Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
@alexvhj.bsky.social
Democratic pollster. Survey methods and data at GSG. PoliSci PhD. Also loves dogs, cats, soccer, d&d
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
look as someone who can be incapacitated for weeks by the fear that I put the wrong number of exclamation points into an email this has been a fascinating glimpse into a some brains that work extremely! differently! from! mine!
November 13, 2025 at 5:28 PM
look as someone who can be incapacitated for weeks by the fear that I put the wrong number of exclamation points into an email this has been a fascinating glimpse into a some brains that work extremely! differently! from! mine!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
4TH STRAIGHT PLAYOFF SELLOUT 😤
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
November 12, 2025 at 2:34 PM
4TH STRAIGHT PLAYOFF SELLOUT 😤
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Thank you Spirit fam 💛 we can’t wait to see you this Saturday!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
New: Women candidates, running on affordability, powered many of Dems’ big wins last night. Aside from the VA and NJ gov races, women made up a large % of those who flipped VA House seats + set a record for women’s representation in that chamber 19thnews.org/2025/11/demo...
Women running on affordability powered Democrats’ night of victories
Democratic women proved effective messengers in an election focused on the rising cost of living and the effects of Trump’s second term.
19thnews.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:32 PM
New: Women candidates, running on affordability, powered many of Dems’ big wins last night. Aside from the VA and NJ gov races, women made up a large % of those who flipped VA House seats + set a record for women’s representation in that chamber 19thnews.org/2025/11/demo...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
“However, when candidates inoculate early and respond directly, they recover those points and sometimes gain additional margin by demonstrating their values and strength,” the memo continued.
November 7, 2025 at 11:30 PM
“However, when candidates inoculate early and respond directly, they recover those points and sometimes gain additional margin by demonstrating their values and strength,” the memo continued.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
The Mayor of New York only makes $260k. I bet there are police that make more than that in NY with overtime.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
November 7, 2025 at 3:42 PM
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
I gotta say, I’m seeing the most Live Laugh Love women I went to all girls high school with in Ohio posting anti-ICE Instagram reels and demanding people pay attention to the threat of fascism
November 6, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I gotta say, I’m seeing the most Live Laugh Love women I went to all girls high school with in Ohio posting anti-ICE Instagram reels and demanding people pay attention to the threat of fascism
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
These two ladies are respectively from the intel and military communities. And those backgrounds set those ladies up to be the no nonsense tough ladies in their races. They were part of the draw. It gives them just a hint of small c conservative creed with certain voters.
November 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
These two ladies are respectively from the intel and military communities. And those backgrounds set those ladies up to be the no nonsense tough ladies in their races. They were part of the draw. It gives them just a hint of small c conservative creed with certain voters.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02
Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why.
"What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."
www.bangordailynews.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, facing a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap, says he won't seek reelection in #ME02
It was a great night for Democrats, and I’m so proud of GSG’s contribution to making it happen!
We are thrilled with last night’s Democratic victories, and proud to serve as the pollster for the gubernatorial campaigns of both @mikiesherrill.bsky.social and @abigailspanberger.com — marking historic wins as the first female Gov in VA and the first Democratic woman Gov in NJ.
Onwards to 2026!
Onwards to 2026!
November 5, 2025 at 7:23 PM
It was a great night for Democrats, and I’m so proud of GSG’s contribution to making it happen!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
November 5, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
this is extremely correct, as a rule, although not in 100% of cases
I feel most serious survey methods people can’t stop disclosing caveats and uncertainties completely unprompted
November 4, 2025 at 1:06 AM
this is extremely correct, as a rule, although not in 100% of cases
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
conspiracies about polling always crack me up because have you ever heard a group of >1 survey methodologists try to come to a consensus on anything
November 4, 2025 at 12:54 AM
conspiracies about polling always crack me up because have you ever heard a group of >1 survey methodologists try to come to a consensus on anything
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Political inexperience in Congress has measurable effects on legislative outcomes. Our research finds that when districts elect political newcomers over career politicians, congressional dysfunction tends to increase.
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
Amateur hour in Congress: How political newcomers fuel gridlock and government shutdowns
The public’s frustration with ‘politics as usual’ has led more political newcomers to win office. But amateurs are more likely to view bipartisanship as a concession, not a tool for advancing policy.
theconversation.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Political inexperience in Congress has measurable effects on legislative outcomes. Our research finds that when districts elect political newcomers over career politicians, congressional dysfunction tends to increase.
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
New explainer of our PNAS study:
theconversation.com/amateur-hour...
I used to teach students that their literature reviews ought to try to characterize other arguments in ways that would be recognized by those authors. Most of the time on here, when I see someone describe what political strategists or consultants think, I don’t think it meets that bar.
November 2, 2025 at 9:43 PM
I used to teach students that their literature reviews ought to try to characterize other arguments in ways that would be recognized by those authors. Most of the time on here, when I see someone describe what political strategists or consultants think, I don’t think it meets that bar.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
People on here will post anything. 'Baseball games have 9 innings.' No they don’t. That isn’t true.
November 2, 2025 at 4:10 AM
People on here will post anything. 'Baseball games have 9 innings.' No they don’t. That isn’t true.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton:
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
The Effects of Voting by Mail on Correct Voting - Political Behavior
The share of Americans voting by mail surged in 2020. For those casting a mail-in ballot, their voting experience was different from those who voted in-person. When voting by mail, people can make the...
link.springer.com
August 6, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton:
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
F. Scott Fitzgerald: In my book I invented Gatsby lifestyle as a cautionary tale
The president: At long last, we have created the Gatsby lifestyle from the classic novel The Great Gatsby
The president: At long last, we have created the Gatsby lifestyle from the classic novel The Great Gatsby
November 1, 2025 at 4:48 AM
F. Scott Fitzgerald: In my book I invented Gatsby lifestyle as a cautionary tale
The president: At long last, we have created the Gatsby lifestyle from the classic novel The Great Gatsby
The president: At long last, we have created the Gatsby lifestyle from the classic novel The Great Gatsby
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Halloween logicals, still the best 10/31 venn
October 31, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Halloween logicals, still the best 10/31 venn
Congratulations to Ryan and to DfP!
I’m deeply honored to lead Data for Progress into our next chapter.
The point of our research is not to determine what our values should be, but how to fight for our values most effectively.
Excited to keep working with our amazing, dedicated team to sharpen our strategy.
The point of our research is not to determine what our values should be, but how to fight for our values most effectively.
Excited to keep working with our amazing, dedicated team to sharpen our strategy.
We are thrilled to announce that @rodonnell.bsky.social has been named the next executive director of Data for Progress!
Ryan is an expert in survey methodology with a long history in progressive and union politics — he has worked with DFP since 2019 to shape our electoral polling.
Ryan is an expert in survey methodology with a long history in progressive and union politics — he has worked with DFP since 2019 to shape our electoral polling.
November 1, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Congratulations to Ryan and to DfP!
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
October 31, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The analysis you've been waiting for: "Do you remember who was actually president when that happened?" Turns out the answer is often...no.
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
1 in 3 forgot Trump was in office on Jan. 6.
HALF didn't say Biden was President during the Afghanistan withdrawal!
yougovamerica.substack.com/p/how-many-a...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
motion to use this as a crosstab more frequently
article: apnews.com/article/dayl...
data: apnorc.org/projects/few...
article: apnews.com/article/dayl...
data: apnorc.org/projects/few...
October 31, 2025 at 2:09 PM
motion to use this as a crosstab more frequently
article: apnews.com/article/dayl...
data: apnorc.org/projects/few...
article: apnews.com/article/dayl...
data: apnorc.org/projects/few...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Smart thread on the challenges of asking (and reporting on) knowledge questions in a way that's respectful of respondents:
"It's not right to call people out of nowhere, ask for their time, quiz them, and then chastise them or make fun of them for not knowing the answers."
He wasn't wrong.
Often reporters lost interest in asking these questions if they couldn't write scathing articles mocking respondent ignorance.
He wasn't wrong.
Often reporters lost interest in asking these questions if they couldn't write scathing articles mocking respondent ignorance.
October 30, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Smart thread on the challenges of asking (and reporting on) knowledge questions in a way that's respectful of respondents:
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Nearly 10 years of manly politics reporting, squished into one edifying, delicious post. Mail me my Pulitzer. daniellekurtzleben.substack.com/p/a-masculin...
A Masculinity in Politics Primer
Everything you need to know about the biggest force in politics you're ignoring
daniellekurtzleben.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Nearly 10 years of manly politics reporting, squished into one edifying, delicious post. Mail me my Pulitzer. daniellekurtzleben.substack.com/p/a-masculin...
Reposted by Alex Von Hagen-Jamar
Hi! I’m the Polling Director at ABC News now! My first story is here, many more TK!
Americans largely oppose Trump tearing down White House East Wing to make way for his ballroom: Poll
The poll found 45% of respondents "strongly" oppose the East Wing demolition.
abcnews.go.com
October 30, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Hi! I’m the Polling Director at ABC News now! My first story is here, many more TK!