Anton Strezhnev
@astrezh.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, UW-Madison Political Science. http://www.antonstrezhnev.com
Pinned
Anton Strezhnev
@astrezh.bsky.social
· Nov 25
Put together a quick starter pack for political methodologists (broadly defined) who have made their way over to BlueSky. If I've missed folks, please let me know!
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
there is so much Beta in (econometrics) books
November 11, 2025 at 2:15 AM
there is so much Beta in (econometrics) books
What the hell is going on here?
November 7, 2025 at 5:15 PM
What the hell is going on here?
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
November 6, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Direct File is survived by its code, lovingly preserved on GitHub for potential revival whenever the leaders of the executive branch are no longer bent on looting the country.
November 4, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Direct File is survived by its code, lovingly preserved on GitHub for potential revival whenever the leaders of the executive branch are no longer bent on looting the country.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
no pods, no casters.
October 31, 2025 at 7:18 PM
no pods, no casters.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
The many monarchs of Europe, the slaver's Confederacy, the Kaiser, the Nazis, the Italian fascists, Imperial Japan and many more all assumed that because liberals value peace and human life, that they were weak and feckless and easily beaten.
Go look for them now.
Go look for them now.
I think fundamentally the problem with post liberal thinkers is that they seem to assume that vanquishing liberalism results in their enemies being converted or defeated and not becoming radicalized into enemies who no longer extend the mercies they once did.
October 31, 2025 at 12:27 AM
The many monarchs of Europe, the slaver's Confederacy, the Kaiser, the Nazis, the Italian fascists, Imperial Japan and many more all assumed that because liberals value peace and human life, that they were weak and feckless and easily beaten.
Go look for them now.
Go look for them now.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
You’ve heard that the Economist accidentally published misinformation about the prevalence of Holocaust denial, but did you know the underlying methodological problem is super common and decades-old?
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
October 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM
You’ve heard that the Economist accidentally published misinformation about the prevalence of Holocaust denial, but did you know the underlying methodological problem is super common and decades-old?
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
The American moral economy is so bizarre, especially on the pop-left, where you have this rhetorical and aesthetic framework lifted from 19th century proletarian socialism deployed in favor of a sort of anti-free markets consumerism that is totally individualized.
The responses this post is getting, combined with the animating grievances of large swathes of politics, has convinced me we need a kind of society wide PSA about how Buying Things Is Optional.
You don’t think video games should cost $100? Don’t buy the videogame. Buying Things Is Optional.
You don’t think video games should cost $100? Don’t buy the videogame. Buying Things Is Optional.
AAA video games should cost $100 on launch. this would still be extremely cheap for the amount of time and enjoyment you get out of them! But an audience of whiny babies has kept them literally at the same price for *two decades* despite both general inflation *and* sector-specific costs rising
October 23, 2025 at 8:03 PM
The American moral economy is so bizarre, especially on the pop-left, where you have this rhetorical and aesthetic framework lifted from 19th century proletarian socialism deployed in favor of a sort of anti-free markets consumerism that is totally individualized.
“The Flight 93 Election”
October 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
“The Flight 93 Election”
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
What if we did a single run and declared victory
October 23, 2025 at 2:28 AM
What if we did a single run and declared victory
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Keep an eye on this space. I have an essay coming out next week that tackles this topic. One thing this story doesn't explicitly acknowledge is that with Trump "lobbying" is now on an individual firm basis, instead of industry wide. That seems significant, too. www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
‘He’s micro-managing phenomenally’: How Trump grabbed all the levers in Washington
The president's one-man-show approach to policy has sidelined Congress, agencies — and a whole K Street culture.
www.politico.com
October 22, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Keep an eye on this space. I have an essay coming out next week that tackles this topic. One thing this story doesn't explicitly acknowledge is that with Trump "lobbying" is now on an individual firm basis, instead of industry wide. That seems significant, too. www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
So Instagram has decided all the money is in Reels so they'll slowly deprioritize the photos.
Another data point for "algorithmic short form video is the end stage of trying to occupy your eyeballs" @chrislhayes.bsky.social
Another data point for "algorithmic short form video is the end stage of trying to occupy your eyeballs" @chrislhayes.bsky.social
October 18, 2025 at 2:42 AM
So Instagram has decided all the money is in Reels so they'll slowly deprioritize the photos.
Another data point for "algorithmic short form video is the end stage of trying to occupy your eyeballs" @chrislhayes.bsky.social
Another data point for "algorithmic short form video is the end stage of trying to occupy your eyeballs" @chrislhayes.bsky.social
Interesting paper, but identifying on Genshin Impact seems a bit weird for generalizing to “social media”-type apps. Like, you could probably get the same effects from World of Warcraft during the MMO boom.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: The Impact of Mobile App Usage on Academic and Labor Market Outcomes,” by Barwick, Chen, Fu, and Li: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: The Impact of Mobile App Usage on Academic and Labor Market Outcomes*
Abstract. Concerns about excessive mobile phone use among youth are mounting. We present estimates of both behavioral and contextual peer effects, along wi
doi.org
October 17, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Interesting paper, but identifying on Genshin Impact seems a bit weird for generalizing to “social media”-type apps. Like, you could probably get the same effects from World of Warcraft during the MMO boom.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Spike Jonze: In my movie I invented the parasocial relationship with an AI as a cautionary tale
Tech Company: At long last, we have created the Parasocial Relationship AI from the classic sci-fi movie Don't Create The Parasocial Relationship AI
Tech Company: At long last, we have created the Parasocial Relationship AI from the classic sci-fi movie Don't Create The Parasocial Relationship AI
October 16, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Spike Jonze: In my movie I invented the parasocial relationship with an AI as a cautionary tale
Tech Company: At long last, we have created the Parasocial Relationship AI from the classic sci-fi movie Don't Create The Parasocial Relationship AI
Tech Company: At long last, we have created the Parasocial Relationship AI from the classic sci-fi movie Don't Create The Parasocial Relationship AI
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Gambetta & Origgi on the LL Game, in which agents prefer to deliver and receive (!) low quality.
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
October 16, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Gambetta & Origgi on the LL Game, in which agents prefer to deliver and receive (!) low quality.
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
... really? This is what we're up against? People who ignore fucking survey weights?
Like, obviously people very much do bad research of this kind, and they will continue to do so, but the fact that the Yglesias' and the Kleins of this world don't do the right thing and reject this out of hand...
Like, obviously people very much do bad research of this kind, and they will continue to do so, but the fact that the Yglesias' and the Kleins of this world don't do the right thing and reject this out of hand...
6. Data scientist Jacob Eliason was the first to spot it: Kaufmann had run his analysis using the raw survey responses rather than applying the weighting provided by FIRE. Without weighting, the data dramatically misrepresented the population—and created the illusion of a drop where none existed.
Jacob Eliason - Methodological issues in Kaufmann’s analysis of FIRE gender identity data
Ignore survey weights at your peril
jacobeliason.com
October 16, 2025 at 12:15 AM
... really? This is what we're up against? People who ignore fucking survey weights?
Like, obviously people very much do bad research of this kind, and they will continue to do so, but the fact that the Yglesias' and the Kleins of this world don't do the right thing and reject this out of hand...
Like, obviously people very much do bad research of this kind, and they will continue to do so, but the fact that the Yglesias' and the Kleins of this world don't do the right thing and reject this out of hand...
Oh so it runs Eve Online?
LMAOOO WHAT DO YOU MEAN THE NEW XBOX HANDHELD COMES WITH MICROSOFT TEAMS AND ONEDRIVE INSTALLED??? this is the fucking goofiest company in games
October 16, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Oh so it runs Eve Online?
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
October 14, 2025 at 11:11 PM
I think there’s a comfort in blaming our current politics on social media.
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
When I think a boring but more accurate story is that plutocratic tech elites and right-wingers *made a lot of choices*.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
Prepping a lecture on dynamic Bayesian models and wanted to give the students some real world applications - Hats off to fiftyplusone.news for having such a good and clear methodology page! fiftyplusone.news/methodology
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
fiftyplusone.news
October 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Prepping a lecture on dynamic Bayesian models and wanted to give the students some real world applications - Hats off to fiftyplusone.news for having such a good and clear methodology page! fiftyplusone.news/methodology
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
since there's reports on social media of money hitting accounts worth reiterating that this is illegal and unconstitutional as shit, it's not a close question, and while I don't expect anyone on H/SASC or H/SAC will do anything, anyone performing this 'reprogramming' should face criminal penalties
It's also worth reiterating that absent this reprogramming authority being written into law it would be not just illegal but flatly unconstitutional for DoD to expend money in any fashion not explicitly specified (by both type/use and quantity) by Congress in an appropriations bill
Since we're getting a crash course in DoD reprogramming authority, CRS has a good report on it linked below. Some important points:
Congress gives DoD reprogramming authority because when you're dealing with a trillion dollars, some stuff is probably going to need to be changed over 12 months
Congress gives DoD reprogramming authority because when you're dealing with a trillion dollars, some stuff is probably going to need to be changed over 12 months
October 14, 2025 at 3:10 AM
since there's reports on social media of money hitting accounts worth reiterating that this is illegal and unconstitutional as shit, it's not a close question, and while I don't expect anyone on H/SASC or H/SAC will do anything, anyone performing this 'reprogramming' should face criminal penalties
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Everybody’s got their own definition of fun. This is mine.
October 12, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Everybody’s got their own definition of fun. This is mine.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
should I start a bsky book club? one book a month, say, and then we do a big megathread to discuss it.
the more people talk about it, the less confident i feel that i know how to read. where do i learn to read? ugh lol
October 9, 2025 at 7:49 PM
should I start a bsky book club? one book a month, say, and then we do a big megathread to discuss it.
Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
If he gets a Nobel then I’m going to start pointing out that the Econ prize is not a real Nobel.
Trump’s desire for a Nobel Peace Prize has shaken up global diplomacy, as allies try to curry favor.
It may have even helped spur this week’s Hamas-Israel deal, one former Israeli negotiator said — a bid to help Trump cinch the Nobel before tomorrow’s announcement.
From @mbirnbaum.bsky.social + me
It may have even helped spur this week’s Hamas-Israel deal, one former Israeli negotiator said — a bid to help Trump cinch the Nobel before tomorrow’s announcement.
From @mbirnbaum.bsky.social + me
Trump wants a Nobel Prize. He’ll learn Friday if his campaign paid off.
President Donald Trump’s long quest for a Nobel Peace Prize has sparked an unusual global scramble.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 9, 2025 at 11:54 AM
If he gets a Nobel then I’m going to start pointing out that the Econ prize is not a real Nobel.