@leoskyview.bsky.social
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1\ I asked what the trend in Russian:Ukraine KIA ratio would look like if major open source databases + the new Frontelligence assessment were correct. They imply under 1:1 at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but about 5.3:1 in late 2024.
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
Interesting, albeit old, post on Russian oil prices.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
The Cap of Smoke and Mirrors
A closer look at the Russian oil price cap workings
svakulenko.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Interesting, albeit old, post on Russian oil prices.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Republicans are responsible for stopping US funding of Ukraine. Tens of billions of $ of life saving equipment prevented.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Trump said the U.S. is no longer spending money on Ukraine, but earning from it, saying NATO allies are now footing the bill for weapons sent to Kyiv.
November 10, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Republicans are responsible for stopping US funding of Ukraine. Tens of billions of $ of life saving equipment prevented.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
1\ Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) update from Prune.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update
As of November 2025:
The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds:
👉 209.1520 Billion Yuan ( 0 billion)
👉 173.1026 tons of gold (-0.0070 tons)
👉 0 Billion Rubles (-0.4737 billion)
And that’s it.
(Totals for October)
As of November 2025:
The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds:
👉 209.1520 Billion Yuan ( 0 billion)
👉 173.1026 tons of gold (-0.0070 tons)
👉 0 Billion Rubles (-0.4737 billion)
And that’s it.
(Totals for October)
November 10, 2025 at 4:34 PM
1\ Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) update from Prune.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
1\ How many times does this need to be restated?
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says he is ready to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio but insists Moscow will not budge on its demands for ending the war, Reuters reports.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
November 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
1\ How many times does this need to be restated?
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
1\ Russia is growing its mortgage burden again. And the government is subsidising most of the expansion.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
In October 2025 Russians took out a record number of mortgages for the year rising 21% over September and reaching 484 billion rubles. This is due to the slight drop in the interest rate and the fear tightening regulations for mortgages.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8191857
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8191857
Ипотека выбилась в люди
В октябре граждане взяли рекордный объем кредитов с начала года
www.kommersant.ru
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
1\ Russia is growing its mortgage burden again. And the government is subsidising most of the expansion.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Poteru has added 2,150 russian KIA identified by name in the first week of November.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
November 8, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Poteru has added 2,150 russian KIA identified by name in the first week of November.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
Reposted
One year ago Russian army had started their counteroffensive in Kursk area.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
November 7, 2025 at 3:48 PM
One year ago Russian army had started their counteroffensive in Kursk area.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
This is a really good call out.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
November 7, 2025 at 9:40 PM
This is a really good call out.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Reposted
With a wave of new investigations and data expected in November and December, we’re currently running a fundraiser. So far, we’ve raised $863.67 of our $2,500 goal - about 35%. Please consider supporting our work via PayPal, Buy Me a Coffee, or BTC:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
Frontelligence Insight is All Source Public Intelligence
Satellite imagery and other expenses
buymeacoffee.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:49 PM
With a wave of new investigations and data expected in November and December, we’re currently running a fundraiser. So far, we’ve raised $863.67 of our $2,500 goal - about 35%. Please consider supporting our work via PayPal, Buy Me a Coffee, or BTC:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
November 6, 2025 at 4:27 PM
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Nice thread by Jompy on Russian armour refurbishment. They started pulling the oldest, worst condition crap from storage.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
Thread by @Jonpy99 on Thread Reader App
@Jonpy99: 1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-6...
threadreaderapp.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Nice thread by Jompy on Russian armour refurbishment. They started pulling the oldest, worst condition crap from storage.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
Reposted
Ukraine has launched a series of successful large-scale strikes across Russia tonight. As of November 6, multiple hits are confirmed. 🧵Thread:
1. A major fire was caught on video at the Kostromskaya thermal power plant in Volgorechensk, over 730 km from the Ukrainian border.
1. A major fire was caught on video at the Kostromskaya thermal power plant in Volgorechensk, over 730 km from the Ukrainian border.
November 6, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Ukraine has launched a series of successful large-scale strikes across Russia tonight. As of November 6, multiple hits are confirmed. 🧵Thread:
1. A major fire was caught on video at the Kostromskaya thermal power plant in Volgorechensk, over 730 km from the Ukrainian border.
1. A major fire was caught on video at the Kostromskaya thermal power plant in Volgorechensk, over 730 km from the Ukrainian border.
1\ Found a site that claims to show Russian ESPO oil prices. It says they went up after the 22nd Oct sanctions announcement.
$57.27 on the 17th Oct. Rose to over $63.50 on 23rd.
Still need official Argus prices then volume data to be sure.
$57.27 on the 17th Oct. Rose to over $63.50 on 23rd.
Still need official Argus prices then volume data to be sure.
Asia Espo Crude Oil Cash Price - CommoditiesChart
ESPO Crude Oil Cash Price data, recent 16 years (traceable to Dec 01,2009), the unit is USD/bbl, latest value is 62.28, updated at Oct 31,2025
commoditieschart.net
November 5, 2025 at 9:51 PM
1\ Found a site that claims to show Russian ESPO oil prices. It says they went up after the 22nd Oct sanctions announcement.
$57.27 on the 17th Oct. Rose to over $63.50 on 23rd.
Still need official Argus prices then volume data to be sure.
$57.27 on the 17th Oct. Rose to over $63.50 on 23rd.
Still need official Argus prices then volume data to be sure.
1\ Putin signed Russia's new budget law. 5.8tr rub deficit versus 1.2tr in original plan. And the 1.8tr National Wealth Fund savings deposit is cancelled as expected.
It seems like over 500bn rub extra deficit is due to higher interest rates on subsidised mortgages. Finance costs matter.
It seems like over 500bn rub extra deficit is due to higher interest rates on subsidised mortgages. Finance costs matter.
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
1\ Putin signed Russia's new budget law. 5.8tr rub deficit versus 1.2tr in original plan. And the 1.8tr National Wealth Fund savings deposit is cancelled as expected.
It seems like over 500bn rub extra deficit is due to higher interest rates on subsidised mortgages. Finance costs matter.
It seems like over 500bn rub extra deficit is due to higher interest rates on subsidised mortgages. Finance costs matter.
1\ I now realise Bloomberg reporting on Russian oil prices prob averages over 4 weeks. So we can't pull out sanctions effect yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
November 4, 2025 at 4:33 PM
1\ I now realise Bloomberg reporting on Russian oil prices prob averages over 4 weeks. So we can't pull out sanctions effect yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
1\ Azeri news reports that Russian Urals oil prices increased by $5.23/barrel or ~10% following the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions announcement. (calculated from 21st to 24th Oct)
Unless there's a large reduction in sales volume to offset the price rise, Russia's oil income for the war will go up.
Unless there's a large reduction in sales volume to offset the price rise, Russia's oil income for the war will go up.
November 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
1\ Azeri news reports that Russian Urals oil prices increased by $5.23/barrel or ~10% following the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions announcement. (calculated from 21st to 24th Oct)
Unless there's a large reduction in sales volume to offset the price rise, Russia's oil income for the war will go up.
Unless there's a large reduction in sales volume to offset the price rise, Russia's oil income for the war will go up.
1\ A possibility: buyers rushed to "lock in" Russian oil before Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions on 21st Nov.
That could temporarily prop up deliveries + prices.
If the sanctions work, we'd then see a drop after.
It could be weeks-to-months before we know if the sanctions worked.
That could temporarily prop up deliveries + prices.
If the sanctions work, we'd then see a drop after.
It could be weeks-to-months before we know if the sanctions worked.
India's Russian crude imports set to jump before sanctions
www.qcintel.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:31 PM
1\ A possibility: buyers rushed to "lock in" Russian oil before Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions on 21st Nov.
That could temporarily prop up deliveries + prices.
If the sanctions work, we'd then see a drop after.
It could be weeks-to-months before we know if the sanctions worked.
That could temporarily prop up deliveries + prices.
If the sanctions work, we'd then see a drop after.
It could be weeks-to-months before we know if the sanctions worked.
Azeri news source: "URALS oil averaged $52.72 per barrel, up $1.39, or 2.7 percent, from last week."
3 weeks ago Bloomberg reported ~$53.50.
A clean comparison of the weeks before/after the US sanctions announcement suggest no strong effect on Russian oil prices so far.
3 weeks ago Bloomberg reported ~$53.50.
A clean comparison of the weeks before/after the US sanctions announcement suggest no strong effect on Russian oil prices so far.
Weekly review of Azerbaijani oil prices
www.trend.az
November 2, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Azeri news source: "URALS oil averaged $52.72 per barrel, up $1.39, or 2.7 percent, from last week."
3 weeks ago Bloomberg reported ~$53.50.
A clean comparison of the weeks before/after the US sanctions announcement suggest no strong effect on Russian oil prices so far.
3 weeks ago Bloomberg reported ~$53.50.
A clean comparison of the weeks before/after the US sanctions announcement suggest no strong effect on Russian oil prices so far.
1\ China is a big player in world oil demand, and therefore funding Russia's war. Interesting things to watch (1) WSJ reports they've been supposedly stockpiling >1 million barrels/day and (2) Carbonbrief reports over half of their car sales were hybrid/electric by mid-2024.
November 2, 2025 at 8:29 PM
1\ China is a big player in world oil demand, and therefore funding Russia's war. Interesting things to watch (1) WSJ reports they've been supposedly stockpiling >1 million barrels/day and (2) Carbonbrief reports over half of their car sales were hybrid/electric by mid-2024.
1\ Bloomberg's weekly update on Russian oil exports should be very useful when it comes out on the 4th November.
It will help us work out whether the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have increased or decreased Russian oil income.
IMO it'll be months before we're sure still.
It will help us work out whether the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have increased or decreased Russian oil income.
IMO it'll be months before we're sure still.
November 2, 2025 at 8:05 PM
1\ Bloomberg's weekly update on Russian oil exports should be very useful when it comes out on the 4th November.
It will help us work out whether the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have increased or decreased Russian oil income.
IMO it'll be months before we're sure still.
It will help us work out whether the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have increased or decreased Russian oil income.
IMO it'll be months before we're sure still.
October 2025 is the record for Russian war obituaries found by Poteru.
Top 3 by KIA/day: 👉Oct '25 (299) 👉Sep '25 (271) 👉Dec '24 (203). Total KIA/month: 👉Oct '25 (9,257)👉Sep '25 (8,121)👉Dec '24 (6,297).
(this is only a fraction of dead Russians. Those found now could be from months ago).
Top 3 by KIA/day: 👉Oct '25 (299) 👉Sep '25 (271) 👉Dec '24 (203). Total KIA/month: 👉Oct '25 (9,257)👉Sep '25 (8,121)👉Dec '24 (6,297).
(this is only a fraction of dead Russians. Those found now could be from months ago).
November 1, 2025 at 5:18 PM
October 2025 is the record for Russian war obituaries found by Poteru.
Top 3 by KIA/day: 👉Oct '25 (299) 👉Sep '25 (271) 👉Dec '24 (203). Total KIA/month: 👉Oct '25 (9,257)👉Sep '25 (8,121)👉Dec '24 (6,297).
(this is only a fraction of dead Russians. Those found now could be from months ago).
Top 3 by KIA/day: 👉Oct '25 (299) 👉Sep '25 (271) 👉Dec '24 (203). Total KIA/month: 👉Oct '25 (9,257)👉Sep '25 (8,121)👉Dec '24 (6,297).
(this is only a fraction of dead Russians. Those found now could be from months ago).
A Bloomberg headline says the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions made Russian oil prices drop.
But the article's quoted data say that Russian oil prices actually went up.
Yes they lost $1.50 vs Brent, but Brent increased by over $3. Did the new sanctions *increase* Russian oil $? Too soon to tell.
But the article's quoted data say that Russian oil prices actually went up.
Yes they lost $1.50 vs Brent, but Brent increased by over $3. Did the new sanctions *increase* Russian oil $? Too soon to tell.
11\ Implication:
👉ESPO was $1 more than Brent pre-sanctions. Brent was $61, so... ESPO was $62?
👉ESPO was $0.50 less than Brent after sanctions. Brent was $64, so... ESPO was $63.50?
Bloomberg article numbers imply Russian prices went up. Their headline says they went down. Wtf?
👉ESPO was $1 more than Brent pre-sanctions. Brent was $61, so... ESPO was $62?
👉ESPO was $0.50 less than Brent after sanctions. Brent was $64, so... ESPO was $63.50?
Bloomberg article numbers imply Russian prices went up. Their headline says they went down. Wtf?
October 31, 2025 at 9:52 PM
A Bloomberg headline says the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions made Russian oil prices drop.
But the article's quoted data say that Russian oil prices actually went up.
Yes they lost $1.50 vs Brent, but Brent increased by over $3. Did the new sanctions *increase* Russian oil $? Too soon to tell.
But the article's quoted data say that Russian oil prices actually went up.
Yes they lost $1.50 vs Brent, but Brent increased by over $3. Did the new sanctions *increase* Russian oil $? Too soon to tell.
1\ Anyone got Argus Media Urals/ESPO oil prices? Public reporting I've found isn't enough to even tell if Russia is getting more or less oil profits than before sanctions were announced.
Seriously, the reporting on this is so confusing.
I'm even semi-convinced Russia is getting *more* money.
Seriously, the reporting on this is so confusing.
I'm even semi-convinced Russia is getting *more* money.
October 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
1\ Anyone got Argus Media Urals/ESPO oil prices? Public reporting I've found isn't enough to even tell if Russia is getting more or less oil profits than before sanctions were announced.
Seriously, the reporting on this is so confusing.
I'm even semi-convinced Russia is getting *more* money.
Seriously, the reporting on this is so confusing.
I'm even semi-convinced Russia is getting *more* money.
This is interesting.
Clarification: it's 300-400bn ROUBLES (up to ~$5bn with current rates). Noel did a little typo with a ¥ symbol, which would have meant ~$56bn.
Clarification: it's 300-400bn ROUBLES (up to ~$5bn with current rates). Noel did a little typo with a ¥ symbol, which would have meant ~$56bn.
For the first time, Russia will borrow in Chinese yuan to plug its ballooning budget deficit, Reuters reports. The finance ministry plans to issue ¥300-400 billion worth of yuan-denominated bonds domestically, after failing for over a decade to secure favorable terms from Beijing.
October 31, 2025 at 3:28 PM
This is interesting.
Clarification: it's 300-400bn ROUBLES (up to ~$5bn with current rates). Noel did a little typo with a ¥ symbol, which would have meant ~$56bn.
Clarification: it's 300-400bn ROUBLES (up to ~$5bn with current rates). Noel did a little typo with a ¥ symbol, which would have meant ~$56bn.