Caitlin Talmadge
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army
https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
Pinned
Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.
Serious question per some commentary earlier by @profsaunders.bsky.social: can anyone explain what it is that the US would want in Greenland that it can't currently get?
January 6, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Serious question per some commentary earlier by @profsaunders.bsky.social: can anyone explain what it is that the US would want in Greenland that it can't currently get?
But that wouldn't make America look like a tough guy!
It's almost like our leaders don't have coherent strategic rationales for doing things and are driven by deep insecurities and a thirst for performative violence.
It's almost like our leaders don't have coherent strategic rationales for doing things and are driven by deep insecurities and a thirst for performative violence.
What is just crazy about this, aside from the need for this statement at all, is that Greenland already IS in the US sphere of influence. It's far cheaper for the US, in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.
Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:
January 6, 2026 at 12:52 PM
But that wouldn't make America look like a tough guy!
It's almost like our leaders don't have coherent strategic rationales for doing things and are driven by deep insecurities and a thirst for performative violence.
It's almost like our leaders don't have coherent strategic rationales for doing things and are driven by deep insecurities and a thirst for performative violence.
Worth reading on why Trump is so hard to predict, and I largely agree.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...
warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...
Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy?
A number of thoughtful observers argued President Donald Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. I was never convinced. On our podcast and in
warontherocks.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Worth reading on why Trump is so hard to predict, and I largely agree.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...
warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...
So Trump threw Machado under the bus due to fear she couldn't get Venezuela's powerful defense & security forces under control. Key question is what happens if Rodriguez can't do this either. Reminder: these people were all hand-picked by Maduro.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | CIA Concluded Regime Loyalists Were Best Placed to Lead Venezuela After Maduro
President Trump was briefed on an intelligence report that found the country’s opposition would struggle to lead a temporary government.
www.wsj.com
January 6, 2026 at 11:49 AM
So Trump threw Machado under the bus due to fear she couldn't get Venezuela's powerful defense & security forces under control. Key question is what happens if Rodriguez can't do this either. Reminder: these people were all hand-picked by Maduro.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Turns out oil companies have little interest in investing in Venezuela given that Maduro's entire political apparatus is still in charge of the country. Oops. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
Exclusive | Trump’s Hint to Oil Executives Weeks Before Maduro Ouster: ‘Get Ready’
The U.S. president now wants oil companies to grow Venezuela’s production.
www.wsj.com
January 6, 2026 at 11:37 AM
Turns out oil companies have little interest in investing in Venezuela given that Maduro's entire political apparatus is still in charge of the country. Oops. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
"Military intervention without a clear path to strategic and political success"
www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...
www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...
Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuela | Brookings
Brookings experts consider the immediate implications of the U.S. military operation in Venezuela.
www.brookings.edu
January 5, 2026 at 11:58 PM
"Military intervention without a clear path to strategic and political success"
www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...
www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Venezuela’s Men With Guns Remain the Ultimate Power After Maduro’s Ouster
Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino command Venezuela’s police and military, and represent a wild card for Trump.
www.wsj.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:05 PM
US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.
January 4, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.
Trump seems to harbor belief that Venezuela intervention will deter challenges to US elsewhere. If US gets bogged down in a needless Latin American military campaign, the opposite is more likely.
January 4, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Trump seems to harbor belief that Venezuela intervention will deter challenges to US elsewhere. If US gets bogged down in a needless Latin American military campaign, the opposite is more likely.
Unless Venezuela is politically & economically stable, v unlikely oil companies come rushing back in. Trump can try to strong arm them, & regime leaders, to do his bidding, but what happens when both private & govt actors don't comply with his vision of a South American Valhalla? Endless escalation?
January 4, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Unless Venezuela is politically & economically stable, v unlikely oil companies come rushing back in. Trump can try to strong arm them, & regime leaders, to do his bidding, but what happens when both private & govt actors don't comply with his vision of a South American Valhalla? Endless escalation?
This is a good moment to step back & remember that U.S. military intervention in Venezuela was 100% elective. This is what you see next to "war of choice" in the dictionary. Not forced on U.S. in any way by any pressing issue or imminent/actual attack. Just something POTUS felt like doing.
January 4, 2026 at 4:09 PM
This is a good moment to step back & remember that U.S. military intervention in Venezuela was 100% elective. This is what you see next to "war of choice" in the dictionary. Not forced on U.S. in any way by any pressing issue or imminent/actual attack. Just something POTUS felt like doing.
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela
If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:17 PM
“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.
This makes the Iraq War seem well planned.
January 3, 2026 at 5:52 PM
This makes the Iraq War seem well planned.
Fun fact, there’s a difference between leadership decapitation & actual regime change. With the former you capture/kill someone and it takes hours. With the latter you undo and redo all the civil and military institutions they built. It takes years and ground forces.
January 3, 2026 at 5:27 PM
Fun fact, there’s a difference between leadership decapitation & actual regime change. With the former you capture/kill someone and it takes hours. With the latter you undo and redo all the civil and military institutions they built. It takes years and ground forces.
You can simultaneously:
- hate the scourge of drugs
- be shedding zero tears for Maduro
And still think this is a really bad idea.
- hate the scourge of drugs
- be shedding zero tears for Maduro
And still think this is a really bad idea.
January 3, 2026 at 5:07 PM
You can simultaneously:
- hate the scourge of drugs
- be shedding zero tears for Maduro
And still think this is a really bad idea.
- hate the scourge of drugs
- be shedding zero tears for Maduro
And still think this is a really bad idea.
The US is going to “run” Venezuela? How? It is a country of 30M people, comparable to Iraqi population in 2003, and the one thing Trump hasn’t done is build up large-scale ground forces in the region needed for occupation.
January 3, 2026 at 5:01 PM
The US is going to “run” Venezuela? How? It is a country of 30M people, comparable to Iraqi population in 2003, and the one thing Trump hasn’t done is build up large-scale ground forces in the region needed for occupation.
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
Anyone who says they know what happens next is lying. But Trump has made the range of outcomes huge. There's no process, no checks to produce course corrections, far less capacity to implement corrections, no experienced civilians in charge. /8 @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
Trump may strike Venezuela. His team makes that very risky.
Take a close look at who is advising the president on U.S. policy.
goodauthority.org
January 3, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Anyone who says they know what happens next is lying. But Trump has made the range of outcomes huge. There's no process, no checks to produce course corrections, far less capacity to implement corrections, no experienced civilians in charge. /8 @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
Excellent article on China's expanding nuclear ambitions. Lots of evidence beyond silo construction. wapo.st/49lkL22
China expands nuclear warhead manufacturing capacity, research finds
Satellite images suggest China is growing the sites where it makes warheads, while also preparing to retaliate faster — signs of its nuclear ambitions.
wapo.st
December 28, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Excellent article on China's expanding nuclear ambitions. Lots of evidence beyond silo construction. wapo.st/49lkL22
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
I strongly support reviving the bilateral arms control process. Nuclear danger is a thing! But the changing legal status of Rubezh/Oreshnik shows what Putin is offering at the moment is a sham: the appearance of arms control, rather than the real thing.
December 24, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I strongly support reviving the bilateral arms control process. Nuclear danger is a thing! But the changing legal status of Rubezh/Oreshnik shows what Putin is offering at the moment is a sham: the appearance of arms control, rather than the real thing.
China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out.
media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov
December 24, 2025 at 12:23 PM
China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out.
media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
Been wondering about this for a year. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/w...
For Fallen Syrian Dictator Assad and Family, an Exile of Luxury and Impunity
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Been wondering about this for a year. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/w...
Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...
Trump Announces New ‘Trump Class’ of Warships
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...
Sobering analysis: "The reality of a possible U.S.-Venezuelan confrontation is that while Venezuela cannot win a conventional war, it can make a U.S. intervention a costly, uncertain, and politically explosive gamble."
warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...
warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...
Weak in Battle, Dangerous in Resistance: Venezuela’s Military Preparedness and Possible Responses to U.S. Action
The dramatic surge in U.S. military power in the Caribbean since August 2025 — anchored by the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the deployment of F-35s
warontherocks.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Sobering analysis: "The reality of a possible U.S.-Venezuelan confrontation is that while Venezuela cannot win a conventional war, it can make a U.S. intervention a costly, uncertain, and politically explosive gamble."
warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...
warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...
Please consider donating to the Go Fund Me set up to support the family of Nuno Loureiro, the MIT professor horrifically slain in his home earlier this week. He leaves behind a wife and three young daughters. Link here:
gofund.me/d9681940c
gofund.me/d9681940c
Donate to In Loving Memory of Nuno Loureiro, Supporting His Family, organized by Iva Konieczka
With heavy hearts, we share this page on behalf of the Loureiro… Iva Konieczka needs your support for In Loving Memory of Nuno Loureiro, Supporting His Family
gofund.me
December 19, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Please consider donating to the Go Fund Me set up to support the family of Nuno Loureiro, the MIT professor horrifically slain in his home earlier this week. He leaves behind a wife and three young daughters. Link here:
gofund.me/d9681940c
gofund.me/d9681940c