Ben Raue
@benraue.com
The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere.
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/
As for the Senate, Brandis claims the Greens would be the main beneficiaries, but this couldn’t be more wrong. The Greens at the moment are over-represented in the Senate. Expanding to 14 or 16 senators would just solidify their current seats. Most seats would go to Labor, the Coaltion or One Nation
September 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
As for the Senate, Brandis claims the Greens would be the main beneficiaries, but this couldn’t be more wrong. The Greens at the moment are over-represented in the Senate. Expanding to 14 or 16 senators would just solidify their current seats. Most seats would go to Labor, the Coaltion or One Nation
There seems to be a relationship with the proportion of voters moving to a new seat being less when the scale of the redistribution is bigger, but also the last two cycles have seen the most conservative map-drawing. In the blog post I run through a few examples.
September 17, 2025 at 1:05 AM
There seems to be a relationship with the proportion of voters moving to a new seat being less when the scale of the redistribution is bigger, but also the last two cycles have seen the most conservative map-drawing. In the blog post I run through a few examples.
Just added a primary vote map.
September 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Just added a primary vote map.
I've now added a 2CP booth map to my liveblog.
September 13, 2025 at 10:55 AM
I've now added a 2CP booth map to my liveblog.
I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with
@domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol
@domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol
September 12, 2025 at 11:29 AM
I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with
@domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol
@domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol
In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
September 12, 2025 at 5:27 AM
In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
Here's a version with captions.
September 11, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Here's a version with captions.
I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
September 11, 2025 at 5:07 AM
I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911
my kid's soccer club, and two of the clubs they've played against this season.
August 5, 2025 at 4:15 AM
my kid's soccer club, and two of the clubs they've played against this season.
George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes.
Final seat count:
-14 Liberal
-10 Labor
-5 Greens
-1 Shooters
-5 Independents
Final seat count:
-14 Liberal
-10 Labor
-5 Greens
-1 Shooters
-5 Independents
August 2, 2025 at 2:49 AM
George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes.
Final seat count:
-14 Liberal
-10 Labor
-5 Greens
-1 Shooters
-5 Independents
Final seat count:
-14 Liberal
-10 Labor
-5 Greens
-1 Shooters
-5 Independents
Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.
August 1, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.
Is it possible that Labor, after polling a record low vote and winning barely a quarter of seats, could form government? Or could they have no choice but to form government? Ben discussed this topic with @cmonnox.bsky.social and @kevinbonham.bsky.social last week on the podcast #politas #tasvotes
July 28, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Is it possible that Labor, after polling a record low vote and winning barely a quarter of seats, could form government? Or could they have no choice but to form government? Ben discussed this topic with @cmonnox.bsky.social and @kevinbonham.bsky.social last week on the podcast #politas #tasvotes
Last Friday (day before the election) I did an interview with ABC Radio Hobart about Votes at 16. Take a listen.
Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.
Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.
July 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Last Friday (day before the election) I did an interview with ABC Radio Hobart about Votes at 16. Take a listen.
Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.
Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.
On this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, Ben discussed the inclusion of former federal MPs and other big names who aren't sitting state MPs on the major party tickets in the Tasmanian election, and how it will likely push out some incumbent MPs. #tasvotes www.tallyroom.com.au/60946
July 23, 2025 at 11:44 PM
On this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, Ben discussed the inclusion of former federal MPs and other big names who aren't sitting state MPs on the major party tickets in the Tasmanian election, and how it will likely push out some incumbent MPs. #tasvotes www.tallyroom.com.au/60946
I've started putting up short videos from my podcasts on Instagram, here's the latest one with @kevinbonham.bsky.social
Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.
Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.
July 23, 2025 at 11:47 AM
I've started putting up short videos from my podcasts on Instagram, here's the latest one with @kevinbonham.bsky.social
Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.
Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.
thankfully not as big as the 'tablecloth' ballot paper for 1999. antonygreen.com.au/wa-legislati...
July 13, 2025 at 1:26 PM
thankfully not as big as the 'tablecloth' ballot paper for 1999. antonygreen.com.au/wa-legislati...
you don't need to imagine it, we have ballot papers like that for upper house PR elections in Australia.
NSW Legislative Council elects 21 members at a time and due to a constitutional quirk every party needs to run 15 candidates to get full ballot access. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
NSW Legislative Council elects 21 members at a time and due to a constitutional quirk every party needs to run 15 candidates to get full ballot access. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
July 13, 2025 at 1:25 PM
you don't need to imagine it, we have ballot papers like that for upper house PR elections in Australia.
NSW Legislative Council elects 21 members at a time and due to a constitutional quirk every party needs to run 15 candidates to get full ballot access. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
NSW Legislative Council elects 21 members at a time and due to a constitutional quirk every party needs to run 15 candidates to get full ballot access. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
The Office of Local Government makes this claim with absolutely no evidence. Countbacks are very stable, there is not one case where a grouped councillor wasn't replaced by a member of the same group (when there was one eligible). And if there was a change, it would reflect voters' preferences.
July 11, 2025 at 7:15 AM
The Office of Local Government makes this claim with absolutely no evidence. Countbacks are very stable, there is not one case where a grouped councillor wasn't replaced by a member of the same group (when there was one eligible). And if there was a change, it would reflect voters' preferences.
This change wasn't actually mentioned in the introduction to the explanatory memorandum, even though it's quite a large part of the bill. www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bill/files/1...
July 5, 2025 at 6:55 AM
This change wasn't actually mentioned in the introduction to the explanatory memorandum, even though it's quite a large part of the bill. www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bill/files/1...
When you break this trend down by electorate, you can see that past spikes were usually isolated to 1-2 electorates. Indeed the 2021 vote for independents (mostly Johnston and Hickey) in Clark is a record not yet broken. But in 2024 the others vote spiked everywhere.
July 3, 2025 at 3:10 AM
When you break this trend down by electorate, you can see that past spikes were usually isolated to 1-2 electorates. Indeed the 2021 vote for independents (mostly Johnston and Hickey) in Clark is a record not yet broken. But in 2024 the others vote spiked everywhere.
There were past spikes in the others vote, with independents putting up serious challenges in 1982 and 1996. But nothing like the 20% polled in 2024.
July 3, 2025 at 3:10 AM
There were past spikes in the others vote, with independents putting up serious challenges in 1982 and 1996. But nothing like the 20% polled in 2024.
The total vote for the major parties was fairly consistent from 1989-2021, after declining through the 1980s. But it dropped to a new low in 2024.
This flat pattern can be explained by the Tasmanian Greens growing in support much earlier than on the mainland.
This flat pattern can be explained by the Tasmanian Greens growing in support much earlier than on the mainland.
July 3, 2025 at 3:10 AM
The total vote for the major parties was fairly consistent from 1989-2021, after declining through the 1980s. But it dropped to a new low in 2024.
This flat pattern can be explained by the Tasmanian Greens growing in support much earlier than on the mainland.
This flat pattern can be explained by the Tasmanian Greens growing in support much earlier than on the mainland.
The post also includes freshly-made charts showing three of the main 3CP combinations, plotting out the relative 3CP between Labor, the Coalition and either GRN/IND/ON on a triangular plot.
June 27, 2025 at 2:04 AM
The post also includes freshly-made charts showing three of the main 3CP combinations, plotting out the relative 3CP between Labor, the Coalition and either GRN/IND/ON on a triangular plot.
Finally I've calculated the proportion of each party's 2PP that came from someone else. The Labor number has been higher since the 1980s, but both numbers have gone up. In 2025, the Labor figure actually stayed steady, but the Coalition proportion hit a new high, with 29% of votes coming from others
June 25, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Finally I've calculated the proportion of each party's 2PP that came from someone else. The Labor number has been higher since the 1980s, but both numbers have gone up. In 2025, the Labor figure actually stayed steady, but the Coalition proportion hit a new high, with 29% of votes coming from others