Erik Novales
@yankeefinn.bsky.social
🇫🇮 + 🇵🇭 = me
🇺🇸 values are no longer recognizable
🇺🇸 values are no longer recognizable
Reposted by Erik Novales
A reminder: Tariffs are a regressive tax. The anti-Robin Hood.
Trump's current tariff settings effectively impose a tax rate on low-income households that's roughly TRIPLE that on high-income folks. That's not the way taxes are supposed to work.
[source: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
Trump's current tariff settings effectively impose a tax rate on low-income households that's roughly TRIPLE that on high-income folks. That's not the way taxes are supposed to work.
[source: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
November 18, 2025 at 11:59 PM
A reminder: Tariffs are a regressive tax. The anti-Robin Hood.
Trump's current tariff settings effectively impose a tax rate on low-income households that's roughly TRIPLE that on high-income folks. That's not the way taxes are supposed to work.
[source: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
Trump's current tariff settings effectively impose a tax rate on low-income households that's roughly TRIPLE that on high-income folks. That's not the way taxes are supposed to work.
[source: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
It just struck me that my TV is, like, 11.5 years old, and... it's totally fine?
November 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
It just struck me that my TV is, like, 11.5 years old, and... it's totally fine?
Reposted by Erik Novales
Girl Scouts in a Chicago Suburb hosted a food drive. But the girls encountered masked U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents with weapons.
"ICE turned it into a scary and what felt like an unsafe environment for us to be out with these kids"
chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...
"ICE turned it into a scary and what felt like an unsafe environment for us to be out with these kids"
chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...
Masked ICE agents put damper on Oak Park Girl Scout food drive: ‘It’s heartbreaking as a mom’
Federal immigration agents were confronted in Oak Park on Saturday morning by residents blowing whistles as local Girl Scouts collect food for local pantries, rattling some girls and their parents.
chicago.suntimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Girl Scouts in a Chicago Suburb hosted a food drive. But the girls encountered masked U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents with weapons.
"ICE turned it into a scary and what felt like an unsafe environment for us to be out with these kids"
chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...
"ICE turned it into a scary and what felt like an unsafe environment for us to be out with these kids"
chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...
Reposted by Erik Novales
Some charts for those who don't know the extent of the US public (and private) investment in research (particularly in biomedical research) compared to other countries and institutions. The destruction of the US' scientific institutions has global implications.
November 2, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Some charts for those who don't know the extent of the US public (and private) investment in research (particularly in biomedical research) compared to other countries and institutions. The destruction of the US' scientific institutions has global implications.
Reposted by Erik Novales
We've just launched the first large, site-less (home, direct to participant) randomized trial for treatment of #LongCovid, testing tirzepatide (a GLP-1 drug) vs placebo. Please help spread the word
www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...
www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...
Scripps Research scientists launch new digital clinical trial to test repurposed drug for long COVID symptom relief
www.scripps.edu
October 31, 2025 at 5:07 PM
We've just launched the first large, site-less (home, direct to participant) randomized trial for treatment of #LongCovid, testing tirzepatide (a GLP-1 drug) vs placebo. Please help spread the word
www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...
www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...
So, this totally works to help with your ears after flying
Valsalva maneuver - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:26 AM
So, this totally works to help with your ears after flying
Reposted by Erik Novales
Today marks 15 years since the release of Fallout: New Vegas.
Since 2010, players have explored the Mojave Wasteland where countless Couriers have walked the same road—each carving their own story. Thank you for keeping the spirit of the game alive all these years.
Viva New Vegas. 🎲
Since 2010, players have explored the Mojave Wasteland where countless Couriers have walked the same road—each carving their own story. Thank you for keeping the spirit of the game alive all these years.
Viva New Vegas. 🎲
October 19, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Today marks 15 years since the release of Fallout: New Vegas.
Since 2010, players have explored the Mojave Wasteland where countless Couriers have walked the same road—each carving their own story. Thank you for keeping the spirit of the game alive all these years.
Viva New Vegas. 🎲
Since 2010, players have explored the Mojave Wasteland where countless Couriers have walked the same road—each carving their own story. Thank you for keeping the spirit of the game alive all these years.
Viva New Vegas. 🎲
Reposted by Erik Novales
This two-parter below is exactly why it's hard to make clothes in the United States.
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
October 12, 2025 at 9:38 PM
This two-parter below is exactly why it's hard to make clothes in the United States.
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
This definitely got my attention.
Is Bob Mould reforming Sugar with original lineup?
There's been no official word, but the Sugar instagram account is followed by the band's Bob Mould, David Barbe, and Malcolm Travis.
www.brooklynvegan.com
October 9, 2025 at 6:46 AM
This definitely got my attention.
Reposted by Erik Novales
If you live in California, today is an excellent day to call @gavinnewsom.bsky.social at (916) 445-2841 and ask him to sign SB 79. publiccomment.blog/p/newsom-s-f...
Newsom's Fateful Choice
Why the governor needs to sign SB 79
publiccomment.blog
October 6, 2025 at 3:39 PM
If you live in California, today is an excellent day to call @gavinnewsom.bsky.social at (916) 445-2841 and ask him to sign SB 79. publiccomment.blog/p/newsom-s-f...
Reposted by Erik Novales
Hey fellow Californians, please take 3 minute to call and encourage the Governor to sign SB 79.
It's a critical step forward for housing, for climate and for equity.
(916) 445-2841
It's a critical step forward for housing, for climate and for equity.
(916) 445-2841
Please call the Governor and ask him to sign SB 79!
(916) 445-2841
(916) 445-2841
October 1, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Hey fellow Californians, please take 3 minute to call and encourage the Governor to sign SB 79.
It's a critical step forward for housing, for climate and for equity.
(916) 445-2841
It's a critical step forward for housing, for climate and for equity.
(916) 445-2841
So I guess Neverwinter Nights 2 got a remaster, and I'm only just now hearing about this?
September 29, 2025 at 5:48 AM
So I guess Neverwinter Nights 2 got a remaster, and I'm only just now hearing about this?
Reposted by Erik Novales
i'm kind of with will here. one of the *strangest* features of this age is that nominally liberal elites seem totally enervated in the face of fascism--meanwhile the liberal base is screaming our heads off. this doesn't comport at all with the standard story--
If Biden had said even one-tenth of this, he’d have been impeached and removed as a dictator. What is wrong with our elites? They’re paralyzed by their fear of looking unsavvy or biased against MAGA. They’re going to keep pretending everything is normal until the bullet passes through their face
How is this not a screaming massive headline across every news site? This is insane, a virtual declaration of civil war. We fought a revolution to not be subjected to this kind of tyranny
September 6, 2025 at 7:47 PM
i'm kind of with will here. one of the *strangest* features of this age is that nominally liberal elites seem totally enervated in the face of fascism--meanwhile the liberal base is screaming our heads off. this doesn't comport at all with the standard story--
Reposted by Erik Novales
This video is fantastic and absolutely true. We're going to get to some of this later in the series on peasants but the time-labor demand of 'household chores' before ten seconds ago was enormous.
One 1900 report put the average food prep per week per woman at 44 hours; another 14 hours on laundry.
One 1900 report put the average food prep per week per woman at 44 hours; another 14 hours on laundry.
When people say "We used to drink raw milk from our own cow and it was fine,"
That's... usually not the case!
In families w their own cow, the mom usually boiled it before using.
We just forgot bc that's a boring chore that mom did. And who pays attention to that?
youtu.be/vKDPast9WFk
That's... usually not the case!
In families w their own cow, the mom usually boiled it before using.
We just forgot bc that's a boring chore that mom did. And who pays attention to that?
youtu.be/vKDPast9WFk
"Everyone Drank Raw Milk!" No They Didn't
YouTube video by Farm to Taber
youtu.be
September 3, 2025 at 7:41 PM
This video is fantastic and absolutely true. We're going to get to some of this later in the series on peasants but the time-labor demand of 'household chores' before ten seconds ago was enormous.
One 1900 report put the average food prep per week per woman at 44 hours; another 14 hours on laundry.
One 1900 report put the average food prep per week per woman at 44 hours; another 14 hours on laundry.
Reposted by Erik Novales
I dare you to go to Annunciation School and tell our grieving community, in effect, guns don’t kill kids, antidepressants do.
Just shut up. Stop peddling bullshit. You should be fired.
Just shut up. Stop peddling bullshit. You should be fired.
RFK Jr on the mass shooting in Minnesota: "We're launching studies on the potential contribution of some of the SSRI drugs and some of the other psychiatric drugs that might be contributing to violence."
August 28, 2025 at 2:04 PM
I dare you to go to Annunciation School and tell our grieving community, in effect, guns don’t kill kids, antidepressants do.
Just shut up. Stop peddling bullshit. You should be fired.
Just shut up. Stop peddling bullshit. You should be fired.
Reposted by Erik Novales
Monarez is playing her weak hand perfectly, and should be a model for institutional resistance for the next four years:
1. Make them fire you
2. Don’t go along to get along
3. Don’t apologize, have confidence in your own integrity and the importance of your role
4. Always escalate the conflict
1. Make them fire you
2. Don’t go along to get along
3. Don’t apologize, have confidence in your own integrity and the importance of your role
4. Always escalate the conflict
August 28, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Monarez is playing her weak hand perfectly, and should be a model for institutional resistance for the next four years:
1. Make them fire you
2. Don’t go along to get along
3. Don’t apologize, have confidence in your own integrity and the importance of your role
4. Always escalate the conflict
1. Make them fire you
2. Don’t go along to get along
3. Don’t apologize, have confidence in your own integrity and the importance of your role
4. Always escalate the conflict
Reposted by Erik Novales
On the left: Nate Cavanagh, a 28-year-old DOGE staffer and college dropout.
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
August 22, 2025 at 11:41 AM
On the left: Nate Cavanagh, a 28-year-old DOGE staffer and college dropout.
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
Reposted by Erik Novales
By now you've heard that native-born employment is up by millions, according to the jobs report, right?
Not true. Not conceivably true.
That analysis is a multiple-count data felony -- as Census and BLS warn.
I took a long romp through the details.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
Not true. Not conceivably true.
That analysis is a multiple-count data felony -- as Census and BLS warn.
I took a long romp through the details.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
August 13, 2025 at 4:54 PM
By now you've heard that native-born employment is up by millions, according to the jobs report, right?
Not true. Not conceivably true.
That analysis is a multiple-count data felony -- as Census and BLS warn.
I took a long romp through the details.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
Not true. Not conceivably true.
That analysis is a multiple-count data felony -- as Census and BLS warn.
I took a long romp through the details.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
Reposted by Erik Novales
this work saved millions of lives in 2021, won the Nobel Prize in 2023, and is cancelled in 2025
"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) today announced the beginning of a coordinated wind-down of its mRNA vaccine development activities...."
cc: Sen. Bill Cassidy
cc: Sen. Bill Cassidy
August 5, 2025 at 9:58 PM
this work saved millions of lives in 2021, won the Nobel Prize in 2023, and is cancelled in 2025
Reposted by Erik Novales
Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today
August 1, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today
Reposted by Erik Novales
how much of the money from the ICE/tax cuts bill is just going to go to scammers, do you think? www.richmonder.org/this-tuckaho...
This Tuckahoe home won a $1.26 billion contract for an ICE detention center. The owner isn't talking.
The company’s website is dated and largely accessible only via login.
www.richmonder.org
July 31, 2025 at 12:31 AM
how much of the money from the ICE/tax cuts bill is just going to go to scammers, do you think? www.richmonder.org/this-tuckaho...
Reposted by Erik Novales
Reminder: code review is not "to catch mistakes", it is a tool for understanding to limit bus/lottery factor first and foremost. When code is written (if you're lucky) by one human, having the second human abdicate their judgment to the machine is actively harmful to your team's code understanding.
also, the one i'm hearing which is most insidious is the “AI code/peer review” use-case: that's how you deskill people
but we'll be told that humans are still in the loop! and if they ever were skilled they are actively becoming deskilled by the “AI review”
should be obvious, but zero talk re: it
but we'll be told that humans are still in the loop! and if they ever were skilled they are actively becoming deskilled by the “AI review”
should be obvious, but zero talk re: it
July 28, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Reminder: code review is not "to catch mistakes", it is a tool for understanding to limit bus/lottery factor first and foremost. When code is written (if you're lucky) by one human, having the second human abdicate their judgment to the machine is actively harmful to your team's code understanding.
Reposted by Erik Novales
The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$, assuming no Fed reaction & full consumer passthrough. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
3/10
3/10
July 28, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 1.8% in the short-run, an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025$, assuming no Fed reaction & full consumer passthrough. The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.5%, a $2,000 loss per household.
3/10
3/10
Reposted by Erik Novales
Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short-run. The short-run burden on 1st decile households (as a % of income) is >3x that of the top decile (-3.4% versus -1.0%). The average annual cost to the 1st & top decile are $1,300 & $4,900 respectively; median is $2,200.
4/10
4/10
July 28, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short-run. The short-run burden on 1st decile households (as a % of income) is >3x that of the top decile (-3.4% versus -1.0%). The average annual cost to the 1st & top decile are $1,300 & $4,900 respectively; median is $2,200.
4/10
4/10
Reposted by Erik Novales
Underreported trade news of the day is that Trump announced that the 15% tariffs on the EU would include pharmaceuticals that have thus far been exempt from tariffs
If tariffs on pharma go up 15% this week it'd be a *massive* escalation of the trade war—the US imports $175B/yr of them from the EU
If tariffs on pharma go up 15% this week it'd be a *massive* escalation of the trade war—the US imports $175B/yr of them from the EU
July 27, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Underreported trade news of the day is that Trump announced that the 15% tariffs on the EU would include pharmaceuticals that have thus far been exempt from tariffs
If tariffs on pharma go up 15% this week it'd be a *massive* escalation of the trade war—the US imports $175B/yr of them from the EU
If tariffs on pharma go up 15% this week it'd be a *massive* escalation of the trade war—the US imports $175B/yr of them from the EU