Michal Smetana
@smetanamichal.bsky.social
Associate Professor at Charles University | Director of the Peace Research Center Prague & the Experimental Lab for Int. Security Studies | PI of the ERC project MICROCODE | international security & politics | http://michalsmetana.academic.ws
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use?
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social.
Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Michal Smetana
1/4
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
1/4
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
November 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
1/2 Our new paper has just been published in
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
@ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Huge congratulations to our Ph.D. candidate Zakir Rzazade
for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social
for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social
October 18, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Huge congratulations to our Ph.D. candidate Zakir Rzazade
for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social
for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social
Reposted by Michal Smetana
🥳 Srdečně vás zveme na další večer plný debat TO JE KRIZE! Tentokrát s @voxpot.bsky.social, @amoklima.bsky.social a @iirprague.bsky.social. Těšit se můžete na debaty o AI a klima dezinformacích, české politice vůči Izraeli, oligarchizaci politiky a morálce v současných konfliktech.
September 3, 2025 at 3:58 PM
🥳 Srdečně vás zveme na další večer plný debat TO JE KRIZE! Tentokrát s @voxpot.bsky.social, @amoklima.bsky.social a @iirprague.bsky.social. Těšit se můžete na debaty o AI a klima dezinformacích, české politice vůči Izraeli, oligarchizaci politiky a morálce v současných konfliktech.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
🇺🇦 Co by se stalo, kdyby Ukrajina neměla jasně dané bezpečnostní záruky? O tom, ale i o Trumpovi, Putinovi a Aljašce mluvil náš ředitel @smetanamichal.bsky.social s
@jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social.
➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum...
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
@jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social.
➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum...
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
August 22, 2025 at 11:37 AM
🇺🇦 Co by se stalo, kdyby Ukrajina neměla jasně dané bezpečnostní záruky? O tom, ale i o Trumpovi, Putinovi a Aljašce mluvil náš ředitel @smetanamichal.bsky.social s
@jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social.
➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum...
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
@jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social.
➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum...
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
Reposted by Michal Smetana
🚨 New from our partner @prcp.cuni.cz : "Public support for arms control in the third nuclear age" by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social.
How do #NATO publics view arms control amid tech change & arms races? 📄 Read: 👇
How do #NATO publics view arms control amid tech change & arms races? 📄 Read: 👇
New article in @ejir.bsky.social! 🚨
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
August 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
🚨 New from our partner @prcp.cuni.cz : "Public support for arms control in the third nuclear age" by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social.
How do #NATO publics view arms control amid tech change & arms races? 📄 Read: 👇
How do #NATO publics view arms control amid tech change & arms races? 📄 Read: 👇
Reposted by Michal Smetana
👉 Přečtěte si rozhovor s naším odborníkem @smetanamichal.bsky.social k 80. výročí svržení atomové bomby na Hirošimu.
80 let od svržení atomové bomby na Hirošimu — a jaderné napětí opět stoupá.
„Nejde o zvyšování počty jaderných arzenálů, ale o jejich vylepšování. Všech devět jaderných států vynakládá obrovské prostředky v rámci kvalitativních závodů ve zbrojení,“ říká bezpečnostní expert. irozhl.as/wBe
„Nejde o zvyšování počty jaderných arzenálů, ale o jejich vylepšování. Všech devět jaderných států vynakládá obrovské prostředky v rámci kvalitativních závodů ve zbrojení,“ říká bezpečnostní expert. irozhl.as/wBe
Expert: Rusko se teď ve válce cítí více v kramflecích, zmenšilo se tím riziko eskalace jaderného konfliktu
„Odstrašující potenciál Spojených států je rozhodně jeden z faktorů, které pravděpodobně Vladimir Putin musel zvažovat ve chvíli, kdy jaderná karta byla na stole.“
irozhl.as
August 7, 2025 at 9:55 AM
👉 Přečtěte si rozhovor s naším odborníkem @smetanamichal.bsky.social k 80. výročí svržení atomové bomby na Hirošimu.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
🎉 We are happy to officially welcome Isabelle Haynes as a new member to our @erc.europa.eu #MICROCODE team! She is a new Ph.D. candidate at the @ims.fsv.cuni.cz and in her research, she will investigate cross-national heterogeneity in public support for the collective defence principle.
July 20, 2025 at 8:26 AM
🎉 We are happy to officially welcome Isabelle Haynes as a new member to our @erc.europa.eu #MICROCODE team! She is a new Ph.D. candidate at the @ims.fsv.cuni.cz and in her research, she will investigate cross-national heterogeneity in public support for the collective defence principle.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
New article in @ejir.bsky.social! 🚨
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
July 15, 2025 at 7:21 AM
New article in @ejir.bsky.social! 🚨
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
@smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion.
@ims.fsv.cuni.cz
My new article on Iran's nuclear program in @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/2025/07/how-...
warontherocks.com/2025/07/how-...
How Iran Overplayed its Hand - War on the Rocks
After Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, there were good reasons to be skeptical about the official justification for launching the operation. After
warontherocks.com
July 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
My new article on Iran's nuclear program in @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/2025/07/how-...
warontherocks.com/2025/07/how-...
1/2 Our new paper (w/ @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social) on public support for nuclear arms control has just been published in @ejir.bsky.social (open access link to the full article is in the next post)
July 13, 2025 at 12:07 PM
1/2 Our new paper (w/ @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social) on public support for nuclear arms control has just been published in @ejir.bsky.social (open access link to the full article is in the next post)
Reposted by Michal Smetana
This was what Bibi told the world pre-Iraq 2003 invasion. It was a lie then. It worked.
No wonder he is trying it again.
No wonder he is trying it again.
On the face of it, an implausible claim. “I'll tell you what would have come if we hadn't acted. We had information that this unscrupulous regime was planning to give the nuclear weapons that they would develop to their terrorist proxies. That's nuclear terrorism on steroids”
June 15, 2025 at 11:54 AM
This was what Bibi told the world pre-Iraq 2003 invasion. It was a lie then. It worked.
No wonder he is trying it again.
No wonder he is trying it again.
The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
June 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
@prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz
Join us at @apsa.bsky.social in Vancouver!
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
June 9, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Join us at @apsa.bsky.social in Vancouver!
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
@mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social
Reposted by Michal Smetana
I'm just glad one of these men has the nuclear codes and the other has all our personal data.
June 5, 2025 at 8:24 PM
I'm just glad one of these men has the nuclear codes and the other has all our personal data.
Reposted by Michal Smetana
INTERFER - our shiny new project on foreign interference, coordinated by @smetanamichal.bsky.social at @ims.fsv.cuni.cz now has a website! www.interfer-project.eu
May 30, 2025 at 7:19 AM
INTERFER - our shiny new project on foreign interference, coordinated by @smetanamichal.bsky.social at @ims.fsv.cuni.cz now has a website! www.interfer-project.eu
Reposted by Michal Smetana
🥳 Our #INTERFER project website has launched! You can find all information about the project, its work packages as well as the entire research team at interfer-project.eu.
May 27, 2025 at 5:58 AM
🥳 Our #INTERFER project website has launched! You can find all information about the project, its work packages as well as the entire research team at interfer-project.eu.
1/2 🚨 New preprint alert 🚨 Together w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social, we provide first experimental evidence on how public views on nuclear weapon use shape elite decision-making. Must read for scholars conducting nuclear nonuse experiments!
May 5, 2025 at 6:52 PM
1/2 🚨 New preprint alert 🚨 Together w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social, we provide first experimental evidence on how public views on nuclear weapon use shape elite decision-making. Must read for scholars conducting nuclear nonuse experiments!
Reposted by Michal Smetana
Has the “nuclear taboo” weakened in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine? A new study by @smetanamichal.bsky.social and @profonderco.bsky.social finds that “atomic aversion” among the Russian public has remained virtually unchanged.
Why is this the case? 🤔 Read more here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Why is this the case? 🤔 Read more here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
April 29, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Has the “nuclear taboo” weakened in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine? A new study by @smetanamichal.bsky.social and @profonderco.bsky.social finds that “atomic aversion” among the Russian public has remained virtually unchanged.
Why is this the case? 🤔 Read more here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Why is this the case? 🤔 Read more here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Our new @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE report explores public support for defending Taiwan across Western countries 👇
🧵 Would the West support defending Taiwan in the case of Chinese invasion?
Have a look at our new data from the latest @erc.europa.eu report ⬇️
Have a look at our new data from the latest @erc.europa.eu report ⬇️
April 22, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Our new @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE report explores public support for defending Taiwan across Western countries 👇
This is a good summary of what Putin’s proposal means
April 20, 2025 at 8:43 AM
This is a good summary of what Putin’s proposal means