Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Reposted by Ben Raue
Interesting piece by @meganmaurice.bsky.social - ngl, I hadn’t clocked that the system was different in the men’s comp!
One of these finals is not like the other
We need to talk about the WBBL finals format
open.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Interesting piece by @meganmaurice.bsky.social - ngl, I hadn’t clocked that the system was different in the men’s comp!
Reposted by Ben Raue
i have said this before but if you are actually interested in influencing people beyond a narrow circle of too-online journalists you will be making direct to camera videos on tiktok, instagram and youtube. if you primarily post on text-based social media then you're just dicking around.
December 15, 2025 at 7:26 PM
i have said this before but if you are actually interested in influencing people beyond a narrow circle of too-online journalists you will be making direct to camera videos on tiktok, instagram and youtube. if you primarily post on text-based social media then you're just dicking around.
There's a queue of people down two flights of stairs to the front door of the building for the Parramatta blood donation centre. They are booking people in for later appointments one by one, so still worth doing.
December 15, 2025 at 2:54 AM
There's a queue of people down two flights of stairs to the front door of the building for the Parramatta blood donation centre. They are booking people in for later appointments one by one, so still worth doing.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Elon's little serfs are quite literally begging journalists to come back because every publicly available source of data shows people have fled the platform and young people won't use it.
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
December 15, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Elon's little serfs are quite literally begging journalists to come back because every publicly available source of data shows people have fled the platform and young people won't use it.
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
If you have a blood donor enrolment number, should that tell you your blood type? I don't know mine.
December 14, 2025 at 10:09 PM
If you have a blood donor enrolment number, should that tell you your blood type? I don't know mine.
Today's blog post is my last one for the year and it examines the question of whether the 2PP (Labor vs Liberal) is meaningful in seats where it is a Liberal vs Independent contests (mostly the teal seats) #auspol
How meaningful is the Labor 2PP in the teal seats?
For the final blog post of 2025, I wanted to look at a question that has come up regularly in the comments, and on psephological websites: how meaningful is the two-party-preferred vote, particular…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 11, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Today's blog post is my last one for the year and it examines the question of whether the 2PP (Labor vs Liberal) is meaningful in seats where it is a Liberal vs Independent contests (mostly the teal seats) #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Finding your tribe: Why Australia’s social media ban gets It wrong: https://benhr.xyz/2025/12/11/finding-your-tribe-why-australias.html
December 11, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Finding your tribe: Why Australia’s social media ban gets It wrong: https://benhr.xyz/2025/12/11/finding-your-tribe-why-australias.html
Reposted by Ben Raue
Keep thinking of what social media would have meant to me as a teen growing up in isolation in the country.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
December 11, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Keep thinking of what social media would have meant to me as a teen growing up in isolation in the country.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Today I'm looking at some of the facts used to inform the debate around fixed terms.
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
How long do parliamentary terms really last?
There has been a lot of conversation recently about implementing fixed four-year terms for the federal Parliament, with Anthony Albanese indicating support and some reporting that Don Farrell, the …
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Today I'm looking at some of the facts used to inform the debate around fixed terms.
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Ben's doing some fascinating work on parliament expansion and this one makes a key point. The 1948 expansion was a big moment for the urbanisation of Australian politics, but that's done. Now it's a way to get more compact country seats without malapportionment.
Today's blog post dives into history and looks at how the Coalition has responded to past Labor moves to expand the size of the parliament, why the attitude of the National Party changed between 1948 and 1983, and what that has to do with redistribution rules. #auspol
The Nationals and expanding the parliament
Recent reporting, and my own experience, indicates that the federal Labor government is seriously considering an expansion in the size of the Australian federal parliament, echoing the previous exp…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 10, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Ben's doing some fascinating work on parliament expansion and this one makes a key point. The 1948 expansion was a big moment for the urbanisation of Australian politics, but that's done. Now it's a way to get more compact country seats without malapportionment.
Today's blog post dives into history and looks at how the Coalition has responded to past Labor moves to expand the size of the parliament, why the attitude of the National Party changed between 1948 and 1983, and what that has to do with redistribution rules. #auspol
The Nationals and expanding the parliament
Recent reporting, and my own experience, indicates that the federal Labor government is seriously considering an expansion in the size of the Australian federal parliament, echoing the previous exp…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 9, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Today's blog post dives into history and looks at how the Coalition has responded to past Labor moves to expand the size of the parliament, why the attitude of the National Party changed between 1948 and 1983, and what that has to do with redistribution rules. #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Absolutely stunning to see Australia's teen social media ban rushed through while every single government, educational institution and probably a huge number of parents are frantically force-injecting chatbot slop into the mind of every single child in the country without a second's hesitation
‘I feel it’s a friend’: quarter of teenagers turn to AI chatbots for mental health support www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
‘I feel it’s a friend’: quarter of teenagers turn to AI chatbots for mental health support
Experts warn of dangers as England and Wales study shows 13- to 17-year-olds consulting AI amid long waiting lists for services
www.theguardian.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Absolutely stunning to see Australia's teen social media ban rushed through while every single government, educational institution and probably a huge number of parents are frantically force-injecting chatbot slop into the mind of every single child in the country without a second's hesitation
Reposted by Ben Raue
I was just thinking — if these sorts of age gates become routine, they will be an EXCEPTIONAL phishing strategy.
We'll see websites compromised with official-looking data harvesters added in the same way that cryptominers were for ages.
We'll see websites compromised with official-looking data harvesters added in the same way that cryptominers were for ages.
December 9, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I was just thinking — if these sorts of age gates become routine, they will be an EXCEPTIONAL phishing strategy.
We'll see websites compromised with official-looking data harvesters added in the same way that cryptominers were for ages.
We'll see websites compromised with official-looking data harvesters added in the same way that cryptominers were for ages.
Reposted by Ben Raue
What the social media ban assumes about our society is that the places where adults congregate to share ideas are never safe for children. And it’s wrong
December 9, 2025 at 1:21 AM
What the social media ban assumes about our society is that the places where adults congregate to share ideas are never safe for children. And it’s wrong
Today's blog post is one I've been working on for a while - I have drawn a map of what the electoral map could look like if the Parliament expanded to 16 senators per state and 200 seats in the House. #auspol
What might an expanded parliament map look like?
A lot of people would love to know how the electoral map would change if the parliament was expanded. We’ve already been able to get some idea of what might happen by looking back at the hist…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 8, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Today's blog post is one I've been working on for a while - I have drawn a map of what the electoral map could look like if the Parliament expanded to 16 senators per state and 200 seats in the House. #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Chatted with @benraue.com about one of those niche #auspol topics I know too much about - the history of & evolution of Labor factions www.tallyroom.com.au/63678 #auspol
Podcast #159 – The Labor factions
Ben was joined this week by Osmond Chiu, Per Capita research fellow and contributor editor for the Labor Left magazine Challenge, to discuss the factions of the Australian Labor Party. Read Osmond&…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 8, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Chatted with @benraue.com about one of those niche #auspol topics I know too much about - the history of & evolution of Labor factions www.tallyroom.com.au/63678 #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
I just published a new working paper with Melbourne Law School's Electoral Regulation Research Network building on the work I've been doing on the appropriateness of Australian legislatures' sizes. Give it a read maybe??
December 5, 2025 at 3:24 AM
I just published a new working paper with Melbourne Law School's Electoral Regulation Research Network building on the work I've been doing on the appropriateness of Australian legislatures' sizes. Give it a read maybe??
For today's blog post, I looked at the recent DemosAU MRP. We really don't know a lot about how preferences would flow in races where One Nation are in the top two - but if they are polling in the high teens and the Coalition vote collapses, they could win a bunch of seats #auspol
How would the One Nation surge translate into seats?
There has been a clear trend in recent federal polling – One Nation has been gaining ground, seemingly at the expense of the Coalition. We’ve now reached a point where One Nation are re…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 4, 2025 at 10:41 PM
For today's blog post, I looked at the recent DemosAU MRP. We really don't know a lot about how preferences would flow in races where One Nation are in the top two - but if they are polling in the high teens and the Coalition vote collapses, they could win a bunch of seats #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Great stuff from Judy Brett.
December 3, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Great stuff from Judy Brett.
The Victorian Electoral Matters Committee has recommended that group voting tickets be abolished as soon as possible, with an independent process after 2026 to come to a proposal on a referendum to change the upper house electoral structure. My take is here: #springst
Victoria moves towards abolishing GVT
The Electoral Matters Committee of the Victorian Parliament yesterday brought down the final report for their inquiry into Victoria’s upper house electoral system. The report brings Victoria …
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 2, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The Victorian Electoral Matters Committee has recommended that group voting tickets be abolished as soon as possible, with an independent process after 2026 to come to a proposal on a referendum to change the upper house electoral structure. My take is here: #springst
Reposted by Ben Raue
A note re #Hinchinbrook - it is almost certainly NOT the case that One Nation's decision to recommend preferences to the LNP caused the LNP to win the seat. The follow rate for One Nation how to vote cards is nowhere near high enough for it to be so.
December 1, 2025 at 11:19 PM
A note re #Hinchinbrook - it is almost certainly NOT the case that One Nation's decision to recommend preferences to the LNP caused the LNP to win the seat. The follow rate for One Nation how to vote cards is nowhere near high enough for it to be so.
There's a great interactive in the Guardian today looking at Group Voting Tickets in Victoria and possible alternative models to replace the current system, featuring analysis from myself #vicpol www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...
Voting in Victoria is broken. Here’s how it could be fixed and who would benefit
Victoria is the only state to still use group voting tickets to elect its upper house. What will it mean for voters and the parliament if it abolishes them?
www.theguardian.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:00 PM
There's a great interactive in the Guardian today looking at Group Voting Tickets in Victoria and possible alternative models to replace the current system, featuring analysis from myself #vicpol www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...
Today's podcast is with Sarah Cameron about the 2025 Australian Election Study. We discuss generational and gender splits, Peter Dutton's (lack of) popularity, changing attitudes to the USA and voter dealignment.
www.tallyroom.com.au/63669 #auspol
www.tallyroom.com.au/63669 #auspol
Podcast #158 – The 2025 Australian Election Study
Ben was joined by Sarah Cameron from Griffith University, to discuss the results of the 2025 Australian Election Study, including Peter Dutton’s unpopularity, foreign policy, voter dealignmen…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 1, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Today's podcast is with Sarah Cameron about the 2025 Australian Election Study. We discuss generational and gender splits, Peter Dutton's (lack of) popularity, changing attitudes to the USA and voter dealignment.
www.tallyroom.com.au/63669 #auspol
www.tallyroom.com.au/63669 #auspol
I'm following the Hinchinbrook count here: www.tallyroom.com.au/63655
First eight booths strong for LNP (and ON) and weak for KAP.
First eight booths strong for LNP (and ON) and weak for KAP.
Hinchinbrook by-election live
7:02 – Eight booths have reported, and the LNP is on 43.8%, with Katter’s Australian Party second on 25.7% and One Nation on 19.3%. That’s a swing of 19.5% to the LNP and 15.6% to…
www.tallyroom.com.au
November 29, 2025 at 9:05 AM
I'm following the Hinchinbrook count here: www.tallyroom.com.au/63655
First eight booths strong for LNP (and ON) and weak for KAP.
First eight booths strong for LNP (and ON) and weak for KAP.
Today's podcast is with former Liberal ministerial staffer (and my colleague) Michael Evangelidis about how the Liberal factions work.
www.tallyroom.com.au/63641 #auspol
www.tallyroom.com.au/63641 #auspol
Podcast #157 – The Liberal factions
Ben was joined by Michael Evangelidis from GovConnex to discuss the factions of the Liberal Party of Australia – how fluid they are, how they work from the branch level to federal and state p…
www.tallyroom.com.au
November 25, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Today's podcast is with former Liberal ministerial staffer (and my colleague) Michael Evangelidis about how the Liberal factions work.
www.tallyroom.com.au/63641 #auspol
www.tallyroom.com.au/63641 #auspol