Carlos Odio
@carlosodio.bsky.social
Co-founder, Equis Research. Miamian living in New Jersey. Not a pollster I just poll a lot.
Reposted by Carlos Odio
On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...
Republicans may have a Latino problem (again)
What New Jersey can teach the parties about Latino voters.
www.vox.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:31 PM
On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...
In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.
November 5, 2025 at 7:22 PM
In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.
Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.
November 5, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
November 5, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers?
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
November 4, 2025 at 8:48 PM
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers?
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026.
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
July 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy | Equis Research
This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 1,614 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from July 7 to 17, 2025. This poll has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.
www.weareequis.us
July 31, 2025 at 5:52 PM
New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026.
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
Memo & toplines here:
www.weareequis.us/research/202...
May 16, 2025 at 4:14 PM
New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.
🚨 SCOOP: Trump’s Already Losing the Latino Voters He Won Over in 2024
www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-... via @thebulwark.com
www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-... via @thebulwark.com
Exclusive: Trump’s Losing the Latino Voters He Won in ’24
New poll shows real cracks in the president’s backing—and opportunities for Democrats.
www.thebulwark.com
May 16, 2025 at 4:13 PM
New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.
Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024
In WI special, Crawford outperformed Harris more in majority Hispanic precincts than elsewhere in MKE. But turnout in those areas was also lower. Another sign that Trump’s strength seems to lie with Latinos who don’t who up in these kinds of elections?
April 2, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024
Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
January 28, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly.
Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.
New Cambridge Element 'Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Simon Bornschier, @lhaffert.bsky.social, @siljahausermann.bsky.social, Marco Steenberge & @dpzollinger.bsky.social out now!
Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o
#cambridgeelements #politics
Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o
#cambridgeelements #politics
December 12, 2024 at 2:27 PM
Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.
The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig).
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Great piece from Rogé Karma on how Dems misread Latino opinion on immigration, and ended up shifting far to the left of where most voters were www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
The theory shows up clear as day in the data 👇
The theory shows up clear as day in the data 👇
December 11, 2024 at 1:33 PM
The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig).
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps:
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
December 6, 2024 at 12:56 PM
Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps:
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things.
No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally
Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
Reposted by Carlos Odio
@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Path Forward: Rebuilding Latino Support | The Latino Vote Episode 64 - Featuring Carlos Odio
Podcast Episode · The Latino Vote · 11/15/2024 · 53m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2024 at 6:31 PM
@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Reposted by Carlos Odio
Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
November 26, 2024 at 2:52 PM
Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.
November 26, 2024 at 6:14 PM
This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
November 26, 2024 at 2:15 PM
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Great @propublica.org piece
t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Update: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot.
Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped.
(And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)
Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped.
(And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)
November 22, 2024 at 10:00 PM
Update: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot.
Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped.
(And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)
Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped.
(And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)
Reposted by Carlos Odio
Nice analysis here of the Latino vote in 2024 from @carlosodio.bsky.social www.weareequis.us/research/pre...
A Preliminary Look at the 2024 Latino Vote | Equis Research
www.weareequis.us
November 21, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Nice analysis here of the Latino vote in 2024 from @carlosodio.bsky.social www.weareequis.us/research/pre...
Who wants some precinct charts? Here's a partial roundup of precinct-level analysis by the brilliant Equis duo of @juan-machado.bsky.social & Javier Rodriguez.
bsky.app
November 21, 2024 at 2:41 PM
Who wants some precinct charts? Here's a partial roundup of precinct-level analysis by the brilliant Equis duo of @juan-machado.bsky.social & Javier Rodriguez.
“You’re going to have to do both.”
November 20, 2024 at 12:49 PM
“You’re going to have to do both.”
Early look at cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV), which allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot: overall, 6% of Trump voters went for Rosen, to 4% who skipped the race.
The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
November 19, 2024 at 2:07 PM
Early look at cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV), which allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot: overall, 6% of Trump voters went for Rosen, to 4% who skipped the race.
The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
Clark County, NV...at long last
Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row.
Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.
Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row.
Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.
November 18, 2024 at 5:18 PM
Clark County, NV...at long last
Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row.
Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.
Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row.
Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.