Spenser A. Warren
@spenserawarren.bsky.social
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Harvard's Belfer Center | Formerly UC IGCC | PhD, Indiana University | Michigan State Alum | Work on nuclear weapons, emerging tech, Russia, international security | Also football and Star Wars
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
🇺🇸 As Trump orders Pentagon to test nukes ‘on par’ with Russia & China, @doreenhorschig.bsky.social notes: “The U.S. would gain little technical advantage from nuclear testing - it wouldn’t be to verify capability but to signal resolve to adversaries". Read her Paper ⤵️
🔗 www.ifri.org/en/papers/fr...
🔗 www.ifri.org/en/papers/fr...
October 30, 2025 at 10:12 AM
🇺🇸 As Trump orders Pentagon to test nukes ‘on par’ with Russia & China, @doreenhorschig.bsky.social notes: “The U.S. would gain little technical advantage from nuclear testing - it wouldn’t be to verify capability but to signal resolve to adversaries". Read her Paper ⤵️
🔗 www.ifri.org/en/papers/fr...
🔗 www.ifri.org/en/papers/fr...
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.
October 30, 2025 at 1:26 PM
FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
1. Russia has a slightly bigger stockpile than the U.S.
2. No one has tested nukes aboveground since 1980.
3. Since 1998 only N. Korea has tested nukes (underground).
4. Obama launched the renovation of the U.S. stockpile. It's not complete; timeline stretches into the 2040s ($ is headed for $2T).
2. No one has tested nukes aboveground since 1980.
3. Since 1998 only N. Korea has tested nukes (underground).
4. Obama launched the renovation of the U.S. stockpile. It's not complete; timeline stretches into the 2040s ($ is headed for $2T).
None of this is correct. Good thing we have a steady hand on "nuclear"
October 30, 2025 at 1:29 PM
1. Russia has a slightly bigger stockpile than the U.S.
2. No one has tested nukes aboveground since 1980.
3. Since 1998 only N. Korea has tested nukes (underground).
4. Obama launched the renovation of the U.S. stockpile. It's not complete; timeline stretches into the 2040s ($ is headed for $2T).
2. No one has tested nukes aboveground since 1980.
3. Since 1998 only N. Korea has tested nukes (underground).
4. Obama launched the renovation of the U.S. stockpile. It's not complete; timeline stretches into the 2040s ($ is headed for $2T).
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Hoover Senior Fellow Sumit Ganguly & MTA Stanton Fellow
@spenserawarren.bsky.social note: India’s Air Force shone in Kargil ’99 but stumbled in Pahalgam ’25. Lesson? Strike early on military targets—despite higher risk—to stay ahead www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
@spenserawarren.bsky.social note: India’s Air Force shone in Kargil ’99 but stumbled in Pahalgam ’25. Lesson? Strike early on military targets—despite higher risk—to stay ahead www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
Escalation Risks Rising? Airpower in Kargil and Pahalgam
Published in The Washington Quarterly (Vol. 48, No. 3, 2025)
www.tandfonline.com
October 2, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Hoover Senior Fellow Sumit Ganguly & MTA Stanton Fellow
@spenserawarren.bsky.social note: India’s Air Force shone in Kargil ’99 but stumbled in Pahalgam ’25. Lesson? Strike early on military targets—despite higher risk—to stay ahead www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
@spenserawarren.bsky.social note: India’s Air Force shone in Kargil ’99 but stumbled in Pahalgam ’25. Lesson? Strike early on military targets—despite higher risk—to stay ahead www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
What a way to make the APEC summit in Korea next month awkward for the 🇺🇸 president.
according to an immigration attorney representing several arrested workers, ICE agents chose to arrest the Korean workers to fulfill the quota of 3,000 daily immigrant arrests set by Stephen Miller www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
Stephen Miller’s Quota Likely Drove Korean Arrests In Immigration Raid
When ICE agents arrested over 300 Korean workers at a Georgia battery plant, a daily immigrant arrest quota was likely on their minds.
www.forbes.com
September 17, 2025 at 3:06 AM
What a way to make the APEC summit in Korea next month awkward for the 🇺🇸 president.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Melissa Hortman practiced politics the right way.
September 11, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Melissa Hortman practiced politics the right way.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
As I suspected, Nepal's army is now in-charge: www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
September 10, 2025 at 7:15 PM
As I suspected, Nepal's army is now in-charge: www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
Nuclear weapons and Spartan football expert here:
Yes he does.
Yes he does.
We got a kicker with an ICBM for a leg 👀
September 7, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Nuclear weapons and Spartan football expert here:
Yes he does.
Yes he does.
This might be the best sports prediction I've ever made.
September 7, 2025 at 3:45 AM
This might be the best sports prediction I've ever made.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
D3 ADRIAN TAKES DOWN FCS VALPO 10-7!!!
BEVEL EM
BEVEL EM
September 7, 2025 at 2:00 AM
D3 ADRIAN TAKES DOWN FCS VALPO 10-7!!!
BEVEL EM
BEVEL EM
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
What a win for Aidan Chiles and Michigan State.
We just watched a young QB grow up in front of our eyes.
We just watched a young QB grow up in front of our eyes.
September 7, 2025 at 3:19 AM
What a win for Aidan Chiles and Michigan State.
We just watched a young QB grow up in front of our eyes.
We just watched a young QB grow up in front of our eyes.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
D3 Adrian has a second half lead against FCS Valpo 👀
The only teams that can give the Pioneer real games are other non-scholly teams it would seem.
September 7, 2025 at 1:04 AM
D3 Adrian has a second half lead against FCS Valpo 👀
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
I am constantly saying this but one thing to know is that Vance’s comms team is run by very young, very online and very far right guys. They were a big part of having him push the Haitians cats and dogs thing.
This is an actual exchange from a VP who took an oath to defend the constitution and, as a citizen, is expected to abide by the law.
May we one day have accountability for the grotesque lawlessness of this regime.
May we one day have accountability for the grotesque lawlessness of this regime.
September 6, 2025 at 4:04 PM
I am constantly saying this but one thing to know is that Vance’s comms team is run by very young, very online and very far right guys. They were a big part of having him push the Haitians cats and dogs thing.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
As a DC resident I feel like I should say:
This is a complete and utter lie.
My kid, under age 12, walked to school last year into an area close to downtown.
Telling the truth is an important thing.
This is a complete and utter lie.
My kid, under age 12, walked to school last year into an area close to downtown.
Telling the truth is an important thing.
Stephen Miller on DC residents: "For the first time in their lives, they can use the parks, they can walk on the streets. You have people who can walk freely at night without having to worry about being robbed or mugged. They are wearing their watches again."
August 25, 2025 at 11:14 PM
As a DC resident I feel like I should say:
This is a complete and utter lie.
My kid, under age 12, walked to school last year into an area close to downtown.
Telling the truth is an important thing.
This is a complete and utter lie.
My kid, under age 12, walked to school last year into an area close to downtown.
Telling the truth is an important thing.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
1/6 Paul Bacon and I have a new paper out in The Pacific Review.
We tackled a puzzle: how do you analyze something like the "Indo-Pacific" using Regional Security Complex Theory when it's way too big to be a normal region? 🧩
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/NYX5Q...
We tackled a puzzle: how do you analyze something like the "Indo-Pacific" using Regional Security Complex Theory when it's way too big to be a normal region? 🧩
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/NYX5Q...
The Indo-Pacific as a macrosecuritized constellation: revising regional security Complex Theory for the age of the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific is increasingly talked about as being a region. However, the sheer geographical size of the Indo-Pacific, which on a maximalist definition stretches from the east coast of Africa t...
www.tandfonline.com
August 19, 2025 at 9:50 PM
1/6 Paul Bacon and I have a new paper out in The Pacific Review.
We tackled a puzzle: how do you analyze something like the "Indo-Pacific" using Regional Security Complex Theory when it's way too big to be a normal region? 🧩
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/NYX5Q...
We tackled a puzzle: how do you analyze something like the "Indo-Pacific" using Regional Security Complex Theory when it's way too big to be a normal region? 🧩
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/NYX5Q...
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
There’s no longer any pretense this has anything to do with crime (there are cities or parts of cities in SC and Ohio that have higher crime rates than DC — send the troops there!). This is about establishing a precedent for Trump seizing control of the nation’s capital when he wants to.
WASHINGTON (AP) — South Carolina, Ohio also sending National Guard troops to DC in further escalation of federal intervention in Dem city.
August 17, 2025 at 1:15 AM
There’s no longer any pretense this has anything to do with crime (there are cities or parts of cities in SC and Ohio that have higher crime rates than DC — send the troops there!). This is about establishing a precedent for Trump seizing control of the nation’s capital when he wants to.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.
Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit
Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.
n.pr
August 16, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
August 6 and 9 mark the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. I wrote for @us.theconversation.com about their influence in crafting the nuclear nonproliferation regime and on the perils of retreating from their memories.
theconversation.com/the-treaty-m...
theconversation.com/the-treaty-m...
The treaty meant to control nuclear risks is under strain 80 years after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
In the wake of the US attacks, the international community asked itself how it could ensure that such horrors were never repeated.
theconversation.com
August 4, 2025 at 3:00 PM
August 6 and 9 mark the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. I wrote for @us.theconversation.com about their influence in crafting the nuclear nonproliferation regime and on the perils of retreating from their memories.
theconversation.com/the-treaty-m...
theconversation.com/the-treaty-m...
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
I believe one of the new mRNA vaccines was expected to treat colon cancer, and another had the potential to keep pancreatic cancer from recurring. That’s what they’re taking away.
WHAT, WHAT, WHAT ARE WE DOING!!!
“Vaccine experts and people steeped in pandemic preparedness expressed horror at the news.” www.statnews.com/2025/08/05/m...
“Vaccine experts and people steeped in pandemic preparedness expressed horror at the news.” www.statnews.com/2025/08/05/m...
Health secretary RFK Jr. shuts door on U.S. investment in mRNA vaccine research
Vaccine experts and people steeped in pandemic preparedness expressed horror at the news that RFK Jr. has shut the door in U.S. investment in mRNA vaccine research.
www.statnews.com
August 6, 2025 at 12:02 AM
I believe one of the new mRNA vaccines was expected to treat colon cancer, and another had the potential to keep pancreatic cancer from recurring. That’s what they’re taking away.
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Every reputable expert I know considers mRNA vaccine technology to be one of the most revolutionary advances in medicine in our lifetimes. Its inventors won the Nobel Prize in 2023. Shutting it down now is pointless self-harm to humanity.
Release from HHS: HHS will wind down its development of the mRNA vaccine development activities under the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA).
August 5, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Every reputable expert I know considers mRNA vaccine technology to be one of the most revolutionary advances in medicine in our lifetimes. Its inventors won the Nobel Prize in 2023. Shutting it down now is pointless self-harm to humanity.
Wanted to catch the Nats before leaving DC, so I bought tickets to the cheapest game I could find, tonight against the A's.
I wanted to see the Red Sox at Fenway next month, but all of the games were $50+... except the A's at $22.
So guess who's following the A's around the East Coast?
I wanted to see the Red Sox at Fenway next month, but all of the games were $50+... except the A's at $22.
So guess who's following the A's around the East Coast?
August 5, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Wanted to catch the Nats before leaving DC, so I bought tickets to the cheapest game I could find, tonight against the A's.
I wanted to see the Red Sox at Fenway next month, but all of the games were $50+... except the A's at $22.
So guess who's following the A's around the East Coast?
I wanted to see the Red Sox at Fenway next month, but all of the games were $50+... except the A's at $22.
So guess who's following the A's around the East Coast?
Implications of IRBM forward deployment aside, VP is playing fast and loose with the definition of "Hypersonic Weapon" again.
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/08/...
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/08/...
Putin says Russia’s hypersonic missile has entered service and will be deployed in Belarus | CNN
Russia’s missile forces chief has declared that Oreshnik, which can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, has a range allowing it to reach all of Europe.
amp.cnn.com
August 1, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Implications of IRBM forward deployment aside, VP is playing fast and loose with the definition of "Hypersonic Weapon" again.
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/08/...
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/08/...
Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
The idea of moving US ballistic missile submarines around for signaling purposes is not exactly new. Just a year ago, in July 2024, a perfectly Nuclear Submarine USS Tennessee made a very visible visit to the Norwegian Sea (link below) 1/
August 1, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The idea of moving US ballistic missile submarines around for signaling purposes is not exactly new. Just a year ago, in July 2024, a perfectly Nuclear Submarine USS Tennessee made a very visible visit to the Norwegian Sea (link below) 1/