@aberistcambe.bsky.social
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Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
December 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...
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And here is part 2 where we discuss where things stand now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Phillips O’Brien Ukraine 2
A recording from Phillips P. OBrien and Timothy Snyder's live video
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:15 PM
And here is part 2 where we discuss where things stand now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
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Yes, it doesn’t matter if you have cards if you don’t know how to play.
time.com/7341064/trum...
time.com/7341064/trum...
Why Trump Should Call Putin’s Bluff Now
Russia's "economy is disintegrating, and their military prowess is inferior to that of Ukraine."
time.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Yes, it doesn’t matter if you have cards if you don’t know how to play.
time.com/7341064/trum...
time.com/7341064/trum...
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Everything we can see tells us that Putin is never going to admit that the West is not, in fact, an existential threat to Russia, because he personally depends on the idea. And of all the parts of the West that are seen as an existential threat to Russia, the UK is hated most of all.
December 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Everything we can see tells us that Putin is never going to admit that the West is not, in fact, an existential threat to Russia, because he personally depends on the idea. And of all the parts of the West that are seen as an existential threat to Russia, the UK is hated most of all.
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The need to destroy the Western "existential threat" to Russia is one of the key ideological pillars justifying Putin's domestic repression, the distortion of the economy, and the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. Putin's power now depends on the idea of war with the West.
December 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
The need to destroy the Western "existential threat" to Russia is one of the key ideological pillars justifying Putin's domestic repression, the distortion of the economy, and the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. Putin's power now depends on the idea of war with the West.
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It proves many things:
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
December 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
It proves many things:
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically.
Russian energy was always unreliable.
Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around.
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Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that.
December 17, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that.
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Confiscating Russian money? A declaration of war. Providing helmets to Kyiv? A declaration of war. Giving tanks to Ukraine? Definitely a declaration of war. Not buying Russian gas? Believe it or not, a declaration of war. One more mean tweet about Putin and all of us will die
December 18, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Confiscating Russian money? A declaration of war. Providing helmets to Kyiv? A declaration of war. Giving tanks to Ukraine? Definitely a declaration of war. Not buying Russian gas? Believe it or not, a declaration of war. One more mean tweet about Putin and all of us will die
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D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
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One would think that by now, my points are kind of obvious and yet here we are: 10 points the Europeans need to take into account when asking for a seat at the table on #Ukraine:
ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
No cash, no bullets, no say: A 10-point memo for Europe on Ukraine
Without sufficient money and weapons, Europeans will be unable to convert their talking points into a sustainable peace.
ecfr.eu
December 5, 2025 at 9:51 AM
One would think that by now, my points are kind of obvious and yet here we are: 10 points the Europeans need to take into account when asking for a seat at the table on #Ukraine:
ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
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They just don't want anyone traveling to the US for any reason at all
It's not just social media. Looks like visitors to the US from Europe and other countries that are part of the visa waiver program will have to submit an enormous amount of data about themselves and their families, including DNA, if proposed new rules are accepted
December 12, 2025 at 5:48 PM
They just don't want anyone traveling to the US for any reason at all
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"The Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Danish Parliament, Rasmus Jarlov, has publicly called on Europe to take decisive steps to enhance its own defence capabilities, specifically by considering the acquisition of its own nuclear weapons"
defence24.com/defence-poli...
defence24.com/defence-poli...
Nuclear weapons for Nordic countries
Europe is entering a decisive moment: relying solely on the American nuclear umbrella no longer appears credible, yet building its own deterrent may be the only way to keep Russia in check. The debate...
defence24.com
December 13, 2025 at 6:57 PM
"The Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Danish Parliament, Rasmus Jarlov, has publicly called on Europe to take decisive steps to enhance its own defence capabilities, specifically by considering the acquisition of its own nuclear weapons"
defence24.com/defence-poli...
defence24.com/defence-poli...
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When Czech President Petr Pavel announced early 2024 that he will organize 1.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine many people were in doubt if this would materialize. Up to this day Czechia successfully organized 1.8 million shells. Well done!
December 13, 2025 at 7:09 PM
When Czech President Petr Pavel announced early 2024 that he will organize 1.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine many people were in doubt if this would materialize. Up to this day Czechia successfully organized 1.8 million shells. Well done!
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NEW: Russia is now demanding that Finland [and Sweden] leave NATO.
Russian FM Lavrov announced that the NATO arrangements demanded by Vladimir Putin in December 2021 are still in place and Europe's "last chance." Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finnish FM Valtonen on Thu.
Russian FM Lavrov announced that the NATO arrangements demanded by Vladimir Putin in December 2021 are still in place and Europe's "last chance." Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finnish FM Valtonen on Thu.
December 13, 2025 at 7:20 PM
NEW: Russia is now demanding that Finland [and Sweden] leave NATO.
Russian FM Lavrov announced that the NATO arrangements demanded by Vladimir Putin in December 2021 are still in place and Europe's "last chance." Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finnish FM Valtonen on Thu.
Russian FM Lavrov announced that the NATO arrangements demanded by Vladimir Putin in December 2021 are still in place and Europe's "last chance." Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finnish FM Valtonen on Thu.
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Can we revive the idea of a European Security Council, 1st presented by President Macron and former Chancellor Merkel in 2017-2019? For:
-European response in the case of military aggression
-European Defence Union
-🇺🇦mil capabilities integration
-defragmentation of EU defence industry
-European response in the case of military aggression
-European Defence Union
-🇺🇦mil capabilities integration
-defragmentation of EU defence industry
December 13, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Can we revive the idea of a European Security Council, 1st presented by President Macron and former Chancellor Merkel in 2017-2019? For:
-European response in the case of military aggression
-European Defence Union
-🇺🇦mil capabilities integration
-defragmentation of EU defence industry
-European response in the case of military aggression
-European Defence Union
-🇺🇦mil capabilities integration
-defragmentation of EU defence industry
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🔥 New economic reports show a 6-8% drop in GDP, but the real threat is a world where autocracies thrive. The UK must choose: stand with Europe or face a dangerous future.
📢 Find out why this decision matters. Paul Browne reports
eastangliabylines.co.uk/politics/sta...
📢 Find out why this decision matters. Paul Browne reports
eastangliabylines.co.uk/politics/sta...
Standing with our European allies against autocracy and division
What do we feel about relations with Europe now? Visitors to Cambridge’s Mill Road Winter Fair were asked and were almost unanimous
eastangliabylines.co.uk
December 12, 2025 at 4:02 PM
🔥 New economic reports show a 6-8% drop in GDP, but the real threat is a world where autocracies thrive. The UK must choose: stand with Europe or face a dangerous future.
📢 Find out why this decision matters. Paul Browne reports
eastangliabylines.co.uk/politics/sta...
📢 Find out why this decision matters. Paul Browne reports
eastangliabylines.co.uk/politics/sta...
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"Ukraine will clash with Russia on irreconcilable terms. As long as Russism exists, it will never give up its ambitions."
1995. The prophetic words of the president of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Dzhokhar Dudayev. One year later, he would be assassinated by Russia.
1995. The prophetic words of the president of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Dzhokhar Dudayev. One year later, he would be assassinated by Russia.
December 13, 2025 at 6:28 PM
"Ukraine will clash with Russia on irreconcilable terms. As long as Russism exists, it will never give up its ambitions."
1995. The prophetic words of the president of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Dzhokhar Dudayev. One year later, he would be assassinated by Russia.
1995. The prophetic words of the president of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Dzhokhar Dudayev. One year later, he would be assassinated by Russia.
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Our enemies have weaknesses though. We still have supporters in the U.S. and the Trump government is too incompetent to act as anything else than a sidekick to Russia. Russia is close to economic disaster. China has a brewing realestate and banking crisis. Iran has a population eager for freedom.
This is the message that European leaders must share with their citizens. The situation for our dear Europe is serious and dire. We must prepare for war, and the best way to do so is to speed up our arms industries and send as many guns as we can to Ukraine. No use for them in our storages.
December 13, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Our enemies have weaknesses though. We still have supporters in the U.S. and the Trump government is too incompetent to act as anything else than a sidekick to Russia. Russia is close to economic disaster. China has a brewing realestate and banking crisis. Iran has a population eager for freedom.
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EU Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas:
"The EU just decided to indefinitely immobilize Russian assets. This ensures that up to €210 billion in Russian funds stay on EU soil, unless Russia fully pays reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has caused.
"The EU just decided to indefinitely immobilize Russian assets. This ensures that up to €210 billion in Russian funds stay on EU soil, unless Russia fully pays reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has caused.
December 12, 2025 at 8:50 PM
EU Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas:
"The EU just decided to indefinitely immobilize Russian assets. This ensures that up to €210 billion in Russian funds stay on EU soil, unless Russia fully pays reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has caused.
"The EU just decided to indefinitely immobilize Russian assets. This ensures that up to €210 billion in Russian funds stay on EU soil, unless Russia fully pays reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has caused.
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Europe is already in a hybrid war, and its peacetime mindset is leaving it exposed to Russian attacks.
Europe Is Already at War: A Peacetime Mindset Leaves It Vulnerable to Russian Hybrid Attacks | Opinion
Europe is already at war, say ex-NATO officials. Russia’s hybrid attacks are coordinated, growing, and testing the EU and NATO resolve.
united24media.com
December 11, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Europe is already in a hybrid war, and its peacetime mindset is leaving it exposed to Russian attacks.
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The House approved a $900B defense policy bill that would give U.S. troops a raise and codify much of Trump’s national security agenda. It also seeks to curb his pullback from Europe and mandate more Pentagon consultation with Congress.
Next stop - Senate.
Next stop - Senate.
December 11, 2025 at 12:22 AM
The House approved a $900B defense policy bill that would give U.S. troops a raise and codify much of Trump’s national security agenda. It also seeks to curb his pullback from Europe and mandate more Pentagon consultation with Congress.
Next stop - Senate.
Next stop - Senate.
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Good prime @theguardian.com on European reactions to the US National Security Strategy, including comments from @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @mijrahman.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and me:
European Council president warns US not to interfere in Europe’s affairs
The new US national security strategy codifies a seismic shift in transatlantic relations, say experts
www.theguardian.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Good prime @theguardian.com on European reactions to the US National Security Strategy, including comments from @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @mijrahman.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and me:
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From a European perspective, this vote and today's earlier admission by Kemi Badenoch that Brexit cause economic harm to the UK are signs that the UK debate on its relationship to the EU might be on the verge of some movement.
But it does not seem like the moment for real movement is there.
But it does not seem like the moment for real movement is there.
December 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM
From a European perspective, this vote and today's earlier admission by Kemi Badenoch that Brexit cause economic harm to the UK are signs that the UK debate on its relationship to the EU might be on the verge of some movement.
But it does not seem like the moment for real movement is there.
But it does not seem like the moment for real movement is there.
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BREAKING: The Lib Dems 10-minute rule bill to rejoin the customs union has just passed!
After a 100-100 tie the deputy speaker followed convention and cast the deciding vote in favour.
It’s unlikely to get government time so probably won't progress - but indicates strength of feeling on this issue
After a 100-100 tie the deputy speaker followed convention and cast the deciding vote in favour.
It’s unlikely to get government time so probably won't progress - but indicates strength of feeling on this issue
December 9, 2025 at 4:33 PM
BREAKING: The Lib Dems 10-minute rule bill to rejoin the customs union has just passed!
After a 100-100 tie the deputy speaker followed convention and cast the deciding vote in favour.
It’s unlikely to get government time so probably won't progress - but indicates strength of feeling on this issue
After a 100-100 tie the deputy speaker followed convention and cast the deciding vote in favour.
It’s unlikely to get government time so probably won't progress - but indicates strength of feeling on this issue
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Thirteen Labour MPs have backed a Liberal Democrat bill requiring the government to begin negotiations on joining a bespoke customs union with the EU
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Thirteen Labour MPs vote for talks on joining EU customs union
One hundred MPs voted for and 100 against the Liberal Democrats' bill, which would require the UK to begin talks with the EU for a new customs union.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Thirteen Labour MPs have backed a Liberal Democrat bill requiring the government to begin negotiations on joining a bespoke customs union with the EU
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...