Caitlin Talmadge
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army
https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
Pinned
Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say
www.nytimes.com
Welcome to Late Stage Civil-Military Dysfunction. When you fire the JAGs & then order the military to do unlawful things, this is what you get. Alarm bells should be ringing-- combatant commander stepping down during ongoing military operations is unprecedented AFAIK. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/u...
Much scarier than the Burevestnik test
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Putin Is Turning Eighth-Grade Classrooms Into Army Training Grounds
A vast militarization of the education system is gathering pace in Russian classrooms, where students are trained to handle weapons by active soldiers.
www.wsj.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Much scarier than the Burevestnik test
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Quite a double standard here: "Despite concluding that an armed conflict is underway, the memo also says the operation is not covered by the War Powers Resolution" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
Memo Blessing Boat Strikes Is Said to Rely on Trump’s Claims About Cartels
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Quite a double standard here: "Despite concluding that an armed conflict is underway, the memo also says the operation is not covered by the War Powers Resolution" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
Civil-military relations again rears its head as a key variable in the generation of authoritarian military power...
Good quotes from @josephtorigian.bsky.social here
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...
Good quotes from @josephtorigian.bsky.social here
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...
Xi’s Military Purges Show Unease About China’s Nuclear Forces
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Civil-military relations again rears its head as a key variable in the generation of authoritarian military power...
Good quotes from @josephtorigian.bsky.social here
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...
Good quotes from @josephtorigian.bsky.social here
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...
Significant development-- could pave the way for introduction of U.S. nuclear weapons to Japanese territory
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
www.reuters.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Significant development-- could pave the way for introduction of U.S. nuclear weapons to Japanese territory
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
Great debate on "gulf" between academic community that believes in "theory of the nuclear revolution, strategic stability, counter-population or minimum deterrence & US gov't...who saw enduring value in damage limitation strategies or counterforce" strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d...
Debating Damage Limitation
Charlie Glaser joins us to reprise a recent debate on damage limitation
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Great debate on "gulf" between academic community that believes in "theory of the nuclear revolution, strategic stability, counter-population or minimum deterrence & US gov't...who saw enduring value in damage limitation strategies or counterforce" strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d...
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
🧵New piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social on risks of striking Venezuela, focused on the added risk from Trump team of loyalists. Hint: it has to do with centralized role of Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, and the incompetence of advisers like SecDef Hegseth. 1/
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
Trump may strike Venezuela. His team makes that very risky.
Take a close look at who is advising the president on U.S. policy.
goodauthority.org
November 3, 2025 at 1:10 PM
🧵New piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social on risks of striking Venezuela, focused on the added risk from Trump team of loyalists. Hint: it has to do with centralized role of Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, and the incompetence of advisers like SecDef Hegseth. 1/
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
Brilliant and deeply researched essay by Lindsey O'Rourke and Alex Downes on the many dangers of regime change operations.
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela
If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Brilliant and deeply researched essay by Lindsey O'Rourke and Alex Downes on the many dangers of regime change operations.
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...
One of those rare times the President should trust his instincts
November 4, 2025 at 11:14 PM
One of those rare times the President should trust his instincts
Rare MAGA on MAGA violence over Congressional control of defense policy
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
Pentagon’s policy shop is a ‘Pigpen-like’ mess: Sen. Cotton
Senate Armed Services Committee members from both parties question DOD missteps, actions that contravened president’s foreign-policy positions.
www.defenseone.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Rare MAGA on MAGA violence over Congressional control of defense policy
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
My latest with Mike O'Hanlon on why a military campaign against Venezuela will likely fail:
nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...
nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...
Bombing Venezuela Won’t Solve the Maduro Problem
Historically, even overwhelming air and missile attacks rarely achieve strategic objectives.
nationalinterest.org
November 4, 2025 at 12:44 PM
My latest with Mike O'Hanlon on why a military campaign against Venezuela will likely fail:
nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...
nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...
Good development but need more details to know what it really means. Who can actually connect rapidly with whom here is a big deal....
www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...
www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...
US, China reportedly agree to set up military communication channels
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun, late Saturday on the sidelines of a regional security meeting.
www.militarytimes.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Good development but need more details to know what it really means. Who can actually connect rapidly with whom here is a big deal....
www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...
www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...
Does acting like an irrational maniac make Trump a more effective negotiator?
In a word, no.
My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
In a word, no.
My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
Why Trump’s Madman Act Doesn’t Work
The administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals.
www.lawfaremedia.org
November 2, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Does acting like an irrational maniac make Trump a more effective negotiator?
In a word, no.
My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
In a word, no.
My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
History demonstrates why the administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals, write Samuel Seitz and @proftalmadge.bsky.social.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
Why Trump’s Madman Act Doesn’t Work
The administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals.
www.lawfaremedia.org
November 2, 2025 at 2:30 PM
History demonstrates why the administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals, write Samuel Seitz and @proftalmadge.bsky.social.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...
This is good.
taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...
taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...
Billboards outside US Southern Command urge troops not to 'break the law’ in Caribbean strikes
“Don’t let them make you break the law,” reads a billboard along the road to U.S. Southern Command, one of several set up by veterans.
taskandpurpose.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:24 PM
This is good.
taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...
taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...
I never knew Halloween could feel heavy, but it's hard to slap on a smile and gear up for a holiday about gorging on candy when millions of kids are about to lose SNAP benefits.
October 31, 2025 at 11:39 AM
I never knew Halloween could feel heavy, but it's hard to slap on a smile and gear up for a holiday about gorging on candy when millions of kids are about to lose SNAP benefits.
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing
China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
As I was saying… 👇🏻
One thing I recently updated: US supercomputing zoomed past the benchmark established for stockpile stewardship (100 tflops) and also China has too. The Chinese have the computers to design new weapons, but what they don't have is the data from nuclear testing -- yet.
October 30, 2025 at 3:39 PM
As I was saying… 👇🏻
Trump continues to be both arsonist and fireman.
Waiting for someone to explain why the announcement of a trade relationship that is worse than the one we had a year ago is received as a big success
October 30, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Trump continues to be both arsonist and fireman.
Wut. This is actually way more puzzling than Trump's tweet. 🤔 How on earth are we going to build ROK nuclear-powered subs in... *checks notes*... Philadelphia? If it were that easy we wouldn't be having so much difficulty building our own and the ones we owe Australia.
www.ft.com/content/a6ee...
www.ft.com/content/a6ee...
Donald Trump says South Korea can build nuclear-powered submarines in US
Announcement could rattle China and follows pressure from Seoul to build up its nuclear capacity
www.ft.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Wut. This is actually way more puzzling than Trump's tweet. 🤔 How on earth are we going to build ROK nuclear-powered subs in... *checks notes*... Philadelphia? If it were that easy we wouldn't be having so much difficulty building our own and the ones we owe Australia.
www.ft.com/content/a6ee...
www.ft.com/content/a6ee...
Congress pushing back against Hegseth attempts to restrict military communications with Congress, a bedrock of healthy civilian control of the military. 👏👏👏
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
Senators challenge Hegseth’s bottleneck on communications with Congress
The Senate Armed Services chairman said new limits in a recent memo “may need to be clarified.”
www.defenseone.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Congress pushing back against Hegseth attempts to restrict military communications with Congress, a bedrock of healthy civilian control of the military. 👏👏👏
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
Can't wait to read this!
Happy Publication Day and congratulations to Dr. @kschake.bsky.social !
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States
Amazon.com: The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States eBook : Schake, Kori: Kindle Store
www.amazon.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Can't wait to read this!
FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.
October 30, 2025 at 1:26 PM
FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
October 30, 2025 at 6:22 AM
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier to the Caribbean
The move would be a major escalation of the Trump administration’s military campaign to target drug smugglers and threaten governments in Latin America.
www.wsj.com
October 27, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Ensuring the future surface fleet can deter China is a great idea! Step 1: Stop sending the current fleet off on a fool's errand in the Caribbean.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | Trump Pushes for New Classes of Navy Warships
The president is personally involved in discussions for what the Navy is calling the “Golden Fleet.” The new warships would be better suited to counter China and other potential future threats.
www.wsj.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Ensuring the future surface fleet can deter China is a great idea! Step 1: Stop sending the current fleet off on a fool's errand in the Caribbean.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...