under Trump. Cuts, reorganization, deteriorating customer service, and no increased efficiency. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

There’s no surprise here; it was never about efficiency but cuts.
How Social Security has gotten worse under Trump
Customer service deteriorated by key measures as the agency enacted sweeping cuts in Trump’s second term, internal data and interviews show.
www.washingtonpost.com

After nearly four years of Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine, Russia is losing soldiers faster than ever, according to BBC study. Of more than one million Russian casualties, between 243,000 and 352,000 are dead. www.bbc.com/news/article...