Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Today I've published two by-election guides for upcoming by-elections: for the NT seat of Nightcliff and for the mayoralty of Newcastle. Both incumbents announced their resignations for health reasons yesterday. #ntpol #nswpol
Two more by-elections coming up
Two different politicians announced their retirements today due to health reasons, causing two by-elections that are worth watching. Kat McNamara won the Northern Territory seat of Nightcliff at th…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 10, 2026 at 3:27 AM
Today's post is my case for crafting a new single-member electoral system which takes a bit from optional preferential voting and a bit from compulsory preferential voting, and why it could work now in Queensland #auspol #qldpol
Ending the OPV-CPV wars
One of the most common arguments regarding Australian electoral systems concerns whether voters are required to number every box on their ballot paper in single-member elections. There are principl…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM
Reposted by Ben Raue
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
February 5, 2026 at 10:44 PM
In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...
In today's post, I make the case that neither major party can rely on a consistent self-interested advantage from OPV or CPV, but rather that self-interest will be different in different seats, and over time. #qldpol
In Queensland, OPV gives and OPV takes away
The current LNP state government in Queensland was elected on a promise of restoring the Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) system used in the state up until the 2015 election. Under this system, v…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 5, 2026 at 10:44 PM
In today's post, I make the case that neither major party can rely on a consistent self-interested advantage from OPV or CPV, but rather that self-interest will be different in different seats, and over time. #qldpol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Pollsters should not be referring to 1pt differences between polls as "tiny changes". It is not a change in the same way there's no such thing as a 2pt poll lead.
It's hard enough to encourage the media to follow basic reporting practices without those in the industry ignoring them too.
It's hard enough to encourage the media to follow basic reporting practices without those in the industry ignoring them too.
February 4, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Pollsters should not be referring to 1pt differences between polls as "tiny changes". It is not a change in the same way there's no such thing as a 2pt poll lead.
It's hard enough to encourage the media to follow basic reporting practices without those in the industry ignoring them too.
It's hard enough to encourage the media to follow basic reporting practices without those in the industry ignoring them too.
I have published my guide to the upcoming Nepean by-election in Victoria, you can check it out here #springst
Nepean by-election coming soon
A by-election will be held soon in the Victorian state seat of Nepean, covering the Mornington Peninsula to the south-east of Melbourne. Nepean has been held since 2022 by Sam Groth. Groth had anno…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 4, 2026 at 5:20 AM
I have published my guide to the upcoming Nepean by-election in Victoria, you can check it out here #springst
Today's podcast previews this weekend's Japanese general election with Donna Weeks, @psephy.bsky.social
Podcast #161 – Japan election preview
Ben was joined by Donna Weeks, emeritus professor at Musashino University, to discuss this coming weekend’s Japanese general election, where new prime minister Sanae Takaichi will be attempti…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 3, 2026 at 12:04 AM
Today's podcast previews this weekend's Japanese general election with Donna Weeks, @psephy.bsky.social
With seven weeks to go until the South Australian election, I have updated my candidate lists and unlocked the election guide #sapol
South Australian candidates emerge
South Australia will go to the polls in March for their state election. The most recent polls predict an enormous landslide victory for the incumbent Labor government. As we get closer, it was time…
www.tallyroom.com.au
February 1, 2026 at 11:03 PM
With seven weeks to go until the South Australian election, I have updated my candidate lists and unlocked the election guide #sapol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Good to see Fox&Hedgehog are now Australian Polling Council members, joining Pyxis, YouGov, DemosAU and Essential among the usual federal polls that are.
January 31, 2026 at 3:08 AM
Good to see Fox&Hedgehog are now Australian Polling Council members, joining Pyxis, YouGov, DemosAU and Essential among the usual federal polls that are.
Reposted by Ben Raue
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/poll... Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?
Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
January 29, 2026 at 10:54 PM
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/poll... Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?
The podcast is back for 2026. Yesterday I interviewed @georgehasanakos.bsky.social from DemosAU about the surge in support for One Nation, the split in the Coalition, and how pollsters will deal with these challenges #auspol
Podcast #160 – One Nation surges in the polls
Ben was joined by George Hasanakos from pollster DemosAU to discuss the surge in support for One Nation, which has pushed them ahead of the combined Liberal-National vote in a number of polls, as w…
www.tallyroom.com.au
January 28, 2026 at 11:18 PM
The podcast is back for 2026. Yesterday I interviewed @georgehasanakos.bsky.social from DemosAU about the surge in support for One Nation, the split in the Coalition, and how pollsters will deal with these challenges #auspol
I’ve been reading a lot of political history over the break, and the Nationals recent activities reminded me of their predecessors www.tallyroom.com.au/64146
The history of the Nationals and the Liberal leadership
The recent divisions between the Liberal Party and the Nationals, which seem to have culminated in the Nationals ending the coalition this morning, have made me think of the long history of the sma…
www.tallyroom.com.au
January 22, 2026 at 1:37 AM
I’ve been reading a lot of political history over the break, and the Nationals recent activities reminded me of their predecessors www.tallyroom.com.au/64146
The three most beautiful words in cricket: “five penalty runs”
January 7, 2026 at 3:58 AM
The three most beautiful words in cricket: “five penalty runs”
I'm going to be interviewed on Sky News Australia in a minute if anyone is interested.
January 2, 2026 at 5:17 AM
I'm going to be interviewed on Sky News Australia in a minute if anyone is interested.
Reposted by Ben Raue
With Bardot's passing, the only named individuals in Billy Joel's We Didn't Start The Fire that are still alive are Bob Dylan, Chubby Checker, and Bernie Goetz. The last one standing will claim The Prize.
December 28, 2025 at 10:22 AM
With Bardot's passing, the only named individuals in Billy Joel's We Didn't Start The Fire that are still alive are Bob Dylan, Chubby Checker, and Bernie Goetz. The last one standing will claim The Prize.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Interesting piece by @meganmaurice.bsky.social - ngl, I hadn’t clocked that the system was different in the men’s comp!
One of these finals is not like the other
We need to talk about the WBBL finals format
open.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Interesting piece by @meganmaurice.bsky.social - ngl, I hadn’t clocked that the system was different in the men’s comp!
Reposted by Ben Raue
i have said this before but if you are actually interested in influencing people beyond a narrow circle of too-online journalists you will be making direct to camera videos on tiktok, instagram and youtube. if you primarily post on text-based social media then you're just dicking around.
December 15, 2025 at 7:26 PM
i have said this before but if you are actually interested in influencing people beyond a narrow circle of too-online journalists you will be making direct to camera videos on tiktok, instagram and youtube. if you primarily post on text-based social media then you're just dicking around.
There's a queue of people down two flights of stairs to the front door of the building for the Parramatta blood donation centre. They are booking people in for later appointments one by one, so still worth doing.
December 15, 2025 at 2:54 AM
There's a queue of people down two flights of stairs to the front door of the building for the Parramatta blood donation centre. They are booking people in for later appointments one by one, so still worth doing.
Reposted by Ben Raue
Elon's little serfs are quite literally begging journalists to come back because every publicly available source of data shows people have fled the platform and young people won't use it.
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
December 15, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Elon's little serfs are quite literally begging journalists to come back because every publicly available source of data shows people have fled the platform and young people won't use it.
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
If you have a blood donor enrolment number, should that tell you your blood type? I don't know mine.
December 14, 2025 at 10:09 PM
If you have a blood donor enrolment number, should that tell you your blood type? I don't know mine.
Today's blog post is my last one for the year and it examines the question of whether the 2PP (Labor vs Liberal) is meaningful in seats where it is a Liberal vs Independent contests (mostly the teal seats) #auspol
How meaningful is the Labor 2PP in the teal seats?
For the final blog post of 2025, I wanted to look at a question that has come up regularly in the comments, and on psephological websites: how meaningful is the two-party-preferred vote, particular…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 11, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Today's blog post is my last one for the year and it examines the question of whether the 2PP (Labor vs Liberal) is meaningful in seats where it is a Liberal vs Independent contests (mostly the teal seats) #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Finding your tribe: Why Australia’s social media ban gets It wrong: https://benhr.xyz/2025/12/11/finding-your-tribe-why-australias.html
December 11, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Finding your tribe: Why Australia’s social media ban gets It wrong: https://benhr.xyz/2025/12/11/finding-your-tribe-why-australias.html
Reposted by Ben Raue
Keep thinking of what social media would have meant to me as a teen growing up in isolation in the country.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
December 11, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Keep thinking of what social media would have meant to me as a teen growing up in isolation in the country.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Sure, I read more books, but also fled home at 17 to live with my boyfriend... ended up married in my teens.
Would have loved to be a part of an online group of friends for support.
Today I'm looking at some of the facts used to inform the debate around fixed terms.
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
How long do parliamentary terms really last?
There has been a lot of conversation recently about implementing fixed four-year terms for the federal Parliament, with Anthony Albanese indicating support and some reporting that Don Farrell, the …
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 10, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Today I'm looking at some of the facts used to inform the debate around fixed terms.
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
You might hear that the average parliament lasts for 2 years 8 months - that's true over the last 125 years, but doesn't reflect the last 35 years, when parliaments usually run at about their full term. #auspol
Reposted by Ben Raue
Ben's doing some fascinating work on parliament expansion and this one makes a key point. The 1948 expansion was a big moment for the urbanisation of Australian politics, but that's done. Now it's a way to get more compact country seats without malapportionment.
Today's blog post dives into history and looks at how the Coalition has responded to past Labor moves to expand the size of the parliament, why the attitude of the National Party changed between 1948 and 1983, and what that has to do with redistribution rules. #auspol
The Nationals and expanding the parliament
Recent reporting, and my own experience, indicates that the federal Labor government is seriously considering an expansion in the size of the Australian federal parliament, echoing the previous exp…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 10, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Ben's doing some fascinating work on parliament expansion and this one makes a key point. The 1948 expansion was a big moment for the urbanisation of Australian politics, but that's done. Now it's a way to get more compact country seats without malapportionment.