Per Nielsen
@perwagner.bsky.social
Economist and data scientist. Find my substack here: https://perwagner.substack.com/
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
The only sure way to have peace is surrender. Lets not do that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVvgNs8tqI
open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Russian recruitment remains high. Some regions have lowered recruitment bonuses, but this is likely because they have "over recruited" until now and thus focus on balance on the budget. Not indicative of excess financial strain.
Russian recruitment remains high. Some regions have lowered recruitment bonuses, but this is likely because they have "over recruited" until now and thus focus on balance on the budget. Not indicative of excess financial strain.
Russian recruitment and casualties in Q3 / 2025
According to regional data, Russian recruitment is still stable. Several regions lowered their bonuses. Payouts to families of killed soldiers indicate a high rate of Russian losses.
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:02 PM
open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
Russian recruitment remains high. Some regions have lowered recruitment bonuses, but this is likely because they have "over recruited" until now and thus focus on balance on the budget. Not indicative of excess financial strain.
Russian recruitment remains high. Some regions have lowered recruitment bonuses, but this is likely because they have "over recruited" until now and thus focus on balance on the budget. Not indicative of excess financial strain.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Interesting new study shows what I would argue is one of the biggest changes of the last year:
Over 70% of Germans say “What happens on the world stage has (rather) a major impact on my life and my everyday routine.”
Study by @moreincommonde.bsky.social
www.moreincommon.de/wp-content/u...
Over 70% of Germans say “What happens on the world stage has (rather) a major impact on my life and my everyday routine.”
Study by @moreincommonde.bsky.social
www.moreincommon.de/wp-content/u...
November 11, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Interesting new study shows what I would argue is one of the biggest changes of the last year:
Over 70% of Germans say “What happens on the world stage has (rather) a major impact on my life and my everyday routine.”
Study by @moreincommonde.bsky.social
www.moreincommon.de/wp-content/u...
Over 70% of Germans say “What happens on the world stage has (rather) a major impact on my life and my everyday routine.”
Study by @moreincommonde.bsky.social
www.moreincommon.de/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Three hard lessons for European trade
Global trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both.
www.cer.eu
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
A very interesting article by Volyamedia about the personnel losses of both sides and, most importantly, the information comes directly from both fighting armies: teletype.in/@volyamedia/...
Потери меньше, но общая численность ВС РФ прежняя. Список мясника — военные потери сторон на 1 ноября 2025 года
В 2025 году обе стороны несут меньшие потери, чем в 2024-м. При этом количество войск, участвующих в боевых действиях не изменилось...
teletype.in
November 10, 2025 at 8:06 AM
A very interesting article by Volyamedia about the personnel losses of both sides and, most importantly, the information comes directly from both fighting armies: teletype.in/@volyamedia/...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Zelenskyy: "Europe fears the word ‘escalation.’ They believe any response is escalation - but Russia sees non-forceful, intellectual responses as weakness."
This is exactly right. We are at war a thug, or a school bully. Give them something and they will demand more!
This is exactly right. We are at war a thug, or a school bully. Give them something and they will demand more!
November 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Zelenskyy: "Europe fears the word ‘escalation.’ They believe any response is escalation - but Russia sees non-forceful, intellectual responses as weakness."
This is exactly right. We are at war a thug, or a school bully. Give them something and they will demand more!
This is exactly right. We are at war a thug, or a school bully. Give them something and they will demand more!
Reposted by Per Nielsen
"A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent nearly 20 minutes apparently battling to keep his eyes open at the Thursday event." wapo.st/4oTia5k
A closer look at Trump’s apparent struggles to fight off sleep in the Oval Office
A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent nearly 20 minutes battling to keep his eyes open at a recent Oval Office event.
wapo.st
November 8, 2025 at 7:02 PM
"A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent nearly 20 minutes apparently battling to keep his eyes open at the Thursday event." wapo.st/4oTia5k
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Well said. 100% agree!
The reason the EU gets pushed around by the US and China is this: Russian shadow fleet oil tankers operate with impunity in the Baltic, keeping Putin's war machine running. If you want to be feared and respected, you have to confront the challenge right in front of you. Nothing else really matters.
November 7, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Well said. 100% agree!
Reposted by Per Nielsen
“More people could have died in the past week in El Fasher, and this is without hyperbole, than died in the past two years in Gaza,” says Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director at Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, who joins Mehdi remotely.”
zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
Sudan's Death Toll Could Exceed Gaza’s. Here’s Everything You Need to Know
Two experts on Sudan explain how the killing in El Fasher is worse than anyone knows.
zeteo.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:27 AM
“More people could have died in the past week in El Fasher, and this is without hyperbole, than died in the past two years in Gaza,” says Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director at Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, who joins Mehdi remotely.”
zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Maria Popova, McGill University: Russian manipulation of the facts endures because when #JeffreySachs and others tirelessly promote it, opponents politely disagree and the conversation is presented as a debate of equally valid viewpoints. www.policymagazine.ca/when-confron...
When Confronting Russian Propaganda, Truth is Not Optional - Policy Magazine
In late October, Italian Senator Carlo Calenda went viral for bluntly calling economist Jeffrey Sachs a liar. During a debate between the two on the Italian
www.policymagazine.ca
November 6, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Maria Popova, McGill University: Russian manipulation of the facts endures because when #JeffreySachs and others tirelessly promote it, opponents politely disagree and the conversation is presented as a debate of equally valid viewpoints. www.policymagazine.ca/when-confron...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
I just listened to this interview. Highly worth your time if you are interested in the work in a drone unit in Ukraine.
I was just speaking on the best podcast about Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom - Ukraine: The Latest!
I told @FrancisDearnley and @Telegraph about my experiences fighting in Donetsk Oblast and the latest Russian war tactics.
podcasts.apple.com/ua/podcast/...
I told @FrancisDearnley and @Telegraph about my experiences fighting in Donetsk Oblast and the latest Russian war tactics.
podcasts.apple.com/ua/podcast/...
The Ukrainian spy who fooled Moscow & interview with a frontline drone unit commander
Podcast Episode · Ukraine: The Latest · 05/11/2025 · 50m
podcasts.apple.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:48 PM
I just listened to this interview. Highly worth your time if you are interested in the work in a drone unit in Ukraine.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Anders Puck skærper kritikken - han mener FAK-ledelsen er helt fraværende i debatten og at forsvarsministeren gør ondt værre.
»Jeg synes, at det er sørgeligt, at der ikke er nogen af dem, der tydeligt er ude for at gå imod de narrativer, som er ved at bygge sig op,« siger militærforskeren.
#dkpol
»Jeg synes, at det er sørgeligt, at der ikke er nogen af dem, der tydeligt er ude for at gå imod de narrativer, som er ved at bygge sig op,« siger militærforskeren.
#dkpol
Militærforsker er skuffet over minister: Forsvaret er ved at begå »akademisk harakiri« | Berlingske
Anders Puck Nielsen var afdæmpet, da Berlingske mandag afdækkede, hvordan forskerne på Forsvarsakademiet føler sig presset til tavshed af ledelsen. Nu afviser ministeren, at der er et problem, og det ...
www.berlingske.dk
November 6, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Anders Puck skærper kritikken - han mener FAK-ledelsen er helt fraværende i debatten og at forsvarsministeren gør ondt værre.
»Jeg synes, at det er sørgeligt, at der ikke er nogen af dem, der tydeligt er ude for at gå imod de narrativer, som er ved at bygge sig op,« siger militærforskeren.
#dkpol
»Jeg synes, at det er sørgeligt, at der ikke er nogen af dem, der tydeligt er ude for at gå imod de narrativer, som er ved at bygge sig op,« siger militærforskeren.
#dkpol
Reposted by Per Nielsen
One immediate tactical effect of the fall of Pokrovsk would be to extend Russian drone-enabled fire-control along that axis of advance.
November 6, 2025 at 6:57 AM
One immediate tactical effect of the fall of Pokrovsk would be to extend Russian drone-enabled fire-control along that axis of advance.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Now our cowardly European leaders are even letting Trump dictate who they can and can't meet with.
Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will reportedly skip the EU-Latin America summit over fear of angering the US president.
Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will reportedly skip the EU-Latin America summit over fear of angering the US president.
EU Leaders Skip Latin American Summit to Avoid Irking Trump
European leaders including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will skip the EU’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to con...
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Now our cowardly European leaders are even letting Trump dictate who they can and can't meet with.
Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will reportedly skip the EU-Latin America summit over fear of angering the US president.
Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen will reportedly skip the EU-Latin America summit over fear of angering the US president.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Trump removes sanctions against Belarus national carrier, Belavia. Trump removing sanctions against Putin’s proselyte Luka and his family is another indication Trump won’t enforce oil sanctions against Russia!
U.S. Treasury lifts sanctions on Belarusian state-owned airline Belavia and government jet used by Lukashenko’s sons
The move was first announced on Sept. 11 during U.S. envoy John Coale’s visit to Minsk, after which Belarus freed 52 political prisoners.
The move was first announced on Sept. 11 during U.S. envoy John Coale’s visit to Minsk, after which Belarus freed 52 political prisoners.
U.S. Treasury lifts sanctions on Belarusian state-owned airline Belavia and government jet used by Lukashenko’s sons
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has lifted sanctions on Belarus’s state airline Belavia, along with a government-owned Bombardier CRJ-200ER jet with tail number EW-301PJ, according to a Nov. 4 not...
theins.press
November 4, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Trump removes sanctions against Belarus national carrier, Belavia. Trump removing sanctions against Putin’s proselyte Luka and his family is another indication Trump won’t enforce oil sanctions against Russia!
Russian logistics are now using camels.... you read that right, an actual camel,,, and not the type you smoke.
Here's what The Counteroffensive is reading today:
Ukrainian troops rescued a camel used by the Russian military near Russian positions in the Kharkiv region.
Russia adopts low-tech solutions as the war decreases Russia’s hi-tech equipment and highly skilled manpower.
Ukrainian troops rescued a camel used by the Russian military near Russian positions in the Kharkiv region.
Russia adopts low-tech solutions as the war decreases Russia’s hi-tech equipment and highly skilled manpower.
Ukraine rescues camel used by Russian military
Moscow uses camels, horses and donkeys on front line to address stalled advance
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Russian logistics are now using camels.... you read that right, an actual camel,,, and not the type you smoke.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
South Korea's exports to tiny Kyrgyzstan just reached half a billion Dollars in one month. This stuff is obviously not headed to Kyrgyzstan but is going to Russia. The West is guilty of a collective failure on Ukraine: chasing short term profits instead of shutting down autocrats. We must do better.
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Vil lige dele et par tanker om denne historie, som netop nu fylder meget i medierne og adresserer forsknings- og formidlingsfriheden ved Forsvarsakademiet.
...Nu blev de i indbydelsen fra ledelsen opfordret til på forhånd at tænke over, hvordan udtalelser »omkring Forsvarets nuværende og kommende kapaciteter« kan risikere at blive problematiske for Danmarks »signalgivning om afskrækkelse«....
#dkpol #dkforsvar
#dkpol #dkforsvar
Lækket e-mail afslører: Topforskere blev advaret om, at deres udtalelser ikke måtte sætte Danmarks militære afskrækkelse i dårligt lys | Berlingske
Forskerne på Forsvarsakademiet bliver konstant brugt som eksperter i medierne. Men til Berlingske fortæller de, at de bliver presset til at tie eller udtale sig loyalt mod Forsvaret og regeringen. »De...
www.berlingske.dk
November 4, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Vil lige dele et par tanker om denne historie, som netop nu fylder meget i medierne og adresserer forsknings- og formidlingsfriheden ved Forsvarsakademiet.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Many Germans are unhappy about immigration, but it's almost impossible to say this out loud, because you very quickly get called very bad things. So people stay silent and vote for the AfD. The CDU is the last best hope to bring this issue into the political center and take it away from the AfD...
November 3, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Many Germans are unhappy about immigration, but it's almost impossible to say this out loud, because you very quickly get called very bad things. So people stay silent and vote for the AfD. The CDU is the last best hope to bring this issue into the political center and take it away from the AfD...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
In the US, Trump has taken undocumented immigration down to zero and is deporting people. In Germany, the new government has also taken immigration down to zero, but is struggling to deport people in any meaningful size. It's the latter that decides if AfD becomes Germany's biggest party in 2029...
November 3, 2025 at 2:21 PM
In the US, Trump has taken undocumented immigration down to zero and is deporting people. In Germany, the new government has also taken immigration down to zero, but is struggling to deport people in any meaningful size. It's the latter that decides if AfD becomes Germany's biggest party in 2029...
Reposted by Per Nielsen
This is from Autocracy, Inc, about how modern autocratic propaganda works.
I consider this every time I decide what to share and how to frame it.
I consider this every time I decide what to share and how to frame it.
November 2, 2025 at 12:04 PM
This is from Autocracy, Inc, about how modern autocratic propaganda works.
I consider this every time I decide what to share and how to frame it.
I consider this every time I decide what to share and how to frame it.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
Effektfuld helsidesannonce i denne måneds Ud&Se. De færreste af ord forstår et kvæk af, hvad der står, men meningen er ikke til at tage fejl af. Stærk kommunikation af DDUK.
November 2, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Effektfuld helsidesannonce i denne måneds Ud&Se. De færreste af ord forstår et kvæk af, hvad der står, men meningen er ikke til at tage fejl af. Stærk kommunikation af DDUK.
Reposted by Per Nielsen
The fukuyamian mistake we keep making about trumpism and democracy -
November 2, 2025 at 1:03 PM
The fukuyamian mistake we keep making about trumpism and democracy -
Reposted by Per Nielsen
In 2022, Putin launched the largest European invasion since WWII while blaming Ukraine’s distant NATO aspirations. Weeks later, he said Russia had “no problem” with neighbouring Finland and Sweden actually joining NATO. Putin’s problem is evidently Ukrainian independence not NATO expansion
November 1, 2025 at 2:15 PM
In 2022, Putin launched the largest European invasion since WWII while blaming Ukraine’s distant NATO aspirations. Weeks later, he said Russia had “no problem” with neighbouring Finland and Sweden actually joining NATO. Putin’s problem is evidently Ukrainian independence not NATO expansion