Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
hang on what about Tumut, Tumbarumba, the Snowy Mountains and Bega? Left dangling down there?
November 5, 2025 at 5:14 AM
hang on what about Tumut, Tumbarumba, the Snowy Mountains and Bega? Left dangling down there?
That’s what my wife did when she broke her wrist.
November 3, 2025 at 9:52 AM
That’s what my wife did when she broke her wrist.
[first time voting using Robson Rotation] how do you spin it?
November 3, 2025 at 7:09 AM
[first time voting using Robson Rotation] how do you spin it?
You can read the whole guide by signing up as a member via Patreon for $8 (+GST) per month. But I have also unlocked 5 guides for free. www.patreon.com/tallyroom
Get more from The Tally Room on Patreon
creating electoral analysis and podcasts
www.patreon.com
November 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
You can read the whole guide by signing up as a member via Patreon for $8 (+GST) per month. But I have also unlocked 5 guides for free. www.patreon.com/tallyroom
Of course it's possible the parliament will be expanded in which case these will need to be totally rewritten but that's not certain and people are interested in this now, so here it is.
November 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Of course it's possible the parliament will be expanded in which case these will need to be totally rewritten but that's not certain and people are interested in this now, so here it is.
The profiles feature results maps, results tables, histories and comments sections. I'll save assessing each contest and adding candidates for later.
November 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
The profiles feature results maps, results tables, histories and comments sections. I'll save assessing each contest and adding candidates for later.
ironically it made our Parramatta-Redfern trip much quicker than you'd expect on the weekend, because it skipped every station between Burwood and Redfern.
November 1, 2025 at 10:59 AM
ironically it made our Parramatta-Redfern trip much quicker than you'd expect on the weekend, because it skipped every station between Burwood and Redfern.
I'm not sure what the value of doing an incomplete count would be. Ultimately it's not the most important piece of data, even if we are all fascinated by it.
Also I am pretty confident that the number is much closer to my number than the AEC's number, even if I don't have 100% certainty.
Also I am pretty confident that the number is much closer to my number than the AEC's number, even if I don't have 100% certainty.
November 1, 2025 at 10:52 AM
I'm not sure what the value of doing an incomplete count would be. Ultimately it's not the most important piece of data, even if we are all fascinated by it.
Also I am pretty confident that the number is much closer to my number than the AEC's number, even if I don't have 100% certainty.
Also I am pretty confident that the number is much closer to my number than the AEC's number, even if I don't have 100% certainty.
It's unfortunate but ultimately it's just provided for informational purposes.
They did give me an explanation, it relates to not wanting to mix together the challenged ballots and the other ballots.
They did give me an explanation, it relates to not wanting to mix together the challenged ballots and the other ballots.
November 1, 2025 at 7:36 AM
It's unfortunate but ultimately it's just provided for informational purposes.
They did give me an explanation, it relates to not wanting to mix together the challenged ballots and the other ballots.
They did give me an explanation, it relates to not wanting to mix together the challenged ballots and the other ballots.
The candidate with more votes wins, even if the exhaust pile is bigger.
October 31, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The candidate with more votes wins, even if the exhaust pile is bigger.
all of our psephology was developed in an era where nearly everyone voted for one of two major parties, and even when they didn't, all the other parties were never popular enough to make the 2CP. Recently we've had to adapt to the 3CP mattering more but you're already there.
October 30, 2025 at 11:58 PM
all of our psephology was developed in an era where nearly everyone voted for one of two major parties, and even when they didn't, all the other parties were never popular enough to make the 2CP. Recently we've had to adapt to the 3CP mattering more but you're already there.
haha. It is absolutely relevant to single-member contests. They have quite different dynamics to more proportional elections.
October 30, 2025 at 11:58 PM
haha. It is absolutely relevant to single-member contests. They have quite different dynamics to more proportional elections.
most Australian single-member preferential elections require all boxes to be numbered so there's no exhausts but in NSW state elections (where I live) you don't need to number, but they usually exclude exhausts from percentage calculations. Has pluses and minuses.
October 30, 2025 at 11:49 PM
most Australian single-member preferential elections require all boxes to be numbered so there's no exhausts but in NSW state elections (where I live) you don't need to number, but they usually exclude exhausts from percentage calculations. Has pluses and minuses.
yeah we call that stage two-candidate-preferred or 2CP, because our commissions usually pick the likely top two and fast forward to counting that stage before the count is finished and they do the full distribution. But in this case you'd need to know the 3CP before doing the 2CP.
October 30, 2025 at 11:49 PM
yeah we call that stage two-candidate-preferred or 2CP, because our commissions usually pick the likely top two and fast forward to counting that stage before the count is finished and they do the full distribution. But in this case you'd need to know the 3CP before doing the 2CP.