@leoskyview.bsky.social
Pinned
1\ I asked what the trend in Russian:Ukraine KIA ratio would look like if major open source databases + the new Frontelligence assessment were correct. They imply under 1:1 at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but about 5.3:1 in late 2024.
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
1\ A bit about Russia refinancing debt. Yesterday they paid off bond which was at 7.15%/year coupons.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Here is my updated table for the Volumes of Constant Coupon Bonds.
NOTE: PD-26229 is maturing tomorrow, so it will be falling off the table in the next update.
NOTE: PD-26229 is maturing tomorrow, so it will be falling off the table in the next update.
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
1\ A bit about Russia refinancing debt. Yesterday they paid off bond which was at 7.15%/year coupons.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
November 13, 2025 at 3:48 PM
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Republicans stopped all new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers when they came into power.
That helped Russia keep tankers running and got more money for Russia's war.
Why did Republicans help Russia like that?
That helped Russia keep tankers running and got more money for Russia's war.
Why did Republicans help Russia like that?
Secretary of State Rubio says the U.S. has nearly exhausted its options for new sanctions against Russia. “There’s almost nothing left to sanction. We’ve already hit their largest oil companies,” he said. The focus now shifts to enforcing existing sanctions and targeting Russia’s shadow fleet.
November 13, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Republicans stopped all new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers when they came into power.
That helped Russia keep tankers running and got more money for Russia's war.
Why did Republicans help Russia like that?
That helped Russia keep tankers running and got more money for Russia's war.
Why did Republicans help Russia like that?
Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
November 13, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
November 12, 2025 at 7:24 PM
1\ like I said elsewhere, pro-Russians will say any words they think will achieve their goals: justify less aid for Ukraine, so more Ukrainians die, and Russia can continue the war and hope to win.
That has been the open republican policy since late 2023 when they started blockading Ukraine funding
That has been the open republican policy since late 2023 when they started blockading Ukraine funding
Pete Hegseth:
If America is going to have to take the primary burden of what happens in the Indo-Pacific&deterring China,then Europe needs to be prepared to step up in its own continent&ensure that forces like Russia or others are checked properly.It's common sense -you can't be everywhere.
If America is going to have to take the primary burden of what happens in the Indo-Pacific&deterring China,then Europe needs to be prepared to step up in its own continent&ensure that forces like Russia or others are checked properly.It's common sense -you can't be everywhere.
November 12, 2025 at 6:26 PM
1\ like I said elsewhere, pro-Russians will say any words they think will achieve their goals: justify less aid for Ukraine, so more Ukrainians die, and Russia can continue the war and hope to win.
That has been the open republican policy since late 2023 when they started blockading Ukraine funding
That has been the open republican policy since late 2023 when they started blockading Ukraine funding
Huge Russian borrowing 2025-11-12.
Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles):
Borrowed = ~6220bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 6
Amount needed = 761bn
Needed weekly = 127bn
Proceeds this week = 1754bn
Average yield undefined because it was almost entirely variable rate bonds.
Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles):
Borrowed = ~6220bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 6
Amount needed = 761bn
Needed weekly = 127bn
Proceeds this week = 1754bn
Average yield undefined because it was almost entirely variable rate bonds.
Russia borrowing after 2025-10-19 auction+AP.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Total borrowed = ~4468bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 7
Amount needed = ~2513bn
Needed per week = ~359bn
Proceeds this week = ~185bn
Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Total borrowed = ~4468bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 7
Amount needed = ~2513bn
Needed per week = ~359bn
Proceeds this week = ~185bn
Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.
Russia borrowing update after 2025-10-22 auction+AP.
Total borrowed = ~4284bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 8
Amount needed = ~2697bn
Needed per week = ~337bn
Proceeds this week = ~104bn
Yields ~15.1%, a bit lower than earlier Oct.
Total borrowed = ~4284bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 8
Amount needed = ~2697bn
Needed per week = ~337bn
Proceeds this week = ~104bn
Yields ~15.1%, a bit lower than earlier Oct.
November 12, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Huge Russian borrowing 2025-11-12.
Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles):
Borrowed = ~6220bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 6
Amount needed = 761bn
Needed weekly = 127bn
Proceeds this week = 1754bn
Average yield undefined because it was almost entirely variable rate bonds.
Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles):
Borrowed = ~6220bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 6
Amount needed = 761bn
Needed weekly = 127bn
Proceeds this week = 1754bn
Average yield undefined because it was almost entirely variable rate bonds.
Reposted
09.11.25 Russians, presumably marines, attacked Ukrainian positions near Volodymyrivka, Pokrovsk direction.
Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual) they tried to breakthrough but were destroyed.
They suffered the next losses:
• 3 BTR-82AT;
• 1 BMP-3;
• 3 turtle tanks
Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual) they tried to breakthrough but were destroyed.
They suffered the next losses:
• 3 BTR-82AT;
• 1 BMP-3;
• 3 turtle tanks
November 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
09.11.25 Russians, presumably marines, attacked Ukrainian positions near Volodymyrivka, Pokrovsk direction.
Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual) they tried to breakthrough but were destroyed.
They suffered the next losses:
• 3 BTR-82AT;
• 1 BMP-3;
• 3 turtle tanks
Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual) they tried to breakthrough but were destroyed.
They suffered the next losses:
• 3 BTR-82AT;
• 1 BMP-3;
• 3 turtle tanks
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
Reposted
Hello everyone, friends, followers, and supporters of Ukraine
I'm starting a new fundraiser for $120,000 to help Ukraine with engineering equipment, heavy trucks with cranes, and excavators
Please watch the video and read to understand why this matters
donation link www.paypal.com/donate?campa...
I'm starting a new fundraiser for $120,000 to help Ukraine with engineering equipment, heavy trucks with cranes, and excavators
Please watch the video and read to understand why this matters
donation link www.paypal.com/donate?campa...
Engineering Equipment for Ukraine
Help Liberty Ukraine Foundation reach their goal by donating or sharing with your friends.
www.paypal.com
November 11, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Hello everyone, friends, followers, and supporters of Ukraine
I'm starting a new fundraiser for $120,000 to help Ukraine with engineering equipment, heavy trucks with cranes, and excavators
Please watch the video and read to understand why this matters
donation link www.paypal.com/donate?campa...
I'm starting a new fundraiser for $120,000 to help Ukraine with engineering equipment, heavy trucks with cranes, and excavators
Please watch the video and read to understand why this matters
donation link www.paypal.com/donate?campa...
1\ arussia reported a 4.19tr rub Jan-Oct deficit, within 5% of my central 4.4tr projection.
They needed 3.9tr or below to be on course for their new budget plan.
There were monthly drops Vs 2024 in expenses, oil&gas revenue AND other revenue.
They needed 3.9tr or below to be on course for their new budget plan.
There were monthly drops Vs 2024 in expenses, oil&gas revenue AND other revenue.
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
November 11, 2025 at 5:54 PM
1\ arussia reported a 4.19tr rub Jan-Oct deficit, within 5% of my central 4.4tr projection.
They needed 3.9tr or below to be on course for their new budget plan.
There were monthly drops Vs 2024 in expenses, oil&gas revenue AND other revenue.
They needed 3.9tr or below to be on course for their new budget plan.
There were monthly drops Vs 2024 in expenses, oil&gas revenue AND other revenue.
1\ We're still waiting to see the effect of the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions on Russian oil money.
Data are pointing in different directions before they enter force on 21st Nov.
Data are pointing in different directions before they enter force on 21st Nov.
November 11, 2025 at 5:01 PM
1\ We're still waiting to see the effect of the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions on Russian oil money.
Data are pointing in different directions before they enter force on 21st Nov.
Data are pointing in different directions before they enter force on 21st Nov.
1\ Damn it. Janis Kluge found evidence of the bad case I talked about here
bsky.app/profile/leos...
Russia cut some recruitment bonuses because it had more than enough men signing up in those regions.
bsky.app/profile/leos...
Russia cut some recruitment bonuses because it had more than enough men signing up in those regions.
My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are "recruitment overachievers" who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets. Read more here: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...
November 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
1\ Damn it. Janis Kluge found evidence of the bad case I talked about here
bsky.app/profile/leos...
Russia cut some recruitment bonuses because it had more than enough men signing up in those regions.
bsky.app/profile/leos...
Russia cut some recruitment bonuses because it had more than enough men signing up in those regions.
Interesting, albeit old, post on Russian oil prices.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
The Cap of Smoke and Mirrors
A closer look at the Russian oil price cap workings
svakulenko.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Interesting, albeit old, post on Russian oil prices.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.
Republicans are responsible for stopping US funding of Ukraine. Tens of billions of $ of life saving equipment prevented.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Trump said the U.S. is no longer spending money on Ukraine, but earning from it, saying NATO allies are now footing the bill for weapons sent to Kyiv.
November 10, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Republicans are responsible for stopping US funding of Ukraine. Tens of billions of $ of life saving equipment prevented.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
Putin's dream result.
Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.
1\ Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) update from Prune.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
‼️ 🇷🇺 NWF Update
As of November 2025:
The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds:
👉 209.1520 Billion Yuan ( 0 billion)
👉 173.1026 tons of gold (-0.0070 tons)
👉 0 Billion Rubles (-0.4737 billion)
And that’s it.
(Totals for October)
As of November 2025:
The liquid portion of the Russian National Welfare Fund holds:
👉 209.1520 Billion Yuan ( 0 billion)
👉 173.1026 tons of gold (-0.0070 tons)
👉 0 Billion Rubles (-0.4737 billion)
And that’s it.
(Totals for October)
November 10, 2025 at 4:34 PM
1\ Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) update from Prune.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025.
All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.
1\ How many times does this need to be restated?
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says he is ready to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio but insists Moscow will not budge on its demands for ending the war, Reuters reports.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
November 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM
1\ How many times does this need to be restated?
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative".
Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.
1\ Russia is growing its mortgage burden again. And the government is subsidising most of the expansion.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
In October 2025 Russians took out a record number of mortgages for the year rising 21% over September and reaching 484 billion rubles. This is due to the slight drop in the interest rate and the fear tightening regulations for mortgages.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8191857
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8191857
Ипотека выбилась в люди
В октябре граждане взяли рекордный объем кредитов с начала года
www.kommersant.ru
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
1\ Russia is growing its mortgage burden again. And the government is subsidising most of the expansion.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts.
Rambly thread to show gathered data.
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
November 8, 2025 at 11:08 PM
1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.
Poteru has added 2,150 russian KIA identified by name in the first week of November.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
November 8, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Poteru has added 2,150 russian KIA identified by name in the first week of November.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
👉2022: 15k
👉2023: 32k
👉2024: 50k
👉2025: 57k so far
On course for ~70k in 2025.
Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.
Reposted
One year ago Russian army had started their counteroffensive in Kursk area.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
November 7, 2025 at 3:48 PM
One year ago Russian army had started their counteroffensive in Kursk area.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us.
Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.
This is a really good call out.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
November 7, 2025 at 9:40 PM
This is a really good call out.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination.
If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.
Reposted
With a wave of new investigations and data expected in November and December, we’re currently running a fundraiser. So far, we’ve raised $863.67 of our $2,500 goal - about 35%. Please consider supporting our work via PayPal, Buy Me a Coffee, or BTC:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
Frontelligence Insight is All Source Public Intelligence
Satellite imagery and other expenses
buymeacoffee.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:49 PM
With a wave of new investigations and data expected in November and December, we’re currently running a fundraiser. So far, we’ve raised $863.67 of our $2,500 goal - about 35%. Please consider supporting our work via PayPal, Buy Me a Coffee, or BTC:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
November 6, 2025 at 4:27 PM
1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr.
3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.
Nice thread by Jompy on Russian armour refurbishment. They started pulling the oldest, worst condition crap from storage.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
Thread by @Jonpy99 on Thread Reader App
@Jonpy99: 1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-6...
threadreaderapp.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Nice thread by Jompy on Russian armour refurbishment. They started pulling the oldest, worst condition crap from storage.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.
For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars.
The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.