moritz
@moritzkapff.bsky.social
studying EPOG | working for OBFA transform @GCF
interested in macrofinance | financing the just transition | geoeconomics
interested in macrofinance | financing the just transition | geoeconomics
Reposted by moritz
Excellent summary of the large body of work @steffenmurau.bsky.social and colleagues have done on the Offshore (US) Dollar Syatem
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@phenomenalworld.bsky.social
Look here for the bigger body of work:
steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@phenomenalworld.bsky.social
Look here for the bigger body of work:
steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...
Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau
Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org
February 8, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Excellent summary of the large body of work @steffenmurau.bsky.social and colleagues have done on the Offshore (US) Dollar Syatem
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@phenomenalworld.bsky.social
Look here for the bigger body of work:
steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@phenomenalworld.bsky.social
Look here for the bigger body of work:
steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...
Reposted by moritz
“Those who want to translate their nativist politics into monetary precepts have failed to reckon with the credit-based, offshore, nature of money today.”
@steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau
Calls to weaken the dollar have become a feature of Trump's second term. But in today's credit-based system, where the US currency is often created offshore, nativist politics cannot be translated int...
www.phenomenalworld.org
February 7, 2026 at 5:34 PM
“Those who want to translate their nativist politics into monetary precepts have failed to reckon with the credit-based, offshore, nature of money today.”
@steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
@steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
Reposted by moritz
Reposted by moritz
I'm don't think we should get too excited about this. Eurodollar structure is dollar assets funded by dollar liabilities. If Europe moves to dump dollar assets it's left with ... large dollar liabilities. Not a great position to be in, particularly if access to dollar swap lines is questionable.
"Guess who is the largest direct investor in the US?"
-- @philippasigl.bsky.social
-- @philippasigl.bsky.social
January 19, 2026 at 10:46 AM
I'm don't think we should get too excited about this. Eurodollar structure is dollar assets funded by dollar liabilities. If Europe moves to dump dollar assets it's left with ... large dollar liabilities. Not a great position to be in, particularly if access to dollar swap lines is questionable.
Reposted by moritz
📝 Our report on the transformation of South Africa’s monetary architecture (1983-2024) co-authored with Mark Swilling for the National Planning Commission of South Africa has been launched last week! 📝
Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...
Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...
December 10, 2025 at 2:05 PM
📝 Our report on the transformation of South Africa’s monetary architecture (1983-2024) co-authored with Mark Swilling for the National Planning Commission of South Africa has been launched last week! 📝
Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...
Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...
Reposted by moritz
We recently published a study on the transformation of the Eurozone architecture (🔗 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...., with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano & @rikereimer.bsky.social) and launched an accompanying interactive online tool (🔗 monetary-architecture.com).
This is how it came to be 👇
This is how it came to be 👇
December 4, 2025 at 3:27 PM
We recently published a study on the transformation of the Eurozone architecture (🔗 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...., with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano & @rikereimer.bsky.social) and launched an accompanying interactive online tool (🔗 monetary-architecture.com).
This is how it came to be 👇
This is how it came to be 👇
Reposted by moritz
📝 New publication 📝
We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 26, 2025 at 11:04 AM
📝 New publication 📝
We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by moritz
📣 News from the OBFA-TRANSFORM project 📣
Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊
That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu
Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊
That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu
November 24, 2025 at 1:21 PM
📣 News from the OBFA-TRANSFORM project 📣
Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊
That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu
Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊
That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu
Reposted by moritz
things are happening in the OBFA-TRANSFORM film studio today... 👀
@steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky
@steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky
November 21, 2025 at 3:37 PM
things are happening in the OBFA-TRANSFORM film studio today... 👀
@steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky
@steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky
Sie können Expertise bündeln, flexibel agieren und den finanziellen Spielraum erweitern, vorausgesetzt, ihre Konstruktion ist transparent, legitimiert und solide fundiert.
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Sie können Expertise bündeln, flexibel agieren und den finanziellen Spielraum erweitern, vorausgesetzt, ihre Konstruktion ist transparent, legitimiert und solide fundiert.
Was heißt das für die Politik? Wenn wir auf Herausforderungen wie Klimakrise, geopolitische Spannungen und technologische Transformation reagieren wollen, sollten bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen wieder stärker in Betracht gezogen werden.
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Was heißt das für die Politik? Wenn wir auf Herausforderungen wie Klimakrise, geopolitische Spannungen und technologische Transformation reagieren wollen, sollten bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen wieder stärker in Betracht gezogen werden.
Zurück zur Geoökonomie:Auch heute könnten solche Einrichtungen genutzt werden, um zusätzlichen finanzpolitischen Spielraum zu gewinnen, entweder als öffentlich-rechtliche Entität oder als Konstruktion zwischen Markt und Staat. Jede Variante hat Vor- & Nachteile & müsste politisch legitimiert werden.
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Zurück zur Geoökonomie:Auch heute könnten solche Einrichtungen genutzt werden, um zusätzlichen finanzpolitischen Spielraum zu gewinnen, entweder als öffentlich-rechtliche Entität oder als Konstruktion zwischen Markt und Staat. Jede Variante hat Vor- & Nachteile & müsste politisch legitimiert werden.
Dafür muss man den Staat als fiskalisches Ökosystem verstehen, bestehend aus Kernhaushalt und bilanzexternen Fiskalagenturen. Er ist dabei keine einzelne Institution, sondern ein komplexes, historisch gewachsenes Gebilde.
👉„Staatsfinanzen jenseits des Kernhaushalts“ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
👉„Staatsfinanzen jenseits des Kernhaushalts“ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Dafür muss man den Staat als fiskalisches Ökosystem verstehen, bestehend aus Kernhaushalt und bilanzexternen Fiskalagenturen. Er ist dabei keine einzelne Institution, sondern ein komplexes, historisch gewachsenes Gebilde.
👉„Staatsfinanzen jenseits des Kernhaushalts“ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
👉„Staatsfinanzen jenseits des Kernhaushalts“ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Gemeinsam mit Armin Haas und @steffenmurau.bsky.social argumentieren wir in einer neuen Studie bei der @swp-berlin.org, dass solche Einrichtungen auch heute wieder eine Rolle spielen könnten:
👉 Link: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
👉 Link: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Mehr Macht, weniger Markt – Denken und Handeln in der geoökonomischen Zeitenwende
Die Rückkehr von Macht auf den Markt ist das Wesensmerkmal einer geoökonomischen Zeitenwende, wie sie die internationale Politik derzeit...
www.swp-berlin.org
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Gemeinsam mit Armin Haas und @steffenmurau.bsky.social argumentieren wir in einer neuen Studie bei der @swp-berlin.org, dass solche Einrichtungen auch heute wieder eine Rolle spielen könnten:
👉 Link: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
👉 Link: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
+++ Neuer Artikel für die SWP +++
🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.
🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
+++ Neuer Artikel für die SWP +++
🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.
🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.
Reposted by moritz
Der US-Dollar verliert an Dominanz. Schlägt die Stunde des Euro?
Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil.
Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️
Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil.
Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️
November 14, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Der US-Dollar verliert an Dominanz. Schlägt die Stunde des Euro?
Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil.
Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️
Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil.
Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️
Reposted by moritz
Da ist der endlich: Der neue Leviathan-Sonderband "Politische Theorien öffentlicher Finanzen - Zur (De-)Politisierung von Geld, Eigentum und Steuern" ist ausgepackt! @nomosverlag.bsky.social www.nomos-shop.de/de/p/politis...
October 24, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Da ist der endlich: Der neue Leviathan-Sonderband "Politische Theorien öffentlicher Finanzen - Zur (De-)Politisierung von Geld, Eigentum und Steuern" ist ausgepackt! @nomosverlag.bsky.social www.nomos-shop.de/de/p/politis...
Reposted by moritz
Was macht nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen wirklich aus? @steffenmurau.bsky.social und @moritzkapff.bsky.social wissen weiter 👇
Nimmt der Staat zu viele Schulden auf? Ob das tragfähig ist, ist eine Frage des Finanzsystems. Das entscheidende Stichwort lautet »Fundierung«, schreiben @steffenmurau.bsky.social und Moritz Kapff.
Hyperinflation durch neue Schulden? 4 Sichtweisen auf nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen
Nimmt der Staat zu viele Schulden auf? Ob das tragfähig ist, ist eine Frage des Finanzsystems. Das entscheidende Stichwort lautet »Fundierung«.
www.surplusmagazin.de
October 31, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Was macht nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen wirklich aus? @steffenmurau.bsky.social und @moritzkapff.bsky.social wissen weiter 👇
Reposted by moritz
Brad of course agrees
Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels.
I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies
Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know
Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels.
I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies
Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know
October 8, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Brad of course agrees
Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels.
I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies
Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know
Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels.
I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies
Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know
Reposted by moritz
It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts.
And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century
And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century
German auto summit tomorrow.
The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today
Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.
But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.
1/
The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today
Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.
But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.
1/
October 8, 2025 at 12:34 PM
It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts.
And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century
And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century
Reposted by moritz
"China is the only large country driving the energy transition at anything close to the necessary speed and scale."
It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability.
Coincidence?
I think not.
It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability.
Coincidence?
I think not.
Chartbook 409 Beyond the "Marshall Plan": China's solar boom as world-changing industrial policy.
In the first six months of 2025 China installed more than 250GW of solar power capacity.
adamtooze.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"China is the only large country driving the energy transition at anything close to the necessary speed and scale."
It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability.
Coincidence?
I think not.
It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability.
Coincidence?
I think not.
Reposted by moritz
Energy sector advantage by continent 2/
September 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Energy sector advantage by continent 2/
Reposted by moritz
Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Scenario on.
Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce.
Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt.
Profligate Germany disciplines France.
Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce.
Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt.
Profligate Germany disciplines France.
September 2, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Reposted by moritz
beantrage vier monate sabbatical um meinem lesestapel hinterherzukommen
September 1, 2025 at 4:30 PM
beantrage vier monate sabbatical um meinem lesestapel hinterherzukommen
Reposted by moritz
CBI is legitimised by 2 arguments. Progressives should defend 1 and keep fighting against 2.
1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly
2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands
1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly
2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands
A lot of us have been struggling to reconcile our criticisms of Fed independence with the fact that defense of the Fed is, at this moment, critical to the defense of liberal government. Tooze’s latest grasps this nettle more firmly than anything else I’ve seen. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
August 28, 2025 at 9:02 AM
CBI is legitimised by 2 arguments. Progressives should defend 1 and keep fighting against 2.
1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly
2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands
1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly
2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands