Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Today's blog post is inspired by the discussion this week of the 1975 Dismissal. It looks at how Senate majorities have changed since federation, and the role of electoral systems in shaping them. I also put a case that it's multi-party politics that protects us from a repeat of 1975 #auspol
How the Senate has changed since 1975
There has been a great deal of focus this week on the events of the Dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s Labor government, fifty years ago last Tuesday. I have been particularly drawn to examining ho…
www.tallyroom.com.au
November 13, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Today's blog post is inspired by the discussion this week of the 1975 Dismissal. It looks at how Senate majorities have changed since federation, and the role of electoral systems in shaping them. I also put a case that it's multi-party politics that protects us from a repeat of 1975 #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Mackerras: switzer.com.au/the-experts/...
November 11, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Mackerras: switzer.com.au/the-experts/...
Reposted by Ben Raue
Why any politician still has an account on X astounds me.
November 10, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Why any politician still has an account on X astounds me.
Today's blog post looks at the first time the federal parliament was expanded in 1948 - how the pendulum looked before and after the change, and where the marginal seats were located #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63613
The 1948 expansion – the big map change
The first expansion of parliament was passed in 1948, and came into force at the 1949 election. It was also the largest increase we’ve seen, either proportionally or in raw numbers. The House…
www.tallyroom.com.au
November 10, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Today's blog post looks at the first time the federal parliament was expanded in 1948 - how the pendulum looked before and after the change, and where the marginal seats were located #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63613
Reposted by Ben Raue
my take on this growing "roblox should be in the teen social media ban" discourse is that this is what happens when a government tells the electorate/the world that the way to deal with online harms is to ban something for kids, and let everyone else suffer.
Roblox shocks: online gaming platform should be snared by Australia’s social media ban for under-16s, experts and MPs say
Pressure mounts on Labor after Guardian Australia report documenting reporter’s week of virtual sexual harassment and violence while posing as a child avatar
www.theguardian.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:22 PM
my take on this growing "roblox should be in the teen social media ban" discourse is that this is what happens when a government tells the electorate/the world that the way to deal with online harms is to ban something for kids, and let everyone else suffer.
Reposted by Ben Raue
I'll obviously write a more fulsome submission with my colleagues at @abundanthousing.org.au but I'm gonna also write a personal submission responding to (e) with my Most Annoying Opinion Yet:
The Electoral Systems Theory of Political NIMBYism: how single member districts make NIMBYs kingmakers
The Electoral Systems Theory of Political NIMBYism: how single member districts make NIMBYs kingmakers
⚡️BREAKING💥We Greens have just secured a Senate Select Inquiry into Intergenerational Housing Inequity which I will be delighted to Chair. Starts March 17 2026, reports September 30th 2026. 🏠
November 4, 2025 at 6:08 AM
I'll obviously write a more fulsome submission with my colleagues at @abundanthousing.org.au but I'm gonna also write a personal submission responding to (e) with my Most Annoying Opinion Yet:
The Electoral Systems Theory of Political NIMBYism: how single member districts make NIMBYs kingmakers
The Electoral Systems Theory of Political NIMBYism: how single member districts make NIMBYs kingmakers
Reposted by Ben Raue
If you are posting on or engaging with content on X, you are working as a volunteer laborer helping this specific man earn money and political influence.
Any person, group or organisation that is still there and helping keep you there: you have to make them get out, not give them reason to stay
Any person, group or organisation that is still there and helping keep you there: you have to make them get out, not give them reason to stay
Elon Musk, "These lovely small towns in England, Scotland and Ireland, they've been living their lives quietly. They're like hobbits"
"And so one day, 1,000 people show up in your village of 500 and start raping the kids"
"This has now happened, God knows how many times in Britain"
"And so one day, 1,000 people show up in your village of 500 and start raping the kids"
"This has now happened, God knows how many times in Britain"
November 3, 2025 at 9:46 AM
If you are posting on or engaging with content on X, you are working as a volunteer laborer helping this specific man earn money and political influence.
Any person, group or organisation that is still there and helping keep you there: you have to make them get out, not give them reason to stay
Any person, group or organisation that is still there and helping keep you there: you have to make them get out, not give them reason to stay
Reposted by Ben Raue
The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes
November 3, 2025 at 4:29 AM
The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes
It's probably over two years until the next federal election, but I've decided to launch the first part of my federal election guide. It features profiles of 102 House seats in NSW, VIC, WA and NT, and all eight Senate guides. #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63541
Next federal election guide launched
Yes, it’s very early, but I’ve launched my partial guide to the next Australian federal election, due in 2028. This guide covers the 102 House seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Wester…
www.tallyroom.com.au
November 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
It's probably over two years until the next federal election, but I've decided to launch the first part of my federal election guide. It features profiles of 102 House seats in NSW, VIC, WA and NT, and all eight Senate guides. #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63541
Reposted by Ben Raue
Reposted by Ben Raue
I've been getting back into the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series after many years, and the most relatable part is how everyday objects like doors and elevators have been imbued with artificial intelligence and it just makes them obnoxious and frustrating to use and everyone hates it.
November 1, 2025 at 8:55 PM
I've been getting back into the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series after many years, and the most relatable part is how everyday objects like doors and elevators have been imbued with artificial intelligence and it just makes them obnoxious and frustrating to use and everyone hates it.
Yep I was told this by the AEC media team.
Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.
October 31, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Yep I was told this by the AEC media team.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Today's blog post is again about the 1984 election - how many MPs jumped ship to safer seats? And how different was the swing in seats with sitting Labor MPs or without any sitting MP? #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63522
The 1984 expansion – reverse musical chairs
When the new electoral map was published in 1984, it kicked off a game of musical chairs, but with a difference – this time there were more seats than players. Some of these seats were more a…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 27, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Today's blog post is again about the 1984 election - how many MPs jumped ship to safer seats? And how different was the swing in seats with sitting Labor MPs or without any sitting MP? #auspol www.tallyroom.com.au/63522
Reposted by Ben Raue
Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol
The 1984 expansion – how much did the map change?
If there is a substantial expansion of the size of the federal Parliament, it will be a rare event. It has only happened twice before since federation, and hasn’t happened at all in my lifeti…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 27, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Anyone done this bit yet
October 27, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Anyone done this bit yet
Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol
The 1984 expansion – how much did the map change?
If there is a substantial expansion of the size of the federal Parliament, it will be a rare event. It has only happened twice before since federation, and hasn’t happened at all in my lifeti…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 27, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Today's blog post looks back at the 1984 parliamentary expansion - how did it change the shape of the pendulum, and how did it change where marginal seats were located? www.tallyroom.com.au/63515 #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Learned that an anonymous outside expert on submersibles did an interview with the OceanGate Titan investigation, and they released a transcript, with all the names redacted. The first line of his first answer? "I'm sure you're familiar with my film Titanic."
October 16, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Learned that an anonymous outside expert on submersibles did an interview with the OceanGate Titan investigation, and they released a transcript, with all the names redacted. The first line of his first answer? "I'm sure you're familiar with my film Titanic."
Reposted by Ben Raue
Just in time for reference if you're still mulling over registering a political party to contest the election.
I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol
NSW election guide now live
As part of my efforts to prepare election guides for all of the upcoming elections, I have now published a guide to the 2027 NSW state election. While that election is still almost a year and a hal…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 13, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Just in time for reference if you're still mulling over registering a political party to contest the election.
I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol
NSW election guide now live
As part of my efforts to prepare election guides for all of the upcoming elections, I have now published a guide to the 2027 NSW state election. While that election is still almost a year and a hal…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 12, 2025 at 11:22 PM
I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol
New Zealand has undergone a redistribution of their electorate boundaries, and I thought I would summarise the changes and estimate the vote margins for the new seats. #nzpol www.tallyroom.com.au/62140
New Zealand’s new electoral map
New Zealand will go to the polls next year at their next general election, and the electoral map of New Zealand has been redrawn in advance of that election. New Zealand’s parliament is elect…
www.tallyroom.com.au
October 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
New Zealand has undergone a redistribution of their electorate boundaries, and I thought I would summarise the changes and estimate the vote margins for the new seats. #nzpol www.tallyroom.com.au/62140
Reposted by Ben Raue
I'm voting in UQ's Senate election today for the three alumni seats and it's a masterclass in terrible electoral design.
For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.
For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.
September 28, 2025 at 11:55 PM
I'm voting in UQ's Senate election today for the three alumni seats and it's a masterclass in terrible electoral design.
For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.
For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.
In response to an error-riddled op-ed from George Brandis yesterday, I’ve written a post about who would benefit from an expanded parliament. www.tallyroom.com.au/62130
Who would benefit from an expanded parliament?
Today’s blog post is inspired by a strange opinion piece in the Nine papers yesterday by former federal Liberal Attorney-General George Brandis. Brandis’ piece (in addition to incorrect…
www.tallyroom.com.au
September 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
In response to an error-riddled op-ed from George Brandis yesterday, I’ve written a post about who would benefit from an expanded parliament. www.tallyroom.com.au/62130
This op-ed from George Brandis is full of holes and I don't know how The Age let it through.
-He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.
-He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.
September 28, 2025 at 6:48 AM
This op-ed from George Brandis is full of holes and I don't know how The Age let it through.
-He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.
-He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Besides how insulting this is to the hardworking election crew, or how wrong the international comparison is, it ignores a very simple fix: NZ does not have a live progress count after election night. This is why Australian counts feel faster even though they often aren't; we can see results firm up
'Slowest folk on the planet': Luxon says he wants votes to be counted faster
'Slowest folk on the planet': Luxon says he wants votes to be counted faster
The prime minister says he expects the Electoral Commission to speed up the official vote count after an election.
www.rnz.co.nz
September 26, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Besides how insulting this is to the hardworking election crew, or how wrong the international comparison is, it ignores a very simple fix: NZ does not have a live progress count after election night. This is why Australian counts feel faster even though they often aren't; we can see results firm up