Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat.bsky.social
Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/
Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/
Pinned
Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat.bsky.social
· Dec 10
Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: The changing nuclear landscape in Europe. It provides our overview of the nuclear situation, with focus on non-strategic nukes. All the players are increasing their nuclear postures. Check details here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
The Trump regime is planning to announce “the most significant deregulatory actions in history” to make it easier for industry to pollute the atmosphere and harder to fight climate change. apnews.com/article/trum...
February 10, 2026 at 4:28 PM
The Trump regime is planning to announce “the most significant deregulatory actions in history” to make it easier for industry to pollute the atmosphere and harder to fight climate change. apnews.com/article/trum...
Among the great mysteries in this universe is why any religious person can possibly have any confidence in Trump’s ethics. Is there any of the Ten Commandments he hasn’t violated?
New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
February 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Among the great mysteries in this universe is why any religious person can possibly have any confidence in Trump’s ethics. Is there any of the Ten Commandments he hasn’t violated?
New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
New poll from the Pew Research Center:
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Excellent article by @radiofreetom.bsky.social on hormone Hegseth’s announcement the Pentagon will cut all ties with Harvard and its programs. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Pete Hegseth’s Attack on Harvard
The anger at the Ivy League is about status envy, not war-fighting.
www.theatlantic.com
February 10, 2026 at 7:04 AM
Excellent article by @radiofreetom.bsky.social on hormone Hegseth’s announcement the Pentagon will cut all ties with Harvard and its programs. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
The large nuclear powers are repeating the errors of the Cold War in boosting their arsenals in a dangerous action-reaction dynamic. Not known for intelligent thinking, the Trump regime signals intent to do its part. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/u...
Newly Unbound, Trump Weighs More Nuclear Arms and Underground Tests
www.nytimes.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:19 AM
The large nuclear powers are repeating the errors of the Cold War in boosting their arsenals in a dangerous action-reaction dynamic. Not known for intelligent thinking, the Trump regime signals intent to do its part. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/u...
My colleague @mattkorda.bsky.social in Wired discussing his recent study (with Igor Morić) - Inspections Without Inspectors fas.org/publication/... - about use of OSINT for arms control. www.wired.com/story/satell...
AI Is Here to Replace Nuclear Treaties. Scared Yet?
The last major nuclear arms treaty between the US and Russia just expired. Some experts believe a combination of satellite surveillance, AI, and human reviewers can take its place. Others, not so much...
www.wired.com
February 9, 2026 at 1:08 PM
My colleague @mattkorda.bsky.social in Wired discussing his recent study (with Igor Morić) - Inspections Without Inspectors fas.org/publication/... - about use of OSINT for arms control. www.wired.com/story/satell...
The Winter Olympics are underway but some U.S. competitors find it complicated to represent the United States because of the despicable things the Trump regime is doing.
“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...
“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...
Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians
“Just because I’m wearing the flag doesn’t mean I represent everything that’s going on in the U.S.,” says freestyle skier Hunter Hess.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 8, 2026 at 1:58 PM
The Winter Olympics are underway but some U.S. competitors find it complicated to represent the United States because of the despicable things the Trump regime is doing.
“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...
“Representing the red, white and blue is complicated for some Olympians.” www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olymp...
Trump regime’s latest effort to whitewash history and control narrative: all State department posts on X made before Trump took office in 2025 will be removed. That includes accounts for US embassies, missions, ambassadors, department bureaus, programs. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...
State Department will delete X posts from before Trump returned to office
The policy change orders the removal of any post made by official State Department accounts on X before President Trump returned to office in 2025.
www.npr.org
February 8, 2026 at 5:32 AM
Trump regime’s latest effort to whitewash history and control narrative: all State department posts on X made before Trump took office in 2025 will be removed. That includes accounts for US embassies, missions, ambassadors, department bureaus, programs. www.npr.org/2026/02/07/n...
Making military dumber: Pentagon cuts ties with Harvard University, ending all military training, fellowships and certificate programs. apnews.com/article/harv...
Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.
Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.
Pentagon says it's cutting ties with 'woke' Harvard, discontinuing military training, fellowships
The Pentagon says it will cut ties with Harvard University, ending military training, fellowships and certificate programs.
apnews.com
February 7, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Making military dumber: Pentagon cuts ties with Harvard University, ending all military training, fellowships and certificate programs. apnews.com/article/harv...
Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.
Hormone Hegseth only has use for dumb warriors who don’t know about the world and can’t think for themselves.
In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...
February 6, 2026 at 5:19 PM
In response to the US allegation that China has conducted very low yield nuclear tests, the head of CTBTO issued this statement: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...
6/ The US and international community must work to resolve this issue with China. But it would be an extraordinarily reckless decision if the Trump administration used this to resume US nuclear tests. The US does not need to test but to prevent others from doing so.
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
6/ The US and international community must work to resolve this issue with China. But it would be an extraordinarily reckless decision if the Trump administration used this to resume US nuclear tests. The US does not need to test but to prevent others from doing so.
5/ Very low yield nuclear tests are unlikely to give China a military advantage. A 2012 NAS study suggests plausible technical gains could be related to codes, safety, and very low yield designs. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
5/ Very low yield nuclear tests are unlikely to give China a military advantage. A 2012 NAS study suggests plausible technical gains could be related to codes, safety, and very low yield designs. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...
4/ Despite concern about China's efforts to conceal such tests, the US allegations suggest China has failed to do so and that the US Intelligence Community actually has considerable insight into Chinese activities.
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
4/ Despite concern about China's efforts to conceal such tests, the US allegations suggest China has failed to do so and that the US Intelligence Community actually has considerable insight into Chinese activities.
3/ One explosion allegedly happened on 22 June 2020. The US treaty compliance reports from 2020 and 2021 did not provide details but expressed general concern.
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
3/ One explosion allegedly happened on 22 June 2020. The US treaty compliance reports from 2020 and 2021 did not provide details but expressed general concern.
2/ Detonations that produce a nuclear yield from the fission process would be a violation of China's obligations under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The international community must insist China provides transparency to resolve this issue; denial and obfuscation will not.
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
2/ Detonations that produce a nuclear yield from the fission process would be a violation of China's obligations under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The international community must insist China provides transparency to resolve this issue; denial and obfuscation will not.
1/ The Trump administration's speech at the Conference on Disarmament accuses China of having conducted experiments to hide very low yield nuclear explosions and also made plans for bigger ones (less than 1 kiloton) not yet detonated. geneva.usmission.gov/2026/02/06/u...
U.S. Statement at the Conference on Disarmament - U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Geneva
geneva.usmission.gov
February 6, 2026 at 5:10 PM
1/ The Trump administration's speech at the Conference on Disarmament accuses China of having conducted experiments to hide very low yield nuclear explosions and also made plans for bigger ones (less than 1 kiloton) not yet detonated. geneva.usmission.gov/2026/02/06/u...
7/7 - Blog about implications of New START expiring: fas.org/publication/...
NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...
NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...
https://fas.org/publication/th…
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
7/7 - Blog about implications of New START expiring: fas.org/publication/...
NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...
NYT background article (honored to see our data used): www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...
More information about world nuclear forces and our work: fas.org/initiative/n...
6/7 - The Federation of American Scientists was founded by the scientists who invented the nukes because they understood the risks they create. Going forward, our work to monitor the status of nuclear forces is as important as ever as we continue to inform the public.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
6/7 - The Federation of American Scientists was founded by the scientists who invented the nukes because they understood the risks they create. Going forward, our work to monitor the status of nuclear forces is as important as ever as we continue to inform the public.
5/7 - During the Cold War, the world had to learn the hard way that more or better nuclear weapons don't increase security but trigger responses that undermine it. It seems the world now has to learn the same lesson once again.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
5/7 - During the Cold War, the world had to learn the hard way that more or better nuclear weapons don't increase security but trigger responses that undermine it. It seems the world now has to learn the same lesson once again.
4/7 - With limits falling away and norms eroding, the world is facing an open-ended nuclear competition that has all the warning signs of a nuclear arms race. Everyone is busy demonstrating resolve and symbolically throw more nukes at security challenges, making things worse.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
4/7 - With limits falling away and norms eroding, the world is facing an open-ended nuclear competition that has all the warning signs of a nuclear arms race. Everyone is busy demonstrating resolve and symbolically throw more nukes at security challenges, making things worse.
3/7 - Below the strategic level, both sides are fielding new nukes that are adding to the sense of insecurity and further fueling military and political competition. Smaller nuclear states are also increasing their postures. Some non-nuclear states are debating going nuclear.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
3/7 - Below the strategic level, both sides are fielding new nukes that are adding to the sense of insecurity and further fueling military and political competition. Smaller nuclear states are also increasing their postures. Some non-nuclear states are debating going nuclear.
2/7 - Even so, the damage seems to be done. Both sides are preparing steps to increase their deployed nuclear forces. Even if the two agree on a temporary limit, defense hawks are pushing for US to increase in response to China's buildup.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
2/7 - Even so, the damage seems to be done. Both sides are preparing steps to increase their deployed nuclear forces. Even if the two agree on a temporary limit, defense hawks are pushing for US to increase in response to China's buildup.
1/7 - The New START treaty - last remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty - expired today. Russia and the United States have so far failed to prepare a replacement treaty. At best, the two may agree voluntarily not to exceed the limits for a while.
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
1/7 - The New START treaty - last remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty - expired today. Russia and the United States have so far failed to prepare a replacement treaty. At best, the two may agree voluntarily not to exceed the limits for a while.
Good to see this clearheaded rejection of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. newsletter.ivodaalder.com/p/americas-s...
Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.
Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.
January 11, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Good to see this clearheaded rejection of the Trump regime’s threat to take Greenland. newsletter.ivodaalder.com/p/americas-s...
Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.
Condemnation is widespread, also in Europe, but as a narcissistic thug, Trump is not constrained by facts or reasoning but feels reaffirmed to continue.
One of the most dangerous flaws in the US system is that politicians can stack the courts. It undermines checks and balances. Trump is exploiting this flaw to his benefit.
“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...
“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...
Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor
www.nytimes.com
January 11, 2026 at 4:06 PM
One of the most dangerous flaws in the US system is that politicians can stack the courts. It undermines checks and balances. Trump is exploiting this flaw to his benefit.
“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...
“Trump’s ‘Superstar’ Appellate Judges Have Voted 133 to 12 in His Favor” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...
In response to the Trump regime’s threats to take Greenland, the joint statement with France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, subsequently endorsed by Netherlands, Canada stm.dk/statsministe..., was accompanied by joint statement from all the Nordic countries: um.dk/en#/embedded...
January 7, 2026 at 4:45 PM
In response to the Trump regime’s threats to take Greenland, the joint statement with France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, subsequently endorsed by Netherlands, Canada stm.dk/statsministe..., was accompanied by joint statement from all the Nordic countries: um.dk/en#/embedded...