@leoskyview.bsky.social
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
November 14, 2025 at 5:07 PM
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
3\ And here are the borrowing terms yesterday. The new OFZ-PD has 12.5% coupons, but they had to offer a bit of a discount.
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
3\ And here are the borrowing terms yesterday. The new OFZ-PD has 12.5% coupons, but they had to offer a bit of a discount.
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
2\ Here's the info on the bond that matured yesterday.
7.15% coupons per year.
7.15% coupons per year.
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
2\ Here's the info on the bond that matured yesterday.
7.15% coupons per year.
7.15% coupons per year.
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
November 13, 2025 at 3:48 PM
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
5\ In the BBC article: 62% of those who were missing but are now recognised as dead actually died in 2024. That's a huge fraction, and it means the surge in recognised deaths on Poteru, Gorushko etc is partly from 2024.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
5\ In the BBC article: 62% of those who were missing but are now recognised as dead actually died in 2024. That's a huge fraction, and it means the surge in recognised deaths on Poteru, Gorushko etc is partly from 2024.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
2\ Mediazona explain part of the surge: it's because Russia changed their rules and are now recognising a lot of those who went missing earlier, they're finally turning up as confirmed dead.
en.zona.media/article/2025...
en.zona.media/article/2025...
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
2\ Mediazona explain part of the surge: it's because Russia changed their rules and are now recognising a lot of those who went missing earlier, they're finally turning up as confirmed dead.
en.zona.media/article/2025...
en.zona.media/article/2025...
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
4\ Here's the ORIGINAL plan for 2025. Do you see the line at the bottom? They originally planned to save 1.8 trillion roubles this year to deposit into the NWF in 2026.
November 10, 2025 at 4:34 PM
4\ Here's the ORIGINAL plan for 2025. Do you see the line at the bottom? They originally planned to save 1.8 trillion roubles this year to deposit into the NWF in 2026.
8\ The CBR data on overdue mortgages in Russia look exciting, up almost 120% in a year! But the total amount is still pretty small. And total rate is <1% versus U.S. 30-89 days delinquent rates of ~2% last year.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
8\ The CBR data on overdue mortgages in Russia look exciting, up almost 120% in a year! But the total amount is still pretty small. And total rate is <1% versus U.S. 30-89 days delinquent rates of ~2% last year.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
7\ I'll note that the CBR official debt growth isn't crazy yet. The figure below is NOT inflation adjusted. But now Russia is relying almost entirely on domestic debt for both private and government needs, and government debt demands are soaring.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
7\ I'll note that the CBR official debt growth isn't crazy yet. The figure below is NOT inflation adjusted. But now Russia is relying almost entirely on domestic debt for both private and government needs, and government debt demands are soaring.
3\ Here's the CBR data on outstanding amount.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
3\ Here's the CBR data on outstanding amount.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
2\ From the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) mortgage dashboard. The yellow bars show total volume of mortgages issued monthly, the pink ones are the government-subsidised amounts. ~77% were subsidised in last month of data.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
2\ From the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) mortgage dashboard. The yellow bars show total volume of mortgages issued monthly, the pink ones are the government-subsidised amounts. ~77% were subsidised in last month of data.
5\ Meanwhile, MARKET oil prices dropped during the period you showed too.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
5\ Meanwhile, MARKET oil prices dropped during the period you showed too.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
9\ There's another, different headline you might have seen about Russian oil REVENUES in October. Something like this article.
You might think it's saying the new sanctions have hurt Russia, but it doesn't actually say that. It's a good article.
You might think it's saying the new sanctions have hurt Russia, but it doesn't actually say that. It's a good article.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
9\ There's another, different headline you might have seen about Russian oil REVENUES in October. Something like this article.
You might think it's saying the new sanctions have hurt Russia, but it doesn't actually say that. It's a good article.
You might think it's saying the new sanctions have hurt Russia, but it doesn't actually say that. It's a good article.
8\ And another, but this one just asserts prices fell with no reference to any data, neither the discount nor the price.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
8\ And another, but this one just asserts prices fell with no reference to any data, neither the discount nor the price.
7\ And another, the same thing.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
7\ And another, the same thing.
6\ Here's another example where they said it got cheaper, but referred to the discount. I've suggested a correction to their headline.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
6\ Here's another example where they said it got cheaper, but referred to the discount. I've suggested a correction to their headline.
4\ We want sanctions that mean less money for Russia, instead of more.
It looks like the data say Russia was getting more per barrel right after the sanctions announcement, which I think is bad.
Why is the media saying stuff like the below, which is the opposite to what the data say?
It looks like the data say Russia was getting more per barrel right after the sanctions announcement, which I think is bad.
Why is the media saying stuff like the below, which is the opposite to what the data say?
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
4\ We want sanctions that mean less money for Russia, instead of more.
It looks like the data say Russia was getting more per barrel right after the sanctions announcement, which I think is bad.
Why is the media saying stuff like the below, which is the opposite to what the data say?
It looks like the data say Russia was getting more per barrel right after the sanctions announcement, which I think is bad.
Why is the media saying stuff like the below, which is the opposite to what the data say?
3\ There's a different way of measuring sanctions effect. That's the DISCOUNT, sanctions make Russian oil riskier so Russia has to cut its price *compared with other oil* to attract buyers.
There was a spike in the discount by $1.20 for Urals vs Brent. But the sanctions drove up Brent prices more.
There was a spike in the discount by $1.20 for Urals vs Brent. But the sanctions drove up Brent prices more.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
3\ There's a different way of measuring sanctions effect. That's the DISCOUNT, sanctions make Russian oil riskier so Russia has to cut its price *compared with other oil* to attract buyers.
There was a spike in the discount by $1.20 for Urals vs Brent. But the sanctions drove up Brent prices more.
There was a spike in the discount by $1.20 for Urals vs Brent. But the sanctions drove up Brent prices more.
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
November 6, 2025 at 4:27 PM
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
3\ And here's interfax reporting another 235bn rub for those mortgages.
So we're looking at least 500bn rub above the original plan.
So we're looking at least 500bn rub above the original plan.
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
3\ And here's interfax reporting another 235bn rub for those mortgages.
So we're looking at least 500bn rub above the original plan.
So we're looking at least 500bn rub above the original plan.
2\ Here's the mid-year adjustment from budget.jakluge.de . I believe the majority of that 279bn rub (additional vs original law) is extra mortgage subsidies. Anything with "DOM.RF" in it usually is. There are some other sections with mortgage subsidies, but that's the big one.
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
2\ Here's the mid-year adjustment from budget.jakluge.de . I believe the majority of that 279bn rub (additional vs original law) is extra mortgage subsidies. Anything with "DOM.RF" in it usually is. There are some other sections with mortgage subsidies, but that's the big one.
1\ I now realise Bloomberg reporting on Russian oil prices prob averages over 4 weeks. So we can't pull out sanctions effect yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
November 4, 2025 at 4:33 PM
1\ I now realise Bloomberg reporting on Russian oil prices prob averages over 4 weeks. So we can't pull out sanctions effect yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.
5\ The Bloomberg *article* contains lots of useful info, but not exactly what we need to evaluate the sanctions effects yet.
They also point out useful stuff like the below. Tankers are going, but hiding destination. If the sanctions work, those tankers will be stuck at sea. If not they'll land.
They also point out useful stuff like the below. Tankers are going, but hiding destination. If the sanctions work, those tankers will be stuck at sea. If not they'll land.
November 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
5\ The Bloomberg *article* contains lots of useful info, but not exactly what we need to evaluate the sanctions effects yet.
They also point out useful stuff like the below. Tankers are going, but hiding destination. If the sanctions work, those tankers will be stuck at sea. If not they'll land.
They also point out useful stuff like the below. Tankers are going, but hiding destination. If the sanctions work, those tankers will be stuck at sea. If not they'll land.