Per Nielsen
@perwagner.bsky.social
Economist and data scientist. Find my substack here: https://perwagner.substack.com
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
youtube.com/watch?v=8qTP...
"i cant imagine...". Again this problem, the complete failure to imagine the new reality we live in.and of cause, then no need to prepare anything
"i cant imagine...". Again this problem, the complete failure to imagine the new reality we live in.and of cause, then no need to prepare anything
How do the Baltics feel about plans for a US "acquisition" of Greenland? | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtube.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:22 AM
youtube.com/watch?v=8qTP...
"i cant imagine...". Again this problem, the complete failure to imagine the new reality we live in.and of cause, then no need to prepare anything
"i cant imagine...". Again this problem, the complete failure to imagine the new reality we live in.and of cause, then no need to prepare anything
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Who had noticed?
After tough negotiations, 24 EU countries decide to borrow 90bn to keep Ukraine in the fight.
Meanwhile, same period and without many noticing, European farmers hold the EU to ransom and get 100 bn extra on top of already lavish funds.
Priorities??
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
Meanwhile, same period and without many noticing, European farmers hold the EU to ransom and get 100 bn extra on top of already lavish funds.
Priorities??
www.euractiv.com/opinion/the-...
The Brief – Tractors steal a modern EU budget | Euractiv
No matter the crop yields this year, farmers can rest assured that von der Leyen will yield to their demands
www.euractiv.com
January 7, 2026 at 9:09 PM
Who had noticed?
If Trump invades Greenland,NATO is officially dead (maybe;never underestimate the European politicians ability to stick their head in the sand and pretend reality doesn't exist).But what is the actual downside to Trump of this?He doesn't want to be in NATO;He want to work with Russia,not EU. Now,
January 7, 2026 at 7:43 PM
If Trump invades Greenland,NATO is officially dead (maybe;never underestimate the European politicians ability to stick their head in the sand and pretend reality doesn't exist).But what is the actual downside to Trump of this?He doesn't want to be in NATO;He want to work with Russia,not EU. Now,
I don't understand why we believe there will be democratic elections in the US again under Trump.He literally tried to instigate a coup after he lost the last election.Why would anyone believe that he somehow,in the 4 years since then, suddenly became a believer in democracy? Why?
January 7, 2026 at 7:32 PM
I don't understand why we believe there will be democratic elections in the US again under Trump.He literally tried to instigate a coup after he lost the last election.Why would anyone believe that he somehow,in the 4 years since then, suddenly became a believer in democracy? Why?
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Our leaders in Europe are in complete denial of reality.
They are living in another world.
They are living in another world.
January 7, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Our leaders in Europe are in complete denial of reality.
They are living in another world.
They are living in another world.
www.instagram.com/reel/DTLpC7e...
This would probably work, would be real deterrence... And there is 0 % chance that our spineless European politicians will do anything remotely like this.
This would probably work, would be real deterrence... And there is 0 % chance that our spineless European politicians will do anything remotely like this.
drsheikhbjp on Instagram: "Greenland vs. Ramstein: The Ultimate Ultimatum “A Gentle Reminder: Poodles don’t Hunt”Werner Fehlinger, Austria’s NATO enlargement …"
Greenland vs. Ramstein: The Ultimate Ultimatum “A Gentle Reminder: Poodles don’t Hunt”Werner Fehlinger, Austria’s NATO enlargement committee chairman, warning that US annexation of Greenland would prompt Europe to seize American bases from Aviano to Ramstein, framing it as leverage. If US doesn’t leave, what can they do.They must look at Iraq where the parliament has passed multiple resolutions to ouster the American militarily but noting achieved.#Geopolitics #USMilitary #Greenland
www.instagram.com
January 7, 2026 at 3:25 PM
www.instagram.com/reel/DTLpC7e...
This would probably work, would be real deterrence... And there is 0 % chance that our spineless European politicians will do anything remotely like this.
This would probably work, would be real deterrence... And there is 0 % chance that our spineless European politicians will do anything remotely like this.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Meaningful deterrent doesn't have to be military. It could be selling off US state bonds or insisting on dealing only in euros, not dollars.
@oleryborg.bsky.social has written a nice article on options and why they aren't happening, in Danish unfortunately.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
@oleryborg.bsky.social has written a nice article on options and why they aren't happening, in Danish unfortunately.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
Analyse: Trump satser alt på svage europæiske ledere
EU-landene har alle de kort, de skal bruge til at ramme Trump og USA. Spørgsmålet er bare, om EU-lederne har den politiske styrke og vilje til at sætte Trump og USA på plads
www.dr.dk
January 7, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Meaningful deterrent doesn't have to be military. It could be selling off US state bonds or insisting on dealing only in euros, not dollars.
@oleryborg.bsky.social has written a nice article on options and why they aren't happening, in Danish unfortunately.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
@oleryborg.bsky.social has written a nice article on options and why they aren't happening, in Danish unfortunately.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Re-upping my piece on security guarantees & 🇺🇦: Unless Europe has an honest conversation about the real costs of deterring Russia—possible casualties, permanent deployments, & restructured NATO plans—a “coalition of the willing” risks being an uncredible deterrent. foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/10/e...
Europe’s Delusions Over What It Means to Deter Russia
Leaders are afraid to tell voters what it will take to defend their continent.
foreignpolicy.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:14 AM
Re-upping my piece on security guarantees & 🇺🇦: Unless Europe has an honest conversation about the real costs of deterring Russia—possible casualties, permanent deployments, & restructured NATO plans—a “coalition of the willing” risks being an uncredible deterrent. foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/10/e...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Two hard realities persist: The US won't risk war with Russia over Ukraine, and Europeans won't act without the US. This makes any security guarantee fundamentally less credible, regardless of Paris talk details.
January 7, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Two hard realities persist: The US won't risk war with Russia over Ukraine, and Europeans won't act without the US. This makes any security guarantee fundamentally less credible, regardless of Paris talk details.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
🇺🇸 “They campaigned on isolationism. What they're giving us is unprecedented American imperialism.”
@davekeating.substack.com tells #F24Debate how Trump’s interest in #Greenland breaks from his campaign promises.
@davekeating.substack.com tells #F24Debate how Trump’s interest in #Greenland breaks from his campaign promises.
January 6, 2026 at 7:55 PM
🇺🇸 “They campaigned on isolationism. What they're giving us is unprecedented American imperialism.”
@davekeating.substack.com tells #F24Debate how Trump’s interest in #Greenland breaks from his campaign promises.
@davekeating.substack.com tells #F24Debate how Trump’s interest in #Greenland breaks from his campaign promises.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
True European solidarity with Greenland and Denmark would mean a joint military presence, not just letters of support. The U.S. would still win if push came to shove, but the whole idea would be far more unpalatable to the American public. It will never happen, of course. But one can dream.
January 6, 2026 at 7:14 PM
True European solidarity with Greenland and Denmark would mean a joint military presence, not just letters of support. The U.S. would still win if push came to shove, but the whole idea would be far more unpalatable to the American public. It will never happen, of course. But one can dream.
www.reddit.com/r/Denmark/s/...
If we want to deter the US from attacking Greenland,we need clear speak like from this French general.
We need to commit to deterrence BEFORE the invasion... Otherwise it will be too late.
If we want to deter the US from attacking Greenland,we need clear speak like from this French general.
We need to commit to deterrence BEFORE the invasion... Otherwise it will be too late.
From the Denmark community on Reddit: General Michel Yakovleff on Greenland
Explore this post and more from the Denmark community
www.reddit.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:50 PM
www.reddit.com/r/Denmark/s/...
If we want to deter the US from attacking Greenland,we need clear speak like from this French general.
We need to commit to deterrence BEFORE the invasion... Otherwise it will be too late.
If we want to deter the US from attacking Greenland,we need clear speak like from this French general.
We need to commit to deterrence BEFORE the invasion... Otherwise it will be too late.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
4/ In reality, Europe has many levers, financial, economic, and security related. Last but not least, it has military forces that could be deployed to Greenland. The purpose would not be to win a war, but to make a Crimean style annexation impossible
January 6, 2026 at 2:08 PM
4/ In reality, Europe has many levers, financial, economic, and security related. Last but not least, it has military forces that could be deployed to Greenland. The purpose would not be to win a war, but to make a Crimean style annexation impossible
Reposted by Per Nielsen
The EU is not the correct framework for this. You need to start around Denmark and France, who understand that the US is not their friend, and build up from that.
Countries like Germany, Poland and the UK still think Pax Americana can be salvaged. They host large US bases. Short term threat.
Countries like Germany, Poland and the UK still think Pax Americana can be salvaged. They host large US bases. Short term threat.
January 6, 2026 at 2:47 PM
The EU is not the correct framework for this. You need to start around Denmark and France, who understand that the US is not their friend, and build up from that.
Countries like Germany, Poland and the UK still think Pax Americana can be salvaged. They host large US bases. Short term threat.
Countries like Germany, Poland and the UK still think Pax Americana can be salvaged. They host large US bases. Short term threat.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
The American people electing Trump after he staged a coup attempt 5 years ago was a nail in the coffin of our democracy. You can rationalize it all you want - But inflation! But wokeness! - but ultimately it was a societal suicide attempt and probably the dumbest collective voting decision ever made
January 6, 2026 at 2:51 PM
The American people electing Trump after he staged a coup attempt 5 years ago was a nail in the coffin of our democracy. You can rationalize it all you want - But inflation! But wokeness! - but ultimately it was a societal suicide attempt and probably the dumbest collective voting decision ever made
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Maybe the greatest example of the bizarro world in which we now live is that European states are maintaining the dangerous fiction that the US would fight for them, when the more likely use of US military force would be to kick Europe out of Greenland.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
They've made clear their profound hostility to Europe and European values. They've aligned with Russia over Ukraine and on the issue of NATO expansion. And now this - Miller, probably the single most consequential figure in the current administration, escalating on Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 9:56 AM
They've made clear their profound hostility to Europe and European values. They've aligned with Russia over Ukraine and on the issue of NATO expansion. And now this - Miller, probably the single most consequential figure in the current administration, escalating on Greenland.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It's not that NATO will collapse if the US invades Greenland; NATO is already dead. The Trump admin could not have been clearer about that over the last year. They refer to NATO as if they're not part of it. They've been threatening at least 1 NATO ally since they took office.
January 6, 2026 at 9:56 AM
It's not that NATO will collapse if the US invades Greenland; NATO is already dead. The Trump admin could not have been clearer about that over the last year. They refer to NATO as if they're not part of it. They've been threatening at least 1 NATO ally since they took office.
youtu.be/nzAcmc77js8?...
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
German Minister Says Greenland’s Protection Could Be Discussed Within NATO
YouTube video by The Indian Express
youtu.be
January 6, 2026 at 9:52 AM
youtu.be/nzAcmc77js8?...
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
"Greenland will, in principle, be defended by NATO".
But, in practice, it will not. If he was serious about this, he would have left out the "in principle" qualifier.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
"International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it."
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it.
Macron, Starmer and Meloni gave their stamp of approval to Trump's illegal invasion of Venezuela to run the country and take its oil. Who can take them seriously now on Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
davekeating.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:23 PM
"International law died yesterday. And Europe helped kill it."
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
I think @davekeating.substack.com is essential reading these days:
"#vonderleyen completely ignored the fact that international law and the UN Charter had already, undeniably, been violated."
davekeating.substack.com/p/internatio...
Honestly, what would the EU and NATO countries do if the US just took over Greenland? Lets say, not outright annexation, but landing military in all major towns, taking over law enforcement and expelling danish military. Then claiming that they are just protecting Greenland from Russia/China because
January 5, 2026 at 5:47 PM
Honestly, what would the EU and NATO countries do if the US just took over Greenland? Lets say, not outright annexation, but landing military in all major towns, taking over law enforcement and expelling danish military. Then claiming that they are just protecting Greenland from Russia/China because
Reposted by Per Nielsen
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Turns out defending international law in a world of predators is impossible if you don't have sufficient force to defend yourself.
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
January 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM
I'm not one to cite Thucydides all the time, but the saying "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" bears repeating these days.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Europe's decisionmakers should take note.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
4/So what is going on? @segoddard.bsky.social and I argue the confusion is people using old models of global politics. This is not balancing or spheres of influence. It is international politics based on elite cliques rather than national interest i.e. neo-royalism.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org
January 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM
4/So what is going on? @segoddard.bsky.social and I argue the confusion is people using old models of global politics. This is not balancing or spheres of influence. It is international politics based on elite cliques rather than national interest i.e. neo-royalism.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It is not enough to simply say "I stand with the Danish PM".
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
Europe has two months to decide whether it will defend Denmark from US attack
"We'll worry about Greenland in about two months" Trump says after invading Venezuela, as White House policy chief Stephen Miller's wife suggests US occupation of the Danish territory is coming "soon"
davekeating.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
It is not enough to simply say "I stand with the Danish PM".
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
What are European leaders willing to do to defend the Kingdom of Denmark from America?
1st question: will they finally agree to the French plan to station European troops in #Greenland now?
Reposted by Per Nielsen
“In the past years,Cyprus got very close to the US, forming lots of defence relationships with them. That is going to cause tension if we're trying to create an EU that's independent of the US.We have Cyprus leading the EU presidency, and the US is building bases here. This is going to be a tension”
Cyprus’s EU presidency: seeking resilience in a new world order
Cyprus has assumed the presidency of the European Council at a volatile time for Europe, as international peace efforts struggle to end the war in Ukraine, the United States shifts its loyalties and…
www.rfi.fr
January 5, 2026 at 11:53 AM
“In the past years,Cyprus got very close to the US, forming lots of defence relationships with them. That is going to cause tension if we're trying to create an EU that's independent of the US.We have Cyprus leading the EU presidency, and the US is building bases here. This is going to be a tension”