Hans M. Kristensen

Hans Kristensen

@nukestrat.bsky.social

18K followers 280 following 1.4K posts

Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/ .. more

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Hans Møller Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He writes about nuclear weapons policy there; he is coauthor of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the World Nuclear Forces appendix in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual SIPRI Yearbook. .. more

Political science 75%

Engineering 9%

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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Dec 10

Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: The changing nuclear landscape in Europe. It provides our overview of the nuclear situation, with focus on non-strategic nukes. All the players are increasing their nuclear postures. Check details here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 5h

Among the great mysteries in this universe is why any religious person can possibly have any confidence in Trump’s ethics. Is there any of the Ten Commandments he hasn’t violated?

New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 6h

Excellent article by @radiofreetom.bsky.social on hormone Hegseth’s announcement the Pentagon will cut all ties with Harvard and its programs. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Pete Hegseth’s Attack on Harvard

The anger at the Ivy League is about status envy, not war-fighting.

www.theatlantic.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 10h

The large nuclear powers are repeating the errors of the Cold War in boosting their arsenals in a dangerous action-reaction dynamic. Not known for intelligent thinking, the Trump regime signals intent to do its part. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/u...

Newly Unbound, Trump Weighs More Nuclear Arms and Underground Tests

www.nytimes.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 1d

My colleague @mattkorda.bsky.social in Wired discussing his recent study (with Igor Morić) - Inspections Without Inspectors fas.org/publication/... - about use of OSINT for arms control. www.wired.com/story/satell...

AI Is Here to Replace Nuclear Treaties. Scared Yet?

The last major nuclear arms treaty between the US and Russia just expired. Some experts believe a combination of satellite surveillance, AI, and human reviewers can take its place. Others, not so much...

www.wired.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 1d

The Winter Olympics are underway but some U.S. competitors find it complicated to represent the United States because of the despicable things the Trump regime is doing.

“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...

Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians

“Just because I’m wearing the flag doesn’t mean I represent everything that’s going on in the U.S.,” says freestyle skier Hunter Hess.

www.washingtonpost.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 2d

Trump regime’s latest effort to whitewash history and control narrative: all State department posts on X made before Trump took office in 2025 will be removed. That includes accounts for US embassies, missions, ambassadors, department bureaus, programs. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...

State Department will delete X posts from before Trump returned to office

The policy change orders the removal of any post made by official State Department accounts on X before President Trump returned to office in 2025.

www.npr.org

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 2d

Making military dumber: Pentagon cuts ties with Harvard University, ending all military training, fellowships and certificate programs. apnews.com/article/harv...

Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.

Pentagon says it's cutting ties with 'woke' Harvard, discontinuing military training, fellowships

The Pentagon says it will cut ties with Harvard University, ending military training, fellowships and certificate programs.

apnews.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

6/ The US and international community must work to resolve this issue with China. But it would be an extraordinarily reckless decision if the Trump administration used this to resume US nuclear tests. The US does not need to test but to prevent others from doing so.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

5/ Very low yield nuclear tests are unlikely to give China a military advantage. A 2012 NAS study suggests plausible technical gains could be related to codes, safety, and very low yield designs. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

4/ Despite concern about China's efforts to conceal such tests, the US allegations suggest China has failed to do so and that the US Intelligence Community actually has considerable insight into Chinese activities.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

3/ One explosion allegedly happened on 22 June 2020. The US treaty compliance reports from 2020 and 2021 did not provide details but expressed general concern.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

2/ Detonations that produce a nuclear yield from the fission process would be a violation of China's obligations under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The international community must insist China provides transparency to resolve this issue; denial and obfuscation will not.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 3d

1/ The Trump administration's speech at the Conference on Disarmament accuses China of having conducted experiments to hide very low yield nuclear explosions and also made plans for bigger ones (less than 1 kiloton) not yet detonated. geneva.usmission.gov/2026/02/06/u...

U.S. Statement at the Conference on Disarmament - U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Geneva

geneva.usmission.gov

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

7/7 - Blog about implications of New START expiring: fas.org/publication/...

NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...

More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...

https://fas.org/publication/th…

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

6/7 - The Federation of American Scientists was founded by the scientists who invented the nukes because they understood the risks they create. Going forward, our work to monitor the status of nuclear forces is as important as ever as we continue to inform the public.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

5/7 - During the Cold War, the world had to learn the hard way that more or better nuclear weapons don't increase security but trigger responses that undermine it. It seems the world now has to learn the same lesson once again.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

4/7 - With limits falling away and norms eroding, the world is facing an open-ended nuclear competition that has all the warning signs of a nuclear arms race. Everyone is busy demonstrating resolve and symbolically throw more nukes at security challenges, making things worse.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

3/7 - Below the strategic level, both sides are fielding new nukes that are adding to the sense of insecurity and further fueling military and political competition. Smaller nuclear states are also increasing their postures. Some non-nuclear states are debating going nuclear.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

2/7 - Even so, the damage seems to be done. Both sides are preparing steps to increase their deployed nuclear forces. Even if the two agree on a temporary limit, defense hawks are pushing for US to increase in response to China's buildup.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 4d

1/7 - The New START treaty - last remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty - expired today. Russia and the United States have so far failed to prepare a replacement treaty. At best, the two may agree voluntarily not to exceed the limits for a while.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 29d

Good to see this clearheaded rejection of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. newsletter.ivodaalder.com/p/americas-s...

Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 29d

One of the most dangerous flaws in the US system is that politicians can stack the courts. It undermines checks and balances. Trump is exploiting this flaw to his benefit.

“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...

Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor

www.nytimes.com

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 7

In response to the Trump regime’s threats to take Greenland, the joint statement with France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, subsequently endorsed by Netherlands, Canada stm.dk/statsministe..., was accompanied by joint statement from all the Nordic countries: um.dk/en#/embedded...

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 7

Five years ago, a violent mob incited by Trump stormed Congress as part of his efforts to overturn the presidential election. He lied about it then, has lied about it ever since, even pardoned the criminals. Reckless voters put him back and he continues to destroy the country.

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 6

The Dutch say they also support the statement. x.com/minpres/stat...

Reposted by James Cameron

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 6

Amazing situation where the six large European NATO members (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom) issue joint statement with Denmark reaffirming Greenland/Denmark autonomy, NATO membership after threat from Trump regime to take Greenland. stm.dk/statsministe...

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 6

It is obviously deeply hypocritical that Miller - who otherwise rants about US border protection and immigration “invasion” threat against US sovereignty - dismisses Greenland/Denmark criticism of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. But all he understands is the power.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Jan 5

TAPPER: Can you rule out the US is going to take Greenland by force?

MILLER: Greenland should be part of the US. By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? The US is the power of NATO

T: So force is on the table?

M: Nobody is gonna fight the US militarily over future of Greenland

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Jan W. Mueller, Brendan Nyhan , and 33 more Anne Applebaum, Jan W. Mueller, Brendan Nyhan, Ken Caldeira, Patrick A. Jansen, John Horgan, Steve Peers, Michael A. Clemens, Fabio Sabatini, Hans M. Kristensen, Adam Bonica, Daniel W. Drezner, Devon Greyson, Jonathan Hopkin, Laurent Pech, David R. Miller, Aaron Sojourner, Gerald Friedman, Paolo Beria, Aurélien Mondon, Peter Stegmaier, Philipp Sarasin, Christian Rauh, Henry Jones, Greg Linden, Federica Genovese, Tim Stephens, Christina Pagel, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Nicolai von Ondarza, Mark Klamberg, Prakash Kashwan, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Timothy D. McBride, David Darmofal, Elise Thomas

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Jan 5

Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · Jan 5

In response to repeated threats from the Trump regime, the Danish government yesterday issued the following statement.

US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.

The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...

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