Stephen Herzog
banner
herzogsm.bsky.social
Stephen Herzog
@herzogsm.bsky.social
Professor of the Practice, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies | Associate, Harvard Project on Managing the Atom | nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, technology
Pinned
1/7
How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/2

I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social.

Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Nuclear Negotiations
This volume studies nuclear negotiations and diplomacy from a negotiation perspective providing key insights for effective nuclear negotiations
link.springer.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:09 PM
1/2

I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social.

Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Nuclear Negotiations
This volume studies nuclear negotiations and diplomacy from a negotiation perspective providing key insights for effective nuclear negotiations
link.springer.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
@mvranka.bsky.social for @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Their latest paper uses survey experiments on US & UK policy decision-makers to show that public backing for or opposition to nuclear use shapes perceptions of third party deterrent threats and affects elites’ support for nuclear use.
ssp.news/ls111125
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
ssp.news
November 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
“For international relations and security studies scholars, the continued reluctance by nuclear-armed states to employ their arsenals – even when fighting and losing major wars – remains a significant puzzle,” write @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, & (1/2)
November 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
1/4

Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org

Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
November 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.

Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.

doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social -

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use - https://cup.org/4nNXCtY

- Michal Smetana, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social

#FirstView
November 11, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
November 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
A new & broad public opinion survey shows US reputation strengthened by actions related to Russia's war against Ukraine, as caution without abandonment & firmness without escalation reassured allies, argue @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & Alexander Lanoszka @foreignpolicy.com 5/10
Reliable, Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
US, Russia’s tests & subs, Euro deterrent, conventional forces, US space force & House of Dynamite in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10
October 31, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
Very pleased to have published a short piece with Lauren and Stephen in Foreign Policy that describes our latest research.
1/5
In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...
Reliable Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
1/5
In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...
Reliable Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 20, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
As the United States faces simultaneous challenges from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others, it cannot afford to equate credibility with maximalist shows of force.
Reliable Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 20, 2025 at 11:30 PM
1/5
In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...
Reliable Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 20, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...
October 16, 2025 at 2:46 PM
I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...
October 16, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Reposted by Stephen Herzog
AI could fuel a tech arms race between proliferation-enabling & detection-enhancing tools - favoring the former & straining conventional monitoring & verification methods, which poses risks to nonproliferation, analyze @herzogsm.bsky.social & David Allison @socriskanalysis.bsky.social 8/10
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:39 AM