Ukraine War Brief Podcast
@ukrainewarpod.bsky.social
Rob Gaudette on Twitter. Hosted by a Ukrainian and produced by an American with a PharmD. thepeoplesmedia.substack.com
Pinned
If I use an estimated 6 trillion ruble deficit—instead of the “very optimistic” 3.8 trillion rubles currently under consideration—the gap is even more profound.
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The Beriev Aircraft Factory in Taganrog reported a 5 billion rubles net loss for 2025 after a 1,19 billion rubles in profit in 2024. The war isn't making Russia's armaments factories profitable.
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/taganro...
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/taganro...
Таганрогский авиазавод завершил 2025 год с убытком более 5 млрд рублей
Финансовые показатели предприятия резко ухудшились после прибыльного 2024 года
bloknot-rostov.ru
February 14, 2026 at 9:22 PM
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I found this very niche podcast episode and wanted to share. It’s the history of the Russian economy from 1640s - present. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Russia still had serfs (slaves) in the 1860s!
youtu.be/MIiFwWdWBKY?...
Russia still had serfs (slaves) in the 1860s!
youtu.be/MIiFwWdWBKY?...
History of the Russian Economy | Marginal Babble Ep.28 with Professor Richard Ericson
YouTube video by Marginal Babble
youtu.be
February 14, 2026 at 9:21 PM
I found this very niche podcast episode and wanted to share. It’s the history of the Russian economy from 1640s - present. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Russia still had serfs (slaves) in the 1860s!
youtu.be/MIiFwWdWBKY?...
Russia still had serfs (slaves) in the 1860s!
youtu.be/MIiFwWdWBKY?...
Sapiens dominabitur astris!
HUR special units in close-quarters combat with Russian occupiers. Footage captures strikes on positions, equipment and ground drones along the front.
February 13, 2026 at 8:52 AM
Sapiens dominabitur astris!
Cash is being withdrawn from the Russian banking system at a rate higher than in 2025 and 2024.
February 13, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Cash is being withdrawn from the Russian banking system at a rate higher than in 2025 and 2024.
The Bank of Russia’s business climate indices are negative or trending negative.
February 13, 2026 at 4:04 AM
The Bank of Russia’s business climate indices are negative or trending negative.
Inflation is sky-high in Russia, according to official statistics.
February 13, 2026 at 2:36 AM
Inflation is sky-high in Russia, according to official statistics.
🚨 🚨 This is like a five alarm fire for the Kremlin. *India* has started seizing shadow fleet tankers!
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
India Moves Against the Shadow Fleet With First-Ever Tanker Seizures | OilPrice.com
India has seized three oil tankers in its first known action against the shadow fleet, signaling a tougher maritime stance amid Western pressure and a broader pullback from Russian crude.
oilprice.com
February 13, 2026 at 2:29 AM
🚨 🚨 This is like a five alarm fire for the Kremlin. *India* has started seizing shadow fleet tankers!
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...
Follow my Substack for more detailed posts—no character limit!
Here is the record regional budget deficit in 2025 in Russia. This is why, in part, the consolidated budget deficit was over 8.3 trillion rubles last year.
Here is the record regional budget deficit in 2025 in Russia. This is why, in part, the consolidated budget deficit was over 8.3 trillion rubles last year.
February 13, 2026 at 2:03 AM
Follow my Substack for more detailed posts—no character limit!
Here is the record regional budget deficit in 2025 in Russia. This is why, in part, the consolidated budget deficit was over 8.3 trillion rubles last year.
Here is the record regional budget deficit in 2025 in Russia. This is why, in part, the consolidated budget deficit was over 8.3 trillion rubles last year.
The Headhunter Index, a measurement of job applicants vs job openings, reached the worst ever since its inception in 2022. Russia’s job market continues to deteriorate.
February 13, 2026 at 1:58 AM
The Headhunter Index, a measurement of job applicants vs job openings, reached the worst ever since its inception in 2022. Russia’s job market continues to deteriorate.
Perfect, no notes.
February 12, 2026 at 11:48 PM
Perfect, no notes.
The Wall Street Journal reports Urals are trading with a $27 discount to Brent, at $45 a barrel. Well below the $59 required by the budget, and, should Brent prices fall, approaching $20-25 production cost.
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
February 12, 2026 at 11:41 PM
The Wall Street Journal reports Urals are trading with a $27 discount to Brent, at $45 a barrel. Well below the $59 required by the budget, and, should Brent prices fall, approaching $20-25 production cost.
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
Hat tip to @prune602.bsky.social for pointing this out to me. The Bank of Russia says average Russians bought ₽490 billion worth of government bonds in 2025, the largest record.
This figure will be interesting to watch and see how much of the population’s money is used to finance the war.
This figure will be interesting to watch and see how much of the population’s money is used to finance the war.
February 12, 2026 at 10:57 PM
Hat tip to @prune602.bsky.social for pointing this out to me. The Bank of Russia says average Russians bought ₽490 billion worth of government bonds in 2025, the largest record.
This figure will be interesting to watch and see how much of the population’s money is used to finance the war.
This figure will be interesting to watch and see how much of the population’s money is used to finance the war.
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
‼️ Russia: “Nikolai Arefyev, deputy head of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, warned of an impending collapse in production and a mass withdrawal of money from bank accounts by Russians.”
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ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/12/d...
🍿
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/12/d...
February 12, 2026 at 4:39 PM
‼️ Russia: “Nikolai Arefyev, deputy head of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, warned of an impending collapse in production and a mass withdrawal of money from bank accounts by Russians.”
🍿
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/12/d...
🍿
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/12/d...
Ukrainian defense forces struck the "Lukoil-Ukhtaneftepererabotka"refinery in the city of Ukhta, Komi Republic, Russia. The distance from the Ukrainian border is more than 2000 km. 🔥🔥🔥
February 12, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Ukrainian defense forces struck the "Lukoil-Ukhtaneftepererabotka"refinery in the city of Ukhta, Komi Republic, Russia. The distance from the Ukrainian border is more than 2000 km. 🔥🔥🔥
Consensus in Russia is that the central bank will keep the key rate the same tomorrow at 16%.
February 12, 2026 at 9:32 PM
Consensus in Russia is that the central bank will keep the key rate the same tomorrow at 16%.
Yesterday, Russia sold 190 bn rubles worth of government bonds. Perhaps it’s not surprising after the Bank of Russia injected over 4 trillion rubles into the banking system via REPO.
Both the 6 year and 11 year bonds were placed for >15% interest, and 76 bn was sold on the secondary market.
Both the 6 year and 11 year bonds were placed for >15% interest, and 76 bn was sold on the secondary market.
February 12, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Yesterday, Russia sold 190 bn rubles worth of government bonds. Perhaps it’s not surprising after the Bank of Russia injected over 4 trillion rubles into the banking system via REPO.
Both the 6 year and 11 year bonds were placed for >15% interest, and 76 bn was sold on the secondary market.
Both the 6 year and 11 year bonds were placed for >15% interest, and 76 bn was sold on the secondary market.
The Russian electronic budget shows a 3.551 trillion deficit through the first 10 days of February.
February 12, 2026 at 8:25 PM
The Russian electronic budget shows a 3.551 trillion deficit through the first 10 days of February.
I missed this—Russia’s central bank held two REPO auctions, one for 1 week loan period and one for a 1 day loan period.
1 week: 3.230 trillion rubles
1 day: 1.450 trillion rubles
total: 4.68 trillion rubles injected into the banking system.
REPO is supposed to be an emergency mechanism!
1 week: 3.230 trillion rubles
1 day: 1.450 trillion rubles
total: 4.68 trillion rubles injected into the banking system.
REPO is supposed to be an emergency mechanism!
February 11, 2026 at 8:21 AM
I missed this—Russia’s central bank held two REPO auctions, one for 1 week loan period and one for a 1 day loan period.
1 week: 3.230 trillion rubles
1 day: 1.450 trillion rubles
total: 4.68 trillion rubles injected into the banking system.
REPO is supposed to be an emergency mechanism!
1 week: 3.230 trillion rubles
1 day: 1.450 trillion rubles
total: 4.68 trillion rubles injected into the banking system.
REPO is supposed to be an emergency mechanism!
Tomorrow, Ukraine will have indicted 1.25 million casualties upon the Russians.
February 11, 2026 at 8:13 AM
Tomorrow, Ukraine will have indicted 1.25 million casualties upon the Russians.
Hidden unemployment is on the rise in Russia. One sixth of all workers for medium-sized businesses are only partially employed. 🤡
February 11, 2026 at 8:08 AM
Hidden unemployment is on the rise in Russia. One sixth of all workers for medium-sized businesses are only partially employed. 🤡
The share of trade with the outside world in Russia’s GDP has hit the levels of the late 1980s USSR.
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/10/d...
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/10/d...
February 11, 2026 at 7:41 AM
The share of trade with the outside world in Russia’s GDP has hit the levels of the late 1980s USSR.
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/10/d...
ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/10/d...
Evil. How will Ukrainians in the occupied territories vote? How will Ukrainians vote safely under Russian attack? How will Zelenskyy get around the constitutional prohibition on holding elections during wartime?
NEW: Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/50d3...
Zelenskyy plans spring elections alongside referendum on peace deal after US push
Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees
www.ft.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:26 AM
Evil. How will Ukrainians in the occupied territories vote? How will Ukrainians vote safely under Russian attack? How will Zelenskyy get around the constitutional prohibition on holding elections during wartime?
Hard currency income by Russian exporters continues to decline.
February 11, 2026 at 6:56 AM
Hard currency income by Russian exporters continues to decline.
Reposted by Ukraine War Brief Podcast
US HIRING AT RECESSION LEVELS: HIRING RATE AT 3.3%, MATCHING THE 2020 CRISIS AND NEAR A 13-YEAR LOW.
February 11, 2026 at 2:58 AM
US HIRING AT RECESSION LEVELS: HIRING RATE AT 3.3%, MATCHING THE 2020 CRISIS AND NEAR A 13-YEAR LOW.